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{Editor’s Note: In June 2006, Beijing released an eight-episode TV documentary series: Preparing For Danger In Times Of Safety – Historic Lessons Learned from the Demise of Soviet Communism. It was a research project conducted by the government think tank, the Chinese Academy of Social Science. Afterwards, the Chinese Communist Party instructed party members across the nation to watch the series and launch serious discussions. The script of the prelude of the documentary quotes Hu Jintao’s words, “There are multiple factors contributing to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, a very important one being Khrushchev throwing away Stalin’s knife and Gorbachev’s open betrayal of Marxism-Leninism.” The full text of the narratives has been translated. What follows is the first episode.}

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{Editor’s Note: In June 2006, Beijing released an eight-episode TV documentary series: Preparing For Danger In Times Of Safety – Historic Lessons Learned from the Demise of Soviet Communism. It was a research project conducted by the government think tank, the Chinese Academy of Social Science. Afterwards, the Chinese Communist Party instructed party members across the nation to watch the series and launch serious discussions. The script of the prelude of the documentary quotes Hu Jintao’s words, “There are multiple factors that contributed to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, a very important one being Khrushchev throwing away Stalin’s knife and Gorbachev’s open betrayal of Marxism-Leninism.” The full text of the narratives has been translated. What follows is the introduction.}

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1. Enthusiastically celebrate the 60th anniversary for the establishment of the People’s Republic of China!
2. Enthusiastically cheer for the great victory of our country’s reform and opening-up policy and socialist modernization!
3. Tightly unite around the Central Party Committee with general party secretary Comrade Hu Jintao as the center. Millions of people forge ahead with only one mind to compose the new chapter of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation!   
4. Lift up high the great banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics; strive for a new victory for comprehensively building an affluent society!
5. Insist on direction and guidance from the Marxism, Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory and the "The Three Represents" to thoroughly implement and realize the Concept of Scientific Development!
6. Lift up high and be firm on the great banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics; insist and be firm on walking the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics; insist and be firm on holding the theory of socialism with Chinese characteristics! 
7. Forge forward courageously and steadfastly along the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics!
8. Develop a prosperous, powerful, democratic, civilized and harmonious modern socialist country!
9. Continue to emancipate the mind, insist on the reform and opening-up policy, advance scientific development, and promote harmony in society!
10. Emancipate the mind, be honest and realistic, keep pace with the time, and advance the reform and opening-up policy steadfastly!
11. Grasp the strategic opportunity, intensely focus on development, and seek and pursue development wholeheartedly!
12. Insist on humanism and realize, maintain, and develop the fundamental interests of the largest number of the general public as much as possible!
13. Comprehensively advance the socialist economy’s development, political development, cultural development, social development, the ecology and civilization’s development, and the Communist party’s development!
14. Insist on the basic economic system with the public ownership system as the major foundation with the co-existence and development of diverse systems of ownership; insist on the distribution system with distribution according to work as the major foundation and the co-existence of diverse ways of distribution!
15. Realize the fast and superb development of the nation’s economy!
16. Improve the capacity for independent innovation; develop and build an innovative country!
17. Construct a new socialist countryside; form a new pattern for integrated economic and social development across the city and countryside!
18. Walk on the path of civilized development for the development of production, an affluent life, and good ecology; develop an environmentally friendly society with resource conservation!
19. Insist on the basic policy of opening-up; improve the level of the open economy!
20. Insist on the leadership of the Communist Party. The people are master of their own affairs; manage and unit state affairs according to law！
21. Insist on the essential direction and strategy of managing state affairs according to the law; develop a socialist country under the rule of law!
22. Insist on and consummate the National People’s Congress system; guarantee the people are the masters of their own affairs!
23. Insist on and consummate the political consultation system with multi-party cooperation under the leadership of the Communist Party; develop and strengthen the united patriotic front!
24. Insist on and perfect the regional nationality autonomy system; consolidate and develop equal, unified, cooperative and harmonious socialist ethnic relationships!
25. Insist on and consummate the grass-roots autonomous system by the people; strengthen the development of the basic unit of political power!
26. Insist on the direction of the advanced socialist culture; promote the great development and great prosperity of the socialist culture!
27. Build the core socialist core value system; consolidate the common ideological foundation for the Communist Party and the people from all ethnic groups to forge ahead in unity!
28. Vigorously promote the national spirit with patriotism as the core and the spirit of the age with reform and innovation as the core!
29. Develop a socialist harmonious society; promote social justice!
30.  Maintain the general situation of the stable development of reform; realize the long-term order and stability of the country!
31. Strengthen the modernization of the national defense system and the army; realize the unification of an affluent country and strong armed forces in the process of comprehensively developing an affluent society!
32. Promote our army’s excellent tradition of following the direction of the Party, serving the people and brave spirit in battles; cultivate the core value of the modern revolutionary soldiers!
33. Comprehensively promote the great new project of party development with the spirit of reform and innovation!
34. Thoroughly study and implement the concept of scientific development; strengthen the administrative capability of the ruling Party and the advancement of the Party!
35. Firmly implement the policy of “One country, two systems” and maintain the long-term prosperity and stability of Hong Kong and Macao!
36. Insist on the principle of “One China” and promote the great undertaking of the peaceful unification of the country!
37. Insist on an independent and peaceful foreign policy; steadfastly walk on the path of peaceful development!
38. Lift up high the banner of peaceful development and cooperation; promote the development of a harmonious world with long-term stability, peace and common prosperity!
39. Unite to forge ahead; invigorate the nation of China!
40. Love the motherland deeply and develop the motherland!
41. Salute the revolutionary older generations and the martyrs who have established meritorious service for the independence, unification, democracy and prosperity of the country!
42. Salute the general workers, farmers, intellectuals, and cadres across the country!
43. Salute the various democratic parties, various mass organizations, and the patriots from all walks of life!
44. Salute the People’s Liberation Army officers, the armed police officers, soldiers and public security police!
45. Salute the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region compatriots, the Macao Special Administrative Region compatriots, the Taiwan compatriots and the overseas compatriots!
46. Salute all of the friends in foreign countries and the people of other countries in the world who care about and support the development of modernization in China!
47. Long live the great Chinese people!
48. Long live the great Chinese Communist Party!
49. Long live the great People’s Republic of China!
50. Long live the solidarity of various ethnic groups across the nation!

Endnotes:
[1] People’s Daily, September 12, 2009
http://politics.people.com.cn/GB/1026/10040024.html

The Development Process of the New China’s Foreign Culture Work during the Past 60 Years

By Cai Wu

The new China’s foreign culture work has passed through 60 years of difficult development. Under all party and state leaders’ care and guidance, the comrades at the cultural front have worked very hard. To diligently meet the needs of socialist and national development, they founded and developed the foreign cultural exchange enterprise. After going through many difficulties, it is a magnificent achievement.

I.
Comrade Mao Zedong said in 1945, “Regarding foreign culture, the anti-foreignism policy is wrong. (We) should absorb the developed foreign cultures as much as possible, so we can use them as references while developing China’s new culture.” In June 1949, when the new China grew from the flames of war,  our party selected a group of young artists from the liberated area and sent them to Hungary to participate in the World Youth and Student Peace Friendship Festival. In 1951, our country and Poland signed an intergovernmental culture partnership agreement. This was the first culture partnership agreement that the new China signed with a foreign government. It symbolized the official beginning of the new China’s foreign cultural exchange.

During the beginning period after the new China’s establishment, our country’s wide-range cultural exchange and cooperation was mainly with the Soviet Union and other socialist countries, as well as countries in Asian, African and Latin America. At the same time, we also vigorously developed ties with the Western countries. In January 1964, China and France established diplomatic relations; in October 1965, both countries signed a cultural exchange plan for the years 1965 and 1966. This was first intergovernmental cultural exchange plan that our country signed with a Western European country.

Foreign cultural exchange and cooperation greatly helped the development of new China’s cultural enterprise. With the help of socialist countries like the Soviet Union, our country brought in ballet, the symphony, the opera and many other kinds of Western classical arts, trained large numbers of outstanding artists, and greatly enriched and proliferated our country’s culture art industry. By studying the overseas advanced culture managerial experience, we successively established a large number of new art organizations, which were completely different from the folk play groups from old China. Theaters, libraries, art galleries, museums and other public cultural facilities were established. All of these basically changed the poor and weak aspects of the old China culture.

During the Great Cultural Revolution period, the foreign cultural work encountered heavy damage, but the foreign cultural exchange did not completely halt. As a part of the government diplomacy, cultural exchange played a unique role in the state diplomatic situation. At that time, besides the continuation of the art group visits and exchanges with some friendly countries, we also organized the People’s Republic of China Archaeological Relic Exhibition in Western Europe, the US, Japan, Yugoslavia, Romania, Mexico and so on, more than 10 nations. The exhibition received high praise from those countries and was called Relic Diplomacy.

II.
The 3rd Session of the 11th Central Committee of The Communist Party of China (CCCPC) opened the new era of the reform and open policy and the foreign cultural work welcomed its spring with big developments. In September 1978, the State Council issued the document “Regarding the Ministry of Culture Taking Over Management of the Foreign Cultural Exchange Work.” In 1982, the 5th conference of the 5th Session of National People’s Congress (NPC) adopted contents about the development of various cultural exchanges with other countries into the constitution, providing a legal guarantee to constantly expand foreign cultural exchanges for our country.

In 1983, Comrade Deng Xiaoping pointed out, “Implementation of the economy’s open door policy is correct. In the long run, it must be kept. In the long run, the foreign cultural exchanges also should keep growing.” Under the direction of a series of reform and open policies, the scope of our country’s foreign culture relations and exchanges has gradually grown. The foreign cultural exchanges rapidly expanded, from 194 times and 3,035 people in 1979 to 1075 times and 9,499 people in1986, respectively 16 and 40 times the annual average before the Great Cultural Revolution. The number of agreements signed by the intergovernmental culture partnership was approximately twice as much as the number before the Great Cultural Revolution. The scope of exchanges also expanded from the nations traditional friendly (to China) to the western nations, including the U.S., and the surrounding countries.

As the reform and open policy was further implemented, our country’s comprehensive strength and international influence obviously improved and the situation and the responsibility that the foreign cultural work faced has also changed tremendously. In 1997, Comrade Jiang Zemin pointed out in the 15th CCCPC, “(We) must be persistent on the self-centered and self-adopted principle, develop many kinds of foreign cultural exchanges, learn the advantage from various countries’ culture and demonstrate the achievements of China’s cultural achievements to the world. (We must) firmly prevent corrosion from the various kinds of decayed cultures.” Since the beginning of the new era, the Central Party Committee led by General Secretary, Comrade Hu Jintao, has set a series of new higher requests for the foreign cultural work according to recent developments and the new changes in domestic and foreign situations. The report from the 15th CCCPC recommended to “continue widely developing grass roots diplomacy, expand foreign cultural exchanges, improve friendship between the people and promote the development of relationships between countries.” In the report on the 17 CCCPC, General Secretary Hu Jintao discussed the new idea of the enhancement of the “soft” power of national culture for the first time. Enhancing the soft power of national culture and strengthening the influence and competitiveness of Chinese culture became the fundamental goal of our country’s cultural reconstruction. Culture, politics, and the economy became three important areas in our diplomatic work.

At present, the foreign cultural work basically forms four big work domains: cultural diplomacy, cultural exchanges, cultural foreign propaganda and cultural trade, which constitute multi-dimensional, multi-level, wide-domain and multi-channel work patterns.

Regarding the Cultural Diplomacy Aspect, Party and state leaders, like Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and others, personally initiated and participated in a series of significant culture diplomatic activities. Since the new era started, Chinese cultural diplomacy has become more and more active every day and has developed into a vivid display on the international stage. The Sino-French Culture Years, the Sino-Russian Country Year, the Sino-Japanese Culture and Sports Exchange Year and so on, a series of large-scale cultural diplomacy activities, obtained high recognition and broad participation from domestic and foreign governments and international communities.
The quantities of projects, the large scale, the high-scale specifications and the profound influences were unprecedented and have improved China’s international cultural influence enormously. Among them, the Sino-French Culture Years lasted two years and President Hu Jintao and President Chirac both attended the cultural year’s key activities. Over a dozen cities in China and France and over a million people were able to personally get to know cultures in other countries. Not only did it greatly advance China and France’s cultural exchanges, but it also set a good example for the resulting effects on other European countries. After 2005, Italy, Spain, Germany, Greece, Britain and so on all conducted a “cultural year” or a “cultural festival” jointly with China, and have awakened a Chinese culture fever.

Cultural Exchange and Cooperation

As of now, our country has entered into agreements with 145 foreign countries for cultural cooperation and made plans for nearly 800 annual cultural exchange activities, as well as maintaining intimate cooperation with over 1000 cultural organizations. From the central administration to the local district, from government to civilians, the scale and the scope of cultural exchanges has broadened like never before, with increasingly colorful contents and formats, through more diverse channels and at various levels.

At the same time that we make efforts to export Chinese culture, we have also actively imported advanced culture from the world into China. Since the 1990s, we have hosted a series of programs such as “The International Music Year for Symphonies,” “The International Singing and Dance Year,” and “The International Fine Arts Year,” in which we imported first-class art productions from all over the world.

As we entered the new century, we established the international cultural exchange platform including the “Beijing International Music Festival,” the “Asian Art Festival,” and the “China International Folk Arts Festival,” so as to build a bridge between the Chinese people, and foreign people and artists around the world. At the same time, these programs serve to lay a foundation for China to become the key country in Asia for international cultural activities. Through bilateral, multi-lateral, cross regional and cross-country cultural exchanges, we have strengthened our rights of speech in multilateral cultural affairs in the international society.

In 1989, we became a member of the UN’s “Convention on the means of prohibiting and preventing the illicit import, export and transfer of ownership of cultural property,” and in 1997, we joined the UNIDROIT “Convention on Stolen or Illegally Exported Cultural Objects.” We were able to obtain the return of numerous cultural relics from the U.K., U.S., Japan and Denmark. In 2006, China won a good number of votes and became a member of the Committee for the Safeguarding of the Intangible Cultural Heritage, and thus became involved in the “Convention Concerning the Protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage” as well as the “Convention for the Safeguarding of Intangible Cultural Heritage.”

We have also successfully entered the core leadership level of the International Council of Museums, the International Council on Monuments and Sites, and the International Center for the Study of the Preservation and Restoration of Cultural Property. We therefore have the right of speech in stipulating the rules regarding the safeguarding of international cultural heritage.

Up until 2009, China has successfully applied for 38 World Heritages, including 27 World Cultural Heritages and four Intangible Cultural Heritages, and thus greatly promoted the protection of domestic cultural heritage.

Cultural Propaganda

We have firmly followed the policy of making a priority of entertaining and influencing foreign mainstream society. Through a serious of diverse and colorful cultural activities, each with specific goals, we have introduced and promoted China to the world. After 30 years’ of this endeavor, we have established a series of influential brand names for foreign propaganda in forms of cultural activities; for example, overseas activities such as celebrations of the “Spring Festival,” National Day, and “Getting to Know China” have become important vehicles to spread Chinese culture. Among them, celebrating the Spring Festival in overseas countries has covered 18 countries. In Bangkok, London and Sydney, hundreds of thousands of people are attracted to Spring Festival celebrations every year. Foreign politicians and VIPs attach importance to this activity and actively participate in the celebration. It has become an important arena to promote Chinese culture. Our overseas cultural propaganda front is thus constantly strengthened.

China has now established 96 Divisions of Culture at the Chinese Embassy/Consulates in 82 countries. Since 1988, we have set up Chinese Culture Centers in the Republic of Mauritius, Benin, Egypt, France, the Republic of Malta, Korea and Germany. We have made rapid progress in our grass-roots project of spreading Chinese culture overseas. In the recent 10 years, we have made great efforts to have our radio and TV programs reach overseas audiences. China International Radio’s multilingual programs are broadcasting over 700 hours cumulatively every day. China Central TV’s international channel has more than 100 million overseas users. More than 100 thousand paid users are watching “Great Wall satellite TV.” On the other hand, we are also actively involved in the “Movies Reaching Overseas” project. In recent years, we have held a China Movie Festival (or China Movie Week) in overseas countries over 50 times annually, broadcasting over 400 domestically produced movies. Each year, we select over 200 domestically produced movies to participate in nearly 100 international movie festivals. A number of movies have won top prizes in major international movie festivals.
 
Cultural Trade

We have established a series of international cultural trade platforms that have had a wide range of influence. We came up with a group of cultural enterprises aimed at overseas business and trade; these were capable of competing in the international market. On one hand, these entities made a good profit; on the other hand, they effectively promoted Chinese culture. The first international commercial art show originated in 1979. We have made great progress in the past 30 years. We produced the original acrobatic ballet Swan Lake, which grossed 43 million Yuan in foreign countries. In 2007, the China Arts and Entertainment Group alone earned 8.89 million dollars through overseas commercial performances. The structure of the copyright trade is improving every year. The import and export ratio of copyrights fell from 15:1 in 1997 to 5:1 in 2007. The annual export of books has reached over 7.3 million, twice as many as imported books. The number of exported newspapers and magazines has reached over 4 million, reaching over 80 countries and regions, with an annual growth rate of 62.4%. Our publishing industry has therefore completed the transformation from “importing” to “reaching out.” Movie and video products take more and more of the overseas market share and have had an increasingly significant impact. Every year, we have had several domestic movie productions getting into the overseas theatres for mainstream audiences. According to statistics, the total export of movie and video products was approaching $3 billion in 2008. A portion of this figure, revenue generated from ticket sales for domestic movies, reached 2.528 billion dollars. The trading network of China’s movie and video products covers nearly 100 countries and regions in Asia, Europe, Oceania, America and Africa.

III.

As we review the glorious path of our foreign cultural work over the past 60 years, we conclude with the following major experiences and inspirations:

1. We must continue to keep the entire country moving in the same direction. We must earnestly implement the guiding policies made by the central CCP committee regarding foreign affairs and foreign cultural affairs, focusing on the two big projects – domestic and international, and firmly protect our nation’s interests.

2. The overall goal and task of foreign cultural affairs are to promote the mutual understanding and friendship between Chinese people and people all over the world. Through vivid cultural exchanges, Chinese culture will reach out to overseas countries, and thus expand the impact of Chinese culture on international society, so as to improve the soft power of our nation.

3. We must combine the quintessence from elite cultures from all over the world. We must learn to identify through comparison and borrow through exchange, in order to make the socialist cultural undertakings prosper, and to meet the increasing spiritual and cultural demands from the people.

4. We must persevere in cultural sovereignty, and at the same time respect the diversity of world culture. While spreading and emphasizing the independence and sovereignty of the values in our culture, we must strive to maintain the diversity of world culture, and respect the differences between diverse cultures. We must promote dialogues between different cultures on an equal basis, and promote harmony and cultural prosperity all over the world.

5. We must persevere in bridging the common feelings and emotions of humankind, and take this as our basis. We must use culture to nurture people, use culture to promote mutual friendship, and to help Chinese people establish friendship with people all over the world.

6. We must persevere in integrating our resources, with the government taking the leading role and have all circles in society get actively involved; we must enhance cooperation between the central government and local governments, and between government and civil organizations, forming a multi-faceted, multi-level communication structure.

7. We must keep up with the trend, and continue to reform and renovate the style and content in our cultural exchanges, encouraging originality, and creativity, while combining traditional culture and modern publicity methods, and combining modern culture and modern technology. We must pay attention to research and understand the characteristics of foreign audiences, so as to follow the correct rules in cultural exchange and improve the influence and appeal of culture.

8. We must learn from the commercial operation mode and channels most commonly adopted in international society, and use them to promote our cultural enterprises and products, expanding their market share on the international market, and improving their competitiveness.

9. We must always protect the cultural sovereignty and cultural security, defending against the invasion of harmful culture, and taking controls in accordance with the legal system, so as to supervise the cultural exchange in a scientific manner.

10. We must pay attention to the development of manpower and the battlefront. We must train a professional foreign cultural team that maintains high quality and efficiency, and make efforts to construct a variety of battlefronts in overseas countries to spread Chinese culture.

By the Minister of Culture

Endnote:
Qiushi Theory Online, August 1, 2009
http://www.qsjournal.com.cn/zxdk/2009/200915/200907/t20090729_8133.htm

Will China Ever Become a Spy Power?

More than two years ago, Chinese hackers broke into German government computers, infecting them with spyware, and, at one point, paralyzing their electronic systems. This attracted international attention, and the East was newly viewed as a threat. In fact, experts say, the telecommunication systems of the United States Congress have to withstand millions of attacks each day. Modern information warfare had long been fought around the world, silently, but intensely. However, as long as the public is unaware of it, no one will know just how cutthroat it really is. The practice of stealing industrial intelligence and business information has been going on for a long time among industrialized countries. In recent years, as China has started engaging in the international community and entering into global competition, rumors have begun to spread that Chinese spies are everywhere. In fact, many Chinese living in the United States now work in the government, in national defense, and in economic enterprises and trade, and do academic research. In recent years, news about these people stealing information for their home country of China has made headlines, causing much worry and anger in the U.S. At the same time, German media have recently reported a number of cases of Chinese espionage. The rise of this new power is understandably being viewed with consternation.

Two years ago, the theme of one issue of Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine was “Yellow Spies.” The story ridiculed Chinese spies with sarcasm and prejudice as well as racism. It caused a huge wave of irritation among China’s “angry young,” even though many of them couldn’t fully understand the content of the issue. They relayed distorted information, causing quite a phenomenon at the time. The free press in the West loves reporting bad news, and not only on issues related to China. They are also fascinated with exposing the dark side of their own societies, afraid that if they lag behind in digging out bad news, their readers will abandon them. China’s “angry young” are so used to listening only to the Chinese official media, which exaggerate the Chinese government as wonderful, brilliant, and precise, that if they ever run across any criticism from the outside, their nationalistic emotions irrationally take over.

The most common type of espionage carried out by Chinese in the West is to collect information on commercial and industrial high-tech technologies. Chinese hackers attacking their targets in Germany via the Internet is very popular in Germany. The areas they focused on were scientific and technological enterprises, such as automotive manufacturing, new energy research and development, chemistry, communications, optics, electrical engineering, materials research, and military equipment.

Chinese espionage activities in Germany are so widespread that they have become a threat to Germany’s infrastructure, especially in areas such as the country’s power grid. Mr. Walter Opfermann, an espionage protection expert in the office for counterintelligence in the German Federal Constitution Protection Bureau, pointed out in July that Chinese hackers are trying hard to hide their identities by installing Trojans in e-mail attachments or simply launching attacks via other large-scale network systems, and that their tactics are increasingly sophisticated. China’s "National Trojan program" has a dual function: theft and destruction. China’s National Security Bureau utilizes advanced technology provided by U.S. electronics companies such as Cisco Systems (CISCO). These high-tech systems enable the National Security Bureau to attack individuals or organizations that they have targeted by transmitting viruses. As soon as the PCU is turned on, the entire computer system is paralyzed. One of the reasons that the Chinese spies steal high-tech information could be that the Chinese want the results of Western research free of charge, eliminating the need for investing in research and development at home. But this approach has simply made the means of competition more malicious.

German experts know that, in recent years, China’s spies are not only stealing economic information, but also monitoring those people they consider “disturbances.”  Of course, they do not operate as openly in Germany as they do in China. Germans know that Chinese spies in Germany are monitoring Uyghurs, Falun Gong followers, Tibetan independence movement adherents, and Taiwan independence movement supporters, as well as pro-democracy activists. South Munich is the Uyghur’s home base outside of China. Since the 1970s, the US government-backed Radio Free Europe has broadcast in the Uyghur language. In the 1990s, the exiled Uyghur people set up organizations in South Munich and attracted a large number of Uyghur refugees. In 2004, the “World Uyghur Congress” established its headquarters in Munich. Rebiya Kadeer became the world leader of Uyghurs in exile, even though she was in Washington, D.C. at the time. Unlike the Chinese pro-democracy organizations, within which divisions and disunity always exist, Uyghurs and Tibetans are very respectful of their spiritual leaders, and it is rare to hear of internal struggles. Even though the Chinese regime discredits the World Uyghur Congress as being a terrorist organization, because Kadeer is popularly respected in the US Congress, the World Uyghur Congress was able to hold its Opening Assembly in front of the US Capitol Building in May. This was a further affront to Beijing.

Chinese diplomats in Germany often gather information under the shadow of diplomatic immunity. The German government recently prevented a consul named Ji Wumin from entering Germany, because, during the past few years when he worked as a Chinese diplomat in Germany, the German federal intelligence agency discovered that he had carried out espionage. Mr. Ji Wumin was specifically interested in collecting information on Uyghurs. He returned to his home country in 2007. Probably because Beijing was pleased with his accomplishments, he was again sent to Munich. But this time, the German government refused to allow him to enter.

Because hackers from China have often invaded Germany’s sensitive intelligence systems, its Federal Constitution Protection Bureau has now established a special team to deal with such attacks. Germany is now vigilant when it comes to China, just as it was with regard to Russia in the past. According to estimates by its Federal Constitution Protection Bureau, there are 20 to 50 Chinese intelligence personnel in Germany, and their job is to collect intelligence for China. It seems that, with the growth of the economy, as well as with the escalation of conflicts among different ethnic groups, China no doubt will develop into an “intelligence power.” Compared to the U.S., Russia, and other big powers, China is different in that its National Security agency always does business behind closed doors, seizing and fighting against its own citizens. Its evil ways have not yet reached foreign countries, but if one day China’s CIA and KGB do extend the country’s tentacles of influence overseas, it will mark a new era in extraterritorial abductions and intimidation.

Endnote:
[1] Observation, August 6, 2009, by Liao Tianqi
http://www.observechina.net/info/artshow.asp?ID=61406

The Western World’s Five Major Failed Predictions about China (Abstract)

By reporters Li Bo and Xi Ping

In the past 60 years, since the new China was founded, especially during the recent 31 years after the implementation of the “reform and open-door policy,” China has created a miracle in the history of mankind. There has never been any other country that could rapidly lead a society with so large a population from poverty and being backward to prosperity in such a short time! As we walk on our path, in addition to acclamations and praise, we have also heard criticism and curses, as well as a variety of “terror predictions.” However, after all, history will not change because of curses and so-called “predictions.”
 
It is a general impression that the western world’s comments on China are always negative. Nonetheless, that was not the case at the very beginning. During the era of the Enlightenment Movement in France, Chinese were considered a group of gentle people with high morality, living in a country permeated with an artistic atmosphere.

In 1895, Wilhelm II of Germany gave a painting The Yellow Peril to Nicholas II of Russia as a gift. This was the origin of the “Yellow Peril” theory, and it quickly spread in the western world. Some historians believe the “Yellow Peril” theory can be traced back to the Han Dynasty, when the Han army defeated the Xiongnu (nomadic minorities in the north and northwest regions of China), who then retreated to the west. Along the path of retreat, the Xiongnu invaded western territories and conquered land, leaving the European countries in great fear. In addition, the Mongolians took an expedition to the west in the 13th century, further enhancing the fear westerners have towards the yellow race.

Since the industrial revolution, the western countries have been getting very powerful; what followed was colonization and aggrandizement. When the western great powers conquered China with their military ships and overwhelming artillery, they could not help developing a sense of superiority as conquerors. The image of the Chinese and of China as a nation suffered further vilification and denigration.

Who is Hiding behind the “Veil?”

If it had happened before globalization, it would be barely acceptable to attribute various misunderstandings to the lack of mutual communication between the western world and China. However, in a time when information is quickly accessible and freely shared, if there are still such remarks as the “China Threat Theory,” the “China Collapse Theory,” and “the Death of Hong Kong Remark,” one cannot help being suspicious as to what the motivation is behind all these theories.

For most westerners, China is a country that is relatively isolated from the rest of the world, and always hides itself behind a layer of “veil.” Since the implementation of the reform policy, China has enjoyed a much higher degree of freedom and openness; however, it seems some westerners have failed to catch up with this change as they lack the desire to understand China. Some of the western media specifically like to attract attention by attacking and defaming China, so as to cater to their readers.

Fu Ying, Chinese ambassador to the U.K., once pointed out that many of the problems of mutual communication between the western world and China lie in western society’s lack of understanding of China and lack of related information. In terms of their knowledge of China, many western media and the general public lag behind by at least 20 years. Some of the western people know very little about China. Even that little knowledge they have is most likely from movies. Some even think that in today’s China, men still wear braids, women bind their feet to make them small, and a person can stand on bamboo leaves.

We cannot deny the fact that many Westerners exist who try to understand the true situation of today’s China. Some scholars have been researching China with a scientific attitude. The American ambassador to China in the late Qing Dynasty, Chester Holcombe, made the following statement, “It is far easier to criticize the Chinese than to understand them.” Westerners cannot use the standard developed in western society to judge and establish requirements for other people.

Some people believe that the Chinese need to become more proactive in making their voices heard in the western world, and to present the true image of China. Many believe, when presenting the true picture, that China should change the style of presentation, and learn to use a style easily understandable and acceptable to westerners. Actually, these people have only seen the surface of this matter. The essence of the problem lies in the fact that western media have control over the right of speech. In the western language system, all voices not conforming to the key interests of the western world will naturally get filtered. In addition to factors relating to culture and ideology, what concerns them most is profit and interests.

Behind the Double Standard is the Pursuit of the Highest Profit

Behind all these negative comments about China is a fear of China’s development. Some westerners fear that once it becomes a strong nation, China will aggrandize like some of the western leading powers. As China becomes more and more powerful, the western world feels the pressure and becomes increasingly uneasy.

Why would western society feel uneasy with China’s peaceful development? Some people think the Chinese are competing for jobs with foreigners when they go abroad and that Chinese enterprises will take a large share of the foreign market. This is the kind of conclusion that cannot stand careful deliberation; it is also from a standpoint centered on western society. If we claim that westerners are competing with Chinese for jobs and western enterprises occupy the Chinese market, we will be regarded as nationalistic, protectionist, and conservative. Behind these contradictory attitudes lies a double standard for judgment.

When looking at communication issues between the west and the east, China has always been a great nation with a tolerant attitude. On the contrary, some westerners have used their double standard in order to maximize their own profits. Imagine two people playing chess. If one party is both the judge and a player, and uses his authority as the judge to take advantage of the other, the result is obvious. Take the treatment of terrorists as an example, Americans detest terrorists intensely as they suffered the 911 terrorist attack. However, the U.S. government announced that the suspects of the “East Turkistan” terrorists detained in Guantanamo Prison were not guilty. The reason is quite simple. It is because these suspects are not the enemy acting against Americans; even if they are on the terrorist list of the United Nations, they are not considered terrorists by Americans as long as they do not harm the national interest of the U.S.

Lionel Vairon, a French scholar once said that China is not a Christian country; nor is it a country with the same system as that of the western countries. This is precisely one of the reasons why the rise of China makes some western people feel uncomfortable. As China becomes increasingly influential on the international arena, it is very hard for some of the westerners to avoid using a double standard in an attempt to thwart China’s development.

China’s Development Will Not Be Swayed by Other People’s Intentions

After some westerners exhausted their means of undermining China either by excessive flattery or defamation, China is still advancing rapidly on the road we have hewed out ourselves. Different kinds of predictions have failed one after another. Contrary to the prediction that China’s economy would collapse before the Beijing Olympics, China’s economy is the only shining star in a worldwide economic crisis. It is some of the western countries that are facing economic collapse. Contrary to the prediction that Hong Kong will die after being returned to China, Hong Kong is now more prosperous and stable under the “One Country Two System” policy. …

Of course, we still need to look squarely at the problems currently existing in China.

Many new problems and conflicts arose in China in the midst of a rapid economic growth. The developments in the east regions and the west regions are not balanced; the gaps between the cities and the countryside and between the rich and the poor have widened. These problems have hindered the steps to further advancement in our country. This requires us to analyze and handle these problems with a progressive perspective and optimistic attitude.

As the saying goes, the spectator sees most clearly. With regard to criticism from the western world, we cannot simply turn a deaf ear to it. We should absorb and adopt reasonable opinions. “Other people as a mirror help you see your own hits and misses.” Therefore, we can use western people’s opinions as our mirror. However, we must also realize the western people’s limitations. Most of them have never been to China and do not know the true situation of China at all. In addition, some westerners focus too much on the negative side, and magnify the negativities with a pessimistic attitude. They have ignored the efforts that the Chinese government and the Chinese people have made.

In the current plight of global economic crisis, the Chinese people should view things rationally and should pay more attention to contributing our wisdom and effort to solving problems. Any negative or arrogant sentiments are harmful to China’s development, preventing us from getting over this economic depression. For westerners, they need to look at China’s development more objectively and rationally. We do not require that westerners look at China from the standpoint of our country, but at least they must learn to view China with an attitude that treats us equally and on the basis of understanding China. That is the very basic requirement for communication between different cultures, isn’t it?

In the midst of the current complicated relationship between China and the western world, the Chinese people should understand this even more clearly; that is, the so-called globalization does not mean the disappearance of any conflict of interest between different nations and between different countries. Even less so does it mean the vanishing of nations and countries. There are always some people in the world who are used to viewing China with tinted glasses. They hope to change China according to western society’s wishes. However, China is after all not a country that would dance to others’ rhythms. This is precisely the reason why a variety of “terror predictions” come up once in a while, and have sometimes even made a very great noise. Fortunately, history has proven the end result of these predictions is bound to be a failure. The reason is quite simple; it is that China has found a path to success that best fits our country. Ironic comments, curses, criticisms, and wishful “terror predictions” cannot stop the advancement of China, and cannot understate the greatness of this path. History will not change because of these predictions!

It is under this circumstances that some thoughtful people have started to reflect (on their previous attitudes toward China). The New York Times once used this headline, “As China Goes, So Goes…” A translator put it into Chinese as “Once China prospers, so does the whole world.”

Failed Prediction I: The “China Threat Theory”

The “China Threat Theory” Co-exists along with China’s Progress

The West started the “China threat theory” when the Soviet Union disintegrated, Eastern Europe went through drastic changes, Russian adjusted its foreign policy, and the international communist movement faced serious setbacks. China as a socialist country has not only failed to collapse, but has maintained an alarming economic growth rate ever since China opened its gates and carried out full-scale reform. China’s overall national strength has experienced unprecedented growth. The United States, Western Europe, Japan and other Western countries began to focus on China as their opponent after the Soviet Union no long existed, treating China as the largest and most dangerous “imaginary enemy.” The West thinks that an increasingly rising China will fundamentally change the world’s geopolitical and geo-economic pattern. Therefore, all Western political and economic interests are under a huge threat. Based on this assumption, the West deals with China in the same way it dealt with the Soviet Union during the Cold War: to restrain China politically, militarily and diplomatically.

Why Advocate the “China threat Theory”

In 1990, a scholar from Japan Defense University named Tomohide Murai published an article called “China: The potential enemy.” Thereafter, the “China threat theory” began to spread. In 1992, the director of the Asian projects of the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia, Mr. Ross H. Munro published Awakening Dragon: The Real Danger in Asia Is from China. In 1993, Harvard University Professor Samuel P. Huntington also published an article “The Clash of Civilizations?”  These publications represented the tone of the “China threat theory” in the early 1990s. In 1995 and 1996, during the “Taiwan Strait crisis,” the incident triggered a major debate within the United States over policy towards China. The “China threat theory” rapidly spread overseas. In February of 1997, Time Magazine reporters Bernstein and Munro published a book, The Coming Conflict with China. The book became a very influential work. In 1998 and 1999, the United States former CIA expert on China, Mr. William C. Triplett II, and former Republican foreign policy adviser to Congress, Mr. Edward  Timperlake, co-authored the book, Year of the Rat (1998) and another book Red Dragon Rising (1999), explicitly claiming, “China poses a significant threat to the United States on national security.”

Whether it is to accuse the Chinese people of taking away Americans’ rice bowls, sensationally claiming that China is “buying up America,” or articulating that China is a  “strategic competitor,” of America, these sayings express the same message, that the fast growth of China is becoming a threat to the United States and other major Western countries.

The advocates of the “China Threat Theory” are mostly political figures or scholars. From a military, political, and economic point of view, they discuss how China poses a threat to the interest of their countries. In no way do they hide their self-serving motives. The rise and spread of the “China threat theory” is a demonstration of concern over the difference between Eastern and Western culture. It also represents a suspicion of different ideologies. What is more, it comes from the political realism perspective and is an expression of dissatisfaction with China’s growing influence.

The “China Threat Theory” is Constantly Changing

The “China threat theory” first started in the United States, Japan and other countries. However, China’s neighboring countries share it as well. Due to historic and geographic reasons, for example, China has issues with its neighboring countries in Southeast Asia on the South China Sea dispute. Therefore, because of speculation among Western media, the influence of the “China threat theory” has spread to this region. To some extent, it even directly affects some countries’ foreign policies in this region.

Although the “China threat theory” has a market, it has not become the dominant opinion on China. In recent years, research reports on China as well as research done on China in the international community have been more thorough and more comprehensive. There is a growing consensus that China will rise peacefully. China’s foreign policy of being a good-neighbor, a peace keeper, making others rich, and acting as a responsible big country, all of this has made the neighboring countries realize that China’s development is an opportunity for them rather than a threat to them.

At the same time, the “China Threat Theory” has been constantly undergoing changes. Since 2004, along with the “rise of China” issue, the “China threat” emerged in international media, and went through new developments. According to this theory’s prediction, China is no doubt quickly becoming a powerful nation. A powerful China may become a constructive and responsible contributor, and could maintain a “peaceful rise,” but it’s still too early to assert that a strong China will not abandon the path of peace and become a threat to other countries. Open discussions in China on the Internet have substantially increased.

Failed Prediction II: The “China Collapse Theory”

The “China Collapse Theory” Totally Collapsed

With rapid economic growth, China has, at the same time, encountered a series of problems and contradictions, problems in energy, environment, serious ecological conditions, the imbalanced distribution of wealth, and the "three rural" issues. These problems and contradictions in China’s economy have planted seeds that there is a risk that could restrain a sustained, steady, and healthy growth. Under such circumstances, some people from the West exaggerate these problems, and have predicted that China cannot get out of the woods, but can only collapse.

From “Cosmetic Prosperity” to “Collapse”

With the impact of the Asian financial crisis in 1997, and the global economy that went into "growth recession" in 2001. Some other Asian countries and most countries in the world encountered economic predicaments, a slowdown in economic growth, or even negative growth. Some Western economists believe that China’s economic growth model of high investment, low output, relying on large numbers of cheap labor and enormous energy consumption, has come to an end. In addition, China’s economic growth is also facing difficulties in state-owned enterprise reform, environmental pollution, financial systems, and many other rigid structural obstacles. Therefore, the Chinese economy will inevitably face difficulties.

In 2000, the economist and historian from the University of Pittsburgh, Thomas Rawski, published two academic articles. One is entitled “What’s Happening to China’s GDP Statistics?” The other is “China’s GDP Statistics – A Case of Caveat Lector?”  In the article, Rawski questioned every aspect of China’s economic growth model, from the economic growth slowdown, to energy consumption shrinking; from the decline in logistics, to slow growth in major industrial products lines; from the apparel industry to commodities consumption; and even to the factor of agriculture retardation. Rawski also asked why China has to produce these false statistics.

A year after Rawski’s articles were published, a Chinese American lawyer, Zhang Jiachun also published a book, China Will Soon Collapse. It was around that time that Western mainstream media started to publish articles questioning China’s statistical data. In January 2002, the editor of a quarterly magazine, China’s Economy, Mr. Joe Studwell, published the book called China Dream. He insinuated in his book that China’s economy is “a building built on sand.” On April 1, 2002, Time magazine also published an article, “Why China Cooks the Books?” In its context, the book indicates that China’s economic power is nothing but a fabrication, because China’s economic power is calculated based on false statistical data. Some people try to distort the picture, to exaggerate the existing problems that China faces during its economic development, claiming China’s economy is “cosmetic prosperity.” More importantly, they believe that there is no way China has the capability of solving these problems. China can only go step by step towards collapse. Thus, the “China collapse theory” was born.

“China is to Collapse only Exists in Your Book”

In August 2001, Gordon C. Chang published a monograph in English, “The Coming Collapse of China.” The book caused a storm in the United States. This book was on The New York Times bestseller list. The United States Congress also invited him to attend congressional hearings. Gordon Chang said in his book that, over the past 50 years, China has accumulated too many problems in its economic, social and political structures. The current economic prosperity is a sham. Under the strong impact that resulted from entering the WTO, China’s political and economic systems will quickly collapse. He asserted, “China’s current political and economic system can only be maintained for up to 5 years. … China’s economy is in recession, is about to collapse, and it will collapse before the 2008 Beijing Olympics, not after!”

Gordon Chang has lived in Hong Kong and Shanghai for nearly 20 years. He certainly has some knowledge about China’s economic and social development. He has published some articles in The New York Times, the Asian Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and other newspapers on China’s economic topics. He also presented briefings to the U.S. Congress, and to various think tanks on China’s economic issues. Being a Chinese descendant, who worked in China for many years, his remarks were favored, and some Westerners found them convincing.

After the Beijing Olympic Games in 2008, even the global economic crisis had not yet occurred. China’s economy not only didn’t collapse; it sustained relatively fast, stable and ongoing development. Reality has shattered Gordon Chang’s “China collapse theory.”

In the same year, in 2008, the honorary chairman of Morgan Stanley, Mr. Howard Watts, had already drawn a conclusion about what Gordon Chang said. Mr. Watts said, “Your  ‘China collapse theory’ can only exist in your book. It will not be part of China’s reality.” Even so, under the current environment of global economic crisis, we still need to remain vigilant on speculation intended to heat up the ‘China collapse theory.’

Failed Prediction III: The China Food Crisis

Can’t the Chinese feed themselves?

After the 1980s, in the 20th century, China was still short of food. The eating problem could not be completely resolved and China needed help from the international community for certain types of food. In the early 1990s, China’s economy and urbanization stepped into a new stage. American expert Lester Brown predicted that, with the increase in the population and the shrinkage of land, China would face a serious food shortage, which would have an impact on the whole world.

“Did the Chinese food shortage impact the world?”

In September 1994, the American Journal World Watch published an academic article, “Who Will Feed China?” The author of the article was Lester Brown, director of the Earth Policy Institute. The article pointed out that the process of the continued industrialization of China, coupled with the increase in population, and the improvement of the consumption structure, would greatly increase the demand for food. However, due to the decrease in land, the shortage of water and the damage to the environment that happened during development, food production would decrease and China would face a serious food shortage. Therefore, in the future, China would rely more and more heavily on food imports, which would affect the food supply and prices around the world. Even though China had enough foreign currencies, it was impossible for the international market to provide such a huge amount of food to the 1.3 billion Chinese people. The author predicted that China’s food crisis would affect the whole world.

After its publication, the article generated enormous attention from all over the world. Almost all of the important international journals, newspapers and news media reported or published the article on prominent pages. The Chinese government and the academic world also responded quickly. Following that, Brown made speeches at several important international conferences to promote his argument and furthermore, added more new evidence. In late 1995, he published the book, Who Will Feed China?

Brown’s theory of the “Chinese food crisis” is deeply rooted in the western thinking style, but lacks scientific spirit. At most, it only has the value of stirring up the issue. The difference is that he was able use good tactics to hide his own motives so that he could address the “threat” of China to all the remaining countries and all the people in this world from the perspective of the ecological environment. He also considered that this kind of threat is more threatening than the military threat and requested the leaders of different countries to treat this threat as a primary consideration.

Actually, what Brown raised is not just an issue about who will feed China? It is an issue about “how China, a country that cannot feed itself, will harm the world.” It can be concluded that the perspective in Who Will Feed China represents a “new way of thinking” in the research field of the “China Threat.” That is, all of mankind should be united together to “suppress” the economic development of China. From this perspective, Who Will Feed China actually raised two new theories of the “China Threat,” which are the “China food threat” and the “China environment threat.” It worked as a driving force to enrich the implications of “the theory of the China threat.” That is why it caused strong reactions all over the world.

As a matter of fact, the “food crisis” predicted by Brown did not happen. No matter what kind of motif or purpose Brown had, China smashed his prediction with facts. The hard evidence is the sufficient food supply in China during the global food crisis.

On June 20, the ninth “World Refugee Day,” the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation reported that due to the influence of the global economic crisis, the high food prices, and natural and man-made disasters, the global “hunger” problem this year would be more serious. It affected a record-breaking 1.02 billion people, about 1/6 of the world’s population. That is to say, one out of 6 people on this earth is starving or faces problems of hunger.

Compared to the wide-spread anxiety about the safety of food around the world caused by the global food crisis, China is relatively more at ease. For the 5 years from 2004 to 2008, China’s food production increased continuously. Therefore, China currently has a sufficient food supply. The major agriculture products are sufficient, and the prices are stable. In addition, it has newly developed the concept of “Organic Food,” and “Healthy Eating.” “We will not be nervous as long as we have food in our hands.” China has successfully resolved the eating problem for 1.3 billion people, which itself is a prominent contribution to food safety across the world.

At present, China has accomplished the historic transition from a long-term shortage to a consistent quantity of sufficient food supply of the major agricultural products. China fed 22% of the world population using only 7% of the land. The self-sufficient food supply has reached 95% across the country. From a long-term perspective, China definitely has the ability to furnish the food supply for its people based on domestic food production.

As a responsible big country, when China feeds itself, it also tries its best within its ability to proactively donate food and provide food aid to international food and agricultural organizations and countries that have an urgent food shortage.

Failed Prediction IV: “The Theory of a Dead Hong Kong” Dies

“The Theory of a Dead Hong Kong”

The return of Hong Kong was a failure in the eyes of many western people. Under the impact created by the conflict between China and the Western forces, the world felt the power of a rising China. However, some westerners dare not to admit the success of China, which is manifested in their opinions over the fate of Hong Kong. It is not just the westerners who worried about the fate of Hong Kong after its return. Due to the return of Hong Kong, its political system, economy, culture and education, etc. all will face large-scale adjustment. At that time, some Hong Kong people were suspicious about the implementation of the “One Country, Two Systems,” “A Hong Kong Governed by Hong Kong People,” and a “High Degree of Autonomy.” Many immigrated to other countries. Based on this, some western media made the extreme prediction that after Hong Kong’s return, it would face the fate of death.

Illusion: the Death of Hong Kong

In June of 1995, the U.S. magazine Fortune published a cover story on the “Death of Hong Kong.” In the report, the female Asian reporter, Louise Clark, concluded that after Hong Kong’s return, it would lose its status as a vigorous international market center; Beijing would control all the departments of Hong Kong’s government; English would be replaced by Mandarin; foreign merchants would be treated unfairly; Renminbi would replace the American dollars to be associated with Hong Kong money; and the People’s Liberation Army soldiers would be all over the streets.

Louise Clark predicted that Hong Kong would lose its role as an international commercial and financial hub, businesses would leave Hong Kong, corruption would take root and spread, and “the naked truth about Hong Kong’s future can be summed up in two words: It’s over.” [1]

The publication of the report caused quite a stir in the world. As a mainstream media of the financial world, the negative impact caused by those kinds of reports was enormous. Some foreign businesses were misled by it and left Hong Kong’s market one after another. Some Hong Kong people were misled by it and left their homes to immigrate to other countries one after another. Many countries and regions were misled by it and looked at Hong Kong from a strange perspective, which made the situation for the initial stage of “a Hong Kong governed by Hong Kong people” very difficult.

In early 2002, Fortune published another cover story, “Who Wants Hong Kong?” It showed worries over the current situation of Hong Kong after 5 years’ transition. It claimed that after China opened up to the world economically, Hong Kong would lose its function as the gate for foreign investment to enter China. In addition, with a variety of economic problems inside Hong Kong, the status of Hong Kong would be replaced by Shanghai. That caused the Hong Kong government to express strong protests and rebuttals.

Apology: We were Wrong!

When history proved that it was impossible for Hong Kong to die, Fortune started to apologize. In July 2007, 10 years after the return of Hong Kong, its editor Sheridan Prasso published, “Oops! Hong Kong is hardly dead.” The article stated, “Back in 1995, Fortune predicted the downfall of Hong Kong once it was handed over to China. But in 2007, the city is thriving more than ever. — Ok, ok, we were wrong!” [2] Ten years after the handover on July 1, 1997, Hong Kong is far from over and hardly dead.

In the same year, Times published a cover story. It used 25 pages to discuss the changes in Hong Kong over the 10 years, commented on the theory of the “Death of Hong Kong” from a new perspective, admitted its sister magazine Fortune made a wrong report at that time, and considered Hong Kong more vigorous than ever.

As of this year, Hong Kong has been returned for 12 years. During this period of time, Hong Kong went through the Asian financial crisis and the SARS episode. With the devoted support and help of the central government, Hong Kong was able to endure various attacks one after another. When the whole world is facing a serious economic crisis, it is inevitable that Hong Kong’s economy also shows signs of withering. This is another test. At this time, we should guard against the resurrection of the theory of the “Death of Hong Kong.”

Failed Prediction V: The Theory of the End of Communism”

History is not Over Yet

After the publication of the Communist Manifesto, the communist movement thrived across the world. The socialist countries of the Soviet Union, and those in east Europe, and China, etc. were established one after another, which further indicated the bright future and the vigor of the life of the communist movement. However, at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s, the happening of a series of astonishing incidents, including the drastic changes in east Europe and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, presented a heavy blow to the communist movement. During this period of time, the western world hastened their steps for “peaceful transformation,” using their propaganda to promote the claim that “Communism will be finished.” Because the exceptional representative of Communism, China, is also in the middle of the political storm that will come sooner or later, the direction of the development of socialism became a major topic under the current historic background. Therefore, the Theory of the end of Communism became more and more popular.

Communism: “the Last Crisis?”

In 1988, former president of the United States Richard Nixon published 1999: Winning by Default, which systematically discussed that the US should develop a “strategy for peaceful competition” with the socialist countries behind the iron curtain. Namely, based on military containment, the U.S. should take advantage of its strong economy to induce the “peaceful transformation” of the socialist countries using economic aid and technical transfers. In addition, it should open the door for “peaceful transformation” through psychological warfare in ideology competition and spreading the “values of freedom and democracy.”

After the publication of the book, the situation in Eastern Europe went through intense turbulence, the political situation drastically changed, and the whole world was startled. Within a year, the government of 6 countries, Poland, Hungary, East Germany, Czechoslovakia and Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Romania, changed. The communist party and the worker’s party, which had been in power for over 40 years, either lost its power or changed its nature. At this time, China was also in the middle of a political storm. Therefore, the “Theory of the termination of Communism” became even more popular.

In 1989, the former national security business assistant for the U.S. president, the renowned strategic thinker Brzezinsky, published his representative work based on the eastern European drastic change, Grand Failure: The Birth and Death of Communism in the Twentieth Century. This book stated that communism as a movement, after it controlled most of the 20th century, had already declined and entered “the final crisis.” The book asserted that communism “will wither away irreversibly in history in the 21st century because it violates the rules of history.

History Will not End

In 1991, two years after the publication of Grand Failure, the Soviet Union finally disintegrated due to the serious faults in its practices. The SU Communist party had to leave office and announced that the party was dissolved. This made the western countries firmly believe in the “Theory of the termination of Communism.”

Right after that, the Albanian Labor party was defeated in the election and left office in 1992. After experiencing almost one year of civil war, Yugoslavia was divided into five independent republic countries. After the drastic change, the countries in east Europe departed from the direction of socialism, and the communist party lost its ruling status.

Soon after the drastic change in Eastern Europe, American Japanese scholar Francis Fukuyama wrote The End of History and the Last Man. The book argues that the fundamental reason for the drastic change in Eastern Europe and the victory of capitalism during the cold war is that the western democratic system is superior to the socialist democratic system and any other non-western democratic systems. It concludes that the western democratic system will become a universal system and the form for a free democratic government in the western world will eventually be promoted across the world as the ultimate form of government.

However, the experience of China refutes the above prediction. The Chinese Communist Party has not only maintained its power, but also protected social and political stability. In addition, it is proactively exploring its path during the process of summarizing, adjusting and reforming. It insists on walking the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics, and its achievement has attracted worldwide attention. Up until now, socialism, as the initial stage of communism, still demonstrates exuberant vitality. The application of the “Theory of the termination of Communism” in China has been announced a failure.

Endnotes:
[1] http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1995/06/26/203948/index.htm
[2] http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/07/09/100122332/index.htm

Sources:
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, July 21, 2009
http://www.cass.net.cn/file/20090721238356.html
http://www.cass.net.cn/file/20090721238431.html
http://www.cass.net.cn/file/20090721238430.html
http://www.cass.net.cn/file/20090721238429.html
http://www.cass.net.cn/file/20090721238428.html

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http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-07/11/content_11691114.htm

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Claims the U.S. Army Destroyed the Babylonian Ruins
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-07/11/content_11690031.htm

Blacks Not Allowed in the Swimming Pool? Racial Discrimination Reappears in the U.S.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-07/11/content_11690095.htm

Obama: Expected to Visit China in the Second Half of the Year
http://www.jx.xinhuanet.com/news/2009-08/24/content_17481980.htm

U.S.-Russia Relations are Out of the Gutter
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-07/10/content_11683480.htm

Xinjiang Independence Activists (Uyghurs) Cause Trouble in Washington, D.C.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-07/09/content_11676300.htm

From the March 14 Incident to the July 5 Incident: Prejudice in Western Media Remains Unchanged
[Editor’s note: March 14, 2008, Lhasa Protests; July 5, 2009, Urumqi Protests] http://news.xinhuanet.com/herald/2009-07/09/content_11678559.htm

Who is More Elegant: The First Lady of Russia or of the U.S.?
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-07/08/content_11671128.htm

In Russia Obama Discusses "Peace is Precious”
http://www.ah.xinhuanet.com/news/2009-07/08/content_17033670.htm

Jiangyong: Efforts to Save the Market Can Only Sustain Capitalism for a Short While
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-07/08/content_11673011.htm

Enough with this Western "Cold War Mentality"
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-07/07/content_11666127.htm

Five Theories on the Resignation of Palin
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-07/05/content_11654296.htm

U.S. Troops in Afghanistan Trapped in a “Hellish War”
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-07/05/content_11654303.htm

Former Diplomat Verifies U.S.-Japanese “Confidential Nuclear Agreement”
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-07/04/content_11650046.htm

League of Arab States Welcomes Withdrawal of U.S. Troops from Iraqi Cities
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-07/04/content_11644189.htm

U.S. Newspaper: Chinese Traditional Philosophy Can Help Sustainable Development
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-06/30/content_11623717.htm

Shootings in Los Angeles — Ten Dead
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-06/29/content_11616381.htm

Lover of Frivolous U.S. Governor: Divorced and Fluent in Three Languages
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-06/29/content_11616995.htm

Did Michael Jackson Die from an Overdose of Morphine?
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-06/28/content_11613052.htm

Hundreds of Billions in Assets Confiscated from Madoff, the Swindler of the Century
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-06/28/content_11612824.htm

Who Actually Benefits from the Manas Incident? [Editor’s note: On December 6, 2006, a Kyrgyz citizen was shot at the U.S.-led international anti-terrorism coalition’s Ganci air base at Manas, Kyrgyzstan.] http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-06/28/content_11612809.htm

U.S. Official Said Armed Forces Will Not be Used to Inspect North Korean Ships
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-06/28/content_11613304.htm

NATO Early-Warning Aircraft Will Be Stationed at the West Gate of China
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-06/27/content_11611103.htm

The World Grieves Michael Jackson
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-06/27/content_11609260.htm

Michael Jackson Passed Away Before His Last Performance
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-06/26/content_11606499.htm

U.S. Governor Disappears for One Week to Be with Lover; Hot Love-Letters Exposed
http://www.hq.xinhuanet.com/photo/2009-06/26/content_16923684.htm

How Many People Have Been Deceived by Google’s "Innocent" Attitude?
http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2009-06/24/content_11590655.htm

Obama Says Iran’s Suppression Will Not Succeed
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-06/24/content_11590164.htm