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Caixin: Fitch Published Special Report on China’s Rating

Well-known Chinese financial news site Caixin recently reported that Fitch Ratings just released its special report on China’s sovereign rating. After both S&P and Moody’s downgraded China’s outlook, Fitch kept its China rating unchanged. However, Fitch’s report pointed out that the Chinese economy does have structural risks. China will suffer the burden of high debts. The Chinese economy currently has had a high leverage ratio, which the indicator of “Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy” demonstrated. According to China’s official numbers, it reached 198 percent of the total GDP. Fitch expressed the belief that the number in reality might be closer to 250 percent. Fitch leaves the current China rating unchanged based on the fact that China still maintains a high level of foreign exchange reserve, but the key factor that impacts the rating is how China plans to conduct its structural reform, which should lead to sustainability. The Fitch report cautioned that the Chinese government’s strategic roadmap for its structural reform remains unclear.
Source: Caixin, April 6, 2016
http://finance.caixin.com/2016-04-06/100928909.html

Salaries of 48 CEOs of Publicly Traded SOEs Released

Xinhua recently published an article about the salaries that the CEOs of 48 publicly traded State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) received. The analysis pointed out that of the 48 CEOs of publicly traded SOEs, 18 of them saw their salaries drop while four companies saw salaries increase over the rate of 100 percent. The gap between the highest and lowest paid CEOs is six million yuan (US$930,000). The report indicated that the pay rate was directly tied to the financial performance of the company. It further stated that the change in the rate of pay started at the beginning of 2015 following the launch of a salary reform plan. The result appears to be a healthy trend. The next phase is expected to be among the second and third tier of the SOE companies and local SOEs.

Source: Xinhua, April 11, 2016
http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2016-04/11/c_128881758.htm

No Solution for China’s Economic Problems

An article that spread widely on the Internet argued that, without human rights and a system of law, there will be no economic prosperity. Therefore, there is no solution for China’s economic problems.

"A mainstream of belief in finance is that currency is created by credit. "How is credit created? ‘Human rights create a market and the rule of law creates credit.’ The foundation of a market economy is equal exchange. Without human rights how can you and I accomplish an equal exchange?

"Only when the king cannot take over your property at will can he be forced to buy it from you. Then a market economy will exist. If there is a super power, not only will the super power not trade with you equally, but neither will anyone in the market. If the king can just confiscate people’s property at will, why should a person try to work hard to make money? Wouldn’t it be faster if that person just flattered the king so he would confiscate some other people’s money instead? Therefore, without human rights, the order of a market economy will be damaged. People will go after power. They will not use the means of fair competition to make money.

"Human rights creates equal trade; trade creates a market. It is just that equal trade is not enough. If people trade with each other equally, then they can cheat each other equally, too. This will make the cost of trade too high. How can they expand credit? They can’t just rely on conscience; they must also rely on the rule of law. The rule of law can create a modern financial system. China’s financial system is not fully developed. The main reason is it lacks the rule law.

"China’s law system is not just unable to support the modern financial system; it is unable to support even basic credit activities."
 
Source:  Amazon
https://s3.amazonaws.com/letscorp_archive/archives/103240

Caijing: How Big Is China’s Debt?

According to the McKinsey Global Institute, in 2015, China’s debt, including the financial industry’s debt, increased to US$28.2 trillion, or 282 percent of its GDP level. Its debt was US$7.4 trillion in 2007, as reported in a Caijing article.

"In a few years, real estate development, local government’s heavy borrowing, and the rapid expansion of "shadow banks" (institutes that function as banks but without a government permit) have turned China into a country of heavy debt. Most worrisome is that much of the money that is owed will never be paid back. Local governments have taken on so many projects that not only are they unable to pay the interest, but they are also unlikely to give back the original principle that was invested."

Source: Caijing, April 1, 2016
http://blog.caijing.com.cn/expert_article-151640-89838.shtml

BBC Chinese: S&P Downgraded China’s Rating

BBC Chinese recently reported that, at the end of March, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) downgraded its outlook on China’s sovereign bonds from stable to negative. The downgrade reflects concerns over China’s economy in general, as the world’s second largest economy is slowing amid a rebalancing that increasingly brings economic and financial risks. S&P expressed its belief, in an announcement sent to BBC Chinese, that it expects China to see some improvements in the next five years and China’s credit growth will slow. However, S&P also expects the financial leverage situation of the Chinese government and enterprises will worsen. In the meantime, S&P predicts that China’s investment weight in its GDP will remain far above the sustainable 30 to 35 percent. 
Source: BBC Chinese, March 31, 2016
http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/china/2016/03/160331_standard_poors_china_economy_outlook

Chinese Citizens Transacted US$133 Trillion Overseas on Their Credit Cards in 2015

People’s Daily reported that, according to the statistics that the State Administration of Foreign Exchange published, in 2015, Chinese citizens spent US$133 trillion using their credit cards in transactions overseas. The foreign countries include Hong Kong, Macau, the U.S., Japan, and Korea. The category that had the largest spending was consumable goods, which accounted for 63 percent or 83.6 trillion while the second largest amount was cash withdrawals, which amounted to 23.1 trillion or 17 percent. The balance of the money, that is, the amount over that 80 percent, was spent on lodging, meals, transportation, education, and other services.

Source: People’s Daily, April 1, 2016
http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2016/0401/c1004-28242926.html

Guangming Daily: Chinese Companies Increase Overseas Acquisitions to Gain a Global Advantage

Guangming Daily published an article on Chinese companies’ overseas acquisitions, including a recent one on March 30 in which Midea spent US$473 million to acquire an 80.1 percent share of the stock in Toshiba. Also, on January 15, GE sold its appliance business to China Haier for US$5.4 billion.

The article stated that the move is part of the effort that the Chinese manufacturing companies are making in order to gain a competitive advantage in the world’s market. The article quoted a statement that a Chinese businessman made, saying that China’s overseas acquisitions grew 40 percent in 2015. According to the article, in today’s world, China lags behind in technology and brand recognition. China wishes to improve its competitive advantage and increase its overseas market share through mergers and acquisitions. The article stated, “In order for China to enter the world market, China is required to increase communication and cooperation with other companies.” 

According to statistics that the Ministry of Commerce released, among the overseas investments that Chinese companies made in 2014, manufacturing ranked 5th, following leases and commercial services, the financial industry, coal mining, retail, and distribution.

Source: Guangming Daily, April 1, 2016
http://economy.gmw.cn/2016-04/01/content_19533590.htm

Urbanization and China’s Housing Inventory

Xinhua’s Economic Information Daily recently published an article reporting on discussions that the attendees at the 2016 Boao Forum for Asia had about China’s large housing inventory. They expressed the belief that, in order for China to be successful in reducing its housing inventory, the number of new local residents must increase. About 70 percent of China’s real estate inventory is located in third or fourth tier cities such as capitals of less developed provinces, prefecture-level cities, and county-level cities. 

According to the article, experts at the forum pointed out that new residents who come to these cities may be the primary group to reduce the housing inventory. Urbanization based on population has reached 56 percent while urbanization based on registered urban residents is 37.5 percent, 18.6 percentage points lower. Farmers who left the countryside to work and live in the cities do not enjoy the same benefits in terms of pay, education, social security and housing, which makes it hard for them to take root in the cities. To incentivize these former farmers to buy houses in the cities requires the reform of the urban household registration system to allow them to register as well as solutions to other issues they face, such as enabling them to dispose of and liquidate their old farm houses. 

Source: Economic Information Daily, March 31, 2016 
http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2016-03/31/c_128850177.htm