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National Bureau of Statistics: Housing Market Still at Key Crossroads

China Review News (CRN) recently reported that the National Bureau of Statistics released its June report on the housing market. The report showed that 25 out of 70 major and mid-sized Chinese cities reported housing price increases. That number is 19 more than the number from May. However, most of the cities have lower prices than last year. For example, for new real estate, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen fell 1.3 percent, 1.9 percent, 1.6 percent, and 2.5 percent, respectively. Experts suggested that there are 3 reasons of the recent June price rebound: 1) Lower interest rates (the central bank lowered the interest rate twice in one month); 2) Worries in the market of the possibility of a big price rebound; 3) Some sellers obtained good sales results after lowering prices earlier and are now marking the prices up. It is widely believed that the government imposed market adjustments are still at a critical stage before housing prices return to a reasonable level. 
Source: China Review News, July 18, 2012
http://www.zhgpl.com/doc/1021/7/1/3/102171322.html?coluid=45&kindid=0&docid=102171322&mdate=0718160342

China News Review: We Need to Be Fully Prepared for Economic Difficulties

China News Review published an opinion article about China’s current economic environment. According to the article, from July 13 to 15, Premier Wen Jiabao visited Chengdu City in Sichuan Province, where he held a forum on the current economic climate in Henan, Hunan, Guangxi, Sichuan and Shanxi provinces. According to Wen, China’s economic growth rate is in a steady and stable state and still within the expected target set at the beginning of the year. However, the current economic climate is not showing signs of improvement. The economic difficulties are expected to continue for an extended period of time.

China News Review cited figures that the Ministry of Statistics published, saying GDP for the first half grew 7.8 percent, down from 8.1 percent in the first quarter. GDP for the second quarter grew 7.6 percent, falling below 8 percent for the first time in three years. The official June Purchasing Manager’s Index reached 50.2, an indication that there is still growth in the manufacturing sector. The article stated, “The statistics for the second quarter suggest that China’s economy is facing tougher challenges than expected and will not see signs of recovery very soon.”

Source: China News Review, July 17, 2012
http://opinion.china.com.cn/opinion_14_46714.html

Premier Wen Jiabao Warns of a Tougher Labor Market Ahead

On July 17, 2012, the National Work Force Employment Conference was held in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Premier Wen Jiabao attended the conference and spoke on labor issues. He stressed the importance of creating job opportunities and noted that it is a top priority to protect and secure people’s livelihoods. Wen asked all levels of government bodies to gain a better understanding of the urgency. He also recognized that the current and future job market faces more complicated and serious challenges and said that a bigger effort was needed to create more job opportunities.
 
According to official statistics, in urban and rural areas, a total of 98 million new employment positions were created between 2003 to 2011. Among those 40 million were for college graduates, 30 million were for workers from state-owned enterprises who had been laid off, and 28 million were for laid off workforce who had re-entered the work force. By the end of 2011, the total number of peasant workers had reached 250 million, up by 139 million from 2003. Each year, there are a total 12 million professional workers taking middle to advanced vocational education classes and 150 million taking training courses.

Source: Xinhua, July 18, 2012
http://news.xinhuanet.com/2012-07/17/c_112460838.htm

China’s Private Enterprises Are in Dire Straits

An 18-year-old mechanical processing company in the Pearl River Delta is facing difficulties just trying to survive. The head of the company posted a message on the Internet to complain about his situation. The message went viral on the Internet because it resonated with so many others. From the message, one can gauge the many problems that the company faces: The extremely narrow financing channels, rapidly increasing labor costs, a high tax burden, asset bubbles and inflation, and gray expenditures (money that must be spent "under the table"). The company is an individual case. However, it resonated with many others because private enterprises face a similar plight.

In recent years, due to the banks reluctance to lend, private enterprises have had to turn to loan sharks; raise their employees pay; in spite of structural tax cut calls, "decreases" have gradually, to the contrary, resulted in de facto "increases"; rising housing prices have led to higher rents, and rising inflation has caused the cost of raw materials to increase, so that private enterprises’ operating costs have risen faster. State-owned enterprises and local governments strictly control the high-profit industries, so private enterprises can only try to survive in the low-profit areas.

In the end, some private enterprises faced the dire fate of either having to close down or, in utter defeat, to hand their business over to others.

Source: Beijing News, July 17, 2012
http://www.bjnews.com.cn/finance/2012/07/17/210658.html

BBC: Chinese Official Media Worry about Anti-Government Remarks Online

Recently, China’s official media have expressed concern in their commentaries about a decrease in the government’s credibility and the proliferation of anti-government remarks online. Public opinion in China, especially online public opinion expressing “anti-official voices,” is almost out of control. It is no longer a secret that the Chinese government at every level employs a large number of "Fifty Cent Party Members" (who earn 50 cents for each pro-government posting online). The Communist Party has failed to control the minds of the younger generation.

Source: BBC Chinese Edition, July 14, 2012
http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/simp/chinese_news/2012/07/120714_china_internet_weibo.shtml

Qiushi Journal: Is China’s economy Really Heading Downstream?

On July 16, 2012, Qiushi, a journal of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, published an article titled “Is China’s Economy Really Heading Downstream?” The article’s writer expressed the belief that, although China’s economic growth has indeed been slowing down for the past 5 consecutive seasons, the current economic slowdown is still within a normal range. He asserted that, as Southeast Asian countries have a more obvious advantage in terms of  labor cost, it is an inevitable trend for China to make some adjustments in terms of labor-intensive manufacturing and foreign trade structures and that, with China’s $3.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves, a short-term deficit won’t seriously impact China’s economy.

Source: Qiushi Journal, July 16, 2012
http://www.qstheory.cn/zxdk/2012/201214/201207/t20120712_169555.htm

CRN: China still has Three Policy Tools to Stabilize the Economy

China Review News (CRN) recently published an article that discussed the strategy for dealing with the current decline of the Chinese economy. The author suggested that the Chinese government still has three policy tools that it can use: (1) With the decline of the CPI (Consumer Price Index), China has more room to reduce the interest rate; (2) The government can still increase direct investments into the economy, although this may have a negative effect; (3) The central government can temporarily relax the restrictions on local governments’ borrowing power. The article expressed the belief that the government should determine a minimum risk control line which would serve as an indicator of whether or not to use some of these policy tools.
Source: China Review News, July 14, 2012
http://www.zhgpl.com/doc/1021/6/7/2/102167204.html?coluid=53&kindid=0&docid=102167204&mdate=0714062027

The U.S. Controls the Energy Card

The International Herald Leader recently published an article that suggested that the United States holds an “energy card” in its hands that it can play against China. Not long ago, the U.S. offered China relief from a sanction applying to any country that buys oil from Iran. However the relief is only effective for 6 months. The article expressed the belief that it is unfair for the U.S. to tell China which country China can buy oil from. However, the author admitted that the U.S. has 3 “energy advantages”: (1) China relies significantly more on Middle East oil than the United States does; (2) The U.S. has many more ways to influence the international oil price than China has; (3) The U.S. has a large degree of energy independence, while China is now the world’s biggest importer of energy. The article concluded by calling for serious consideration of the “worst case scenario,” which is that the U.S. can play the energy card to strategically suppress China.
Source: International Herald Leader, July 10, 2012
http://ihl.cankaoxiaoxi.com/2012/0710/59111.shtml