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CBN: 2022 Natural Population Growth Rate was Negative in Twenty Chinese Provinces

Recent data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics shows a decrease in the country’s birth rate and an increase in provinces experiencing negative natural population growth in 2022.

China Business Network (CBN) reported on the new data, which included statistics on the country’s birth rate, death rate and natural population growth rate in 31 provinces. China recorded 9.56 million births in 2022, a decrease of 1.06 million compared with 2021. The birth rate was 6.77 per thousand (6.77‰), a decrease of 0.75 per thousand from 2021. In 2022, the birth rate in nine provinces exceeded eight per thousand (8‰). In 20 provinces, the natural population growth rate was negative. That’s seven provinces more than in the previous year.

According to the official data, Guangdong has been the largest province in terms of births for five consecutive years. Guangdong Province had a birth population of 1.052 million in 2022, making it the only province in China that had an annual birth population exceeding 1 million in each of the years 2020, 2021, and 2022.

Meanwhile, Henan Province, which currently has the largest registered population of any province in China, had a natural growth rate of -0.08‰ last year. This was the first time since 1961 that the Henan’s natural population growth rate has been negative. Data released by the Henan Provincial Bureau of Statistics showed that the number of births in the province decreased by 60,000 compared with 2021.

China’s rate of first-child births has dropped by 51.3 percent over the past six years. In 2022, the number of first-child births in China was 4.41 million, the number of second-child births was 3.72 million, and the number of third-or-later child births was 1.43 million.

Source: CBN, November 20, 2023
https://m.yicai.com/news/101908004.html

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

RFA: China’s Use of Foreign Capital Continues to Fall

Radio Free Asia (RFA) reported that China’s Ministry of Commerce  has released data on foreign direct investment (FDI) in China. Nationwide FDI was RMB 987.01 billion for the first ten months of this year, a year-over-year decrease of 9.4 percent. The decline expanded from the 8.4 percent over the previous nine months, and was the fifth consecutive month of continuous decline.

Foreign investors are pulling more money out of China than they put in. This is happening through repatriation of profits, repayment of intra-company loans, and the sale of assets. The trend reflects that foreign businesses are disillusioned with China’s economic prospects and policy climate.

Some analysts expressed the belief that Xi Jinping’s national security policy has caused a large-scale flight of foreign capital, and that the situation will be difficult to change in the short term. With national security remaining Beijing’s top priority, the downward trend in foreign investment will likely not change any time soon, even if the Chinese government were to launches a gesture promoting foreign investment. China currently faces many economic challenges in many areas, including taxation, technological upgrades, rapid withdrawal of foreign investment, a surge in unemployment, stagnant growth, and decline in international cooperation. These are all dangerous signals regarding the Chinese economy.

China’s high-tech, medical equipment and high-end instrument industries are not doing too poorly in terms of foreign direct investment. Investment into the service industry, however, has taken a big hit, declining by 15.9 percent. The service industry is responsible for more of the country’s employment and accounts for a greater share of GDP than China’s manufacturing sector.

Just a short while ago, China announced that third-quarter foreign investment (in U.S. dollars) was negative for the first time, with a deficit of US$11.8 billion. Meanwhile, the most recent announcement by China’s Ministry of Commerce reported a positive number for foreign direct investment, denominated in RMB. Although calculation using RMB resulted in a positive number, actual U.S.-dollar-denominated foreign direct investment has been negative. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has not released FDI data measured in U.S. dollars since August this year.

Source: RFA, November 20, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/hx1-11202023101220.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Pro-CCP Crowd Attacked Anti-CCP Protesters During Xi Jinping’s Visit to San Francisco

Chinese Embassies and Consulates in the United States organized many Chinese associations and student associations to welcome Xi Jinping when he attended the APEC meeting and the Biden-Xi Summit in San Francisco from November 15 to 17. These pro-Chinese Communist Party (CCP) people outnumbered the anti-CCP protesters by several times. Over a dozen incidents were reported where pro-CCP people attacked anti-CCP protesters and injured them.

A representative of the Chinese Democratic Party, which opposes the CCP and is banned in mainland China, said that 24 of the group’s members were assaulted by individuals associated with pro-CCP overseas groups, resulting in several injuries. The China Democracy and Human Rights Alliance, as well as the Democracy Front, reported that several of their protesters were also assaulted.

Protester Jia Junwei told Voice of America that “They chased me continuously. After surrounding me with the Chinese flag, a woman in her forties or fifties knocked me down. Then, they kicked my head, and used the flagpole to attack my head. Later, I was taken to the hospital.” Hong Kong protester Zhou Qihong, 74, was assaulted twice on November 15 and 17 in different locations by pro-Communist thugs. Topjor Tsultrim, a member of the Free Tibet organization, informed Voice of America, “At least 30 Tibetan protesters were beaten by pro-CCP groups. The attack at the airport protest site on November 17 was the most intense one against the Tibetan protesters. Three young Tibetan university students were attacked by over 20 Chinese individuals with metal rods, resulting in head injuries and broken bones. Eventually, they had to be taken to the hospital. On the same day, several Tibetans were struck with flags, stabbed with iron rods, and women’s hair was pulled. One of our activists was recording everything when her phone was snatched from her and thrown into the river.”

The San Francisco police didn’t arrest any pro-CCP persons. They did arrested protester Jie Lijian, however.

Jie was released from the San Francisco County Jail without bail on November 20. He told Voice of America, “We were peacefully protesting, and people from Chinese overseas groups attacked my back and head with flagpoles and steel pipes. I began vomiting and needed to use the restroom. In the process of finding a restroom, I was isolated and arrested by the police in an alley.” Jie also said, “If I didn’t defend myself in a situation where my head was being attacked with steel pipes, I wouldn’t be here speaking with everyone. I might have been beaten to death by the other party.”

Many human rights activists believe these attacks should not be allowed to happen in the U.S. They show the CCP’s long-armed influence on U.S. soil. Chinese human rights groups and pro-democracy activists have kept tally of beatings and injuries by the pro-CCP groups; they are planning to provide evidence criminal conduct to the FBI and Congress.

Source: Voice of America, November 22, 2023
https://www.voachinese.com/a/congress-urged-to-probe-attacks-on-chinese-dissidents-in-xi-jinping-protest-20231121/7364581.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Government/Politics US-China Relations

CCP’s United Front Minister Meets Future Elite Thai Leaders Trained by China

On November 23rd, a high-level Chinese Communist Party (CCP) official met with representatives of the “Thailand-China New Era Leadership Elite Training Program” in Beijing. The official, Shi Taifeng, is a CCP Politburo member and Minister of the CCP’s United Front Work Department. Shi promoted China’s ideology of the “China-Thailand Community for a Shared Future for Mankind” and the CCP’s “Belt and Road Initiative.” On the same day, Wan Lijun, Chairman of the CCP’s Overseas Chinese Affairs Office, also met with the visiting Thai delegation. Sahathai Maneechot, former Deputy Prime Minister of Thailand, expressed intention to strengthen close ties with the CCP’s Overseas Chinese Affairs Office and to collaborate on the CCP’s “Community of Shared Future for Mankind.”

The “Thailand-China New Era Leadership Training Program” started as early as 2018, initiated by the Chinese Association in Thailand. It is held several times a year, with high-ranking figures from Thailand’s political, military, business, and academic sectors participating.

At the annual summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China in September of this year, China’s Premier Li Qiang announced the “Ten Thousand People Training and Seminar Program,” in which China will train 10,000 talents for ASEAN countries in the fields of governance, anti-corruption, and green development.

Sources:
1. Epoch Times, November 25, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/11/25/n14123929.htm
2. Chinascope, September 15, 2023

Li Qiang Announced China’s Leadership Training Programs for ASEAN Countries

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

Unknown Virus Spreading in China

There is a virus spreading widely in China. Beijing said it is mycoplasma pneumonia, while some other commentators have suggested that it is likely something else. The Chinese Communist Party has a track record of withholding information about pandemics unfolding in China, including the 2002-2004 SARS outbreak and the 2019 COVID outbreak. The World Health Organization (WHO) has requested that China provide details about viruses currently circulating and any increased burden on Chinese hospitals.

China’s hospitals are currently full of patients, including children. The Pediatric Department at Beijing Tsinghua Chang Gung Hospital is used to receiving 300 cases daily, but numbers have now risen to 800. The Deputy Director of the pediatric department called it “the most significant pressure for the hospital’s pediatric department since its establishment.” Meanwhile, the internal medicine department of the Beijing Children’s Hospital has been receiving over 7,000 patients each day, and its infusion center is packed with children and their family members. Tianjin Children’s Hospital is receiving 13,000 patients each day, with some nurses feeling dizzy due to the overload of work. Shanghai’s Renji Hospital, affiliated with Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, reported that its pediatric outpatient visits exceeded 8,000 people between November 1 and November 13, a 175% increase from the same period last year.

Source: Epoch Times, November 23, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/11/23/n14122818.htm

Source: Nature, November 27, 2023
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03732-w

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

Cell Phone Production Shifts Overseas, China’s Cell Phone Exports Down by Over 5 Million Since 2015 Peak

China is the world’s largest manufacturer and exporter of cell phones, but exports have declined steadily from a 2015 peak of 1.343 billion units to 822 million units in 2022 – a drop of 521 million units over 7 years. Chinese media have conceded that “cell phone exports may never reach that peak again.”

According to China’s General Administration of Customs, October 2023 cell phone exports were 81.11 million units, up 10% year-over-year, but total 2023 exports in the first 10 months were down 6.4% to 642 million units. The continued export decline is largely due to falling global cell phone demand – Counterpoint research shows global smartphone shipments dropped from a 2017 peak of 1.55 billion units to 1.2 billion units in 2022 as consumers slow their upgrade cycle.

Another factor driving the decline is major brands like Samsung and Apple moving production out of China after 2014. Samsung has moved much of its production to Vietnam, Apple to other locales. This coincided with Chinese electronics manufacturing companies Xiaomi, Vivo and Oppo actively expanding overseas production bases since 2015 – notably in India and Indonesia, which have become major alternative sites. Vivo and Oppo now operate major factories in India with 60-72 million unit capacities.

Reasons for shift away from cell production in China include the rising cost of Chinese labor as well as import restrictions and tariffs by countries like India and Indonesia creating incentives for localized production in those countries.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 19, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202311190142.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China’s Rate of First-Time Marriages Drop Nearly 10% in 2022, Reaching Lowest Level in Years

According to China’s 2023 Statistical Yearbook, the number of first marriages in China in 2022 was 10.51 million, a 9.16% drop compared to 2021. This is the first time in years that first marriages have fallen below 11 million. The peak was in 2013 with 23.85 million first marriages; the number has dropped 55.9% over 9 years.

Dong Yuzheng, a demographic researcher affiliated with Guangdong provincial government, analyzed several factors contributing to this decline. These include:

  • The number of young people of marriageable age is decreasing.
  • As the population ages, willingness to marry is weakening among some groups.
  • The number of people not getting married is gradually rising.
  • Some marriages were postponed from late 2022 to 2023 due to the epidemic, impacting last year’s numbers.

Reasons why young people today are less likely to want marriage include: (1) changing perception of the stability of marriage, (2) changing views around obligation to get married / have children, and (3) rising costs of married life.

The decline in first marriages will lead to lower fertility rates. According to Yi Fuxian, an expert on China’s population and a senior researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, China’s demographic structure means that China’s economy will likely never surpass that of the U.S. He called on Beijing to face up to China’s declining population and civilization.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 20, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202311200149.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China and Saudi Arabia Sign Currency Swap Deal

According to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the central banks of China and Saudi Arabia have signed a 3-year bilateral local currency swap agreement with a size of 50 billion Chinese yuan / 26 billion Saudi riyals on November 20. The agreement can be extended beyond 3 years by mutual consent. The goals of the agreement are to strengthen financial cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia, promote use of local currencies for trade and investment between the countries, and facilitate bilateral trade and investment flows.

The swap agreement was approved by China’s State Council and establishes a framework for the two central banks to provide liquidity in each other’s currency if needed to support trade and financial stability.

Source: Sputnik News, November 20, 2023
https://sputniknews.cn/20231120/1055123725.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend