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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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CCP, Master of Hostage Diplomacy

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China’s Real Estate Woes: 30% Surge in Non-Performing Loans, Government Responses Conflicted

Financial strains related to real estate in China are increasingly evident in local banks. By December 2023, non-performing loans (NPLs) had risen by about 30% compared to the previous year. This impedes banks’ ability to grow their lending, possibly hindering China’s economic recovery. Hong Kong investors are shying away from trading Chinese local bank stocks due to concerns over the banks’ exposure to real estate woes.

The rise in NPLs is confirmed by 2023 fiscal reports of 27 Hong Kong-listed large and mid-sized banks, with NPLs totaling 106.8 billion yuan, a 27% increase from the previous year. The average NPL ratio for real estate loans reached 6.5%, indicating a surge in bad loans.

Analysis shows a worsening situation for local banks in economically challenged regions, such as the northeastern provinces, with Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank experiencing a 37% increase in real estate-related NPLs.

Government responses have been conflicted, as it is difficult to stimulate the economy while also maintaining stability in the banking sector. The government introduced a mechanism for coordination of real estate financing, potentially aggravating financial risks by pushing banks to lend out funds to whitelisted projects. Meanwhile, concerns have arisen over banks’ ability to handle bad loans in the face of shrinking net interest margins (NIMs). By December 2023, NIMs had reached a historic low of 1.69%, prompting speculation that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) may cut interest rates in the future to stimulate demand. At the same time, a further reduction in interest rates could lead to further strain on banks’ resources and ability to manage bad loans.

 

Source: Nikkei Chinese, April 9, 2024
https://zh.cn.nikkei.com/china/ceconomy/55288-2024-04-09-05-00-00.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

RFI: Taiwan Rejects China’s Relief Aid After Earthquake

Following the magnitude 7.4 earthquake that struck Taiwan on the morning of April 3rd, Radio France Internationale (RFI) reported that Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council quickly rejected aid offered by mainland China, saying it was not needed.

Analysts explained that Beijing’s aid always comes with conditions attached and is not a true gesture of goodwill. Some suggested that, instead of providing aid, it would be better for the mainland to stop interfering with the Taiwanese government’s disaster relief effort.

The report stated that “China has been unwilling to give up the threat of force to expand its control over Taiwan, and the Taiwanese people are naturally highly suspicious of China’s intentions.” The article mentioned that mainland China blocked the United Nations from providing much-needed assistance to Taiwan 25 years ago when it suffered “The Great 921 Earthquake.” In recent years, mainland aircraft and warships frequently disturb the areas surrounding Taiwan. This trend is only intensifying. Because of these ongoing military threats, people in Taiwan are highly suspicious of China’s intentions.

Some scholars expressed the belief that China may have anticipated Taiwan’s reaction. The argument is as follows: When Beijing made an offer that was very likely to be rejected, they were not actually trying to help; they were setting a trap to embarrass Taiwan for rejecting aid that appears to have been offered in goodwill.

Source: RFI, April 5, 2024
https://tinyurl.com/nhdmnk2s

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Half-Stopped Factories Become Norm in Chinese Lithium Battery Industry

Shanghai-based Chinese financial news site East Money recently reported that, “as the period of frenzied investment has passed, the Chinese lithium battery industry has been shrouded in the shadow of overcapacity and price wars. .. After the Chinese New Year, which is often the peak period for job hunting and employment, many battery companies reported suspensions of production, layoffs, and salary cuts.” Below are some translated excerpts from the article.

The oversupply situation in the lithium battery industry has been reflected in all aspects of the entire supply chain. Some sources told the reporters that, in the new energy industry chain from top to bottom, no orders and half-stopped factories have become the norm. “The bosses themselves are looking to find a more stable job.” Starting this year, even large companies are in danger. Other than the two “super players,” CATL and BYD, the question is: how many battery companies can survive past spring?

The turning point for the lithium battery industry’s sharp decline occurred in the fourth quarter of 2022. The trigger was that the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles began to slow down significantly, which was not expected by the industry. Because of this, since 2023, the battery industry has fought a fierce price war, and capacity utilization has further declined as well. Even for CATL, its 2021 manufacturing capacity utilization rate was as high as 95 percent, dropped to 83.4 percent in 2022, and further dropped to 70.47 percent in 2023, which is still much higher than the industry average capacity utilization rate – around 41.8 percent.

Right now, the lithium battery industry is still facing the challenge brought by the worsen high EV inventories as the result of the rapid expansion of new energy vehicles. In the meantime, the battery inventory of the energy storage industry is piling up too. No one knows when the lithium battery industry will emerge from the bottom. A new round of elimination in the market seems to be just starting.

Source: East Money, April 1, 2024
https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202404013031165676.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Information/Technology

CNA: China Changes Names of 30 Places Along Indian Border

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported on the territorial dispute between China and India.

“The territorial dispute between China and India has intensified. After India recently reaffirmed its sovereignty over Arunachal Province in southern Tibet, the Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs announced another batch of 30 names to be used for locations in southern Tibet.

Indian Prime Minister Modi visited Arunachal Pradesh, a province known in China as ‘South Tibet.’ He presided over the opening ceremony of the Sela Tunnel (the world’s longest bi-lane tunnel). This triggered dissatisfaction and protests in China.”

The Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs announced name changes in the Chinese and Tibetan languages for these 30 places. “It also listed the name category, administrative region, and longitude and latitude for each location. Most of these 30 locations are located on mountain peaks and rivers, and only 11 of them are residential areas.”

“Prior to this, China issued three batches of official name changes for locations in southern Tibet. … However, this batch made the most changes.”

The Indian government immediately issued a statement refusing to accept the name changes, emphasizing that the relevant areas were part of India’s “indivisible” territory. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson then responded that southern Tibet is part of China’s territory and that the name changes “are completely within the scope of China’s sovereignty.”

Source: CNA, March 30, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202403300217.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

CCP Uses Ma Ying-Jeou’s China Trip to Promote Its Agenda

Taiwan’s former President Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomingtang party is leading a group of Taiwanese youths to visit China. On April 4th they participated in a ceremony to commemorate the Yellow Emperor, an ancient Chinese cultural hero known as “the origin of Chinese people,” in the Yellow Emperor’s hometown in Shaanxi Province.

People’s Daily reported that Ma’s Taiwanese youth group had their hearts filled with “a sense of pride and admiration” through participating in various activities in mainland China. “From watching drone performances to test-driving the latest new-energy vehicles, from experiencing advanced artificial intelligence technology to witnessing century-spanning projects like the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, they have personally experienced the economic development and technological progress of the mainland.” The report said that “some Taiwanese youths proudly call themselves fans of China’s products.”

According to Taiwanese newspaper Liberty Times, sources have revealed that the anticipated meeting between Xi Jinping and Ma Ying-jeou will be deliberately postponed from April 8th to April 10th. This is being done in order to “counter” several meetings that will be held in the U.S. on April 10th-11th. On April 10th, U.S. President Biden will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Washington DC, with planned discussion on security, regional situations, and the importance of Taiwan Strait security. Philippine President Macapagal-Arroyo will arrive in the U.S. on April 11th, and the three parties will then engage in a US-Japan-Philippines trilateral summit, undoubtedly touching on issues regarding the South China Sea.

Senior national security officials in Taiwan pointed out that the CCP usually summons Ma whenever the global democratic community prepares to confront the CCP’s authoritarian regime. Ma’s recent talk of “One China” and “Taiwan is not a country” seem to have paved the way for the upcoming “Xi-Ma meeting.” Ma’s trip relates to Xi Jinping’s agenda of “unification” of Taiwan, as well as to the theme of supporting Chinese manufacturers that are under U.S. sanction.

According to Radio France International (RFI), Ma stated on January 9th (a few days before Taiwan’s last Presidential election) that “you must trust Xi Jinping” regarding cross-strait relations. He claimed that Xi has no intention of unification [of Taiwan and Mainland China]. He also said that the Taiwanese people would be able to accept unification [if it came to that]. RFI reported that Ma’s remark caused a wide range of public criticism, forcing the Kuomintang’s presidential and vice-presidential candidates, Hou Youyi and Zhao Shaokang, to quickly distance themselves from Ma.

Sources:
1. People’s Daily, April 6, 2024
http://tw.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0406/c14657-40210412.html
2. Liberty Times, April 6, 2024
https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/4632782
3. Radio France International, January 12, 2024
https://www.rfi.fr/cn/台湾/20240112-台媒聚焦马英九回答-为何不要求中国放弃武统还要相信习近平

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

China’s CRRC Drops Out of Bidding After EU Subsidy Probe

On February 16th, the European Union announced a subsidy investigation against China Railway Rolling Stock Corporation (CRRC). CRRC Qingdao Sifang Locomotive & Rolling Stock Co., Ltd. was suspected of relying on state subsidies to submit a bid with an undue advantage in the tender for electric trains in Bulgaria. The Bulgarian tender was for the purchase of 20 electric trains and maintenance for the next 15 years, with a total value of approximately 610 million euros (660 million US dollars).

On March 26th, the European Commission stated that CRRC withdrew its bid, and that because of the CRRC’s withdrawal, the EU will terminate the investigation.

Thierry Breton, the EU’s Internal Market Commissioner, said “In just a few weeks, our first investigation under the Foreign Subsidy Regulations has already produced results.”

The European Union has recently intensified its scrutiny of Chinese companies that may receive state subsidies to gain bidding advantages. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, announced an investigation in September of last year into Chinese government subsidies potentially causing “artificially depressed” prices for Chinese electric vehicles hitting the European market.

Source: VOA, March 27, 2024
https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-withdraws-from-balgaria-tender-20240326/7543652.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Xinhua Commentary: Pacific Island Countries Should Not be Anyone’s “Backyard”

Xinhua News Agency published a commentary regarding a statement by Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Thomas-Greenfield made the following statement in an interview on April 1st:

“[The U.S. is] not trying to force countries to choose between us and China. What we’re doing is giving them a choice to make. Many countries will say we’re forced into these relationships because we don’t have other choices. We’re giving them those other choices. And those other choices mean having the U.S. have their backs, having the U.S. standing with them side by side as they address some of the challenges that China is forcing upon them.” [2]

Xinhua called the statement “not only illogical but also a misrepresentation of the facts.” It stated that the Pacific Island countries have the political wisdom to make their own decisions. Below are some translated excerpts from the commentary:

“In recent years, the U.S. has been aggressively promoting the “Indo-Pacific strategy,” from the AUKUS (security partnership among the US, UK, and Australia), to the QUAD (quadrilateral security dialogue among the US, Japan, India, and Australia), and further to the “Blue Pacific Partnerships” initiative (involving the US, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the UK). The United States has gone to great lengths in creating various “circles” to contain China, enticing and utilizing Pacific Island nations as a crucial part of its containment strategy. However, the United States underestimates the political wisdom of the Pacific Island countries in discerning the current situation, as well as their determination to pursue an independent and autonomous development path.”

“In April 2022, China signed a government-to-government security cooperation framework agreement with the Solomon Islands. In July 2023, China and the Solomon Islands formally established a comprehensive strategic partnership based on mutual respect and common development in the new era. During the 2024 Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference, President Lionel Aingimea of Nauru stated that, as a Pacific Island nation and a developing country, Nauru supports “building bridges” rather than “erecting walls” and hopes to construct a more integrated and closely-connected world.”

“Fiji Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama recently stated that China’s assistance to Pacific Island nations has played an important role in regional development.”

“The various slanders and smears by the U.S. against China’s pragmatic cooperation with Pacific Island nations will only expose the U.S.’ domineering attitude of judging others by its own standards. Pacific Island nations are independent sovereign states and not anyone’s “backyard.”

Sources:

Xinhua, April 4, 2024
http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/20240404/7934d20bdc9c476c81c1035425ffdc4a/c.html

CSIS, April 1, 2024
https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-ambassador-united-nations-linda-thomas-greenfield-us-diplomacy-pacific-islands

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations

China Makes Progress on eVTOL Aircraft Development

China has made progress in development of electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft. China views the eVTOL platform as a revolution in aviation. “Similar to the transition from gasoline cars to electric cars on the ground, [a transition] from gasoline-powered helicopters to eVTOL aircraft [is occurring],” said Xie Jia, Senior Vice President of Fengfei Aviation Technology, Shanghai.

On October 10, 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the Civil Aviation Administration of China jointly issued an “Outline for the Development of a Green Aviation Manufacturing Industry (2023-2035)” proposing that, by 2025, eVTOLs will achieve pilot operation. The outline further proposes that, by 2035, new types of general aviation equipment characterized by unmanned, electric, and intelligent features will achieve commercialization and large-scale application.

In October 2023, China had its first flight of a 2-ton eVTOL in Shanghai. The aircraft, the M1, was developed by the Future Wing Company in Shanghai. The vehicle became China’s first independently-developed and domestically-produced 2-ton eVTOL. Production was domestic in all three core areas: electric systems, flight control systems, and composite materials. The M1 has a composite wing configuration with 20 rotors, a maximum payload of 500 kilograms, seating for 5 people, a cruising speed of 200 kilometers per hour, and an intended range of 250 kilometers. It can meet short-distance air travel needs within and between cities, shortening travel time from 2-3 hours to around 30 minutes.

In March of 2024, the eVTOL “Shengshi Long” took off from Shenzhen and landed at the Zhuhai, both in Guangdong Province, covering a distance in 20 minutes that would have taken 3 hours by car. This was the world’s first public demonstration of an eVTOL flight that traveled over water and between cities. The aircraft was developed by Shanghai Fengfei Aviation Technology Co., Ltd., with a takeoff weight of 2 tons, seating for 5 people, a cruising speed of up to 200 kilometers per hour, and 100 percent domestic production of its core modules.

Sources:
1. People’s Daily, October 31, 2023
http://sh.people.com.cn/n2/2023/1031/c176738-40623560.html
2. People’s Daily, March 2, 2024
http://ent.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0302/c1012-40187361.html

Briefings | | |   Information/Technology