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People’s Daily: Bringing Manufacturing Back to U.S.? Dream On.

People’s Daily recently published an analysis article evaluating whether there is a chance that manufacturers in China can be attracted to the United States, which is a critical cornerstone of Trump’s strategy. However, capital always seeks low-cost, high-profit destinations. The most profitable industry for the U.S. is the financial industry instead of manufacturing. The last three projects Trump had before he won the presidency resulted in U.S. manufacturers losing at least US$350 million to low-cost Chinese products. Trump’s campaign T-Shirts were made in China and Honduras. Robots can help, but that won’t add more jobs. The U.S. may be able to improve on the high-end manufacturing as a high-tech power, but that won’t significantly improve employment. The article also identified the lack of blue collar labor resources in the U.S. population as a major problem to re-establish manufacturing on a large scale. Manufactures are more likely to move to India, Vietnam, Myanmar, or Cambodia instead of the U.S. Another immediate obstacle the U.S. will face is that the United States no longer has the full supply chain from the natural resource to supporting parts suppliers. The author concluded that Trump was just bragging – the best case is that he could move manufacturers out of China, but not into the U.S.

Source: People’s Daily, December 31, 2016
http://original.hubpd.com/c/2016-12-31/552491.shtml

BBC Chinese: China Will Ban Ivory Trade before the End of 2017

BBC Chinese recently reported that the Chinese government announced it will ban ivory trading before the end of the year 2017. Animal protection organizations recognized this decision as “historic.” The Chinese State Council put in place the regulations for a phased approach to the discontinuation of the sales of ivory-based products as well as the business of manufacturing them. Currently China is the largest ivory market in the world. Seventy percent of the world’s ivory products have China as the intended final destination. The price of ivory In China is US$1,100 per kilogram. In China today 34 companies are authorized ivory manufacturers and 143 are authorized retail stations. A recent study on African elephants showed that, in the last seven years, the elephant population there shrank by one third. Both the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) indicated that the Chinese decision will make a major contribution to saving elephants, which are an endangered species.

Source: BBC Chinese, December 30, 2016
http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-38473312

Mainland Movie Market Sees Sharp Decline in Box Office

Well-known Chinese news site Sina recently reported that the Mainland movie market is suffering a dramatic free-fall. According to the latest statistics, the total box office from April to September saw a ten percent decline year-over-year. The Chinese Mainland commercial movie market has been on a path of rapid growth for many years. It has been one of the fastest growing industries in China. The year-over-year growth rate in 2015 was 50 percent. Many experts expressed the belief earlier that China will beat the United Sates to become the largest movie market in the world and will reach a US$10 billion domestic box office level in 2016. However, the movie industry is now seeing a negative growth rate at the point of only three weeks from the end of the year end. Analysts suggested that the primary reasons for the decline are the significant reduction in discounted tickets, as well as the government’s crack-down on cinemas that forge box office statistics.

Source: Sina, December 14, 2016
http://finance.sina.com/bg/usstock/sinacn/20161214/23561535489.html

Xinhua Published Six Commentaries on U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike

Immediately after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced the interest rate increase, Xinhua published a series of six commentaries on the matter. The commentaries generally indicated that the Fed’s interest rate hike will trigger major global financial market adjustments. Xinhua pointed out that the U.S. economy holds a 22 percent weight in the global economy and the U.S dollar is used in 60 to 80 percent of the global trade. Thus, the United States has been benefiting a lot from the dollar’s reserve currency position. The U.S. should not forget where those extra profits came from. One of the commentaries suggested that some countries, especially some emerging economies, may suffer financial turmoil due to their high debt ratio. Xinhua also questioned whether the U.S. economy is capable of sustaining the rapid future interest rate increase plan that the Fed laid out. Some commentaries concluded that the projected increases next year may “disrupt global markets.” The Chinese stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets all suffered significant declines after the Fed’s announcement.

The Xinhua commentaries (December 15, 2016):

The Global Economy Should Be Concerned about the Risks from the Pace of the Fed’s Rate Hikes
http://news.xinhuanet.com/finance/2016-12/15/c_1120126522.htm

The U.S. Should Bear Its Global Responsibilities as the World’s Primary Reserve Currency Issuer
http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2016-12/15/c_1120126610.htm

The RMB Exchange Rate Has Its Own Rhythm to Maintain Long-term Stability
http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2016-12/15/c_1120126810.htm#cj_test

Will the U.S. Fed Rate Hike Affect the Chinese People’s Pocketbook?
http://news.xinhuanet.com/finance/2016-12/15/c_1120126634.htm

We Need to Take Good Care of Ourselves with or without A U.S. Interest Rate Hike
http://news.xinhuanet.com/comments/2016-12/15/c_1120126798.htm

China’s Macroeconomic Policy Needs to Balance among Multiple Objectives after the U.S. Interest Rate Hike
http://news.xinhuanet.com/finance/2016-12/15/c_1120126859.htm

RFA: China Has Become the Largest Fake Product Source for Canada’s Online Market

Radio Free Asia (RFA) recently reported that statistics showed China is now the largest source of counterfeit products for Canada’s online market. The International Anti-Counterfeit Coalition called for stopping the fake products at their origin. With the increasing popularity of online shopping, the counterfeits are being delivered via small express mail packages rather than traditional wholesale shipments, which significantly worsens the situation for Canadian law enforcement. According to lawyers who specialize in anti-counterfeiting cases, around 80 percent of the counterfeits are from China, although more and more manufacturers are moving to places like Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines. The International Anti-Counterfeit Coalition is working with the supply-chain level Chinese platform vendors such as Alibaba and Taobao to stop counterfeit transactions within 24 hours of receiving complaints.

Source: Radio Free Asia, December 7, 2016
http://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/zw-12072016111140.html

Cai Fang: China’s Reasonable Economic Growth Rate Should Be between 6.2 and 6.7 Percent

On November 22, 2016, Cai Fang, Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, spoke at a forum on “The Ever-evolving Global Political and Economic Pattern: Integration or Fragmentation?” Cai informed those in attendance that China’s reasonable growth rate is in the range 6.2 to 6.7 percent. He postulated that, if the growth rate is above this range, it is coming from stimulus and not just from the potential growth rate and the effect of reform.

At the forum, Cai Fang stated that, according to his calculations, China’s potential growth will only be 6.2 percent during the “Thirteenth Five-Year-Plan” period [2016-2020], assuming there are no new reforms. This can be regarded as the lower limit of China’s economic growth.

If the possible effect of reform is modeled on this calculation, the growth rate may reach 6.7 percent, which should be an upper limit. In other words, China’s economic growth has a reasonable range of 6.2 to 6.7 percent.

Source: Caixin, November 23, 2016
http://finance.caixin.com/2016-11-23/101013062.html

Wei Jianing: China’s Economic Statistics Have Significant Holes

Wei Jianing, the well-known economist and the Macroeconomic Inspector for the State Council Development Research Center, recently delivered an important speech at the Chinese Finance 40 Forum. Wei mentioned two key challenges that he observed when analyzing the economy. The first was the difficulty in obtaining accurate and correct information. A large number of local statistics have resulted from “discussions” among local Party and government leaders and the local Bureau of Statistics. Their reports to the central government then “matched” the discussed numbers thereby looking official. Wei called for reform to establish an independent system of statistics. The second challenge mentioned in the speech was the transparency of decision making – at least for the currency policies. Currently it is very difficult to find out who is making policy decisions. Wei called for an independent central bank, at least for documenting the decisions and the names of the decision makers. He recommended that the official records be released to the public periodically. The United States Federal Reserve releases these records every five years.

Source: Sohu, November 1, 2016
http://business.sohu.com/20161101/n472057932.shtml

China Times: Ninety Percent of Pension Fund Individual Accounts Are Empty

China Times, a national daily newspaper focusing on economic and financial news, recently reported that the Social Security and Insurance Administrative Center of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security (MOHRSS) released its 2015 Annual Report on Social Security and Insurance Developments. The Report showed that, last year, six provinces suffered a loss in pension funds and the money in individual accounts declined by one third. On a national level, by the end of 2015, the entire amount of Pension Fund Individual Accounts was valued at RMB 4,714.4 billion (around US$700 billion). However, the statistics in the Report indicated that only ten percent of that total was actually funded with available money. With a rapidly aging population, China’s pension funds face more and more funding issues, and there is a discussion underway to convert individual accounts to “nominal accounts.”

Source: China Times, October 14, 2016
http://www.chinatimes.cc/article/61390.html