Skip to content

All posts by LLD - 6. page

Japan Says China May be Underreporting Increase in CO2 Concentration

Japan’s Ministry of the Environment has questioned the accuracy of China’s reported annual increase in carbon dioxide concentrations. According to Japan’s greenhouse gas observing satellite, IBUKI, China’s annual CO2 concentration increase ranged from 0.6 to 1.2 ppm between 2009-2022. However, international databases calculating China’s emissions based on information published by China, such as fossil fuel consumption and number of power plants, estimate an annual increase of just 0.2 to 0.8 ppm. No such discrepancies were found for Japan and the United States using similar methodology.

Japan claims China’s published information may be inaccurate and will present these findings at the upcoming 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Dubai. A Japanese senior official stated that inaccurate emissions reporting from major emitters like China could undermine global emissions reduction targets, as it skews calculations on progress.

Through satellite observation technology, Japan aims to improve transparency in emissions reporting. Reliable, accurate emissions data is crucial for setting and meeting climate change targets among all nations. Japan intends to keep contributing objective emissions data gathered through satellite monitoring to further emissions transparency, accountability, and broader climate action. The findings question whether China has been forthcoming in reporting its emissions and climate mitigation progress to date.

Source: Radio France International, December 8, 2023
https://rfi.my/AAEy

Economic Bailout with Chinese Characteristics: Controlling Public Opinion on the Economy

China’s economy slowed significantly in 2022 due to multiple headwinds including COVID-19 impacts, strained international supply chains, over-regulation of sectors (e.g. real estate), and weak domestic consumption. Against this backdrop of negative economic news, Chinese authorities have stepped up propaganda efforts and media controls to bolster public confidence.

At a recent meeting, the CCP Politburo stressed the need to “strengthen economic propaganda and public opinion guidance” on the economy. State media like People’s Daily and Xinhua have since published unequivocally-upbeat commentaries, quoting Xi Jinping’s reassurances about progress towards high-quality development and solid progress in overcoming the post-pandemic transition. Such overtly-promotional coverage aims to shape perceptions now that growth has slipped below targets.

Starting in 2021, officials shut down many non-state social media accounts that were speaking negatively about the economy (“black mouth” accounts). In 2022, top finance influencers on the internet – Wu Xiaobo, Ren Zeping and Hong Hao – faced speech bans despite their large numbers of followers. Economic analysts suspect such muzzling of dissenting voices will now further intensify, aiming to suppress doubts about the official claims regarding economic recovery.

Authorities are blaming China’s current economic struggles on external factors like US-China ties and global supply chains. Domestic weaknesses remain apparent – the long-troubled property sector still drags heavily, and Chinese consumers have become thrifty amidst uncertainty conditions.

As 2024 begins, Xi Jinping has clearly prioritized projecting strength and stability regarding growth prospects, given the recent Politburo directive to reinforce propaganda and guidance.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), December 11, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202312110286.aspx

China’s Local Government Debt Soars to $40 Trillion In November; Half of New Issuance is for Refinancing

In the first 11 months of 2023, China’s local governments issued RMB 9.14 trillion (US$1.28 trillion) in bonds, exceeding the RMB 7.4 trillion (US$1.04 trillion) issued throughout all of 2022. Half of the bonds issued this year were used for debt refinancing. The scale of refinancing bonds saw an 82% annual increase to RMB 4.59 trillion (US$643 billion). In contrast, RMB 4.55 trillion (US$637 billion) in new bonds (not for refinancing) were issued, down 4% annually.

Two main factors drove the large increase in refinancing bonds. First, RMB 3.6 trillion (US$504 billion) worth of local government bonds are maturing this year, putting pressure on government finances. Refinancing bonds are helping to repay these old debts. Second, to reduce risk, China’s Ministry of Finance allowed for special refinancing bonds with extended redemption periods. Since October of this year, over 20 provinces/municipalities in China have issued a collective RMB 1.3 trillion (US$182 billion) in these special bonds, far higher than the RMB 200 billion (US$28 billion) issued last year.

By the end of October, 2023, China’s local government debt balance passed RMB 40 trillion (US$5.6 trillion) for the first time ever. This is double the figure from before 2019, when local government debt stood at less than RMB 20 trillion (US$2.8 trillion).

Taiwan’s Central News Agency cited a statement by China’s Ministry of Finance that rapid local debt growth since the pandemic outbreak is related to increased fiscal expansion and local debt scales.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), December 5, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202312050237.aspx

Chinese Media Outlet Bans Use of Translations Not Provided by Xinhua News

South Korean daily newspaper Chosun Ilbo reported that a prominent Shanghai-based Chinese media outlet has banned editors and journalists from quoting foreign media reports translated by outlets other than China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency. The ban was allegedly issued in July after the outlet appointed a new president affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party. Analysts say the move reflects Beijing’s growing efforts to control the flow of information from abroad and convey the leadership’s narrative to the public.

The Chosun Ilbo article argues that this sort of information control is not without precedent in China, citing the security law that led Hong Kong outlets like Sing Tao Daily and Apple Daily to come under Beijing’s influence or cease operations. It represents China cutting off channels for “anti-China public opinion.” According to a Chinese journalist, domestic media can now only do independent reporting on “little things” concerning the country.

The article states that China started blocking the websites of major Western news outlets like Time and The Economist in 2016. Now, domestic media are restricted from citing foreign reports, cutting the flow of outside information into China. Recent years have also seen tight control over state media coverage of Xi Jinping at official events, with only pre-approved CCTV, Xinhua, and compliant outlets granted access. As a result, Chinese media present a uniform, government-sanctioned image of Xi, with only a few vetted experts allowed to comment.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), December 5, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202312050034.aspx

China’s College Graduates to Hit Record High in 2024

Statistics from China’s Ministry of Education show that 11.79 million students are expected to graduate from Chinese colleges and universities in 2024, an increase of 210,000 compared to 2023. This comes at a time when China is facing widespread bankruptcies and layoffs. The Ministry of Education held a meeting with the Ministries of Human Resources and Social Security on December 5th to discuss employment preparations for the record number of graduates.

The Ministry of Education called for an “Action Plan” to promote graduate employment through various measures. It stated that colleges need to equip specialized employment staff, develop market-based employment channels, and continue efforts for college leaders to visit companies to create job opportunities. Other initiatives include expanding the “Ten Thousand Enterprises on Campus Plan” to provide graduates access to more high-quality job information.

On December 5th the Ministry released guidelines with 26 initiatives asking all Chinese universities to make graduate employment a top priority. The notice stressed the challenging economic climate and need for creative solutions to prevent employment difficulties among the high number of graduates. It outlined specific strategies for colleges to realize this goal. These included job fairs, entrepreneurship support, vocational guidance, and tracking graduate employment outcomes.

Source: Radio Free Asia, December 5, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/Xinwen/2-12052023103133.html

Number of Chinese Students in U.S. Drops for Fourth Consecutive Year

According to a Caixin.com report, data shows that the number of Chinese international students studying in the United States has declined for four years in a row. In the past academic year, there were 289,000 Chinese students in the U.S., accounting for 27% of all international students in the country. This represents a small 0.2% decrease compared to the previous year.

The data comes from the Open Doors 2023 report recently published by the Institute of International Education (IIE). The report found that the total number of international students in the U.S. reached 1.05 million last year, a 12% increase compared to the year before. Currently, China remains the top source of international students in the U.S., accounting for 27% of all international students. India is next-largest source, accounting for 25% of international students. While the number of Chinese students dropped slightly year-over-year, the number of Indian students rapidly increased, growing by 35%.

The Open Doors report suggested that several factors could be contributing to the decline in Chinese students studying in the U.S., including geopolitical tensions between the two countries and the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on international student mobility over the past few years.

Source: Radio Free Asia, November 22, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/Xinwen/5-11222023124233.html

Over 3 Million Chinese Take Civil Service Exam in Scramble to Fill Open Government Positions, Setting New Record

There were a record high number of applicants taking this year’s Chinese Civil Service Exam, known as the Guokao. Over 3 million Chinese signed up to take the test, competing for a limited number of job positions the government sector.

On average, there were over 70 candidates competing for every single available position. The most competitive position had 3,572 applicants vying for just 1 opening. Many netizens commented that civil service jobs have become the only viable route for college graduates amid China’s weak economy and grim employment outlook.

Experts say the surge in Guokao applicants is likely tied to post-pandemic economic and hiring difficulties facing China’s private sector. With restaurants forced to slash prices to retain customers and other businesses shutting down, civil service jobs are extremely appealing; they offer stable income and good benefits for life. Some have argued, however, that top talent should not join the government bureaucracy and should instead create value in the private economy.

While economic factors would seem to explain this year’s record high number of exam takers, one researcher cautioned that deeper analysis of candidates’ backgrounds is needed. The increase could also be a “lag effect” from China lifting its zero-COVID policy in 2023.

Besides the record number of Guokao applicants, another noteworthy trend was a reduction in the number of applicants to study at Chinese graduate schools. Chinese youth may now be prioritizing civil service jobs, with all their attendant benefits, over further studies in academia.

Source: Deutsche Welle, November 27, 2023
https://p.dw.com/p/4ZTPO

China’s Pediatric Wards Overwhelmed by Surge in Childhood Respiratory Illnesses

Taiwan’s Central News Agency reported that respiratory illnesses like mycoplasma pneumonia are currently surging across China, leading to overflowing pediatric wards. Many students are taking sick leave from school. In some areas, nearly half the seats in classrooms are empty, and some schools have temporarily suspended classes entirely due to the high rate of absences.

In Jinan, one parent reported that nearly 50% of the approximately 50 students in their child’s class were out on leave. In Hangzhou, over 20 students in one 36-student elementary school class had fevers, leading to a 2-day class suspension. A Shaoxing elementary school saw over 5 students with fevers above 38 C in one class, prompting a 4-day suspension. An entire class in Taizhou also suspended for 5 days due to students taking leave.

Children are presenting with high fevers upwards of 40C (104 F). The spread of influenza, rhinovirus, Mycoplasma pneumonia, respiratory syncytial virus, adenovirus and other pathogens is hard for parents and students to prevent. Some students have returned from leave only to fall ill again with another virus.

Hospitals have been inundated with pediatric cases. Some images have surfaced on social media of children do their homework while receiving IV treatments. Meanwhile, some localities have prohibited teachers from mandating homework completion for sick students and have advised ill teachers and children not to attend school.

Experts predict that this wave of respiratory disease could continue for some time before improving in the spring when warmer weather arrives. The simultaneous circulation of multiple viruses is making it difficult to accurately forecast the end of the surge.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 28, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202311280381.aspx