The chief economist of China’s Essence Securities, Gao Shanwen, delivered a speech at an internal annual strategy meeting on Wednesday (November 27). Gao predicted that China’s economic slowdown will last several years and that the average annual economic growth between 2020 and 2030 will stay below five percent. Gao was even concerned about whether GDP (gross domestic product) would grow above four percent. He expressed the belief that there are two contributing factors. The first is the impact of the trade war. The second is the stagnation of China’s economic reform as featured by the phenomenon of the “advancement of the state enterprises and the retreat of the private sector.”
Gao added that the government has used strong counter-cyclical measures to prevent the economic downturn. These have barely supported the growth rate at about six percent. However, the stimulus policies are less and less effective. With a weak domestic market, the economy of 2020 doesn’t look good. Although his speech was widely circulated on the Internet, within one day, the content had been completely deleted.
Gao is a well-known economist in China, whose remarks attracted the attention of the Chinese institutional investors and the financial media. In 2016, Gao attended the Economic Situation and Entrepreneurs Forum that Chinese Premier Li Keqiang hosted. Earlier this year, Li Keqiang stated that the target for GDP growth this year was set at 6 percent to 6.5 percent.
Source: Radio Free Asia, December 4, 2019