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CNA: China Cancels or Delays Purchase of One Million Tons of Australian Wheat

Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that China has cancelled or postponed about one million tons of Australian wheat imports and about 500,000 tons of U.S. wheat imports.

Farmers are currently in a cycle of overproduction, and global wheat prices are falling, reaching their lowest point in three and a half years. China, the world’s largest wheat importer, canceled or postponed wheat purchase plans for the end of last year and early this year, anticipating the falling prices.

A Singapore-based commodities trader who sells wheat to Asian countries said that Chinese buyers have canceled some Australian wheat transactions and have delayed shipments from the first quarter to the second and third quarters. Another trader said that trading companies have canceled previously-scheduled shipments at Australian ports that were originally scheduled for transport to China. Since the beginning of this year, the volume for wheat futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has fallen by more than 14 percent, reaching the lowest trading volume since August of 2020.

Australia accounts for 10-15 percent of the global wheat trade of 100 million tons per year. The Australian wheat industry is mainly export-oriented, with 65-75 percent of the country’s total output sold to more than 50 countries around the world. Australia is China’s third largest wheat supplier, following the United States and Canada.

Source: CNA, March 14, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202403140293.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

China’s Shifting Strategy: Overseas Investment in the Electric Vehicle Industry

A report from the American think tank Rhodium Group suggests that China likely set a new record in outward direct investment in the EV industry last year. This year, China’s overseas investment in EV will remain strong, but will shift from primarily investing in the battery sector to manufacturing electric cars in Europe, Latin America, and Asia. This shift will aim to appeal to host countries’ demand for high value-added investment and job creation in exchange for market access.

So far, Chinese EV manufacturers have focused mainly on auto exports rather than on overseas production. The volume of Chinese car exports surged in 2022-2023, triggering an EU anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EV imports. As a result, BYD announced plans to build a car factory in Hungary. This move would bypass potential anti-subsidy tariffs that the EU might impose.

Chinese EV manufacturers realize that the EU welcomes direct investment even though it might block direct auto exports from China. Unlike the U.S., which would strictly scrutinize Chinese EV production on U.S. soil, EU member states compete with each other to provide incentives for Chinese companies. The Rhodium Group anticipates that the EU’s investigation into Chinese EVs will encourage direct investment by the Chinese electric car industry in the EU.

China is also attempting to circumvent U.S. restrictions by investing in US trade agreement partners such as Morocco and Mexico.

Source: Deutsche Well, March 14, 2024
https://p.dw.com/p/4dVjM

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

RFI: Chinese EVs Flooding Europe, Will Challenge Core German Industries

Radio France Internationale (RFI) reported that “Chinese goods are pouring into European markets, and the first wave of repercussions for German industry has begun to take shape.” Below are some key points from the report:

Within China, sales of electric vehicles (EVs), consumer goods, and industrial products have stalled. State-owned enterprises are facing overcapacity. China’s plan [to alleviate the overcapacity] is to flood the European market with these products.

Products from China no longer just involve steel batteries and solar panels, which dominated the market for years with unparalleled prices. The mechanical engineering industry is another area where China has over-invested, and Chinese goods are now putting greater pressure on European manufacturers. It is said that Chinese manufacturers can produce around 50 million cars annually, but domestic demand may only be as much as 23 million vehicles. China plans to export the surplus to the rest of the world.

In terms of technical specifications, Chinese cars are at least comparable to most German cars, but they are often much cheaper in terms of price. “In the near future, a wave of industrial products may spread from China to Germany.” This is a harbinger for serious issues potentially facing Germany’s core automotive industry. Businesses and policymakers must find new answers to address these challenges.

Source: Radio France Internationale, March 15, 2024
https://rfi.my/AQv7

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

China Sees Fewer New Unicorn Startups Amid “Contractionary” Policies

Taiwan’s Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported on data from Shandong-based Chinese weekly newspaper Economic Observer, saying that China saw the emergence of only 15 new “unicorn companies” (startups valued at over $1 billion) during 2023. Meanwhile, the United States added 179 unicorns during the same time period.

Lu Ming, executive dean of the China Development Research Institute at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, noted a widening economic gap between China and the US in the digital sector. Although China ranked second globally in terms of number of unicorn companies, with a total of 316 such companies in 2023, the addition of only 15 new unicorns in 2023 represented a sharp decline compared with new unicorn formation in previous years.

Lu cited four reasons for the widening gap between China and the US: technology, talent, capital markets, and policy factors:

  • The US has a strong advantage in generative AI technology and innovation, particularly in language models trained on vast English content.
  • The US remains a talent hub.
  • Foreign capital markets are better at valuing the growth potential of emerging industries, attracting more investment. In contrast, China’s capital markets lack openness and inclusiveness.
  • “While the US government takes a more diversified approach to emerging trends, China sometimes introduces ‘contractionary’ policies. ‘[The Chinese government] is more sensitive to negative sentiments, and uses contractionary policies to avoid problems. This leads companies to become overly cautious, hampering their development and potentially creating vicious cycles.'”

The CNA article went on to say, “Although the [Economic Observer] report did not provide specific examples, China’s recent antitrust crackdown on platform companies and proposed regulations to tighten control over online games have been seen as ‘contractionary policies that suppress industries,’ affecting business expectations and economic growth. Officials have repeatedly stressed the need for caution in introducing contractionary or restrictive measures.”

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), March 11, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202403110306.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China’s Top 100 Real Estate Firms See January and February Sales Cut in Half

Shanghai-based Chinese financial news site East Money recently reported that in February 2024, the top 100 Chinese real estate companies suffered a sales volume decrease of 20.9 percent month-over-month. The year-over-year decrease for February was 60 percent. Single-month performance hit the lowest point seen in recent years.

During the period January through February 2024, total sales of the top 100 real estate companies had a year-over-year decrease of 51.6 percent. Among these companies, only 14 had sales exceeding RMB 10 billion (around US$1.41 billion), a decrease of 12 compared with the same period last year; eight companies had sales exceeding RMB 5 billion (around US$705 million), a decrease of 18 compared with the same period last year.

Both central state-owned real estate enterprises and private enterprises have been facing pressure. 38 of the top 50 real estate companies experienced a year-over-year sales decrease of more than 50 percent in a single month. Only one company achieved year-over-year growth in the month of February, compared with seven companies in January.

Source: East Money, March 1 2024
https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202403012999671120.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

People’s Daily: Chinese Manufacturing PMI Declined in February

People’s Daily recently reported that, according to data jointly released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, China’s February manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 49.1 percent, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

“The manufacturing industry was in the traditional off-season in February. In addition, the easing of COVID-19 controls means that more employees are returning home for the holidays than in previous years. This has greatly affected the production and operation of [Chinese] companies. The overall activity of the manufacturing industry has declined.”

The production sub-index of the PMI was 49.8 percent, down 1.5 percent from the previous month, reflecting a deceleration of corporate production activities; the new orders sub-index was 49.0 percent, remaining the same as in January. The PMI of large enterprises remained above the critical point, at 50.4 percent, the same reading as the previous month. The PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 49.1 percent, an increase of 0.2 points from the previous month. The small business PMI was 46.4 percent, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from January. The high-tech manufacturing PMI was 50.8 percent, down 0.3 percentage points from January. The PMIs for equipment manufacturing and producers of consumer goods were 49.5 percent and 50.0 percent, respectively, down 0.6 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

Source: People’s Daily, March 2, 2024
http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0302/c1004-40187337.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China Among Largest Foreign Direct Investors in Indonesia’s New Capital City

In 2019 Indonesian President Joko Widodo ratified a motion to move Indonesia’s capital city from Jakarta to the new planned city of Nusantara, which is currently under construction and is to be inaugurated in 2024. China has become one of the biggest foreign investors in this new “smart city,” focusing mainly on infrastructure and industrial projects. The Nusantara Capital Administration has held investment forums and conferences in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, to attract China’s money. Widodo said in October 2023 that in two years Beijing would bypass Singapore to become the country that contributes most to Indonesia in terms of foreign direct investment.

Research published by the University of Kentucky in 2021 showed that China had already invested in “smart cities” in Southeast Asia countries such as Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Myanmar.

Source: Voice of America, March 6, 2024
https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-to-invest-in-indonesia-new-capital-20240305/7514971.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

Growth in Beijing’s “Stability Maintenance” Spending Decelerates

The Second Session of China’s 14th National People’s Congress submitted a report by the Ministry of Finance regarding central and local government budgets in 2023. The report revealed that defense expenditure in 2024 will amount to 1.67 trillion yuan (US$ 230 billion), an increase of 7.2 percent from a year ago, while public security expenditure will be 2276.62 billion yuan, an increase of 1.44 percent. In 2023, public security expenditure (a.k.a. “stability maintenance” expenditure) was 2089.72 billion yuan, representing an increase of 6.4 percent from 2022. The growth rate for stability maintenance spending this year has dropped by nearly five percentage points.

A commentator attributed the decrease in the growth rate of stability maintenance funding to the reduction in central government fiscal revenue. To compensate for reduced fiscal revenue, Beijing has increasingly leaned on local governments and street offices to foot the bill for stability maintenance: “Some 20 percent to 40 percent of local fiscal revenue will be used for stability maintenance.”

To make up for insufficient stability maintenance funding, local governments and local police have been attempting to boost revenue by issuing fines. Some local governments have also implemented temporary policies to increase fees charged to enterprises and individual merchants.

Source: Radio Free Asia, March 6, 2024
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/zhengzhi/gt1-03062024014146.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics Social Stability