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Australia Announced Large-scale Military Reform

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) recently reported that Australian Prime Minister Albanese released the final assessment of the Defense Report in the House of Parliament . In November last year, the Australian government decided to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the  defense capabilities of the Australian military. The final results will be summarized into a new strategy that will help strengthen the national military-industrial complex and ensure that the military has the necessary defensive resources. The national defense strategy that once focused on territorial defense can no longer satisfy Australia’s ambitions. Looking at China from a distance, “Australia must deter potential enemies before they reach the coastline, whether it is at sea, in the air or on the Internet.” According to Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, this is the first time in 35 years that Australia has redefined the mission of its military. The Defense Report identified the US-UK-Australia Trilateral Security Partnership (AUKUS) as a key priority which aims to help Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines to strengthen its security and military deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region. The Report also laid out a large-scale reform of the Ministry of Defense and related agencies. It will be carried out in order to  plan the development of the military-industrial complex more accurately and systematically. Another priority is to increase long-range precision strike capabilities. The Australian Army will be the first to have missiles with a maximum range of 300 kilometers. Later it will reach the range of more than 500 kilometers through acquiring precision-guided missiles. The current Army missile range is only 40 kilometers. Australia will also strengthen cooperation with Japan, India and other Pacific and Southeast Asian countries. The Report mentioned China nine times, although the final public version did not list China as a direct military threat to Australia. The Report repeatedly cited China’s military spending and military actions as one of the reasons for Australia’s defense reform.

Source: Sina, April 25, 2023
https://news.sina.com.cn/c/2023-04-25/doc-imyrpwqv4527208.shtml

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Lianhe Zaobao: Italy Tends to Withdraw from China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that, according to people familiar with the matter, Italian officials have hinted in private meetings with Taiwanese officials that they may be willing to withdraw from China’s Belt and Road program in order to strengthen semiconductor cooperation with Taiwan. Officials from the Italian Ministry of Industry recently discussed plans on semiconductor production and exports with Taiwanese officials in Taipei. Relevant decisions will have to be made by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, but she has not made her final position public yet. Italy is the only member of the G7 countries participating in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Although the participation agreement has had little practical impact ever since it was signed by then-Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte in early 2019, it is highly symbolic for Beijing amid tensions between China and the United States and its Western allies. The deal will automatically renew in 2024 unless Italy chooses to abandon it. A spokesperson for the Italian Ministry of Industry declined to comment on the above news. According to Taiwan media reports, Taiwan will open its second representative office in Italy in Milan this coming summer.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, April 20, 2023
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/china/story20230420-1385160

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Fact Check: Beijing Gave Money to Attract Countries to Switch Diplomatic Ties from Taiwan to Itself

On March 27, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning claimed that China didn’t use money to influence or, in fact, to buy diplomatic relations with Honduras. Honduras cut its ties with Taiwan (the Republic of China) and established relations with Beijing (the People’s Republic of China) on March 26. Mao further claimed that there were no preconditions for Panama or any other country when they established relations with China in the past few years.

Radio Free Asia, however, did a fact check and found that Beijng’s claim was false. RFA concluded, “The People’s Republic of China has indeed set preconditions for establishing diplomatic relations with China and has provided a large amount of economic and non-economic assistance and incentives to attract countries if they would break off diplomatic relations with Taiwan.”

For example, Costa Rica established relations with Beijing in 2007. China committed to provide US$30 million in cash within two years of the establishment of diplomatic relations and an additional US$100 million to be delivered through China’s regular “turn-key” program.

Panama established relations with Beijing in 2017. Since then, China has provided US$1.86 billion in infrastructure and other investments to Panama. Beijing also donated US$143 million to Panama after establishing their relationship. It didn’t disclose the donation because it didn’t want to give the impression that “they pay a price (for countries) to break off from Taiwan.”

The Dominic Republic established relations with Beijing in 2018. From 2019 to now, China has provided US$490 million in infrastructure and other investments to the Dominic Republic. The research estimated that Beijing provided US$3 billion in financial aid to the country. China also donated US$30 million in 2021.

During the year when El Salvador established diplomatic relations with Beijing in 2018, Beijing provided El Salvador more than 3,000 tons of rice and pledged US$150 million in aid.

Immediately after the establishment of diplomatic relations in 2021, China pledged to donate one million doses of COVID vaccine to Nicaragua. In addition, Beijing reportedly provided an unspecified amount of supplies to the Nicaraguan police riot squad, where the Nicaraguan police force is led by the father-in-law of Daniel Ortega, the dictatorial President of the country.

It is not clear how much Beijing provided to Honduras to get it to switch sides. Reuters reported that before switching to Beijing, Honduras asked Taiwan for US$2.5 billion in aid which its Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina called “not financial aid” but a “negotiated refinancing mechanism.”

Source: Radio Free Asia, April 21, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/cantonese/news/factcheck/internationalrelations-04212023141728.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Why Do Countries Choose Renminbi in Bilateral Trade?

Recently some countries such as Russia, North Korea, and Brazil agreed to the use of Renminbi (RMB) jn settlements in bilateral trade with China. Economist Yin Hetian gave three reasons for their decision:

The first is a political reason: Countries such as Pakistan, Laos, Cambodia, North Korea, and Iran receive financial support from Beijing. For this reason, they feel they are compelled to accept the RMB when exporting to China. However, there is not much for China to gain in this, since these countries “suck China’s blood.”

 

The second is the discounted goods from China. Russia and Brazil provide energy resources to China and have a trade surplus over China. China sells them goods of daily necessities, which they can also buy from other countries using the U.S. dollar. Therefore, China must sell its goods at a discount.

The third is China’s US dollar reserve. Those countries feel comfortable about the RMB because of China’s foreign reserve of 3 trillion US dollars. They put their dollar reserve in a different format: holding the RMB which links to China’s dollar reserve. If China’s dollar reserve is gone, then no one will want to take RMB.

Source: China News Center, April 24, 2023

失去庞大美元外汇储备支持 人民币在国际上就是废纸；说人民币能够取代美元的大外宣实际上是在害中国只有习近平不懂罢了

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

HKET: Germany is Checking All Chinese Components in Its 5G Network

Hong Kong Economic Times (HKET), the leading financial daily in Hong Kong, recently reported that, German Interior Minister Nancy Farser said the ministry is checking all Chinese components already installed in Germany’s 5G network. The practice is to protect the country’s communications network. The three priorities of the inspection are to identify risks, avoid crises and avoid dependencies. She emphasized that relevant inspection is particularly important for key 5G network infrastructure. This could be an important move by German authorities to deal with security concerns. Domestic German media earlier quoted sources as saying that Berlin is considering banning certain components from Chinese companies such as Huawei and ZTE in the telecommunications network. The Ministry of the Interior later denied it, emphasizing that it only comprehensively reviewed all suppliers to avoid over-reliance on individual suppliers. The Chinese embassy in Germany responded that China firmly opposes Germany’s generalization of the national security concept, abusing state power to interfere in the free market, and undermining the principle of fair competition.

Source: HKET, April 16, 2023
https://bit.ly/41AvDUC

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Information/Technology

UDN: Even Chinese Manufacturers are Forced to Diversify Supply Chains

United Daily News (UDN), one of the primary Taiwanese news groups, recently reported that, not only foreign companies, but also Mainland China manufacturers are affected by geopolitical tensions, and are forced to move part of their production overseas due to customer demands. Wanhe Electric, the leading water heater manufacturers in Mainland China, is a good example. Its board of director Lu Yucong said, his American customers “made a condition that they are willing to cooperate with us only if we build factories in countries other than China, such as Vietnam and Thailand.” Multinational companies are reassessing their global operations amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the pandemic and growing tensions between the U.S. and China. It has become more and more obvious in the past two or three years that, not only the United States, but European countries are also deglobalizing. Due to rising tariffs, Chinese manufacturers’ costs are being pushed down to the extreme. They may lose their competitive pricing advantage, and buyers cannot accept this situation. Wanhe Electric finally decided to move several factories in South China to Egypt and Thailand, where the supply chains are not as good as China, but more suitable to avoid risks associated with US-China trade friction. Many industrial players are planning to set up new production bases in Southeast Asia, such as textile manufacturer Luthai Textile and tire manufacturer Jiangsu General Technology Co. More and more American companies with deep presence in China are also considering similar adjustments.

Source: UDN, April 17, 2023
https://money.udn.com/money/story/5599/7103191

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

UDN: Apple’s India Focus Enhanced Taiwanese Supply Chain

United Daily News (UDN), one of the primary Taiwanese news groups, recently reported that, Apple’s rush to “Made in India” has been fruitful, with over US$7 billion worth of iPhones assembled in India in its last fiscal year. This means tripling iPhone production in the world’s fastest growing smartphone market. Foxconn, Wistron and Pegatron played an important role. The three major Taiwanese foundries’ Indian manufacturing business grew simultaneously and became big winners. With the help from its Taiwanese partners, Apple produced about 7 percent of iPhones in India in the last fiscal year, a huge jump from the previous 1 percent. In the current fiscal year, Apple assembled more than US$7 billion in iPhones in India by the end of March, of which US$5 billion was exported, nearly four times the amount in the previous year. Apple may attempt to produce the next generation of mobile phones simultaneously in India and Mainland China, possibly in the fall of this year, which will be the first time that Apple mobile phones get assembled simultaneously in China and India. A quarter of Apple’s phones could be assembled in India by 2025, if suppliers continue to expand aggressively.

Source: UDN, April 14, 2023
https://udn.com/news/story/7240/7096899

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Information/Technology

Ukraine Listed Xiaomi as Russia’s “International Sponsor”

Well-known Chinese news site NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES) recently reported that, the Ukrainian National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption issued an announcement, adding Xiaomi to the list of so-called “war sponsors” and imposing sanctions. The “Sponsors of International War” list includes a number of foreign companies that Ukraine believes have been “funding” Russia since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Most of these companies did not withdraw from the Russian market after February 24 last year. The reason for Xiaomi’s inclusion on the list is that “the company continues to operate in Russia and maintains a leading position in the Russian smartphone market.” The announcement also cited some of Xiaomi’s efforts to increase the size of its Russian office staff. Since 2018, Xiaomi has ranked first in the sales of online stores in Russia, and has a large offline official authorized retail network throughout Russia. Based on the data for the third quarter of 2022, compared with the previous quarter, Xiaomi’s supply to Russia has increased by 39 percent. Currently, Xiaomi ranks third in the global smartphone shipment rankings, with a global market share of 12.8 percent.

Source: NetEase, April 15, 2023
https://www.163.com/dy/article/I2ATRES80512B07B.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Information/Technology