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HKEJ: Dimon Said China’s Risk-Reward Profile Has Changed Dramatically

Hong Kong Economic Journal (HKEJ) recently reported that JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said China has been “very consistent” in opening its markets to financial services companies, but calculating the potential benefits for U.S. companies has become more complicated. In an interview with CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Dimon said investors that are considering expanding into China have to be “a little worried.” He added that he met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang on the sidelines of the Davos conference and “it’s a good thing they’re here.”

In the wide-ranging interview, Dimon also talked about the U.S. economy. In recent months, Dimon has repeatedly said that inflation may not disappear as quickly as the market expects, and that the Fed may have to further raise the benchmark interest rate. He said it would be a mistake to think that the future is all bright given that the U.S. already had so much fiscal and monetary stimulus — he would remain cautious.

Source: HKEJ, January 17, 2024
https://www2.hkej.com/instantnews/article?id=3664469

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Mingpao: Moody’s Downgrades China’s Four Major Distressed Asset Management Firms

Mingpao, one of the primary Hong Kong newspapers, recently reported that rating agency Moody’s has just downgraded the credit ratings of the four major Chinese non-performing asset management companies.

  • Huarong’s (HKSE 2799) long-term issuer rating was downgraded by one notch to Ba1, a non-investment grade commonly known as junk level. The rating outlook for Huarong remained negative.
  • Moody’s also downgraded Oriental Asset Management by one level to Baa2.
  • Cinda (HKSE 1359) fell below A3 and was downgraded by one level to Baa1, the same rating as Huarong. The downgrade reflects continued tension in the Chinese real estate market and slowing economic growth. There is pressure on Cinda’s asset profitability, asset quality and capital position.
  • Moody’s also downgraded Great Wall Asset Management’s long-term credit rating by one notch to Baa3, just one notch above junk status. This was mainly due to Great Wall’s continued major deficiencies in corporate governance and pressure on its capital position – they delayed the release of the 2022 annual performance report.

The other two major rating agencies, S&P and Fitch, also downgraded the credit ratings of China’s four major asset management companies in September of last year and January of this year, respectively. According to the Mingpao article, there is a lack of sustainability and transparency in supporting asset management companies that have suffered large losses and capital erosion. Moody’s expects that Chinese officials will prioritize resources to support state-owned enterprises.

Source: Mingpao, January 20, 2024
http://tinyurl.com/mr23wrr5

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources US-China Relations

China Obtains 99 Year Lease on Myanmar Port After Brokering Regional Ceasefire

China has obtained rights to a Port in Kyaukpyu, Myanmar for 99 years after Beijing negotiated a ceasefire between the Myanmar government and an armed alliance of opposition groups. The Kyaukpyu Port will give China a logistical presence on the Indian Ocean, enabling bypass of the Malacca strait shipping route. Some have said that Beijing supported the opposition group in Myanmar so as to pressure Myanmar’s government.

The past few months’ conflict in Myanmar started with three armed groups in northern Myanmar (the Kachin, the De’ang, and the Shan) banding together to form a “Myanmar Alliance Army.” The group launched attacks against Myanmar’s government forces in the name of “rescuing Chinese people and combating electronic fraud.” The alliance army secured a series of victories against the Myanmar government army, taking some territory.

On January 10th and 11th, China successfully brokered a ceasefire agreement between the two sides. The deal was struck in Kunming City, Yunnan Province, China. As part of the agreement, Beijing demanded that the Myanmar government enter a contract leasing Myanmar’s Kyaukpyu Port to China for 99 years. Having suffered defeats in the field, the Myanmar government had no choice but to cede use of the port.

According to the Aboluo website, Beijing provided support to the Myanmar Alliance Army in the form of advanced weapons, communication equipment, and drones. There were also rumors that Chinese soldiers dressed as members of the alliance army and fought some of the battles against the Myanmar government’s military. Aboluo commentary suggests that China supported the armed opposition in Myanmar not to “stop electronic fraud crime rings in Myanmar” but rather to secure use of the port in Kyaukpyu.

The Kyaukpyu Port is situated on the Indian Ocean; it may well become the best seaport serving the southwest and central regions of China. Its use will significantly reduce China’s dependence on shipping routes through the Strait of Malacca, making it easier for China to import and export to the global market directly via the Indian Ocean.

Beijing proposed a development plan for Kyaukpyu Port as early as 2007 under its “Belt and Road Initiative,” aiming to establish a land-sea transportation network connecting Kyaukpyu to China’s Kunming city via railways and highways. Negotiations between Beijing and Myanmar went on for 12 years. China and Myanmar signed a 50-year lease agreement for the port in 2018, but this agreement fell apart when Myanmar’s current leader Min Aung Hlaing came to power in a 2021 military coup.

Source: Aboluo, January 15, 2024
https://www.aboluowang.com/2024/0115/2004525.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

Commentator: Local Government Debts Driving Chinese Market Decline

Lao Man (老蛮), a well-known Chinese Internet commentator, posted on the X platform about why China’s stock market keeps losing money:

“Local governments [in China] have been approved to issue 2.7 trillion yuan (US$ 380 billion) in bonds, and issuance of these debts is now underway. This is the fundamental reason for the continued decline in the stock market, draining over 20 billion yuan from the stock market every day.

In 2024, the most important economic factor [in China] is the local government debt. Keep an eye on it; it is the underlying factor behind all economic phenomena.”

Source: Twitter, @laomanpindao

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

People’s Daily: A New Form of Warfare Has Emerged, China Must Keep Up

People’s Daily published an article asserting that a new form of warfare is emerging in the modern era, calling for China to become familiar with the new modes of battle. “There are new rules on battlefield, rules of information and intelligence. Those who can lead in this new setting will seize victory. … There are some who claim to fight against us in a high-level war. That ‘high-level war’ refers to a new form of warfare, with new rules and new styles. It no longer relies on our traditional advantages, but rather on technological warfare, informational warfare, and hybrid warfare.”

The article went on to analyze recent military trends: “Recent regional wars have demonstrated new developments in hybrid warfare and proxy warfare. Various forms of combat, such as unmanned warfare, cognitive offense and defense, intelligence gathering, and force deployment, are emerging as crucial variables influencing the course of conflict. Especially in modern warfare, combat formations are shifting from being ‘people-based’ to being ‘machine-based,’ and the mode of engagement is transitioning from ‘human-in-the-loop’ to ‘human-out-of-the-loop.'” (Editor’s note: the term “human-out-of-the-loop” may refer to increased use of unmanned vehicles/drones in combat, or perhaps to the rise of automated systems that can engage targets without input from a human pilot.)

“In the intelligence era, future battlefields will expand from traditional domains such as land, sea, air, space, and electronics to new realms including information, algorithms, cognition, and more. This change will manifest in characteristics such as spatial expansion [of war], the intertwining of multiple domains, and multi-dimensional interaction, making for an extremely complex battlefield environment. All of this is inseparable from scientific and technological development. Those who possess a scientific and technological advantage will have the upper hand on the battlefield.”

Source: People’s Daily, January 8, 2024
http://military.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0108/c1011-40154565.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

People’s Daily on Recent Financial Cooperation Between China and Arabic Countries

CCP newspaper People’s Daily has published a list of ways that China has been cooperating with Arabic countries recently.

  • Starting on January 1, 2024, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran, and Ethiopia officially became members of the BRICS countries, increasing the total number of BRICS member countries from 5 to 10. Abdullah, the Minister of Economy of the UAE, stated that there would be additional capital injection into the BRICS Development Bank.
  • On November 28, 2023, China People’s Bank and the UAE Central Bank renewed their Renminbi/Dirham Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement, valid for 5 years, with a swap scale of 35 billion RMB/18 billion UAE Dirhams.
  • In November 2023, the People’s Bank of China signed a bilateral currency swap agreement with the Saudi Central Bank, with a swap scale of 50 billion RMB/26 billion Saudi Riyals. The agreement is valid for 3 years and can be extended with mutual consent.
  • In October 2023, the China Export-Import Bank signed a cooperation agreement with the African Bank of Morocco. Both parties will “actively promote economic and trade exchanges and financial cooperation through project financing, parallel financing, and trade financing.”
  • The Chinese Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Chen Weiqing, said that as of 2023 the China’s Export-Import Bank and the National Bank of Saudi Arabia have successfully implemented the first RMB loan project [to Saudi Arabia]. The Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have also opened branches in Saudi Arabia.
  • The 2023 International Maritime Awards ceremony was held in Shanghai, where the COSCO Shipping Ports’ Abu Dhabi Terminal won the “Port Terminal Innovation Award.” The terminal was jointly constructed by COSCO Shipping Ports and the Abu Dhabi Ports Authority, with support from China’s Silk Road Fund. Since opening in 2018, the terminal has established direct connections with 65 ports worldwide. Its container throughput exceeded 1 million standard containers in 2022.
  • On October 30, 2023, the China Development Bank completed the full disbursement of a 7 billion RMB loan agreement with the Central Bank of Egypt.
  • On October 9, 2023, the China Export Credit Insurance Corporation issued the first medium-to-long-term insurance policy for a “new energy power” financing project, providing medium-to-long-term export buyer credit insurance support for the “Manna 2” 500 MW photovoltaic power (solar power) station project in Oman. In the same month, the performance test for Unit 4 of the Hassyan Power Station project in Dubai was successfully completed, marking the commercial operation of all 4 units at that power station. The power station was jointly financed and constructed by China’s Silk Road Fund, the Harbin Electric Group, and UAE investment institutions, representing the first investment of the Silk Road Fund in the Middle East.
  • The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China recently held a bond listing ceremony at the Nasdaq Dubai Exchange. The “green bonds” issued by the bank were simultaneously listed on stock exchanges in Hong Kong, Dubai (UAE), Singapore, and Luxembourg, with a total issuance size of approximately USD 2 billion.
  • In November 2023, Shanghai Stock Exchange signed a “memorandum of understanding for cooperation” with Dubai Financial Market. Both parties “plan to jointly explore and develop financial products related to ESG (environmental, social, and corporate governance) and sustainable development, as well as cross-border indices, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and other financial products.”

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Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

An Example of CCP Propaganda: Spinning the Conflict in the Red Sea

The Aboluo website published an article titled “the Differences Between News and Propaganda.” The article illustrates how a CCP news outlet put spin on recent martial developments in the Red Sea.

First, the article quoted a report by wester media: “Four small boats of Houthi armed forces in Yemen attacked the German Maersk Hangzhou commercial ship in the Red Sea. The Hangzhou requested help from U.S. escort warships. A U.S. ship sent a helicopter to fly over, sinking three Houthi boats and killing ten people. The last boat fled.

Next, the Aboluo article quoted a report by China Central Television (CCTV) on the same topic: “Recently in the Red Sea, a U.S. warship sank three Yemeni Houthi armed boats, killing ten people.”

In the Aboluo article’s analysis, the CCTV report intentionally hid the reason why the U.S. navy had taken on the Houthi boats, which was because the Houthis were trying to attack a container ship. The message that the CCTV report sent to its audience was that the U.S. had bullied the Houthi boats for no reason.

Source: Aboluo, January 7, 2024
https://www.aboluowang.com/2024/0107/2000801.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Government/Politics

Huang Qifan Pitches Government Buyup of Residential Housing Following Further Fall in Real Estate Prices

A video of Huang Qifan has been circulating in China, generating some heated discussion. Huang expressed his view that the Chinese government should buy up residential housing following a potential drop in real estate prices. Huang is the former mayor of Chongqing and former Vice Chairman of the Financial and Economic Committee of China’s National People’s Congress.

Recently, the Chinese government suggested splitting residential housing into two categories: Commercial Housing, which people would be allowed to buy and sell, and Government Subsidized Housing, which would be owned by the government. This latter category, ineligible for purchase or sale by the public, would be leased out by the government to people in financial need.

In the video of Huang, he stated that housing prices in China have already fallen 10 to 20 percent over the past couple of years. If prices were to fall another 30 percent this year then the total drop in price would be 40 to 50 percent down from the peak. When this happens, he said, the government could “take the opportunity” to buy up these apartments. Cities could use 5 trillion yuan (US$ 700 billion) to buy up such apartments and then lease them out as the Government Subsidized Housing. He said that housing prices would then rise back up over the subsequent five to ten years, and this would be an excellent way for the government to “save the housing market.” He argued that the government would not lose any money (it would actually make money), and it would avoid needing to spend money on building out Government Subsidized Housing.

Huang went on to argue that there is no moral problem with his proposed plan of action. In his analysis, the proposed approach has many benefits: it “solves the supply of the Government Subsidized Housing,” saves the real estate market, resolves extra housing capacity (i.e. reduces oversupply of housing), saves real estate companies and banks, and “balances social debts.”

Huang also proposed an approach for bringing down housing prices in China: by tightening the money supply and loan activity, the government could cause many house foreclosures. When the share of foreclosed housing reaches a certain proportion, housing prices in the market more broadly would fall.

An article on the Aboluo  website criticized Huang’s argument. The article reasoned that the “base housing price” from five years ago was 50 percent of recent peak in housing prices, and that the general public had benefited greatly from this rise in real estate asset prices. If the government were to let housing prices fall by 50 percent, the public (which is heavily invested in real estate) would take a big monetary loss. Following Huang’s plan, the government would then buy the housing at the base price (a 50 percent discount from peak prices) and would reap financial gains after waiting for another five years to pass, seeing their investment double in value. The Aboluo article argued that those investment gains should belong to the general public, not to the government — by following Huang’s plan, the government would not be “expanding the pie” of the housing market, but would rather be cutting the pie in half and taking half for itself.

Source: Aboluo, January 8, 2024
https://www.aboluowang.com/2024/0108/2001131.html#google_vignette

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics