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China’s Newly Published Population Data Draws Questions

On Tuesday May 11, China announced its latest census data showing that the country’s total population in 2020 is over 1.4 billion, with the population aged between 15 and 59 accounting for 63 percent of the total. That is 6.79 percentage points lower than the 2010 census. The population over 60 years old reached 18 percent of the total, 5.44 percentage points higher compared to 10 years ago. The figures indicate that China has a growing aging population. However, experts found inconsistencies in the official data and questioned its authenticity.

Yi Fuxian, a demographic expert at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, pointed to the abnormally high birth rate in 2020. Starting from 2016, the number of new births were decreasing year after year, with the only exception being 2020, when the new births increased by 26 million, nearly doubling the 14 million births in 2019. The birth rate in 2020 even broke the historic record established in 1991.

What is also puzzling is the sudden increase of 16.41 million for people over the age of 65. This means that in 2020 the number of people above 65 years old is 60 percent more than in 2019. All those who turned 65 last year were born in 1955. However, it was found out that the birth rate in that year did not increase but actually plunged from previous years, with only 20 million births.

A third anomaly was the high death toll in 2020. 14.6 million died in 2020, up from 9.45 million in 2019, an increase of nearly 5 million, or more than 50 percent. This was also a record high death number since the year 1980.

Source: Radio Free Asia, May 11, 2021
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/zhengzhi/ql1-05112021055641.html

Local Government Debts in China Continue to Rise

In response to the epidemic, China’s issuance of debts has expanded. This has also led local governments to have a higher fiscal risk. Data shows that, by the end of 2020, local governments in China had a debt balance of 25.66 trillion yuan (US$3.99 trillion), with the debt ratio rising by nearly 4 percentage points over 2019.

Among the 31 provinces, Jiangsu, Shandong and Guangdong, the top 3 provinces in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), are also the regions with the largest amount of local debts. In 2020, between January and June, Jiangsu’s debt issuance reached 245.871 billion yuan (US $38.2 billion), almost the level of the entire year of 2019. Guangdong’s debt issuance in the first half of 2020 has already surpassed the total for the whole year of 2019. The speed of debt accumulation also significantly accelerated in the provinces that have a low economic ranking. For example, the size of Yunnan’s debt issuance reached 137.667 billion yuan (US$ 21.4 billion), more than double that of the same period in 2019.

The debt growth of local governments helps further promote investment but it also increases the risk of default. China stipulates that a local government’s debt ratio should not exceed 100 percent. That is, the maximum balance of local debt should not exceed the level of local fiscal capability. However, nine provinces have already exceeded the threshold of 100 percent.

Li Yang, the director of the government affiliated National Institute for Finance and Development, said that, if local governments cannot rely on their own revenues to balance their own expenditures, it is a dangerous fiscal phenomenon.

Source: Central News Agency, May 9, 2021
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202105090083.aspx

Online Protesters Welcome Drawing Competition “China in the Eyes of Turks”

Online protesters welcomed the drawing competition “China in the Eyes of Turks.” The Turkish Ministry of Education and the Chinese Embassy in Turkey are organizing a drawing contest for Turkish high school students with the theme “China in my eyes,” to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. The drawing contest has triggered a backlash among Turks, with Twitter users creating hashtags based on the contest’s name and posting pictures that are parodies of Uyghurs being persecuted.

In one drawing, a girl is leaping upwards towards the star and moon flag with a blue background, the symbol of the East Turkestan independence movement, with her right hand raised as if she is striving for a firm goal.

Ahmet Davutoglu, a longtime ally of current Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and a former foreign minister and prime minister, uploaded this drawing and posted “Our dream is East Turkistan. Dear children, draw your dream of saving your brothers and sisters in our ancestral home and send them to this contest. Say it out loud so that those who don’t want to see it can hear it!”

“#hayalimdekicin (China in my dream)” became a popular hashtag after netizens posted the Turkish Ministry of Education’s official letter on the Internet, while many Twitter users posted a number of comical images that were parodies of Uyghurs being persecuted.

The paintings included a group of men in blue shirts sitting on the ground under an iron curtain in a Xinjiang concentration camp with an adult in a red robe with a Chinese national five-star flag holding the mouth and nose of a Uighur girl in pigtails, a stained star and moon flag stained with five stars painted in blood, and a boy whose family was imprisoned in a concentration camp, sitting alone in his home and crying on Eid al-Fitr, a religious holiday that Muslims celebrate.

Twitter user @MardinTes said in Turkish and translates, “Our students should participate in this contest, with thousands of pictures depicting the torture, assimilation and genocide that the murderer China has inflicted on our kinsmen.”

Another user @seyittumturk7 posted in Turkish and translates, “State of Pain China, State of the Blood China, State of persecution China, State of Terror China, State of Tears China, Genocide State China.”

The Uyghurs living in Xinjiang province of China are a Turkic ethnic group sharing the same cultural and ancestral roots with the Turkish people. Beijing’s genocidal persecution of Uyghurs is viewed by most people in Turkey as the persecution of their brothers and sisters.

Source: Central News Agency, May 7, 2021
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202105070074.aspx

Australia Reconsiders China’s Lease of Darwin Port

The Australian government is reconsidering its decision to lease the Darwin port to a Chinese-owned company and may suspend the lease in response to national security concerns.

In 2015, the government of the Northern Territory of Australia reached a lease agreement with the Chinese company, Landbridge Group. Landbridge paid a one-time rent of over AU$500 million for the right to operate the Port of Darwin for up to 99 years, claiming at the time that the deal would promote Australia-China trade and tourism.

Huangfu Jing, an Australian commentator, observed that, with the deterioration of Australia-China relations, local opposition has been growing louder and louder. “In the early years, the international environment had not come to the point it is at today. The mainstream (Australian) society, especially the business community, believed that we could make money and trade with China. It (the Northern Territory government) made use of such opinions and facilitated the sale for its own benefit.”

The Port of Darwin is a dual-use civilian and military port, where U.S. Marines are stationed on a rotational basis. Huangfu added, “Beijing actually monitors every move the US Marines make in the Northern Territory and (the deal) does far more damage to Australia’s national interests than what the rental income covers. Landbridge is ostensibly a private company, but few Chinese private enterprises that can invest overseas are not under Beijing’s control.”

Australian media reports that the National Security Committee in Canberra has asked the Department of Defence to review and advise on the lease. Prime Minister Morrison also said last week that if national security becomes an issue at the port, action should be taken.

Joseph Cheng, retired professor at the City University of Hong Kong, said the Darwin Port is sensitive not only because of the presence of U.S. troops, but also because China sees it as a breakthrough in promoting its “Belt and Road” strategy. “There is an immense ocean stretching from China to the South Pacific. If China could obtain some bases on some of the islands, it would be very helpful to China for it to maintain a global communication system and a global satellite monitoring system. It would be very convenient to have Darwin Port as a connection point in the middle. The port stretches north to Papua New Guinea and then to Indonesia. The waters between the north coast of Australia and Indonesia are also believed to have rich oil and other energy resources.”

Source: Radio Free Asia, May 3, 2021
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/gf-05032021064232.html

China’s New Administrative Measures on Religious Clergy

On May 1, the “Administrative Measures of Religious Clergy” promulgated by China’s State Administration of Religious Affairs (SARA) came into effect. The Administrative Measures, published on February 9 of this year, are composed of seven chapters and 52 articles, that define the “rights and obligations” of China’s religious clergy and regulate their behavior. Among them, Article 3 states that religious clergy should “love the motherland, support the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and support the socialist system.” They should also “practice the core socialist values,” and adhere to the principle of “independence and self-management of religion” and the “direction of the localization of religions.”

On May 2, almost immediately after the implementation of these “Administrative Measures,” a video and several photos taken in Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, went viral on the Internet. The video and photos show a local Christian clergyman preaching in a church, using a local dialect, and quoting the Bible to explain Xi Jinping’s political propaganda slogan, which includes “the main mission during the era of Xi Jinping.”

Pastor Liu Yi, now living in California who is also the founder of the Chinese Christian Fellowship of Righteousness, commented, “Under the control of the Chinese Communist Party, many so-called pastors and preachers in Christianity have taken it upon themselves to take the party’s position. They have used the pulpit of the church to become the mouthpiece for propagating the policies of the Chinese Communist Party. For example, the ‘sermons’ from a church in Zhejiang circulating online are very telling. They are not preaching the Bible, but rather, the propaganda of the Communist Party.”

Pastor Liu Yi explains that there are seven “national religious groups” in China, “namely, the Chinese Buddhist Association, the Chinese Taoist Association, the Chinese Islamic Association, the Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association, the Chinese Catholic Bishops’ Conference, the Chinese Christian Three-Self Patriotic Movement Committee and the Chinese Christian Association. These national religious organizations are all under the direct leadership of the United Front Work Department of the Chinese Communist Party.”

Source: Radio Free Asia, May 4, 2021
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/shehui/sc-05042021141937.html

Chinese Phone Makers and House Builders Leap into Electric Vehicle Market

Baidu, Xiaomi, Huawei, OPPO, Evergrande and other Chinese companies have recently announced their commitment to doing electric vehicle research and development. These companies are not car makers: Xiaomi, Huawei and OPPO are phone makers; Baidu, which has already invested in driverless vehicles, is in Internet-related services; and Evergrande started out as a real estate developer.

At the Shanghai Auto Show in April, while Tesla was under the spotlight because of a consumer dispute, the electric cars that local automakers presented and also the aforementioned companies attracted a lot of attention.

As Chinese financial media and Radio Free Asia reported, Evergrande launched nine new electric car models at the Shanghai Auto Show using the brand name “Hengchi.” Evergrande boasted that they were developed in cooperation with car manufacturers such as Swedish supercar producer Koenigsegg. The nine models that Evergrand launched were later found to be “model cars” which had only a shell and no brakes or suspension system. For this reason, Evergrande sent an army of security personnel to guard the stage and wouldn’t allow the audience to  take pictures of the chassis of the display cars.

It was widely believed that China’s manufacturing sector still has great difficult in achieving self-sufficiency in the area of critical parts and components, as well as in the core technologies such as auto chips. Making a car is a much more complex business than making a smartphone. The “great-leap-forward” model of investing in electric vehicles cannot last long.

Some argue that China’s domestic demand has not yet recovered, and that it is a question whether most people can afford an electric vehicle. One cannot rule out the possibility that some companies and local governments are making the initial investment in order to solicit financial subsidies from the central government.

Source: Central News Agency, May 2, 2021
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202105020185.aspx

China’s Newly Amended Maritime Traffic Safety Law Raises Concerns

On Thursday April 29, China passed a newly amended Maritime Traffic Safety Law, over which a Taiwanese scholar expressed the concerns that Beijing is using the law to expand the gray zone of potential conflicts.

The National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s rubberstamp parliament, announced that the law will come into force on September 1.

Under Article 53 and Article 54, foreign vessels are required to report to the maritime authorities if they are submersible, nuclear powered, carry radioactive or poisonous materials or may in any other way endanger safety in navigation.

Article 92 stipulates that if a foreign ship may threaten the safety of China’s internal waters and territorial waters, the maritime authorities have the right to order it to leave. If a foreign ship violates Chinese laws and regulations on maritime traffic safety or prevention of pollution, the maritime authority may exercise the “right of hot pursuit.” The “right of hot pursuit” refers to the right of the authority of the coastal state to chase a foreign ship to the high seas, arrest those on board and bring the ship back to its port so they can face a trial. It can do this if it has sufficient reason to believe that the foreign ship has violated the laws and regulations of the state.

In addition, in the amended maritime law, China has changed the wording from the phrase “coastal waters” to “jurisdictional waters.

Su Tzu-yun, senior security analyst with Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, considers that both the Maritime Traffic Safety Law and the Maritime Police Law, a new law passed in January, are tools of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to claim and protect its national sovereignty and interests. The CCP is using the law to expand the gray area of conflict, and has raised concerns that this could become a loose cannon for maritime conflicts.

Su said that the Chinese government’s “jurisdictional waters” refers to “the internal waters, the territorial sea, the contiguous zone, the exclusive economic zone, the continental shelf, and other waters under the jurisdiction of the People’s Republic of China,” which it defines more broadly than “coastal waters.” However, the CCP has built many artificial islands in the South China Sea and claims that the 12 nautical miles surrounding each of them are all territorial waters, which gives the CCP an excuse to enforce the law when other countries simply carry out free navigation missions.

Source: Central News Agency, April 30, 2021
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202104300257.aspx

Africa’s Stadiums and China’s Sports Diplomacy

The French newspaper Le Monde recently published two articles that describe how Beijing is actively engaging in sports diplomacy in Switzerland, the headquarters of many international sports organizations. It also describes how the Chinese government is building sports facilities in Africa, especially sports stadiums, to gain control over African heads of government, win local sports markets, and secure access to important sports events in the continent.

The Chinese government is making arrangements in the sports industry to serve its goal of becoming a geopolitical power. One article in Le Monde quotes Carole Gomez, a researcher at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs, who commented that, until the 1950s, sports were marginally important for the Chinese government, except for fitness or training soldiers. Learning from the Cold War, the Chinese began to realize that the Olympic Games were not just a sporting event, and that it should not only participate in international sports competitions; China should also produce outstanding results to promote national pride.

Jean-Loup Chappelet, a professor at the University of Lausanne, Switzerland, outlined the strategic pattern of China’s participation in international sports bodies. It started with the participation of athletes. China followed by actively winning competitions. Then the Chinese government started organizing events. Finally, China gained a seat on the international organizing committee of the sport. Beijing began with table tennis and gymnastics and gradually advanced to a few new sports such as climbing and rugby sevens. Beijing used its huge domestic market and the construction of sports facilities as bait to gain a seat in international sports organizations. . . .  Sources familiar with the International Olympic Committee told Le Monde that international sports are in fact a mirror of today’s international community. What’s going on in the IOC is similar to what goes on at the United Nations and at the World Trade Organization. Beijing is actively pursuing control of these international sports organizations just as it is in other international arenas. While Europe and the United States are leaders in most of the international sports organizations, China is closely following in their footsteps.

Another Le Monde article mentioned that in mid-March, Alassane Ouattara, President of the African country Ivory Coast, personally inaugurated a 60,000-seat stadium, a gift from China, in the northern part of the capital Abidjan. The finale of the 2023 African Cup of Nations, the main international men’s soccer competition in the continent, will be held in Ivory Coast, where China will build two more stadiums elsewhere in the country, in addition to the one in Abidjan. The total cost is expected to be more than 200 million euros. Le Monde commented that China has built and renovated nearly 100 stadiums on the continent in recent decades, apparently to strengthen diplomatic relations with African countries, to open access to local markets, and to secure support from African countries in international organizations such as the United Nations.

In recent years, with the number of countries participating in the tournament increasing from 16 to 24, the Africa Cup of Nations could not have been held without China-built stadiums. The organizers lamented that the countries hosting the tournament could not afford to build their own stadiums and had to rely on China. In January, the rights to broadcast the games were sold to a Chinese company, Star Times. According to internal U.S. diplomatic documents, over the last two decades, Star Times, which gathers intelligence for Beijing in Africa, has become a major player in digital media on the continent. In other words, the African Cup of Nations are often played in China-built stadiums and Chinese media broadcast them.

Source: Radio France International, April 29, 2021
https://rfi.my/7Lth.T