Dr. Li Zuojun, Deputy Director of the Resources and Environment Policy Institute at China’s State Council’s Development Research Center, predicted that, in the second half, the Chinese economy will continue to decelerate and that a major adjustment is possible.
“At the beginning of the year, my take on the 2013 economic growth situation was that the economic growth rate might first increase and then decrease and that, while we might see an upward trend in the first half, in the second half of the year, the economy might experience some downward pressure. The reality is that, in the first quarter, GDP only grew 7.7 percent, lower than last year’s fourth quarter growth. Now it seems the second quarter may be even lower than the first quarter, possibly two percentage points lower. This year the economy will likely be on a continuous downward trend, unless relatively strong stimulus measures are taken to reverse this trend. Nevertheless, right now it appears that the central government’s policy is to tolerate some decline in economic growth in order to pursue efficient and cost-effective growth while preventing systemic regional financial risks. As there is a low probability of strong stimulus measures, [I] do not rule out a major economic adjustment in the third and four quarters.”
Source: Caijing.com, July 23, 2013