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Chinese Commercial Spaceflight Industry Poised for Liftoff Despite Lagging 10 Years Behind SpaceX

China’s official state news agency Xinhua has published a long article on the country’s commercial spaceflight industry.

The Chinese rocket industry saw significant growth in 2023. Twelve out of thirteen rocket launches by private companies reached orbit successfully, a record among the 8 years that private rocket companies have been operating in China. However, there still remains a gap between these Chinese companies and SpaceX, which launched 96 times in 2023. SpaceX also dominates in terms of launch mass, accounting for 80% of the 2022 global total. Experts estimate China’s commercial space industry lags SpaceX by about 10 years.

Looking forward, China’s private rocket companies are poised to accelerate development. The central government’s fourteenth 5-year plan puts a strategic focus on commercial aerospace. Multiple commercial companies like i-Space and Blue Arrow are aiming to launch reusable liquid-fueled rockets capable of dramatic cost reductions by 2025. The future holds huge demand for satellite launches, with China Satellite Network Group Co planning a constellation of 13,000 satellites. Further policy and financial support for the industry is expected as well.

Financing remains a current bottleneck for the industry, as innovation within the industry requires costly continuous testing and design and iteration are required. Local governments are now the main investors in commercial spaceflight companies. The industry also hopes to tap public capital markets for funding.

China’s economic work conference specifically called out commercial space as a strategic emerging industry. Experts foresee strong momentum for China’s commercial space industry in the next few years as companies move toward mature reusable rocket technologies. Key players are concentrated in Beijing, which aims to build a strong base for the industry centered around China’s Economic Development Zone.

Source: Xinhua, January 24, 2023
http://www.xinhuanet.com/20240124/4dd09cfced3d4931aee94c0e0ca2ef44/c.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

Retired Military Leaders Saluted Zhang Youxia But Not Xi Jinping

The Chinese Communist Party’s Central Military Commission (CMC, 中共军委) held a cultural performance on January 29 for the retired military leaders who are in Beijing. Xi Jinping led CMC members including Zhang Youxia, He Weidong, Liu Zhenli, Miao Hua, and Zhang Shengmin to attend the event.

The China Central Television’s (CCTV’s) video revealed that, when Xi waved to the retired military leaders, only one saluted him. But those retired military leaders saluted the CMC’s Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia. Zhang also responded back with salutes frequently. CCTV quickly removed this scene.

In CCTV footage from previous years, Xi would enter the venue, shake hands one by one with the retired military leaders in the front row, and many retired military leaders in casual attire would salute him before shaking hands. This year, however, Xi did not shake hands with the retired military leaders; instead, he waved from a distance. Speculation from the public suggests that this change might have been due to the ongoing COVID pandemic.

Source: NTDTV, February 1, 2024
https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2024/02/01/a103848268.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Government/Politics

People’s Daily: Foster a Comprehensive Ongoing Approach to National Defense Education

People’s Daily published an article on conducting national defense education for the general public in China. The below paragraphs are translated excerpts from the article:

“Our army is the people’s army. Our national defense is the defense of the entire nation.

National defense education is comprehensive, long-term systemic work that emphasizes practical effectiveness and the public participation. Facing the current complex and challenging national security situation, it is essential to consistently regard national defense education as a strategic necessity.

Youth are the future of our country and thus the main focus of national defense education. It is crucial to incorporate national defense education into textbooks, classrooms, and student’s minds, sowing in young hearts the seeds of love for the Party, for the country, and for the military. We should leverage opportunities like military open days and military summer/winter camps to conduct effective national defense knowledge training.

Catering to the characteristics of the audience, national defense education should occur both online and offline, with both hardware and software being developed simultaneously. We should fully utilize local regions’ revolutionary culture (historical sites) and new technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence.

National defense education is not achieved through a single event; instead, it needs to be integrated into daily life and pursued regularly.”

Source: People’s Daily, January 21, 2024
http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2024-01/21/nw.D110000renmrb_20240121_2-06.htm

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Government/Politics

Chinese Student Barred From Canada Over Espionage Concerns

The Federal Court of Canada has barred Chinese student Yuekang Li from entering the country, citing “potential espionage risk.” Li, born in 1998, obtained a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering from Beihang University, a Chinese university with strong ties to Chinese military, in 2020. In 2022 he completed a master’s degree in mechanical engineering at the U.S.A’s North Carolina University (via remote study due to COVID restrictions). After graduation, the U.S. rejected Li’s visa application. Li was subsequently admitted to a Ph.D. program at the University of Waterloo in Canada in April 2022.

Li’s application to the Canadian government for a student visa was rejected by Canadian immigration authorities after a lengthy background check, citing the potential for future espionage activities harmful to Canadian interests. Li applied for a judicial review from the Federal Court of Canada. The court supported the immigration authorities’ decision, emphasizing non-traditional espionage strategies of the Chinese government that make use of Chinese international students. The judge highlighted Li’s graduation from a university associated with the defense industry in China as well as the strategic importance of Li’s chosen field.

While lacking hard evidence that Li has been involved in espionage, the Canadian court’s decision takes into account the change of potential future activities by Li which could harm Canada’s interests. The court ruling underscores concerns in Canada about China’s use of students as an intelligence gathering mechanism.

Source: Voice of America, January 10, 2024
https://www.voachinese.com/a/vancouver-landmark-espionage-ruling-canadian-court-bars-chinese-student20240109/7432713.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

China Obtains 99 Year Lease on Myanmar Port After Brokering Regional Ceasefire

China has obtained rights to a Port in Kyaukpyu, Myanmar for 99 years after Beijing negotiated a ceasefire between the Myanmar government and an armed alliance of opposition groups. The Kyaukpyu Port will give China a logistical presence on the Indian Ocean, enabling bypass of the Malacca strait shipping route. Some have said that Beijing supported the opposition group in Myanmar so as to pressure Myanmar’s government.

The past few months’ conflict in Myanmar started with three armed groups in northern Myanmar (the Kachin, the De’ang, and the Shan) banding together to form a “Myanmar Alliance Army.” The group launched attacks against Myanmar’s government forces in the name of “rescuing Chinese people and combating electronic fraud.” The alliance army secured a series of victories against the Myanmar government army, taking some territory.

On January 10th and 11th, China successfully brokered a ceasefire agreement between the two sides. The deal was struck in Kunming City, Yunnan Province, China. As part of the agreement, Beijing demanded that the Myanmar government enter a contract leasing Myanmar’s Kyaukpyu Port to China for 99 years. Having suffered defeats in the field, the Myanmar government had no choice but to cede use of the port.

According to the Aboluo website, Beijing provided support to the Myanmar Alliance Army in the form of advanced weapons, communication equipment, and drones. There were also rumors that Chinese soldiers dressed as members of the alliance army and fought some of the battles against the Myanmar government’s military. Aboluo commentary suggests that China supported the armed opposition in Myanmar not to “stop electronic fraud crime rings in Myanmar” but rather to secure use of the port in Kyaukpyu.

The Kyaukpyu Port is situated on the Indian Ocean; it may well become the best seaport serving the southwest and central regions of China. Its use will significantly reduce China’s dependence on shipping routes through the Strait of Malacca, making it easier for China to import and export to the global market directly via the Indian Ocean.

Beijing proposed a development plan for Kyaukpyu Port as early as 2007 under its “Belt and Road Initiative,” aiming to establish a land-sea transportation network connecting Kyaukpyu to China’s Kunming city via railways and highways. Negotiations between Beijing and Myanmar went on for 12 years. China and Myanmar signed a 50-year lease agreement for the port in 2018, but this agreement fell apart when Myanmar’s current leader Min Aung Hlaing came to power in a 2021 military coup.

Source: Aboluo, January 15, 2024
https://www.aboluowang.com/2024/0115/2004525.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

People’s Daily: A New Form of Warfare Has Emerged, China Must Keep Up

People’s Daily published an article asserting that a new form of warfare is emerging in the modern era, calling for China to become familiar with the new modes of battle. “There are new rules on battlefield, rules of information and intelligence. Those who can lead in this new setting will seize victory. … There are some who claim to fight against us in a high-level war. That ‘high-level war’ refers to a new form of warfare, with new rules and new styles. It no longer relies on our traditional advantages, but rather on technological warfare, informational warfare, and hybrid warfare.”

The article went on to analyze recent military trends: “Recent regional wars have demonstrated new developments in hybrid warfare and proxy warfare. Various forms of combat, such as unmanned warfare, cognitive offense and defense, intelligence gathering, and force deployment, are emerging as crucial variables influencing the course of conflict. Especially in modern warfare, combat formations are shifting from being ‘people-based’ to being ‘machine-based,’ and the mode of engagement is transitioning from ‘human-in-the-loop’ to ‘human-out-of-the-loop.'” (Editor’s note: the term “human-out-of-the-loop” may refer to increased use of unmanned vehicles/drones in combat, or perhaps to the rise of automated systems that can engage targets without input from a human pilot.)

“In the intelligence era, future battlefields will expand from traditional domains such as land, sea, air, space, and electronics to new realms including information, algorithms, cognition, and more. This change will manifest in characteristics such as spatial expansion [of war], the intertwining of multiple domains, and multi-dimensional interaction, making for an extremely complex battlefield environment. All of this is inseparable from scientific and technological development. Those who possess a scientific and technological advantage will have the upper hand on the battlefield.”

Source: People’s Daily, January 8, 2024
http://military.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0108/c1011-40154565.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

Sing Tao Daily: At Least 30 Generals Involved in Rocket Force Corruption Case

China recently announced the removal of nine senior generals of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from the National People’s Congress for their involvement in the Rocket Force’s corruption case. Three Lieutenant Generals were among the indicted: former Air Force Commander Ding Laihang, and former Commanders and Commisar of the Rocket Force Li Yuchao and Zhou Yaning.

Hong Kong-based Sing Tao Daily reported that the involved people also include former Defense Minister General Li Shangfu and General Wei Fenghe, as well as over 30 generals, and many more officers at the divisional level and above.

Source: Sing Tao Daily, December 31, 2023
http://tinyurl.com/4bnss7r7

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Government/Politics

Xinhua: North Korea Claims South Korea Misjudged its Military Activity

Xinhua reported that Kim Yo Jong of North Korea has claimed that South Korea misjudged North Korea’s military movements. The following is a translation of the report.

According to the report from the Korean Central News Agency (North Korean media), Kim Yo Jong, Vice Chairman of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, made a statement on January 7, pointing out that South Korea has made a misjudgment and speculative assumptions about the movements of the North Korean military.

The report stated that South Korea claimed that North Korea fired shells northwest of Yonpyeong Island on the afternoon of January 6, and that the shells fell in the western sea area north of the “Northern Limit Line.” Kim Yo Jong of North Korean responded to this claim in the statement, saying that the North Korean military had in fact detonated explosives simulating the sound of coastal artillery. North Korea’s purpose was to observe South Korea’s reaction.

Kim Yo Jong said that South Korea mistook the explosive sound for artillery fire, took the sounds as provocative shelling, and falsely claimed that the impact point was in the sea buffer zone north of the “Northern Limit Line” in the western sea area.

Kim Yo Jong also warned that even if South Korea makes a small provocation, the North Korean military will immediately respond with “shelling.”

According to another report by Yonhap News Agency (South Korean media) on January 7, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff dismissed Kim Yo Jong’s remarks as just “low-level psychological warfare” denigrating the detection capabilities of the South Korean military. He stated that if North Korea provokes South Korean territory and national security, the South Korean military will respond resolutely and decisively based on the principles of “immediate, strong, and thorough countermeasures.”

There have been persistent disagreements between the two Koreas over the demarcation of the western sea area of the Korean Peninsula. South Korea has delineated a maritime boundary called the “Northern Limit Line” between the “West Sea Five Islands,” including Yonpyeong Island, and the western coast of North Korea, which North Korea does not recognize.

Source: Xinhua, January 7, 2024
http://www.news.cn/world/20240107/8c243d2644a54e719a9956b811cdcfb4/c.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend