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Facing the Real World: China’s Law Professor Was Censored

Within less than two hours of posting, China’s social media WeChat removed a 6000-word post by Lao Dongyan, a law professor at “China’s MIT,” Qinghua University. The title of the posting was, “Facing the Real World.” In 2016, Lao was awarded as The Most Influential Young Scholar in China in the area of the Humanities and Social Sciences. In the posting, Lao reviewed 2021 and looked forward to 2022. She did not mention the CCP leaders.

What did she say that led to the ban?

Lao stated, “In a society full of ‘positive energy’ discourse, the sense of uneasiness spreads like a tidal wave throughout society. The pursuit of freedom is often the subject of ridicule. People are increasingly indifferent to, or they even welcome, the increasing concentration of power and the stepping up of various kinds of control in the name of security, and the tightened rule over society using the technology of big data tracking.”

She continued, “Nearly all the catastrophes of the 20th century were caused by institutional evil. The darkness of human nature compounded by an evil system has repeatedly led to unimaginable tragedies.”  “Be prepared to be interviewed if you publish a diary documenting your daily life under the epidemic. If you show solidarity with a colleague who was expelled for his classroom speech, you may even face the experience of ‘being mentally ill.’”

Lao wrote that her “original intention to promote the rule of law in China has turned out to be pure wishful thinking.” She noted that today the theoretical vision of the rule of law and the actual practice of the rule of law are increasingly running in opposite directions. “What is even more absurd about this is that many of those who have been put in chains are not only not angry about losing their freedoms but they are actually quite comfortable with it. They are like frogs being boiled in increasingly warm water.” “It can be said that many people, including myself, choose just to bear it and retreat, thereby enabling evil people to continue to do evil with impunity. In a sense, we are responsible by our passive inaction and for the deterioration of our environment since we choose to tolerate it and even beat a retreat in the face of it.”

Finally, facing the real world, Lao concluded with a quote from J.K. Rowling’s commencement address at Harvard University. “If you choose to use your status and influence to raise your voice on behalf of those who have no voice; if you choose to identify not only with the powerful, but with the powerless; if you retain the ability to imagine yourself being in the lives of those who do not have your advantages, then it will not only be your proud families who celebrate your existence, but thousands and millions of people whose reality you have helped change.’ In my opinion, this is the real ‘positive energy.’ May you and I have such ‘positive energy.’”

Source: China Digital Times, January 29, 2022

【404文库】劳燕东飞|直面真实的世界

Full text of English translation, https://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2022/01/29/2022-chinese-law-profs-lament-and-encouragement/

China’s Residential Foreclosures Are Spiking

Chinascope recently reported that 200,000 people in China stopped making their mortgage payments (See:  http://chinascope.org/archives/28823).  On January 14, 2022, Professor Han Fuling from the School of Finance of the Central University of Finance and Economics posted on Weibo, “At the beginning of 2022, the four major banks sued 200,000 owners for defaulting on their mortgages.” Weibo has since removed the posting.  The four major banks are the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the Agricultural Bank of China, the Bank of China, and the Construction Bank.

Since the beginning of 2022, there has been more news about defaults and foreclosures of residential houses in China.

All Foreclosure Auctions are well-known online auction platforms in China.  As of January 30, 2022, 1.72 million court-ordered foreclosures of residential houses were placed on the auction list.

In 2017, the number of foreclosure houses was 9,000; in 2018 it was 20,000; in 2019, 500,000; in 2020, more than 1.2 million. As of mid-December 2021, foreclosure houses in China hit a record high at over 1.68 million.

Among them, Jiangsu Province ranked first with 209,900 units, Zhejiang ranked second with 179,300 units, and Henan, Guangdong, and Shandong ranked third, fourth, and fifth.

While these are cumulative numbers, not net annual increases, an unprecedented spike is happening in foreclosures of residential houses.

Source: Xinhua Daily Media Group, January 17, 2022

http://www.xhby.net/fc/xwzx/202201/t20220117_7388962.shtml

China’s Population Sees the Slowest Growth in Decades

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total population in mainland China, excluding foreigners, was 1.41 billion people as of the end of 2021, an increase of 480,000 people compared to 2020.

There were 10.62 million newborns and 10.14 million deaths. The natural population growth rate was therefore 0.034 percent for 2021.

Analysts in China observed that the number of newborns in China in 2021 was the lowest since 1949, and the birth rate was the lowest on record.

A moderate forecast for the future trend of China’s population assumes China spends 1 to 3 percent of its annual GDP on incentivizing women to have more children, which is the average spending rate of developed countries. In that case, China’s newborns will drop to below 10 million in the next two or three years, down to 773,000 in 2050 and 306,000 in 2100. Currently, China’s newborns are half that of India. The rate will be one-third of India’s by 2050 and less than one-quarter of India’s by 2100. According to this moderate forecast, China’s newborns will be overtaken by the United States in 2083 and will be two-thirds of the United States in 2100. While China’s total population is more than four times that of the United States, the number of newborns will be overtaken by the United States in two generations, showing the population’s rapid depletion.

Sources:
China National Bureau of Statistics, January 17, 2022
http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202201/t20220117_1826404.html
iFeng.com, January 17, 2022
https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8CssztQSfpL
Caixin, December 14, 2021
https://opinion.caixin.com/2021-12-14/101817400.html

Chinese Economist Banned from Weibo Due to Comments on Financing Childbirths

China has banned the Twitter-like Weibo account of Ren Zeping, an Internet celebrity, and a former economist in mainland China. Ren was also the chief economist for Evergrande China Group, one of China’s largest real estate developers, which is now mired in debt.

At the top of Ren’s Weibo account, the notice said he had “violated relevant laws and regulations.”

What had Ren posted on his Weibo account?

On January 10, 2022, Ren posted an article titled, “The Solution to Findings of Low Fertility — The China Fertility Report.” His article stated that the main reasons for low fertility are the high cost of raising children and high housing prices. Therefore to solve the low fertility rate, China must reduce the cost of raising children. Ren believes that establishing a fertility incentive fund may stabilize growth and boost domestic demand in the short term. It can improve the supply side, optimize the population structure, and help national rejuvenation in the long run.

In his post, Ren suggested that the central bank print 2 trillion yuan (US$314 billion) to support the birth of 50 million babies over the next ten years.

Why 2 trillion yuan? Ren explained that family social welfare expenditures related to childbirth incentives account for two to three percent of GDP in OECD countries OECD stands for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. It is is an international organisation that works to build better policies for better lives. China’s GDP is 110 trillion yuan, so Ren believes the incentive fund should be 2 trillion yuan.

Ren’s figure of 50 million childbirths for ten years is an estimate based on the assumption that 15 million babies are required annually to stabilize the population. There are about 10 million per year using the 2021 low fertility rate of 1.1 percent. So 5 million per year for ten years is 50 million in total.

Ren also urged the authorities to establish the fund as quickly as possible. “We must seize the time when we can still have children from those women born from 1975 to 1985 because they still believe that having more children is a blessing. He reminded that the post-90s and post-2000s generation would not want to discuss having a second or third child. Many people are not even willing to get married.

Why was he banned on Weibo? Some speculated that Ren might have hit a nerve with the authorities. The economic strategy proposed by Ren reflects an unspoken consensus among Chinese economists; that is, the regime’s economic model may have come to an end. The regime has tried to control the high housing prices. In the past, China’s inflation and debt risks were mainly absorbed by real estate. Printing money for more childbirths now would likely increase prices and be suicidal. It could push the Chinese economy further into a recession.

Source: sina.com, January 10, 2022
https://finance.sina.com.cn/zl/china/2022-01-10/zl-ikyakumx9364507.shtml

2021: More Small Businesses Folded Than Opened

China has issued updated guidance for businesses that wish to close their doors. In 2021, for the first time in twenty years, small business closures exceeded new openings .

On December 29, 2021, five state agencies jointly issued the “Guidelines for Enterprise Deregistration (Revised in 2021).” The five state agencies are the State Administration for Market Regulation, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration of Taxation.

Before a business officially terminates, the Guideline requires the company must declare its dissolution, establish a liquidation team, liquidate its property, pay taxes, clear up debts, and pay employee wages and social insurance. After the liquidation, the business can deregister and ceases to exist.

The authorities updated the deregistration guideline after the time when many small businesses folded in 2021.

According to the South China Morning Post, in the first 11 months of 2021, about 4.37 million Chinese small and micro businesses closed their doors. That was more than three times the number of small and micro enterprises that opened in the same period.

On average, more than 390,000 small and micro businesses deregistered each month in 2021, compared to 370,000 in 2020. The deregistration in 2021 also outnumbered new registration for the first time in 20 years.

It is predicted that the 2021 annual deregistration is likely to exceed the all-time high of 4.45 million in 2020. The 2020 number almost doubled that of 2019, and the 2019 number was about ten times that of 2018.

Small and micro businesses are an important foundation of China’s national economy, accounting for half of China’s tax revenue, 60 percent of GDP, and 80 percent of urban employment.

Sources:

China Central TV, December 29, 2021
https://news.cctv.com/2021/12/29/ARTIl4ZXOwvvYGcfrkqwHLUp211229.shtml

Zaobao.com, December 31, 2021
https://www.kzaobao.com/shiju/20211231/107661.htmlthe

China’s Banks Closed 2,500 Outlets in 2021

According to the 21st Century Business Herald, bank outlets in China have been shrinking rapidly. Based on the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission’s statistics, as of December 24, 2021, a total of 2,459 bank outlets of commercial banking institutions ceased operations this year. On December 24, 2021 alone, 29 commercial bank outlets closed their doors. The 21st Century Business Herald attributed the closures to the rapid development of digital technology.

Statistics from the China Banking Association show that, from 2018 to 2020, the number of outlets in the Chinese banking industry declined for three consecutive years, and the number of outlets that closed last year also approached 3,000. These closures include many outlets that had been in business for more than 30 years.

Semi-annual reports of banks also show signs of the decline of outlets. In the first half of 2021 alone, the four major state-owned commercial banks, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the Agricultural Bank of China, the Bank of China, and the Construction Bank, reduced 187 outlets or branches.

Behind the dramatic reduction in outlets comes the downsizing of bank staff. Comparing the data from the 2021 semi-annual and 2020 annual reports, the number of employees in the four major state-owned commercial banks decreased by 22,355 in the first half of 2021.

The  21st Century Business Herald said that, along with the outlet closures, the ability of banks to absorb deposits has declined significantly. At the same time, office rent, labor, and IT hardware maintenance have also risen due to competition, adversely impacting the profitability of bank branches.

Source: 21st Century Business Herald, December 28, 2021
http://www.21jingji.com/article/20211228/herald/e21b20a3c9a0ddd996fe746271c5ab13.html

 

U.S. Mainstream Media Silent on Their Interview of China’s Ambassador to the U.S.

Radio France Internationale reported on December 28 that Qin Gang, the Chinese Ambassador to the United States, recently accepted a joint interview with some mainstream media in the United States. However, in the past few days, there has not been a single media report in the United States on the interview.

According to the official website of the Chinese Embassy in the United States, on  December 20, Ambassador Qin Gang accepted a joint interview with the editors-in-chief and senior reporters of many mainstream media in Washington. The Bloomberg Innovation Economic Forum organized the interview in English in the form of a “fireside chat.”

The Chinese Embassy posted the interview content on its homepage and translated it into Chinese. The article emphasized that “all the content may be reported, and used as a background.” The Chinese media also highlighted Qin Gang’s remarks on Taiwan and how he discussed the United States provoking China on the Taiwan issue.

While the media inside China widely reported the interview, they questioned why none of the U.S. mainstream media reported the interview, including those who participated in the interview. “Why did they collectively lose their voice?” At least one commentator thought that the U.S. media did not want merely to reiterate Qin Gang’s propaganda.

Sources:

Radio France Internationale, December 28, 2021
https://tinyurl.com/2p8wa9t2

ifeng.com, December 29, 2021
https://i.ifeng.com/c/8CNA4TZ5PKR

Chinese Embassy to the United States, December 24, 2021
http://www.china-embassy.org/dshd/202112/t20211224_10475267.htm

 

China Restricts Christmas Gatherings and Bans Online Religious Messages and Fundraising

On Christmas Eve, Chinese government officials banned Christmas gatherings on the grounds of the epidemic. Meanwhile, five state agencies issued new regulations to prohibit online religious information and fundraising in the latest effort to prevent the spread of Western values.

Church gatherings to celebrate Christmas are restricted. The implementation differs in different places. Authorities at some locations may adjust the number of restrictions at any time. If a church has large events on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day, it must report them and obtain prior approval from the authorities.

On December 20, 2021, Rong’an County Education Bureau in Guangxi Province issued a notice prohibiting any “Western Festivals” in primary and secondary schools. Some young people follow Western values and lifestyles, which Western developed countries promote in China using technology. “In accordance with the directives from higher authorities, the Rong’an Education Bureau decided to prohibit teachers and students from organizing any sort of “Western festivals” or celebrations on and off-campus.

Also, on December 20, five state agencies, the State Administration of Religious Affairs, the State Internet Information Office, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, and the Ministry of National Security jointly issued the “Administrative Measures for Internet Religious Information Services.”

The new regulation, dated December 3, 2021, bans any organization or individual from uploading, publishing, forwarding, or spreading religious content on the Internet. No spiritual information may be provided in the form of text, pictures, audio, or video on websites, applications, forums, blogs, microblogs, public accounts, instant messaging tools, webcasts, or anything related.

“Overseas organizations or individuals and their organizations established in China shall not engage in Internet religious information services in China.”

The new regulation, effective on March 1, 2022, states that the religious groups with an “Internet Religious Information Service Permit” may only use their own websites, applications, forums, and other means, for spiritual information. The religious content must guide people to love the country and abide by the law when doing so. Further, the new regulation prohibits online fundraising for religious groups.

Sources:

1.)  Christian Network, December 22, 2021
http://www.jidunet.cn/article/44/59012.html

2.) Radio Free Asia, December 21, 2021
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/shehui/ql1-12222021035030.html

3.) China National Religious Affairs Administration, December 20, 2021
http://www.sara.gov.cn/bmgz/364755.jhtml