Geo-Strategic Trend

The price of gallium has more than doubled since China restricted exports of the metal last summer. The export controls, first announced in July 2023, were to “safeguard national security and national interests.” Demand for gallium has not fallen, as gallium is of strategic importance to the semiconductor industry.

An article from the Radio France Internationale (RFI) “Raw Materials” column notes that China’s decision to restrict gallium exports had immediate consequences. Chinese gallium exports nearly halted in August and September of 2023 before resuming at much lower volumes. In the first two months of 2024, China’s gallium exports were just over 2,700 kg, compared to over 8,800 kg in the same period during the previous year.

The supply disruptions have caused prices to skyrocket, doubling in just 8 months. In late March of 2024, gallium prices reached $575/kg in Rotterdam. Prices have spiked due to concerns over shortages and the need to replenish depleted inventories. Demand remains strong; there are no substitutes for gallium in many high-tech applications.

Currently, gallium supply remains heavily dependent on China. An IFRI (Institut Français des Relations Internationales) researcher noted that, while current prices make gallium production and refining more profitable, this may not fundamentally reshape the industry as the price surge is unlikely to be permanent.

Recognizing the strategic importance of gallium, a French working group has begun exploring Europe-based solutions. While Europe ceased primary gallium production in 2016, the BRGM analysis suggests that Europe still has the technical capabilities to address the current shortage.

Source: Radio France International, April 12, 2024
https://rfi.my/AVnv

On Saturday, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile and drone attacks against Israel. Major world powers condemned Iran’s attacks, but China only expressed “deep concern” over the escalating situation, without condemning Iran directly.

On Chinese social media, many netizens continued to express anger towards Israel and support for Iran. A Weibo post claiming “99% of Iran’s missiles and drones were intercepted” gained over 70 million views. Under a CCTV News Weibo post about the attacks, most comments opposed Israel, with some expressing doubts about the reported low numbers of casualties.

Many netizens directly expressed fury towards Israel and support for Iran. One commented “This proves that Iran is kind, humanitarian and conscientious.” Another post about Iran’s first-ever direct attack on Israel also gained over 100 million views. Comments under a Xinhua News post about the U.S. reaffirming support for Israel were overwhelmingly “anti-American” and “anti-Israel.” One user said “Keep attacking, the Chinese people support Iran.”

On less censored platforms like NetEase News, some netizens held “non-mainstream” views. One supported Israel, saying “Israel, keep winning every Middle East war! Destroy the false prophets!” Others took a neutral stance, with one saying “As China navigates global turmoil, it must focus on self-development and strengthening itself to withstand any potential crisis.”

Source: Voice of America, April 14, 2024
https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-iran-israel-attack-20240414/7569323.html

Several vehicles followed Taiwanese Vice President-elect Ms. Hsiao Bi-khim during a visit to Prague in March. A Chinese Military Attaché, holding a diplomatic passport and working for the military department of the Chinese Embassy in Prague, was driving one of the vehicles. The Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs is reportedly “handling” the matter, which is “not yet resolved;” the Czech government has summoned the Chinese ambassador and is considering designating the individual involved as persona non grata, potentially leading to his expulsion from the country.

Czech media outlet Seznam Zpravy reported that several vehicles were seen following Hsiao’s police motorcade when she arrived in the Prague city center. At an intersection, one of the trailing vehicles ran a red light, almost crashing into her convoy. The Czech police stopped the vehicle and found that the driver held a diplomatic passport of the People’s Republic of China. He worked for the military department of the Chinese Embassy in Prague. The Chinese military diplomat denied that he had been following Ms. Hsiao, claiming that he was just going to a nearby Chinese restaurant for a meal. Nevertheless, reports pointed out that the car had been following her all the way to her hotel.

Ms. Hsiao Bi-khim’s visit to Prague was part of a tour of the Czech Republic, Poland, and Lithuania in March.

Source: China Times (Taiwan), April 6, 2024
https://www.chinatimes.com/cn/realtimenews/20240406000948-260408

Following the magnitude 7.4 earthquake that struck Taiwan on the morning of April 3rd, Radio France Internationale (RFI) reported that Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council quickly rejected aid offered by mainland China, saying it was not needed.

Analysts explained that Beijing’s aid always comes with conditions attached and is not a true gesture of goodwill. Some suggested that, instead of providing aid, it would be better for the mainland to stop interfering with the Taiwanese government’s disaster relief effort.

The report stated that “China has been unwilling to give up the threat of force to expand its control over Taiwan, and the Taiwanese people are naturally highly suspicious of China’s intentions.” The article mentioned that mainland China blocked the United Nations from providing much-needed assistance to Taiwan 25 years ago when it suffered “The Great 921 Earthquake.” In recent years, mainland aircraft and warships frequently disturb the areas surrounding Taiwan. This trend is only intensifying. Because of these ongoing military threats, people in Taiwan are highly suspicious of China’s intentions.

Some scholars expressed the belief that China may have anticipated Taiwan’s reaction. The argument is as follows: When Beijing made an offer that was very likely to be rejected, they were not actually trying to help; they were setting a trap to embarrass Taiwan for rejecting aid that appears to have been offered in goodwill.

Source: RFI, April 5, 2024
https://tinyurl.com/nhdmnk2s

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported on the territorial dispute between China and India.

“The territorial dispute between China and India has intensified. After India recently reaffirmed its sovereignty over Arunachal Province in southern Tibet, the Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs announced another batch of 30 names to be used for locations in southern Tibet.

Indian Prime Minister Modi visited Arunachal Pradesh, a province known in China as ‘South Tibet.’ He presided over the opening ceremony of the Sela Tunnel (the world’s longest bi-lane tunnel). This triggered dissatisfaction and protests in China.”

The Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs announced name changes in the Chinese and Tibetan languages for these 30 places. “It also listed the name category, administrative region, and longitude and latitude for each location. Most of these 30 locations are located on mountain peaks and rivers, and only 11 of them are residential areas.”

“Prior to this, China issued three batches of official name changes for locations in southern Tibet. … However, this batch made the most changes.”

The Indian government immediately issued a statement refusing to accept the name changes, emphasizing that the relevant areas were part of India’s “indivisible” territory. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson then responded that southern Tibet is part of China’s territory and that the name changes “are completely within the scope of China’s sovereignty.”

Source: CNA, March 30, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202403300217.aspx