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A recent survey by an education consultancy in China has sparked heated discussions among Chinese netizens. It claims that, in recent years, an increasing number of university graduates are choosing to work in small counties instead of in big cities, and that the job satisfaction of such graduates has risen. Two young Chinese people interviewed by Voice of America disagreed with the survey results, saying that jobs in smaller counties actually offer lower salaries and fewer career development opportunities, contrary to the survey’s findings.

Wei, a 21-year-old tourism management student, is anxious about his future job prospects (like many of his graduating peers). He feels torn between working in a big city, which would mean intense competition and high living costs, or working in a small county, which would offer fewer opportunities for career growth and have lower-skilled job opportunities, unmatched to his degree.

The survey suggested that, in small counties, employment for bachelor’s degree graduates rose from 20% in 2018 to 25% in 2022, with job satisfaction improving by 9%. The survey reported that 70% of graduates employed in county jobs were working in roles relevant to their degrees. Wei stated that there is a huge gap between the survey results and the reality in China – small counties offer few private sector jobs, have lower pay, have policy implementation issues, and offer only unstable temporary work unless one is in the government sector.

While the survey data show that, in small counties, the monthly income of people with bachelor’s degrees has risen from 4,640 yuan (US$ 640) in 2018 to 5,377 yuan (US$ 742) in 2022, Wei believes that the official numbers are “false rhetoric disconnected from the reality of a decade’s wage stagnation,” and that many graduates end up returning home unemployed.

Some experts suggest that youth are leaving big cities due to lack of opportunities amid China’s current economic downturn and industrial restructuring, and that small counties are seen as providing better work-life balance despite lower salaries.

Source: Voice of America, April 21, 2024
https://www.voachinese.com/a/surveys-found-china-s-college-graduates-seek-job-opportunities-in-smaller-cities-20240421/7578947.html

The downturn in China’s real estate market continues. In the first quarter of 2024, sales by the top 100 real estate companies plunged 47.5% year-on-year. Official data show the prices of new homes and second-hand homes (i.e. homes that are not newly constructed) continuing to decline for several consecutive months.

Though the market for non-new homes showed some positive changes, reports indicate that the real estate market’s overall downward trend is unlikely to reverse, with the winter far from over. Major developer Vanke, once considered a “model player” in the industry, saw its 2023 net profit plummet 46.4% and has implemented management pay cuts. Analysts warn that even “quality” developers face default risks while troubled firms like Evergrande remain in limbo, signaling that the market has not yet bottomed out.

Some expect 2024 to be the year that China’s property market rebounds. However, a greater proportion of experts view the downturn as symptomatic of structural issues, with a solution requiring new economic drivers to replace traditional industries like real estate. The “new productive forces” concept promoted by China’s central government places hope in new industrial areas as economic drivers to spur growth. Doubts remain, however, about whether such “new productive forces” can match the enormous impact of the real estate sector on employment and on the broader economy in the short-term.

The current transitional state of China’s real estate market poses major challenges to the economy, including labor mismatch and overcapacity risks. Real estate had been an economic pillar, contributing around 17% of China’s GDP and employing over 15 million. While strategic shifts towards green energy and digital economies are inevitable directions in the long-term, filling the void left by a struggling real estate sector will not be easy.

Source: BBC Chinese, April 15, 2024
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-68786662

China is launching a large-scale initiative to promote equipment upgrades as well as the recycling of consumer goods. The government’s goal is that, by 2027, investment in 7 key industrial sectors should increase by over 25% compared with 2023 levels. The government milestones include doubling the recycling of scrapped vehicles as well as a 30% increase in recycling of used home appliances.

Officials say this push is about transitioning from foreign to domestic products.

The initiative, titled “Action Plan to Promote Large-Scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Replacement” (“推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案”), was announced by the Information Office of China’s State Council on April 11th. The government will provide funding support for the initiative, but the exact amount is unclear.

China currently faces overcapacity issues, with exports accounting for much of the country’s economic growth. Shifting to domestic consumption through equipment upgrades and recycling is a potential path to addressing these issues.

The quality of Chinese-made products remains a challenge to adoption. Many Chinese companies prefer to use more expensive imported equipment; domestic products often require more maintenance and repairs, raising production costs. Some industries such as smart tech and precision machinery are still heavily reliant on foreign technology.

Currently, China has over 39 trillion RMB in fixed assets, with 28 trillion RMB comprising industrial equipment. The new action plan aims to spur economic growth through massive replacement of such fixed assets, promoting self-sufficiency and reducing reliance on foreign goods. Feasibility and efficacy of this approach remain to be seen.

Source: Radio Free Asia, April 12, 2024
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/ql2-04122024072046.html