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China Rushing to Buy Up Wheat Via Foreign Trade

Chinese stock market news site Stock Star recently reported that China is scouring the world for wheat, with annual imports on track to hit a record high as recent heavy rains have damaged domestic crops. Wheat traders say that China has ordered large quantities of wheat in October, buying from a number of major exporters including the United States, Canada and France. The current buying spree follows high-volume wheat purchases from Australia earlier this year.

Growing wheat demand from China is adding uncertainty to supply chains that are increasingly vulnerable to war and protectionist trade policies. Chinese imports totaled a record 9.96 million tons last year as the agricultural sector shifted to use more wheat as animal feed and Chinese citizens ate more bread. China is currently competing with Egypt to become the world’s largest Wheat importer. Chinese overseas procurement volume in the first eight months of 2023 has reached 9.56 million tons, of which more than 60 percent came from Australia.

China’s summer wheat output fell by 0.9 percent this year to 134.53 million tons, the first decline in seven years. Continued rains have caused the quality of 30 million to 40 million tons of wheat to deteriorate as this year’s crops near harvest, making the grains suitable for livestock feed but unsuitable for human consumption. Much of China’s recent buying activity has resulted from these weather problems.

Source: Stock Star, October 12, 2023
https://wap.stockstar.com/detail/IG2023101300008165

HKET: China Bans Mainland Chinese Investors from Opening Foreign Trading Accounts

The Hong Kong Economic Times (HKET) reported that the Shanghai Supervision Bureau of the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a notice on September 28 requiring Chinese securities firms to stop providing new investors from Mainland China with securities trading services via Hong Kong accounts and other offshore accounts. Existing accounts held by Mainland Chinese are to be strictly monitored so as to prevent investors from bypassing China’s foreign exchange regulatory rules. This is the first time that China has explicitly limited Mainland Chinese investors ability to use foreign trading accounts.

The move serves to limit capital outflows and to support the RMB, which is facing downward pressure. The targeted offshore accounts are relatively more difficult for the authorities to control. This contrasts with cross-border trading through formally-sanctioned channels such as Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, where the authorities are better able to ensure that Mainland investors’ funds will be managed in a “closed loop,” that is, when securities are sold, the funds will immediately flow back into the RMB instead of into another currency. When Chinese investors use offshore investment accounts to invest abroad, it is more difficult for the Chinese authorities to manage the use currencies other than the RMB.

Although the new instruction does not clearly specify the implementation date, sources said that the regulatory agency’s intention is for the regulation to take effect immediately. Brokerages will need to remove apps or websites that attract Mainland customers by the end of October.

The article by HKET, which is Hong Kong’s leading financial daily paper, cited Reuters, which in turn cited four anonymous sources.

Sources:
HKET, October 12, 2023
https://tinyurl.com/55k8dwyr

Yahoo Finance Hong Kong, October 12, 2023
https://tinyurl.com/muy2tsvz

CCP Reduces Functions of China’s Central Bank

China’s State Council recently announced an adjustment to the structure and responsibilities of China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China:

  1. The State Council Financial Stability and Development Committee and its office will no longer be retained. Its responsibilities will be transferred to the office of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) Central Financial Committee. The Secretariat of the State Council Financial Stability and Development Committee, previously located within the People’s Bank of China, will be transferred to the office of the CCP’s Central Financial Committee.
  2. The daily supervisory responsibilities for financial holding companies and other financial groups will be transferred to the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission.
  3. The responsibilities for establishing and improving the basic system for the protection of financial consumers will be transferred to the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission.

The People’s Bank of China will reduce 30 administrative positions and 6 leadership positions at the bureau level. After these adjustments, the People’s Bank of China will have 20 internal institutions, with 714 administrative positions and 87 leadership positions at the bureau level.

Chinese news website Aboluo published an article saying that analysts believe this move reflects Xi Jinping’s increasing centralization of power in the CCP’s Central Committee over the State Council, diminishing the role of Premier Li Qiang. Also, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission is believed to be under the control of Xi’s confidant He Lifeng.

Sources:
1. China Government website, October 13, 2023
https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/202310/content_6908743.htm
2. Aboluo, October 14, 2023
https://www.aboluowang.com/2023/1014/1965621.html

Xi Jinping Announces Eight-Point Action Plan for Belt for Road

Beijing held the Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation on October 18. Xi Jinping gave a keynote address, announcing an eight-point action plan for China’s development of the “Belt and Road” Initiative:

  1. Construct a three-dimensional interconnected network for the “Belt and Road.” China will accelerate the high-quality development of the China-Europe Railway Express, participate in the construction of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, organize the China-Europe Railway Express International Cooperation Forum, and work with all parties to establish a new Eurasian logistics corridor supported by direct rail and road. China will actively promote the integrated development of “Silk Road Ocean Shipping,” expedite the construction of new land-sea transportation channels and the Air Silk Road.
  2. Support the development of an open world economy. China will establish “Silk Road e-commerce” cooperation pilot zones, sign free trade treaties and investment protection treaties with more countries, comprehensively remove foreign investment access restrictions in the manufacturing sector, and actively align with international high-standard economic and trade rules. China will deepen cross-border trade in services and high-level openness for investment, expand market access for digital products, and reform in areas such as state-owned enterprises, the digital economy, intellectual property, and government procurement. China will also host a “Global Digital Trade Expo” annually. In the next five years (2024-2028), China’s total imports and exports of goods and services are expected to surpass $32 trillion and $5 trillion US dollars, respectively.
  3. Promote practical cooperation. China will coordinate the promotion of landmark projects and “small but beautiful” livelihood projects. The China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China will each establish 350 billion RMB financing windows, while the Silk Road Fund will inject an additional 80 billion RMB. These initiatives will support co-building the “Belt and Road” projects in a market-oriented and commercial way. During this summit, the Entrepreneur Conference reached 97.2 billion US dollars in project cooperation agreements. China will also implement 1,000 small livelihood assistance projects, promote vocational education cooperation with foreign countries through the “Luban Workshops” (master-craftsman workshops), and enhance security guarantees for co-building “Belt and Road” projects and personnel.
  4. Promote green development. China will continue to deepen cooperation with other countries in areas such as green infrastructure, green energy, and green transportation. They will support the “Belt and Road” Green Development International Alliance, continue to host the “Belt and Road” Green Innovation Conference, establish a photovoltaic industry dialogue and exchange mechanism, and a green low-carbon expert network. They will implement the “Belt and Road” Green Investment Principles and provide training for 100,000 people from partner countries by 2030.
  5. Advance technological innovation. China will continue to implement the “Belt and Road” Science and Technology Innovation Action Plan, hold the first “Belt and Road” Science and Technology Exchange Conference, expand the joint laboratories established with various parties to 100 in the next five years, support short-term work by young scientists from various countries in China, and propose a global initiative on the governance of artificial intelligence (AI) during this summit. China is willing to strengthen exchanges and dialogue with all countries to promote the healthy, orderly, and secure development of global AI.
  6. Support people-to-people exchange. China will host the “Liangzhu Forum” to deepen cultural dialogues with the “Belt and Road” participating countries. In addition to the Silk Road International Theater, Art Festival, museums, art galleries, and library alliances already established, China will create a Silk Road Tourist City Alliance. China will continue the “Silk Road” Chinese Government Scholarship Program.
  7. Build a clean (non-corruptive) “Belt and Road.” China, together with its partners, will release the “Effectiveness and Prospects of Clean Construction of the ‘Belt and Road'” and introduce “High-Level Principles for Clean Construction of the ‘Belt and Road'” during this summit. China will establish an assessment system on “Belt and Road” enterprises’ “clean” (non-corruptive) compliance and cooperate with international organizations in research and training on clean training.
  8. Improve the international cooperation mechanism for the “Belt and Road.” China will strengthen the construction of multilateral cooperation platforms in various fields such as energy, taxation, finance, green development, disaster reduction, anti-corruption, think tanks, media, culture, and more with countries co-building the “Belt and Road.” They will continue to hold the “Belt and Road” International Cooperation Summit Forum and establish a summit forum secretariat.

Source: Website of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, October 18, 2023
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/zyxw/202310/t20231018_11162839.shtml

China’s 2022 Marriage Registrations below Seven Million, Marking New Low

China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs released its 2022 report showing that only 6.835 million legal marriages were registered last year. This represents a 10.6% drop from 2021 and the first year in recent history with fewer than 7 million marriages.

A Yicai report linked the sharp decline in marriages to (1) people delaying their first marriages, (2) a smaller population of marriage-aged people, (3) changes in mindset among the marriage-aged population, and (4) the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Statistics show that marriages in China fell below 10 million in 2019, below 9 million in 2020, below 8 million in 2021, and now below 7 million in 2022. The trend of decline in marriages has continued for 9 years following the peak of 13.469 million marriages registered in 2013.

Age distribution data show that only 15.2% of marriages in 2022 were entered by people 20-24 years old, down 1.3 percentage points from the year before. A health official said that those born in 1990s and 2000s who grew up in cities with more education and job competition are delaying marriage and children.

Source: Radio Free Asia, October 15, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/Xinwen/4-10152023113812.html

Nearly 20% of China’s Population is Over 60

China’s elderly population continues to grow, according to the latest data released by China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs. By the end of 2022, China had 208 million people aged 60 and over, accounting for nearly 20% of the total population. This indicates that the country’s population is rapidly aging. An official Xinhua commentary said that population aging will remain a long-term challenge for China.

In 2021, Chinese people aged 60+ totaled 267 million, making up 18.9% of the population. The 65+ population was 257 million, or 14.2% of the total. The new data for 2022 illustrates the continued rise in China’s proportion of elderly  people.

Demographic data show that the aging trend will likely accelerate in the coming years. During China’s 14th Five-Year Plan period from 2026-2030, the number of elderly aged 60+ is expected to exceed 300 million as the country enters a phase of “moderate aging.” Around 2035, the elderly population will surpass 400 million, a phase of “severe aging.”

Population aging presents economic and social challenges for China in areas like healthcare, pensions, and elder care. An official commentary said it is a “long-term fundamental situation affecting the nation,  which China will need to adapt to through supportive policies and services.”

China will need to prepare for a society that will have over 400 million elderly by 2035. In 2022, China spent over 42 billion yuan (US$5.8 billion) on elderly welfare and over 17 billion yuan (US$2.3 billion) on elderly services.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), October 16, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202310160131.aspx

China Imports/Exports Continued Decline in September

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDQ: SINA) recently reported that, according to data released by Chinese General Administration of Customs, China’s September exports totaled US$299.13 billion, down 6.2 percent year-over-year; imports were US$221.42 billion, down 6.2 percent year-over-year. Total import-export value in September was US$520.55 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 6.2 percent.

China’s September trade surplus was US$77.71 billion, down 6 percent year-over-year. Since August of last year, the year-over-year growth rate of China’s exports to the United States has been negative. This past September, China’s exports to the United States recorded a year-over-year decline of 9.3 percent. China’s exports to the EU recorded a year-over-year decrease of 11.6 percent. September exports to ASEAN countries fell by 15.8 percent year-over-year.

Meanwhile, China’s exports to Russia increased by 21 percent year-over-year, a significantly increase over the 16 percent year-over-year figure recorded for the previous month. China’s imports from Russia increased by 8 percent during the same period.

Affected by geopolitical factors, China’s imports of IC chips continued to decline, especially imports from South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan.

Taking into account the downward pressure on external demand for Chinese exports, Sina said to expect that it will take some time before absolute levels of exports are restored to previous levels.

Source: Sina, October 13, 2023
https://stock.finance.sina.com.cn/stock/go.php/vReport_Show/kind/lastest/rptid/750548175594/index.phtml

Photonmedia: Hong Kong Tourism From Mainland China 30 Percent Lower Than 2018

Hong Kong news site Photonmedia recently reported that post-COVID recovery in Hong Kong tourism has not been as expected. The Hong Kong government hoped to revive the island’s economy after Beijing lifted its Zero Covid policy, resuming fireworks displays and a series of night-time activities.

Recently China had an eight-day holiday starting from the beginning of October. Compared with 2018, the number of Mainland tourists and tour groups entering during this year’s October holiday is down nearly 30 percent. In addition, the way tourists travel in Hong Kong has also changed, and they no longer spend large amounts of money.

According to the daily immigration statistics of the HK Immigration Department, there were 514,000 arrivals on October 1, of which 178,000 were Mainland tourists; 20,000 were foreign visitors from outside China and Hong Kong. Compared with October 1, 2018, both figures fell by approximately 30 percent.

The number of tour groups visiting from the Mainland also continues to decline. On October 1, 2017, about 200 tour groups visited Hong Kong; in 2018, this number dropped by nearly half; as of this year, there are only 75 groups.

The Hong Kong government originally hoped to use the region’s well-known fireworks displays to stimulate tourism-related industries, especially hotel occupancy rates. However, many Mainland tourists have been visiting Hong Kong on a “one-day trip” basis. A popular online tour guide even suggested “If you bring food on this day, about 100 yuan (around US$14) should be enough. There is no other expense”.

Source: Photonmedia, October 2, 2023

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