Skip to content

Infection Count: China’s Infection Number Would Have Been 230,000 by February 20 If It Had Used a More Realistic Infection Definition

A Research Team from Hong Kong University published a thesis in The Lancet Journal, pointing out, “If China had adopted the fifth version of its coronavirus infection definition from the beginning of the outbreak and had sufficient detection capabilities, we estimate that by February 20, China would have reported 232,000 infection cases, rather than the 55,008 it officially announced.”

The thesis also stated that “considering that some infections, especially those mild or asymptomatic infections, can still remain undetected under the most lenient definition, the actual infection count is likely be higher than the estimated number.”

From January 15 to March 3, China issued seven versions of the “Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Treatment Plan,” which covered the case definition, clinical characteristics, and diagnosis. The first version, the most rigid definition, required that the patient must have an epidemiological link to the South China Seafood Market and must have four types of symptoms. The fourth revision started allowing the patients to have an epidemiological link to other regions that had confirmed infection cases, not limited to Wuhan. The fifth revision allowed the doctor to use a clinical diagnosis to decide if the patient was infected.

Their research concluded that the loosening of rigid requirements had a “substantial impact” on the infection count. The infection count increased 7.1 times after switching from the version 1 definition to version 2 and 4.2 times after switching from version 4 to version 5.

Related postings on Chinascope:

Excerpt in Chinese:

香港大学研究团队本周在权威医学杂志《柳叶刀》(The Lancet)发表的论文中指出:“如果第五版病例定义在整个疫情期间得到应用,并且有足够的检测能力,我们估计截至2月20日,中国的确诊病例应为23万2千,而不是中国官方公布的55,008例。”

论文中还指出:“考虑到某些感染,特别是那些轻微和无症状的感染,即使在最广泛的病例定义下,也有可能检测不足,因此实际感染人数仍可能高于目前估计的人数。”

从1月15日到3月3日,中国总共发布了七个版本的《新型冠状病毒肺炎诊疗方案》,其中包括临床病例定义、临床特点、鉴别诊断等内容。

论文指出,在第一版本中,患者需要与武汉或华南海鲜市场有“流行病学联系”,且必须符合四种临床症状才能被确定为疑似病例。从第四版开始允许患者与出现确诊病例的其他地区建立流行病学联系,而不局限于武汉。在诊疗方案第五版中,在湖北省增加了“临床诊断”分类。

港大研究人员表示,不同版本病例定义的变化对确诊病例的数量产生了“实质性影响”。研究发现,从第1版至第2版确诊率增加了7.1倍,从第2版至第4版增加了2.8倍,从第4版至第5版则增加了4.2倍。

Source: VOA, April 23, 2020
https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-coronavirus-cases-may-have-been-four-times-official-figure-20200423/5389124.html