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The Economic Observer: Do Online Stores Drive Retailers Out of Business?

The Economic Observer, a weekly, Beijing-based national paper featuring economic developments, published a commentary on its website, discussing a government commission’s concern that online e-commerce stores have driven retail stores out of business.  The Central Economic Work Conference brgan December 18, 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), directly affiliated with the State Council, submitted a report to the central government. The NDRC report noted: "Despite some jobs have been created by online stores, courier delivery services, and associated new lines of business, one must not ignore the impact on physical retail store, which are being replaced." While people are cheering the record setting one-day sale of RMB 91 billion (around USD 14 billion) on November 11 at the Tmall online website, owned by Alibaba Group, retail outlets for books, clothes, and household appliance are hit the worst. There are even cases that retail stores are being closed en masse. Some traditional department stores have also lost their appeal. All negatively impacted employment outlook in these areas. While the commentary did not challenge the claim by Ma Yun (Jack Ma), chairman of the board of the Alibaba Group, that Alibaba’s online e-commerce platform has 8.5 million active vendors, which created directly 10 million employment positions, and indirectly 3.5 million more. Ma categorized this group as "online merchants," which include merchants with well-known brands, vendors specializing in channel marketing, logistics, and indirect participants doing outsourcing work in communications, design, and sales. However, the commentary focused on the retail sector, spanning urban communities as well as rural areas. It raised the question that those who have been displaced by e-commerce platform, such as Tmall, are not in the position to get into logicstics, or manufacturing, or name branding due to technology and intellectual property barriers. The commentary looks up to the government to offer assistance to people losing their retail jobs. Source: The Economic Observer website, December 21, 2015 http://www.eeo.com.cn/2015/1221/281974.shtml

Who Will the Chinese Yuan Depreciation Hit the Hardest?

Caijing.com published an article on the ramifications of the recent depreciation in the Chinese yuan. The article discussed six groups of people who may be the hardest hit. The first group includes those who invested in the housing market and will see their real estate shrink in value. The second group is those who study overseas and will see less of the foreign currency when they are exchanging the yuan. The third group is those who buy at overseas online stores. They will have to pay more. The fourth group includes those who travel overseas. They too will have to pay more. The fifth group is the Chinese companies that have borrowed large amounts of yuan in anticipation of its appreciation. The sixth group is the currency speculators who, in recent years, have bought and held the yuan. 

Source: Caijing.com reprinted by powerapple.com, December 15, 2015 
https://www.powerapple.com/news/chan-jing-ke-ji/2015/12/15/2536910.html

Chinese Steel Industry Reported Massive Losses

Economic Information Daily, a branch of Xinhua, recently reported, based on information that reliable sources from the China Iron and Steel Industry Association (CISA) provided, that large and mid-sized Chinese steel companies saw a month-over-month profit decline of 25 percent in October. From January to October, the loss in primary steel business totaled RMB 72 billion yuan (around US$11 billion). Around 47.5 percent of the steel companies reported losses. The total loss from January to September was only RMB 28 billion. Most of the publicly traded steel companies have already predicted a difficult next year. Analysts suggested that the primary causes of a landslide of the steel industry are major market declines seen in the housing, the railway, the car and the shipbuilding industries. Studies also showed that, by the year 2018, the Chinese steel industry will be able to produce 1.2 billion tons of steel. By then, China will be able to consume 0.7 billion tons while exporting 0.1 billion tons. Many industry experts called for a major industry-wide structural adjustment. 
Source: Economic Information Daily, December 4, 2015
http://dz.jjckb.cn/www/pages/webpage2009/html/2015-12/04/content_12977.htm

Caixin: Chinese Manufacturing PMI Remains Below 50

Well-known Chinese financial site Caixin recently released its official Chinese Manufacturing PMI index number for November, which was 48.6. Caixin PMI was formerly known as HSBC PMI, which was a well-respected economic indicator monitored globally by financial institutions. The Caixin PMI has been below 50 for nine consecutive months. According to Caixin Think Tank Chief Economist He Fan, the index saw a slight increase from last month, but the total new business sub-index under the Caixin Manufacturing PMI is still showing a continued decline. Further analysis demonstrated that a weak domestic demand was the primary cause of the shrinking new business number. In November, the employment level in manufacturing continued to decrease. Manufacturers are reducing their procurement activities as well. In the meantime, the National Bureau of Statistics released the government’s official Manufacturing PMI number: 49.6. This number is typically higher than its Caixin counterpart. PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is an indicator of financial activity reflecting purchasing managers’ acquisition of goods and services. A PMI number below 50 typically reflects a decline. 
Source: Caixin, December 1, 2015
http://pmi.caixin.com/2015-12-01/100880027.html

21 Percent of Listed State-Owned Enterprises Are in the Red

This year’s statistics show that, for the first three quarters of this year, 67 out of the 306 or just over 21 percent of listed state-owned enterprises (SOEs) were in the red. The top 10 of these SOEs showed losses totaling 13.524 billion yuan ($US2.11 billion). Some expect that, in order to reduce their losses in the fourth quarter, these SOEs may sell their assets or obtain government subsidies. 

The top loser for the first three quarters was Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation, with a loss of 2 billion yuan (US$.31 billion), followed by SGIS Songshan Co. Ltd. which was 1.783 billion yuan (US$.28 billion) in the red. 
As for the sectors of industry affected, nonferrous metal companies constituted one-third of the losers while coal mining companies accounted for about 20 percent of those in the red. 
Most listed SOEs receive government subsidies. If such subsidies were excluded from the net profit, 74 SOEs (or about 24 percent) would be in the red for the first three quarters this year instead of 67. 

Source: Beijing Youth Daily reprinted by People’s Daily, December 2, 2015 http://finance.people.com.cn/n/2015/1202/c1004-27879158.html

China News: Large Scale Industrial Enterprises Suffered Profit Decline in October

China News recently reported that, according to the numbers that the National Bureau of Statistics just released, the total profit of all large scale industrial enterprises suffered a year-over-year decline of 4.6 percent. The same decline that was reported for September was only 0.1 percent. Also for October (year-over-year), these enterprises reported a debt increase of 5.6 percent and an inventory level increase of 4.5 percent. For the period of January to October, key industrial sectors that suffered declines were coal mining (62.1 percent), oil and natural gas (68.6 percent), non-metallic mineral products (8.2 percent), ferrous metal smelting (68.3 percent), non-ferrous metal smelting (4.8 percent), special equipment manufacturing (3.4 percent), and automobile manufacturing (3.1 percent). During the period of January to October, among all large scale industrial enterprises, the state-owned category saw the largest decline in profits (25 percent), and only the foreign-investment-owned category and the domestic privately-owned category saw profit growth (0.3 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively). 
Source: China News, November 27, 2015
http://www.chinanews.com/cj/2015/11-27/7644264.shtml

Three Major Players in Market Bailout Now under Investigation

On Thursday, November 26, and Friday, November 27, three brokerage firms that were major players in this summer’s market bailout announced that the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) had placed them under investigation.

Beijing Youth Daily noted, in a report widely cited by other state media and web portals, that China’s A-share market booked the steepest single day drop in three months on Friday, with shares of many financial firms triggering their daily limit.

The three leading brokerages, Citic, Guosen, and Haitong, all rank among China’s top 10 securities firms. It was the national regulator CSRC that initiated this most recent round of investigations.

Earlier in August, local regulators initiated investigations into Haitong and three other major brokerage firms, GF, Huatai, and Founder, for allegedly failing to identify clients properly. Regulatory authorities are now officially probing a total of six top players of the so-called National Team, which consists of 21 brokerage firms the government relied on exclusively to bail out the financial market this summer.

Cheng Boming, Citic general manager, and Chen Hongqiao, president of Guosen, are reported to have had close ties with Zhang Yujun, the former CSCR assistant chairman.

Zhang coordinated the massive intervention during this summer’s market rout. On September 16, he became a target of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection for "severe violations of discipline." Cheng, along with a dozen or so of Citic’s top managers, was arrested a day earlier. On October 23, Chen, who served as Zhang’s deputy before joining state-owned Guosen Securities, hanged himself in his Shenzhen home.

Citic was also implicated in a case involving a star private equity fund manager, Xu Xiang, who was detained in early November on suspicion of insider trading.

Source: Beijing Youth Daily, November 29, 2015

http://news.ynet.com/3.1/1511/29/10572516.html

China’s GDP Growth for 2015 May Be 4.5 Percent

In a recent interview with China Times, Liu Wei, a member of Xi Jinping’s advisory group, President of the People’s University, and prominent economist, stated that the growth of China’s GDP may be 4.5 percent. 

China Times asked for Liu’s thoughts on the doubts that analysts expressed about the accuracy of the 6.9 percent rate of GDP growth allegedly achieved in the third quarter as China had officially announced. Analysts believed the aggregated 6.9 percent growth rate was not consistent with the statistics regarding repots on individual items and that China faces more problems in achieving a seven percent GDP growth rate for the year. 
Liu responded that there may be some inconsistencies. With a six percent growth in manufacturing, eight for the service industry, and three for agriculture, it seems to be hard to explain or substantiate the 6.9 percent GDP growth rate. “I understand the questioning. It may require us to scrutinize more carefully and to explore further the changes in the statistical methodologies and transparency."  
In response to the comments made by China Times in the interview that some analysts believe that the actual growth rate of China’s economy is only about 4.5 percent, Liu said, “That may be the real number. To be honest, even if it is 4.5 percent or 5 percent, do not be afraid. The key is whether the economy can actually endure it.” 
Source: China Times, November 25, 2015 
http://www.chinatimes.cc/article/51936.html