On March 11, Xiao Jie, the Party Secretary of Sansha City in Hainan Province revealed that, in 2017, Sansha City will start an early operation to set up an Environmental Monitoring Station at Scarborough Shoal. However, at her regular press conference on March 22, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying denied the news, saying that the report regarding the monitoring station at the Scarborough Shoal was false and there is no such a plan.
What caused China’s sudden change of plans for Scarborough Shoal?
First of all, a breakthrough is expected soon on the negotiations on the South China Sea code of conduct. China’s aggressive actions at Scarborough Shoal at this time would surely raise concerns among ASEAN countries.
Second is the Philippines factor. After Duterte took office, Sino-Philippine diplomatic relations began to warm up. If China were to take action at Scarborough Shoal at this time, it would inevitably affect the development of bilateral relations.
Third is the U.S. factor. Scholars of Sino-U.S. strategic relations have a saying, “The day when China works on Scarborough Shoal is the day that China and the United States have a showdown in the South China Sea.” The current tension in the South China Sea dispute has led both China and the United States to strengthen military deployment in the South China Sea. So far, China’s island expansion and the United States’ military patrols to maintain freedom of navigation are controlled below the limit of any direct conflict. Scarborough Shoal seems to have become a red line in the South China Sea.
In addition, Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit the United States next month. Any move at Scarborough Shoal at this time would destroy the friendly atmosphere of the Sino-U.S. meeting.
Source: Duowei News, March 24, 2017
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