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Boston University: How Much African Debt Did China Forgive?

On August 19, 2022, China announced it would waive 23 interest-free loans (IFLs) for 17 African countries. The loans  had been due by the end of 2021 . Beijing didn’t specify the details. The Global Development Policy Center of Boston University estimated that each of the forgiven debts might be between $45 million and $610 million, with a possible total of $2.2 billionl, or around 1 percent of the $159.98 billion that China committed to lend to African countries from 2000 to 2020.

The research also pointed out that,  from 2005-2022, Beijing did ten debt cancellations for African countries including the most recently announced one. IFL provisions and cancelations are important diplomatic and symbolic tools in China’s lending practices and are likely to continue to be in the future.

Source: Boston University, September 9, 2022

China’s Interest-Free Loans to Africa: Uses and Cancellations

 

 

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

China Continues Lockdown and COVID Control against Its Citizens Even During and After Earthquake

On September 5, a 6.8 magnitude earthquake struck Sichuan Province in southwestern China. Nevertheless, and despite the imminent danger, local officials continued the strict COVID control measures and locked residents inside their apartment buildings.

The quake took place in Luding County and caused landslides involving both rocks and boulders. According to state media reports on September 8, the death toll so far has risen to 86.

China’s state media reported several aftershocks in nearby areas. The US Geological Survey also detected a smaller magnitude 4.6 tremor which hit eastern Tibet less than an hour after the initial quake.

Online videos showed that, despite the quake, local authorities stayed firm on the Communist Party’s COVID control measures.

One video showed that residents rushed downstairs in their apartment buildings, but only found the gate was locked and they could not get it to open.

Another one showed that a staff member guarding the gate argued with the people who wanted to get out, “Let me ask you, did the building collapse?” (meaning: if the building did not collapse, residents should just stay in it.)

A picture showed a notice posted for the residents: “Hello Everyone! An earthquake just took place. Please do not be panic. Please wear your mask and go upstairs back to your home. During the COVID control period, (you) should not go downstairs, take a walk, or gather into groups. Outdoor activities are prohibited. Thank you!”

When volunteers arrived on site to help with rescues, the first thing authorities did was to give them a COVID test.

Source: Epoch Times, September 5, 2022
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/9/5/n13817657.htm

 

Briefings | | |   @CS Government/Politics Social Stability

For The First Time, Taiwan Shot Down China’s Drone

On September 1, for the first time, Taiwan’s military force shot down a civilian drone from China after sending a warnings to China not to invade its air space.

China views Taiwan as a rebel-occupied island and claims it is a part of China’s own territory. China has escalated tension in the Taiwan Strait for several months. Recently, a few dozen airplanes flew into Taiwan’s air space on a daily basis. After U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island  China has fired missiles in the area surrounding Taiwan.

China also sent civilian drones to the Taiwan-controlled islands that are closer to the mainland. On the Internet, China even displayed the image of Taiwanese soldiers.’Their faces were taken by the drone at a short distance.

Tsai Ing-wen, President of Taiwan, gave the order on Tuesday to the Ministry of National Defense to take necessary and strong countermeasures in a timely manner to defend national security. Tsai said that, though Taiwan would not provoke disputes. that did not mean that it would not take proper actions.

On the same day, shortly after President Tsai’s order, Taiwan fired warning shots at China’s drones for the first time in Kinmen, a Taiwan-controlled island opposite to China’s Xiamen City. The Chinese drones flew away.

On Thursday, troops on the islet warned another Chinese drone but to no effect. Then they shot down the drone, with its remains falling to the sea.

Source: U.S. News and World Report, September 1, 2022
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-09-01/taiwan-shoots-down-unidentified-drone-in-kinmen

Briefings | | |   @CS Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

Discrepancy in China-Europe Railway Express Statistics Shows Heavy Shipping from China to Russia

Epoch Times found that the shipping data of the China-Europe Railway Express revealed that China has increased its shipping on the railways, mainly to Russia, but not to other European counties.

Xinhua News reported that, by August 21, in China 10,000 trains had departed on the China-Europe Railway Express, the railway connecting China to Europe through Russia. It took China ten more days last year to reach this target. China shipped out 972,000 standard containers this year, a 5 percent increase over last year.

However, Deutsche Welle reported on July 20 that European countries (excluding Russia and Ukraine) only received 25 percent of the shipping capacity this year as compared to last year’s level, quoting the supply change report from the internally renowned accounting firm Price Waterhouse Coopers. The report said that there were 15,000 trains with 1.5 million standard containers on this railway last year, averaging 27,500 containers per week. However, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,  out of the concern for sanctions and merchandise being confiscated, European countries have stopped shipping from Russia over this train line, though is still in operation.

The China-Europe Railway Express has two routes. The northern route goes through Russia. The southern route goes through Kazakhstan and then to Russia. European countries used the first part of the southern route and then after arriving in Kazakhstan, they transit goods through Asabaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, or to the Caspian Sea via Baku, Azerbaijan. The new router can only ship 6,000 containers per week, less than 25 percent of last year’s capacity on the China-Europe Railway Express.

Economist Davy Jun Huang explained that the discrepancy in shipping data is between the starting point and the receiving point. Beijing has an increase in shipping but Europe (excluded Russia and Ukraine) receives less than 25 percent of the shipping capacity, meaning the majority of shipping ends in Russia.

Xinhua News also reported the returning shipping is about 88 percent of the departing shipping, indicating Russia might have exported a large quantity of agricultural products to China. That ratio was 50.6 percent in 2016.

Source: Epoch Times, August 22, 2022
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/8/22/n13807912.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Russian Formal Military Chief of Staff Praised DJI Drones as a “Real Revolution” in Artillery War

The Russian Embassy placed a post on Weibo of the quotes from a new book by former Russian Military Chief of Staff General Yuri Baluyevsky. The Russian general praised Dajiang’s (DJI’s) drones and said that they have brought a real revolution to the usage of traditional artillery, completely solving the issues of detecting the target, directing the aim, and correcting fire. Their accuracy and efficiency are comparable to those of precision-guided missiles.

The general said DJI’s “Mavic quadcopter has become a true symbol of modern warfare.”

The posting was based on the Russian media Sputnik.

DJI immediately responded that its products are for civilian usage. Later, the Russian Embassy removed this posting.

Source: Net Ease, August 15, 2022
https://c.m.163.com/news/a/HERL2TJF05159GSR.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend

China Published a New White Paper on Taiwan

On August 10, Beijing published its latest White Paper on Taiwan. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council and the State Council Information Office published the document titled, “The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era.”

The paper announced that, “Taiwan has never been a state; its status as part of China is unalterable.”

“The realization of complete national reunification is driven by the history and culture of the Chinese nation and determined by the momentum towards and circumstances surrounding our national rejuvenation. Never before have we been so close to, confident in, and capable of achieving the goal of national rejuvenation. The same is true when it comes to our goal of complete national reunification.”

It criticized Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party authorities for creating tension and external forces for “hav(ing) encouraged and instigated provocative actions by the separatist forces.”

“(W)e will not renounce the use of force,” the document stated, “and we reserve the option of taking all necessary measures. This is to guard against external interference and all separatist activities… The use of force would be the last resort taken under compelling circumstances.”

China published the Taiwan White Paper in both 1993 and 2000. Both earlier versions mentioned that, “(Beijing) will not dispatch soldiers or administrative staff to Taiwan” after the “re-unification.” The 2000 White Paper also stated, “As long as Taiwan recognizes there is only one China and does not seek independence, everything is negotiable.” These sentences were not seen in the new White Paper.

The Taiwan government disputed Beijing’s claim. The Taiwan Mainland Affairs Council said this White Paper was, “full of wishful-thinking, lies and reckless disregard of the truth.” “Only the 23 million people of Taiwan have the right to decide the future of Taiwan, and they will never accept the results set by an authoritarian regime.”

Sources:
1. China’s State Council Website, August 10, 2022
https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/202208/10/content_WS62f34f46c6d02e533532f0ac.html
2. Al Jazeera, August 10, 2022
https://chinese.aljazeera.net/news/political/2022/8/10/中国重申武统台湾立场

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

U.S. Veteran: How the Chinese Consulate Tries to Control the Voting in U.S. Elections

The U.S. will hold its mid-term elections on November 8. To prevent foreign governments from interfering in the U.S. elections, the State Department offered a $10 million reward for reporting such interfering activities.

Yan Xiong, a candidate running for the U.S. Congress in New York State’s 10th district, said the Chinese Consulate in New York ordered the Chinese diaspora not to vote for him. He told the Epoch Times on July 24, “The Chinese Consulate informed Chinese associations not to let their people vote for me. Many people called me or wrote to me to tell me about it.” There are many in the Chinese diaspora in the 10th district. Mr. Xiong feels his case is solid evidence that Beijing is interfering in the U.S. election.

Mr. Xiong is a Chinese-American human rights activist. He was a law student at Beijing University and a student leader in the Tiananmen democracy movement in 1989. He came to the U.S. in 1992 as a political refugee and served in the U.S. military for 27 years. He retired as a chaplain in the army.

Mr. Xiong told the Epoch Times newspaper about another instance of Beijing’s interference cases in March. He was planning the opening ceremony of his campaign office on March 19. The Chinese Consulate asked Chinese association leaders not to support him, to give him no donation and not to vote for him. The Chinese Consulate called people from Fujian Province and Guangdong Province in for a meeting on either March 17 or 18, giving them a choice: “Would you rather do business in China or support his campaign?” Those people then didn’t come to Mr. Xiong’s gathering. An immigrant from Fuzhou City, Fujian Province confirmed independently to the Epoch Times that the President of a Fuzhou Fellowship Association received a Chinese Consulate’s notice saying not to support Mr. Xiong.

The U.S. Department of Justice announced on March 16 that  five people were Chinese agents. Their actions included ruining Mr. Xiong’s election. Qiming Lin, a member of China’s State Security Department asked a private detective (who happened to be an FBI undercover agent) to defame Mr. Xiong, such as by digging into his past affairs looking for something to use against him  or tax evasion information or by setting him up with a woman, or directly beating him or creating a car accident.

An independent news commentator Ge Bidong shared a story about the Chinese Consulate’s interference on May 12, 2021. Ge and his friend running for a position visited Zhou. The President of the Shanghai Chinese Association was there. Zhou told them that the campaign in New York “cannot do without the Chinese Consulate” and the business associations and fellowship associations won’t let a person pass without the Chinese Consulate’s support for that candidate.

Mr. Ge and his candidate friend had previously been  imprisoned in China.

“The (Chinese) Consulate said that your things are an ‘internal conflicts’ but the Falun Gong issue is a ‘conflict with the enemy.’” Zhou told them, “As long as you are not Falun Gong, you will be fine.” Zhou also promised to take them to the Chinese Consulate and “all your things will be resolved.”

Source: Epoch Times, July 26, 2022
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/7/26/n13789113.htm.

Briefings | | |   @CS Government/Politics US-China Relations

Many Chinese Home Buyers Collectively Decide to Stop Paying Their Mortgage on an Unfinished Home

The Chinese real estate industry has faced several ripple effects after many developers struggled or defaulted on their debt payments. Not only do investors and banks face losses, but constructions of many buildings have also been halted for months if not years and home buyers were not sure when they will eventually receive their homes. For some buildings, the builders have no intention to complete the construction and will just leave them in the unfinished status forever; the Chinese call them the “rotten-tail buildings.”

Unlike the U.S. the home-selling practice where the home buyers sign a contract with the builder when the building is constructed and take out a mortgage when the home is delivered, Chinese buyers take out the mortgage at the time of signing the contract and start the payment right away, even though they don’t have the house.

This presents a big, unfair problems for the home buyers.  They are paying mortgages to banks while seeing no progress in the construction of their homes.

Getting no help on these unfinished buildings from the builders, the banks, and the government, many home buyers resolved to a new approach: collectively announcing they would stop their mortgage payment.

On June 30, all home buyers of an unfinished construction project in Jingdezhen City, Jiangxi Province announced jointly on social media that they would stop mortgage payments until the builder resumes construction. This started a wave of home buyers’ stopping their mortgage payments. By June 16, according to NTDTV’s report, home buyers of at least 270 project (a project may consist of multiple buildings) throughout China, including Jiangxi, Anhui, Henan, Hubei, and other provinces, have made similar announcements,

Technically, the unfinished building is a dispute between the home buyers and the real estate developers, not involving the bank. Banks can still hold the buyers accountable for their payments and have the option to freeze and auction buyers’ own personal properties and put them on a bad credit list, if they stop their payment. However, since home purchasing accounts for a significant portion of spending for many Chinese families, these home buyers feel that they have nothing more to lose.

Some home buyers have also found ways to accuse the banks. Some banks didn’t put their payment in proper escrow accounts, some banks released the funds to real estate developers though the construction didn’t reach the required funding stage, and some banks purposely created bad mortgage contracts to steal the home buyers’ money.

This stopping payment wave also spread to real estate developers’ suppliers and contractors. On July 15, an announcement circulated on the Internet that suppliers and contractors in Hubei Province supporting the Evergrande Group decided to stop providing funding and materials and stop doing work if they do not receive Evergrande’s payment up front.

Sources:
1. SINA, July 13, 2022
https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/cyxw/2022-07-13/doc-imizmscv1383585.shtml
2. Epoch Times, July 14, 2022
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/7/14/n13781035.htm
3. NTDTV, July 16, 2022
https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2in022/07/16/a103480739.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources