Briefings - 112. page

China’s central government has issued a one-time subsidy of 10 billion yuan (US$1.45 billion) to actual grain farmers in order to support spring farming and stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers to plant crops. According to official data, China has approximately 500 million farmers, including 300 million rural migrant workers and fewer than 200 million permanent residents. This is the first time the government has offered a one-time financial subsidy to farmers. The subsidy targets those who actually grow crops, including those who use their own contracted land, large-scale households, family farms, farmers’ cooperatives, agricultural enterprises, and individuals and organizations that provide full-cycle socialized services for grain cultivation and harvesting.

However, some agricultural experts claim that China’s food security situation is severe and this subsidy is not enough to solve the problem. Yang Hua, a retired lecturer at Yunnan University, claimed that the subsidy would only provide 66 yuan (US $9.60) per person to approximately 150 million grain farmers, which would only be enough to purchase 20 kilograms of rice. Meanwhile, Cai Shenkun, a senior financial commentator, stated that, in recent years, there has been a significant shortage of rural labor in China. The phenomenon of farmland abandonment is very serious, particularly in coastal areas. In this situation, farmers have no incentive to grow crops since the more they grow, the more money they lose. As a result, the government must increase grain prices to support farmers and ensure food security.

Additionally, Chinese customs data for the first two months of 2023 revealed that the price of grain and of edible vegetable oil imports has risen significantly, indicating a further strain on China’s food security.

Source: Radio Free Asia, April 17, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/gt2-04172023050715.html

In China, a growing number of workers are resorting to the food delivery industry for employment as they struggle to secure jobs elsewhere. However, the industry is facing increasing competition as the surplus of delivery workers makes it difficult for individuals to secure enough orders to earn a decent income. Despite recruitment efforts by platforms such as Meituan, there are now more delivery workers than there is demand for their services. As a result, workers are facing intense competition and low earnings, with many struggling to make ends meet. The challenging working conditions were highlighted in a recent Chinese media report that described the cramped living quarters and difficult financial situation faced by many delivery workers. While food delivery work has been a lifeline for struggling workers, the long-term sustainability of the industry as a source of employment is now being questioned.

Source: World Journal (Taiwan), April 14, 2023
https://www.worldjournal.com/wj/story/121474/7099432

Amid financial pressures, many local governments in China are reducing the number of non-official personnel to cut down on expenses. This move follows the release of the “Plan for the Reform of Party and State Institutions” by the Chinese Communist Party and the State Council in March 2021, which aimed to streamline personnel structures. Cities such as Harbin, Shiyan, Chuxiong, and Huizhou have started reducing non-official staff. Shiyan city in Hubei province reportedly saved around RMB 15 million (US$2.2 million) after removing 326 non-official personnel, which accounted for around 9 percent of total non-official staff. Chuxiong plans to reduce non-official personnel by 265, or around 6.5 percent, which would lead to a decrease of approximately RMB 3.6 million (US$0.5 million) in government expenditure.

The reduction in non-official personnel is expected to reduce the financial burden on local governments, including salaries, social security contributions, and medical insurance costs. Furthermore, since non-official personnel are not included in the official headcount, their qualifications and abilities can be uneven and they may not be able to handle all tasks. Therefore, cutting non-official staff could allow for more experienced personnel to handle affairs, leading to better government efficiency.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), April 11, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202304110140.aspx

According to Liu Yuhui, a Professor at the Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s economy has fallen into recession.

“In a word, the current economic situation in China is that deflation has begun, and the economy has fallen into the recession,” Liu wrote in an article published recently. The following summarizes his view on the issue of debts.

In the previous 15 months, China’s M2 has increased by more than 40 trillion. But it has not stopped the economy from sliding into deflation.

There are 1.4 billion people in China. According to the statistics of China’s central bank, 700 million people are now in debt. If children and older people are excluded, almost everyone in the country is in debt.

The total debt of the household sector accounts for as much as 137.9 percent of its disposable income, and the debt ratio of American households is about 90 percent in the same period. There is a more than 40 percentage points gap between China and the United States.

The ability of households to pay is constrained significantly. The annual interest payment accounts for nearly 15% of disposable income to cope with such debts. In the same period in the United States, this figure was 7%. From January to February 2023, the total amount of credit in China’s household sector was only 290 billion, less than 300 billion.

The high debt ratio of 137.9 percent today is much worse than the below 80 percent in 2015. This radio doubled in seven years. As a result, the ability and willingness to spend and borrow in the entire economy are rapidly collapsing.

Liu believed a breakthrough leading to China’s economic recovery in 2023 is indeed difficult.

Source: iNewsDB, April 12, 2023
https://bit.ly/3UJVnew

Radio France Internationale (RFI) Chinese Edition recently reported that, since December, large delegations of officials from across China have already made hundreds of visits to Asia and Europe. Local governments have been scrambling to meet growth and employment targets. According to three sources, local officials, along with their municipal and provincial supervisors and local businesses, have been traveling abroad more than ever before. The Chinese economy has paid a huge price due to China’s strict Zero Covid policy. After three years behind closed borders, officials have traveled to Hong Kong, Paris and the like within days of the restrictions being lifted. Their urgency underscores the pressure on local governments to boost growth while saddled with a cumulative US$9 trillion in debt. A video that was posted online by the government of the eastern province of Jiangsu showed a 200-member Chinese delegation even chanting slogans like “grab new orders” as they boarded a private jet bound for Europe at 1 am. Just two days after China abruptly lifted the Zero Covid restrictions, that delegation alone was said to be scheduled to hold more than 230 business meetings in Europe. Wuxi, which is close to the commercial center of Shanghai, held 85 signing ceremonies during a 7-day trip to Hong Kong, Macau and Shenzhen, with a total transaction value of RMB 156 billion yuan (around US$22.7 billion). However, many foreign investors are still complaining about the unfair playing field, intellectual property theft and unpredictable rules for overseas companies.

Source: RFI Chinese, April 7, 2023
https://bit.ly/3KFecLp