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China’s Sanction of Australian Coal Backfires; Result: Electricity Shortage

China’s boycott of imported coal from Australia has affected many domestic industries. In order to save on coal consumption, places including Zhejiang and Hunan provinces have implemented restrictive measures on electricity usage.

Some netizens posted that they received messages that Yiwu city of Zhejiang province has started power rationing and blackouts. Small businesses and workshops in Yiwu have had their power cut off.

A trading company employee told Radio Free Asia that the electricity rationing measures have affected people’s lives: “Zhejiang is now rationing electricity of all enterprises and government entities. Despite the cold weather, it has been ordered to keep the heaters off until the indoor temperature is below 3 degrees Celsius. … It is probably because of Australian coal. Heaters do not consume lot of electricity, as not many Chinese people use heaters in the winter.”

Another netizen posted a message that in some cities in Zhejiang and Hunan, the traffic lights were turned off in the later part of the night.

The Hunan Provincial government recently issued a notice stating that the daily electricity consumption time slots are from 10:30 am to 12:00 pm and 16:30 pm to 20:30 pm. During these time slots, the landscape lighting in the province will be turned off and street lights will be dimmed. Communist Party and government office buildings will turn off the power on weekends. The situation may last until the 2021 Chinese New Year in February. No reason was specified for the power rationing.

Most export-oriented factories in Zhejiang province have received the “power cut and production reduction” notice. A supplier in Wenzhou city posted a notice showing that between December 15 and 31, high energy consumption enterprises are required to implement electricity rationing. During this period, the authorities will conduct 24-hour surveillance of the electricity consumption for production use. Factories that fail to follow the regulation will be forced to cut off their power and stop production for 20 days.

Australia is a major source of China’s coal imports.

Source: Radio Free Asia, December 16, 2020
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/ql2-12162020032516.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: China’s Rocket Force Increased over 35 Percent in Three Years

A report titled, “Chinese nuclear forces, 2020” was published on December 10 as a result of the research of Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project with the Federation of American Scientists, and Matt Korda, a research associate with the project. The report examines China’s nuclear arsenal, which is estimated to have surpassed France’s as the world’s third largest.

The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF), formerly the Second Artillery Corps (SAC), is China’s strategic and tactical missile force. The PLARF is a component part of the People’s Liberation Army and controls the nation’s arsenal of land-based ballistic missiles—both nuclear and conventional.

According to the December 10 report, “the number of ballistic missile brigades has increased by over 35 percent in just three years. Some of those are still under construction.  … We estimate the PLA Rocket Force currently has up to 40 brigades with ballistic or cruise missile launchers. Of those brigades, approximately half operate ballistic missile launchers with nuclear capability, a number that is likely to grow further as bases currently under construction are completed.”

The report stated that 12 of the brigades belonged to the eastern and southern command theaters, which mainly deal with Taiwan and South China Sea affairs.

The Chinese government did not publish nuclear weaponry information such as the number of warheads. The report estimated that “China has produced a stockpile of approximately 350 nuclear warheads, of which roughly 272 are for delivery by more than 240 operational land-based ballistic missiles, 48 sea-based ballistic missiles, and 20 nuclear gravity bombs assigned to bombers. The remaining 78 warheads are intended to arm additional land- and sea-based missiles that are in the process of being fielded.”

As of 2019, the U.S. had an inventory of 3,800 nuclear warheads, while early this year, Russia had 4,500.

Although China only recently has begun to reassign a formal nuclear mission to the PLA Air Force units, it is developing a bomber with a longer range and improved capabilities to replace its current H-6 bombers. “US officials have stated for several years that the new bomber, known as H-20, will have a nuclear capability. In early 2020 the US Defense Department described the H-20 as a ‘stealth’ bomber whose production will begin within 10 years.”

Although the Jin-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) are still a very noisy design, “it seems likely that China will end production after its now-completed six boats and will turn its efforts to developing the quieter third-generation (Type 096) SSBN, which is scheduled to begin construction in the early 2020s. The completion of a new construction hall at Huludao, where the PLA Navy’s submarines are built, indicates that work may soon begin on the Type 096, which is expected to be larger and heavier than the Type 094.”

Source: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, December 10, 2020
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2020.1846432

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

Professor Claims Chinese Academy of Sciences Developed Hypersonic Jet Engine

At the end of November, the team of Professor Jiang Zonglin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Mechanics published a research paper in the Chinese Journal of Aeronautics, a peer-reviewed academic publication. In his paper, he claimed that the Academy has developed a “standing oblique detonation ramjet engine,” or sodramjet for short. The team said that the engine could take a flight at up to 16 times the speed of sound and an aircraft powered by such an engine could reach anywhere in the world within two hours.

According to the South China Morning Post, the sodramjet was an American idea. An engineer named Richard Morrison came up with the idea and presented it in a 1980 paper that can be downloaded from NASA’s website.

Dr. Uzi Rubin, founder and first director of the Israel Missile Defense Organization, an expert in hypersonic missiles, said the new design was still “very experimental” and its advantages still remained uncertain. He said, “Even though it looks promising … it will take about a generation for it to be used commercially.”  “I believe that hypersonic human flight is not imminent, if it can be done at all.”

Source; Radio Free Asia, December 6, 2020
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/Xinwen/5-12062020143200.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

Chinese Arms Companies’ Sales Increased by 4.8 Percent in 2019

On December 7, 2020, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) issued a report on the state of the global arms industry in 2019. “The data showed that arms sales of the world’s 25 largest arms-producing and military services companies (arms companies) totaled US$361 billion in 2019.”

“12 U.S. companies appear in the top 25 for 2019. They account for 61 percent of the combined arms sales of those top 25.”

“The top 25 also includes four Chinese companies. Three are in the top 10: Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC; ranked 6th), China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC; ranked 8th) and China North Industries Group Corporation (NORINCO; ranked 9th). The combined revenue of the four Chinese companies in the top 25—which also includes China South Industries Group Corporation (CSGC; ranked 24th)—grew by 4.8 per cent between 2018 and 2019.”

SIPRI Senior Researcher Nan Tian said, “The Chinese arms companies are benefiting from military modernization programs for the People’s Liberation Army.”

“After the USA, China accounted for the second largest share of the 2019 arms sales of the top 25 arms companies. Its share was 16 percent.”

Source: SIPRI, December 7, 2020
https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2020/global-arms-industry-sales-top-25-companies-85-cent-big-players-active-global-south

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

EU Adopts its Own ‘Magnitsky’ Act to Sanction Human Rights Abuses

The European Union has agreed to enact a measure similar to the Magnitsky Act in America that will allow the 27 member bloc to sanction those responsible for human rights abuses.

The decision came at a meeting of the European foreign ministers in Brussels on Monday and will allow the EU to freeze assets and impose travel bans on individuals involved in serious human rights abuses.

The new framework is modeled after the Magnitsky Act, a U.S. law named for investor and activist Bill Browder’s late attorney Sergei Magnitsky, who died in a Russian jail after uncovering a massive fraud scheme allegedly involving government officials.

The EU said in a statement that the move allows the bloc “to target individuals, entities and bodies — including state and non-state actors — responsible for, involved in or associated with serious human rights violations and abuses worldwide, no matter where they occurred.”

Concretely, the 27 EU nations could ban targeted people from traveling in Europe and freeze the assets of both officials and “entities” such organizations, companies or banks. Europeans will also be forbidden from making funds available to them.

The sanctions would apply to acts like genocide, crimes against humanity, serious human rights violations or to abuses such as torture, slavery, extrajudicial killings, and arbitrary arrests. Other violations can be punished if they are “widespread, systematic or are otherwise of serious concern.”

Source: Radio Free Asia, December 7, 2020
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/junshiwaijiao/cl-12072020143715.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

U.S. Terminates Five PRC-Funded Propaganda Programs Disguised as “Cultural Exchanges”

The US State Department announced on Friday, December 4, that it would terminate five exchange programs with China, one of which is related to Hong Kong.

These programs include the Policymakers Educational China Trip Program, the U.S.-China Friendship Program, the U.S.-China Leadership Exchange Program, the U.S.-China Transpacific Exchange Program and the Hong Kong Educational and Cultural Program.

Such programs were conducted under Section 108A of the Mutual Educational and Cultural Exchange Act (MECEA), which allows U.S. government employees to travel using foreign government funds.

The state department’s statement called these programs PRC funded propaganda programs disguised as “cultural exchanges.”

“While other programs funded under the auspices of the MECEA are mutually beneficial, the five programs in question are fully funded and operated by the PRC government as soft power propaganda tools. They provide carefully curated access to Chinese Communist Party officials, not to the Chinese people, who do not enjoy the freedoms of speech and assembly. The United States welcomes the reciprocal and fair exchange of cultural programs with PRC officials and the Chinese people, but one-way programs such as these are not mutually beneficial.”

Source: U.S. State Department, December 4, 2020
https://www.state.gov/termination-of-prc-funded-propaganda-programs/

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

China to Build a Dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, Worrying Downstream Countries

A few days ago, Chinese officials confirmed the “Hydropower Development Plan for the Lower Yarlung Tsangpo River,” which is expected to generate 70 gigawatts of electricity, tripling the capacity of China’s largest Three Gorges Dam power station.

The news has caused tension in India. On December 1, a senior official from the Ministry of Jal Shakti (the Indian cabinet ministry in charge of water affairs) told Reuters that India is planning to build a ten-gigawatt hydropower project in the east to offset the impact of China’s upstream dam construction on water flow.

Jagannath P. Panda, a researcher with the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses based in New Delhi said, “This has been a genuine concern for India for a long time.” In 2002, China and India signed a memorandum on cooperation in the field of water conservancy. In 2018 another memorandum on this river was signed for the purpose of sharing hydrological data to help the downstream countries to deploy flood control or ecological protection plans.

Although India expects China to consult India before building any dam upstream and to maintain transparency of information, China has been “selectively” sharing hydrological information over the past years, or refusing to provide information when relations between the two countries became tense. Every year in the rainy season, India, downstream of the river, has been plagued by floods.

The Yarlung Tsangpo River flows through China and many South Asian countries. Originating in Tibet, the river runs more than 2,000 kilometers in China before heading south into India. Indians call it the Brahmaputra River, which is nearly 650 kilometers long inside the country. After entering Bangladesh, it was renamed the Yamuna River and merged with the Ganges in the Bay of Bengal. Its tributaries also flow through Nepal and Bhutan and are the economic lifeline of many countries in South Asia.

On November 26, the Power Construction Corporation of China (PowerChina) confirmed that it has finalized a hydropower development plan for the lower part of the river and plans to launch the project during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period (2021-2025). Yan Zhiyong, Chairman of PowerChina called this project an unprecedented “historical opportunity.” He said that China will benefit from the geographic advantage of the “big bend” on the lower reaches of the river, which gathers nearly 70 gigawatts of technologically developable resources, a scale tripling the capacity of Three Gorges Dam. Chinese officials have done some beautiful math for Tibet: the dam will provide nearly 300 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of clean, renewable, and zero-carbon electricity every year, bringing in 20 billion yuan (US$ 3 billion) in fiscal revenue.

Farwa Aamer, a scholar from the East-West Center, a U.S. think tank based in Honolulu, Hawaii, explains that the deep anxiety of South Asian countries comes from the scarcity of water resources caused by climate change and the possibility that China’s construction of dams may directly affect the agricultural economy and natural ecology of downstream countries. In addition, the relationship between South Asian countries and China is complicated and lacks a platform for cross-country dialogue. South Asian countries are also quite worried about whether water resources will become a strategic tool for China when relations with China are tense.

Source: Radio Free Asia, December 1, 2020
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/huanjing/jt-12012020102607.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

45 Japanese Universities Make Agreements with China’s “Seven Sons of National Defense”

According to a Kyodo News report on November 29, seven defense related Chinese universities that conduct military technological research made an academic and student exchange agreement with a total of 45 public and private universities in Japan, among which nine Japanese universities have joint research programs.

The seven Chinese universities, including Beihang University and Northwestern Polytechnical University, are under the administration of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which oversees China’s national defense industry. They are known as the “Seven Sons of National Defense.” It has been reported that these universities are also involved in developing the equipment for the People’s Liberation Army. Three universities that are likely to transform their technology into the development of weapons of mass destruction are on the “foreign user list” of the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The United States has four of the universities on the list of countries to which exports are banned. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute believes that the risk of cooperating with these seven Chinese universities is “very high.”

Kyodo News interviewed 51 Japanese universities that were in agreement with the Chinese side in the 2017 survey that the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan conducted. Kyodo received responses from 49 of them. Six universities had already completed the agreement and 16 universities indicated that they may adjust their agreements. The Shibaura Institute of Technology understands that the Chinese universities are on the “list of foreign users” and is waiting for the end of that agreement. Some universities have also replied that they will adjust parts of multiple agreements or that only the portion on student exchanges will be maintained.

Among the 9 universities that have joint research programs with China, Chiba Institute of Technology replied that it has “discontinued” the programs. Hokkaido University (in the field of nanotechnology) and Osaka University (in the field of nuclear research) stated that they will conduct joint research on the basis of thorough management. As of November 28, seven universities including Kyoto University did not respond to the questions about the existence of a joint research with China.

Source: Kyodo News, November 29, 2020
https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2020/11/5a131355030b-45.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend