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RFA: Forced TV Confession Victims Called for Chinese Communist Broadcasting to Stop

Radio Free Asia (RFA) Chinese Edition recently reported that thirteen victims who had been forced by the Chinese Communist Party to make TV confessions jointly called the European satellite carrier Eutelsat for an immediate stop to the broadcasting of the CCTV4 and CGTN channels. According to one of the organizers, Swedish human rights activist Peter Dahlin, Norway communications provider Telia already agreed to cut off CGTN. In addition to Peter Dahlin, the thirteen victims also include people from the former staff of the British Consulate General in Hong Kong, other Hong Kong residents, and Chinese Mainland human rights lawyers and activists. The joint announcement was published via NGO (Non-Governmental Organization) Safeguard Defenders. The announcement described the facts that the Chinese Communists forced the victims to confess guilt on national TV and took away their legal rights to a fair trial. The open announcement also stated that more victims could not speak up and some had even been executed. The victims have nowhere to claim compensation. Earlier, Sweden stopped CGTN and CCTV4 due to the fact that the channels broadcasted the forced confession video of two Swedish citizens.

Source: RFA, April 13, 2021
https://www.rfa.org/cantonese/news/nw-tele-04132021102013.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Former Premier Wen Jiabao’s Article Banned from Being Shared on Wechat

Former Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao recently published a long article in the Macao Herald to commemorate his mother. The article mentioned that, for him, to work inside the Zhongnanhai leadership compound was like walking on thin ice. At the end of the article, he wrote, “In my mind, China should be a country that has complete fairness and justice,” but the article was banned from being shared on WeChat citing violations of WeChat policy. The contents shared on Phoenix.com and other media were also deleted.

Many people are shocked that Wen’s article was blocked from being shared and wondered why. Cai Xia, a CCP party school professor currently living in the U.S. said that Wen did some self-reflection in the article. There was no mention of democracy or the rule of law but it was still banned from being shared. This suggests that the ruling party fears the rights of the people. @LifetimeUSCN commented on its twitter account that Wen’s mentioning the danger and risk that he faced while working inside the Zhongnanhai CCP leadership compound might have upset Xi Jinping.

When Wen Jiabao was the prime minister and Hu Jintao was the general secretary of the CCP, people referred to them as the “Hu-Wen Administration.” It was considered by many to have been a stable period. Wen Jiabao was regarded as a moderate and open-minded leader because of his advocacy of universal values in party newspapers. He also repeatedly expressed the hope of promoting political system reform.

Some netizens believe that there is another important reason why Wen Jiabao still got attention in China. The Hu-Wen administration is considered to be much better than the current “new era.” Although it was also a one-party communist dictatorship, at least it was not like the current stage where everything is determined by the “Supreme One” [Xi Jinping] who amended the constitution and became a self-proclaimed emperor. SARS didn’t spread to the world and became a worldwide epidemic. Hong Kong was not like what it is now, and there was no trade war between China and the U.S.

Source: Radio France Internationale, April 19, 2021
https://www.rfi.fr/cn/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD/20210418-%E6%B8%A9%E5%AE%B6%E5%AE%9D%E5%BF%86%E6%AF%8D%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E7%A6%81%E6%AD%A2%E5%88%86%E4%BA%AB

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

Bank of China: Economic Slowdown in the Next 30 Years Due to Demographic Transition

The Bank of China, the central bank of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), recently published a paper dated March 26, 2021. The paper warned that the aging population and declining birthrate are more severe in China than in developed countries and that China will face far more severe challenges for a long time into the future.

China’s economic growth will slow down.

First, there will be a reduction in the working population. China’s economic growth has been under the reform and opening up of production.  A demographic dividend transformed China’s economic growth. Since 2010, the Chinese economy has entered a new norm with declining potential output, directly caused by the decline in the labor force. It is estimated that from 2020 to 2050, the working population will decrease year by year at a rate of more than 0.5 percent and by 2050 it will have dropped by 15.2 percent compared to 2019. In 2010 the working population was 74.5 percent of the total population By 2019, it fell to 70.6 percent. It will be 64.6 percent by 2035 and 59.8 percent by 2050.

Second, the burden of elderly care is growing. The elderly dependency ratio, the ratio of the elderly population (ages 65+) per 100 people of working age (ages 15-64), will reach 36 percent. It was 17.8 percent in 2019 and is expected to be 32.0 percent and 43.6 percent by 2035 and 2050, respectively. If calculated based on retirement at the age of 60 (that is, no delay in retirement), the elderly dependency ratio will rise to 49.8 percent and 67.6 percent, respectively. It means one worker will need to support 0.5 and 0.7 elderly, respectively. Further, government pension expenditures as a proportion of GDP have risen rapidly. They were at 5.3 percent in 2019, an increase of 4.5 percentage points from 1990. As the old-age dependency ratio increases in the future, this expenditure will continue to rise.

Third, China will face low growth, low-interest rates, low inflation, and high debt. China’s demographic transition means that more people are consuming and fewer people are producing, which leads to economic stagnation, weak consumer prices, and declining asset prices. It will be very similar to the current situation of low growth, low-interest rates, low inflation, and high debt in Japan, Italy, and other countries. Moreover, the situation in China may be more difficult because of the faster population transition, with a growing aging population and declining birthrate.

The central bank paper said, “The economic gap with the United States will continue.”

The paper continued, pointing out that while China is facing the acceleration of its aging population and a declining birth rate, the U.S. population is undergoing favorable changes due to immigration and other reasons.

While the population in China is declining, the United States’ population is increasing. The United Nations predicts that, by the year 2050, the United States’ population will increase by 50 million, compared to 2019, an increase of 15 percent, while China will decrease by approximately 32 million in the same period, a decrease of 2.2 percent.

Fourth, China’s working population has been decreasing while the U.S. working population has been increasing. It is estimated that in 2035 and 2050, the size of China’s working population will drop by 4.6 percent and 15.2 percent from 2019, while the United States will grow by 2.4 percent and 7.7 percent, respectively, for the same periods. In terms of the ratio between the working population and the total population, China and the United States were 70.6 percent and 65.2 percent, respectively, in 2019. China will be 5.4 percentage points higher than that of the United States; in 2035, the gap will be reduced to 3.2 percentage points; in 2050, China will be lower than the United States by 1.3 percentage points.

Fifth, China’s elderly care burden is increasing faster than that of the United States. In 2019, China’s elderly dependency ratio was 17.8 percent and the United States was 24.8 percent, and China was seven percentage points lower than the United States. In 2035, the two countries will be basically the same. In 2050, China will be seven percentage points higher than the United States.

Sixth, China’s population structure will be very different from that of the United States. By 2050, China’s population distribution will be narrower at the bottom with fewer children and a shrinking working population in the middle, but wider at the top with a larger elderly population. For the United States, the bottom and middle of its population structure will be much wider, showing more young people and more working-age people. The top will be narrower, showing a smaller elderly population.

The central bank paper asked, “If, in the past 40 years, China had been able to narrow the economic gap with the United States by relying on cheap labor and substantial demographic dividends, then what would China rely on in the next 30 years?”

Sources:

1. Bank of China, March 26, 2021
http://www.pbc.gov.cn/redianzhuanti/118742/4122386/4122692/4214189/4215394/2021032618473569432.pdf

2. China.com, April 14, 2021
https://finance.china.com/domestic/11173294/20210415/37251654.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources US-China Relations

RSF: Hong Kong Epoch Times Printing Plant Ransacked again

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) stated that Hong Kong Epoch Times printing plant was ransacked on April 12 for the second time in less than two years. It called on Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam to “put an end to the climate of suspicion surrounding independent media and that of impunity, which make such attacks possible.”

RSF issued a press release on April 14 stating that four armed masked individuals attacked the Hong Kong printing plant of the Epoch Times on April 12. The individuals not only threatened the employees of the printing plant, but also used a sledgehammer to damage the main printing presses and other equipment. Surveillance cameras recorded the whole incident. It was the second time that the Epoch Times printing plant in Hong Kong was attacked. Two years ago in 2019, the printing plant was set on fire.

Cédric Alviani, head of the RSF East Asia bureau, said, “By leaving previous attacks on journalists unpunished and creating a climate of suspicion against independent media outlets, the Hong Kong authorities are encouraging such violence.”

RSF stated that the Epoch Times is not the only media that has been violently attacked in Hong Kong in recent years. On July 1, 2019, several masked men vandalized Citizens’ Radio, an independent radio station. In 2015, two arson attacks targeted Pro-democratic Apple Daily. In 2014, an individual with a knife attacked and severely injured Kevin Lau, the former editor-in-chief of Ming Pao.

RSF pointed out that Hong Kong used to be a bastion of press freedom. At present, Hong Kong’s ranking in the RSF World Press Freedom Index has fallen from 18th in 2002 to 80th in 2020.

Source:

1. Central News Agency, April 15, 2021
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202104150238.aspx
2. Reporters Without Borders (RSF) rsf.org
https://rsf.org/en/news/hong-kong-daily-newspaper-epoch-times-ransacked-again

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

Truck Drivers in China Face Risk of Excessive Traffic Violation Fines

Several excessive traffic violation fines given to truck drivers in China have caught the public’s attention.

On April 5, Jin Deqiang, a 51-year-old truck driver from Hebei province took his life because he received a 2,000 yuan (US$307) fine at a checkpoint because of a failed Beidou navigation connection inside his truck. The truck drivers in China usually make 200 to 400 yuan (US$31-$61) a day. In his suicidal note, he asked how a truck driver would know that the Beidou navigation was not working. He said in the past ten years of working as a truck driver, he didn’t make much money even though his health condition was deteriorating. He hopes his death will alert the officials to pay attention to the matter. He left behind his wife, three children and his mother.

Other truck drivers are experiencing similar issues with the Beidou navigation system. A Youtube video showed a driver sharing his experience. He said he was fined numbers of times for the bad connection. Even though he pays an annual maintenance fee for the system, he still wouldn’t know if the connection had been dropped as all the signals on the front panel appeared to be working. He said the authorities are using the navigation system as a tool to penalize the drivers while imposing the fine on the truck driver is not fair.

Another case happened in the northern mountainous region of China. A county was reported to have received 30 million yuan (US$4.6 million) or 1/3 of its annual revenue from traffic tickets. With no highway access, the county is the only path for local coal transportation. The area is very much underdeveloped so it looks to the law enforcement agencies for fiscal revenue. The county set up 10 traffic cameras on the main road within 40 mile stretch. The drivers are often tricked because of a sudden change in the speed limit and they have to pay 1,000 yuan (US$153) for each violation.

According to China’s National Business Daily, there are about 30 million truck drivers in China, and more than 90 percent are self-employed. These drivers not only have to deal with personal injury and accidents. They also have experienced excessive fines due to overloading, speeding and other violations.

Source:
1. Epoch Times, April 8, 2021
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/21/4/8/n12867732.htm
2. Sina, April 17, 2021
https://news.sina.com.tw/article/20210417/38256134.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China to Strengthen Military Training for High School Students

China’s Ministry of Education and the office of National Defense Mobilization under the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) released a “Syllabus for the Military Training of High School Students.” It will be implemented on August 1, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CCP. The syllabus specifies that the military training curriculum for Chinese high school students should not be less than 56 class hours or 7 days in total.

According to the official website of the Ministry of Education, the preamble of the syllabus, which was released nationwide on March 26 and only announced on April 13, emphasizes that the syllabus was developed in order to implement fully “the Party’s education policy,” implement “the fundamental requirements of the goal of strengthening the military,” comprehensively regulate the organization and implementation of military training for high school students, and “strengthen the building of national defense reserve forces.”

The syllabus emphasizes that the organization of student military training is a “mandatory educational activity” in high schools, and is an important measure that will implement comprehensively the “Party’s education policy,” the “strategic military policy for the new era and the overall national security concept.” It will also strengthen national defense education, the building of the national defense reserve force and the quality of education for young students.

The syllabus specifies that the military training for Chinese high school students consists of two parts: “basic military knowledge” and “basic military skills.” The teaching time ranges from 7 to 14 days, with a total of no less than 7 days and 56 class hours (one “class hour” means one class period including the class break).

Among them, “basic military knowledge” includes 24 class hours, of which 12 hours are compulsory training and 12 are of optional training. “Basic military skills” has 88 class hours, including 44 hours of compulsory training and 44 of optional training.

This syllabus strictly orders that all types of high schools should not reduce the content of military training and the required hours. Schools are also encouraged to offer courses on military knowledge and skills training to broaden the content of military training.

Source: Central News Agency, April 13, 2021
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202104130343.aspx

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

LTN: U.S. Lawmakers Called for Taiwan-Made Chinese Education to Replace Confucius Institutes

Major Taiwanese news network Liberty Times Network (LTN) recently reported that 21 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate, including Senator Marsha Blackburn and Congresswoman Michelle Steel, wrote to the U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona in March, calling for replacing the Confucius Institutes with Taiwan-based Chinese language education programs. The goal is to let U.S. students learn Chinese in an environment without censorship and threats. This new action is to build on the Taiwan-US Education Initiative created last December. The joint letter also copied Sung Kim, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian & Pacific Affairs. The U.S. lawmakers mentioned that there are still Confucius Institutes operating in 55 U.S. colleges today. On the surface, it appears to be an effort to teach Chinese language and the Chinese culture. In fact, the Confucius Institute is sponsored and monitored by the Chinese Ministry of Education. Many times, research has shown that its operations pressured the teachers to avoid anything that damages the interests of the Chinese Communist Party. However, we have to recognize that there is a global education need for the Chinese language, culture and history, which can be fulfilled by Taiwan-based education programs without any censorship.

Source: LTN, April 7, 2021
https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/3491720

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations

Shanghai Became the Most Expensive City in the World

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) recently reported that, according to Swiss Julius Baer Group’s Global Wealth and Lifestyle Report 2021, Asia remains the most expensive region in the world and Shanghai, replacing Hong Kong, has become the world’s top city with the highest living cost. The report showed that Shanghai’s consumer prices increased by six percent last year, while the global average was only one percent. Shanghai’s business class airfare and hotel lodging price both increased rapidly. Hong Kong dropped its ranking from number one to number three. Tokyo now ranks number two. The Julius Baer Report covers 25 major cities in the world, mainly tracking the prices of 20 high-end products and services to compose high-end lifestyle indicators. This year’s focal point was on the impact of the pandemic and the findings showed a serious drop for travel related industries.

Source: Sina, April 9, 2021
https://finance.sina.com.cn/china/dfjj/2021-04-09/doc-ikmyaawa8744146.shtml

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources