Geo-Strategic Trend - 2. page

Canada’s Foreign Interference Commission inquiry has recently entered the witness testimony phase. Representatives from diaspora communities originating from China, India, Russia, and Iran testified about their experiences of intimidation and coercion by their countries of origin.

Witnesses representing Canadian diaspora communities included Uyghur rights activist Mehmet Tohti, Winnie Ng from the Toronto Association for Democracy in China, Grace Dai Wollensak from the Falun Dafa Association of Canada, Jaskaran Sandhu from the Indian Sikh Alliance, Yuriy Novodvorskiy from the Russian-Canadian Democratic Solidarity group, and Iranian-Canadian Hamed Esmailion. Each recounted their personal experiences of harassment and threats from their home countries.

Long-time human rights activist Tohti said he has been unable to see his family since arriving in Canada in 1991. Initially, China denied him and his family permission to travel. In 2016, over 30 of his relatives were detained, severing all contact with Tohti. In early 2023, Chinese police called to say that his mother and two sisters had died, his brother was missing, and that an uncle had been hospitalized — these were threats that he should stop his activism lest more relatives face the same fate.

Wollensak broke down as she spoke about the plight of Falun Gong practitioners. She revealed that they have endured persecution by the Chinese government for over two decades, not only within China but also through the authorities’ transnational crackdown abroad. She added that Falun Gong practitioners living overseas are constantly subjected to intimidation, harassment, cyberattacks, and surveillance. “My account has been deleted, and my IP address has been blocked,” she said, “We are not allowed to express anything that contradicts the CCP’s policies. The ’50-cent party’ and the United Front agents are able to interfere with our lives on a daily basis.”

The witnesses noted the US takes far stronger action against foreign interference [than Canada does], levying charges and convictions. Meanwhile, Canada lacks even a foreign agents registry, leaving complaints unaddressed.

The hearings were sparked by Beijing’s alleged interference in the 2019 and 2021 Canadian elections. Federal Judge Marie-Josée Hogue will hear dozens of further witnesses, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Source: Radio Free Asia, March 28, 2024
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/junshiwaijiao/lf-03282024130615.html

Radio Free Asia (RFA) recently reported that Beijing’s influence in the South Pacific is growing as China increases its investment and diplomatic relations in the region. This situation has caused concern in Fiji. Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka stated recently that he has asked the Chinese police stationed in his country to leave, and that he will review the police cooperation agreement signed with China. He said that the judicial systems and police investigation methods of the two countries are not the same, and that he is uneasy about China’s deployment of public security in the Fiji police force.

Fiji is retaining its police cooperation agreement with China for the time being, allowing senior police officers to continue to receive training in China. The agreement will be under review, however. Rabuka said Chinese diplomats have accepted his decision.

China’s recent investment in the Solomon Islands has attracted attention across the region, and leaders of many South Pacific Island countries are worried that China’s growing influence will lead to the erosion of their democracy and values. Rabuka reminded leaders of relevant countries to be vigilant and consider the price they will have to pay for accepting Chinese investment. Fiji’s decision will likely lead neighboring countries to examine their options in the geopolitical tussle between the United States and China. It appears that China’s policy of using economic aid to promote influence has begun to show cracks.

Source: RFA, March 29, 2024
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/junshiwaijiao/ec-03292024033831.html

Xinhua recently reported that the United States and Japan are planning to counter China by implementing the biggest upgrade to their security alliance since they signed a security treaty in 1960. According to five people familiar with the matter, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will announce plans to reorganize the U.S. military headquarters in Japan during Kishida’s visit to the United States in April. The goal is to strengthen combat planning and joint military exercises.

Currently, the Japan Command of the U.S. Forces, based at Yokota Base, does not have command authority over the U.S. Navy’s Seventh Fleet or the Marine Corps stationed in Okinawa. The command of these forces lies with the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii. It is expected that after the planned upgrade, command authority of the aforementioned forces will still be retained by the Indo-Pacific Command, but authority of the Japan Command will increase. It will gain more authority in U.S.-Japan joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, supply dispatching, and coordination with the Unified Operations Command of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces.

In recent years, the United States and Japan have been promoting military cooperation between the two countries, publicly stating that the move is aimed at countering China. U.S. Defense Secretary Austin claimed in June of last year that the U.S. and Japan were working hard to further modernize military relations in order to prevent China’s so-called “coercive behavior.”

Source: Xinhua, March 25, 2024
http://www.news.cn/mil/2024-03/25/c_1212345412.htm

The launching ceremony of the Secretariat of the China-Central Asia Mechanism (CCM) was held in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province on March 30. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the foreign ministers of the five Central Asian countries — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan — sent congratulatory letters.

Wang Yi stated that the CCM was established four years ago, helping cooperation between China and the countries of Central Asia to develop at a rapid pace. China’s Xinhua news agency stated that “The launch of the secretariat marks the implementation of the heads of states’ consensus and once again demonstrates to the international community the firm determination of the six countries to work together to pursue development and promote cooperation side by side.”

Source: Xinhua, March 30, 2024
http://www.news.cn/politics/leaders/20240330/4b872c0eb352441989dd9063866fafd3/c.html

China has recently intensified efforts to deepen security ties with countries in the Indian Ocean region. It has signed a new security agreement with the Maldives, and it dispatched a military delegation to visit three other countries in the region earlier this month.

On March 4th, the Maldives’ Defense Ministry announced the signing of a military assistance agreement with China to “nurture stronger bilateral ties.” Details were not provided. China’s Defense Ministry also sent a delegation on a 10-day visit to the Maldives, Sri Lanka and Nepal. They met with Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu and Maldives defense officials to “discuss regional security issues of common concern,” develop bilateral military relations, and promote defense cooperation.

Concurrently, India began withdrawing around 80 security personnel from the Maldives at Muizzu’s request. The Indian personnel had been deployed to operate helicopters and aircraft for surveillance or rescue operations.

Chinese research vessel activity near the Maldives has increased recently. A Chinese research vessel visited the Maldives last month, raising Indian security concerns that Beijing could use gathered data to deploy naval ships to the region.

Analysts suggest that the Indian Ocean region is becoming another arena for geopolitical rivalry over the next decade, with the potential for low-level conflicts between major powers like India and China. According to David Brewster of the Australian National University, China’s recent developments in the area are part of long-term efforts to boost the country’s regional security presence. Brewster said “China has been doing this for about 15 years, seizing opportunities to increase its Indian Ocean presence.”

India has been taking steps to bolster its own presence in the region and partner with like-minded democracies. Indian policymakers may worry about China’s increasing security footprint in the Indian Ocean.

Source: Voice of America, March 19, 2024
https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-presence-in-indian-ocean-20240319/7534315.html

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported on data released by South Korea’s Ministry of Finance showing that South Korea’s 2023 new direct investment in China dropped by 78.1 percent year-over-year, falling to US$1.87 billion. This is the largest decline in South Korean direct investment in more than 30 years, and it is the first time since 1992 that China has failed to rank among South Korea’s top five destinations for investment. The manufacturing sector  led the decline in investment.

The declining numbers reflect China’s changing role in South Korea’s economy as Washington seeks to reduce Beijing’s influence on global supply chains. The United States is about to replace China as South Korea’s largest export destination, importing products ranging from semiconductors to automobiles. South Korean companies have extensive exposure to key sectors in the U.S. and have been seeking to increase investment there to take advantage of the United States’ market scale and  government subsidies.

According to statistics from the Korea International Trade Association, China’s imports from South Korea last year were US$162.5 billion, a sharp drop of 18.8 percent from the previous year. This led to a US$18 billion trade deficit between South Korea and China, the first trade deficit seen during the 31 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, March 15, 2024
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/world/story20240315-3160390