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Levin Zhu: China’s Real Personal Income Growth Has Dropped over the Past 10 Years

Levin Zhu, President and CEO of China International Capital Corporation, said on China Central Television’s (CCTV) morning financial program that, over the past 10 years, China’s economy has maintained steady growth, but the growth of the Chinese people’s real income has been declining. Personal savings account for only 10% of national savings. This is not conducive to stimulating a consumer-driven economy. Only by raising the people’s income level as quickly as possible, can consumption play the role of boosting the economy.

Levin Zhu is the son of former Premier Zhu Rongji. Last July, Fortune magazine named him one of "Asia’s 25 most Influential Business Leaders."

Source: Website of China Securities Journal, re-posted by www.sohu.com, July 25, 2013
http://business.sohu.com/20130725/n382540982.shtml

State Official: Economy Continues to Decelerate; Major Adjustment Probable

Dr. Li Zuojun, Deputy Director of the Resources and Environment Policy Institute at China’s State Council’s Development Research Center, predicted that, in the second half, the Chinese economy will continue to decelerate and that a major adjustment is possible. 

“At the beginning of the year, my take on the 2013 economic growth situation was that the economic growth rate might first increase and then decrease and that, while we might see an upward trend in the first half, in the second half of the year, the economy might experience some downward pressure. The reality is that, in the first quarter, GDP only grew 7.7 percent, lower than last year’s fourth quarter growth. Now it seems the second quarter may be even lower than the first quarter, possibly two percentage points lower. This year the economy will likely be on a continuous downward trend, unless relatively strong stimulus measures are taken to reverse this trend. Nevertheless, right now it appears that the central government’s policy is to tolerate some decline in economic growth in order to pursue efficient and cost-effective growth while preventing systemic regional financial risks. As there is a low probability of strong stimulus measures, [I] do not rule out a major economic adjustment in the third and four quarters.” 

Source: Caijing.com, July 23, 2013 
http://blog.caijing.com.cn/expert_article-151696-56649.shtml

China Review News: Don’t Break the Red Line of 1.8 Billion Mu of Arable Land in China

On July 21, 2013, China Review News published an article explaining why it is important to safeguard the 1.8 billion mu of arable land in China. As the urbanization in China is spreading fast, some urbanization supporters propose to break the red line of the 1.8 billion mu of arable land so as to further expand urban construction. The article explained that the 1.8 billion mu of arable land is the minimum bottom line to ensure food security in China.

Source: China Review News, July 21, 2013
http://www.zhgpl.com/doc/1026/4/0/4/102640403.html?coluid=53&kindid=0&docid=02640403&mdate=0721073613

IMF: China’s Total Public Debt Exceeds 50 Percent of Its GDP

On July 21, 2013, China Review News published an article titled “China’s Local Governments Owe Over US$12 Trillion in Debt; a Dangerous Sword Hangs over the Head of the Economy.” Since 2010, local governments’ debts have become the sword of Damocles hanging over China’s economy. According to China’s National Audit Office statistics, the amount of the debt that local governments owe exceeds US$12 trillion. However, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that China’s total public debt exceeds 50 percent of its GDP.

According to the article, China needs large scale financial reform as well as fiscal reform over the next 10 to 30 years.

Source: China Review News, July 21, 2013
http://www.zhgpl.com/doc/1026/4/0/5/102640566.html?coluid=45&kindid=0&docid=102640566&mdate=0721100348

Xinhua: China No Longer Limits Commercial Loan Interest Rates

Xinhua recently reported that the Chinese central bank announced it will no longer control the interest rates that banks set for commercial loans. The new policy takes effect starting July 20, 2013. The banks now have the full power to decide their interest rates. This is very different from the traditional method that the central bank required, which was to satisfy a floating minimum rate based on a formula. Rural area credit unions can now also enjoy the freedom of offering their own commercial loan interest rates without the central bank imposing an upper ceiling. However, in order to “protect the healthy development of this market sector,” the new policy does not apply to mortgage loans for the housing market. The central bank suggested that the new policy is to expand the room for negotiation between banks and their customers and to encourage differentiation among banks and bank products. One of the goals of the new policy is to lower the financing costs for companies in the real economy.
Source: Xinhua, July 19, 2013
http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2013-07/19/c_116614513.htm

Beijing Youth Daily: Business Entities’ Savings Grew While Personal Saving Declined

Xinhua carried an article that Beijing Youth Daily had originally published. The article said that People’s Bank published financial statistics showing that, by the end of June, the total national savings in China had reached 1.009 quadrillion yuan (US$160 trillion). This was the first time it broke the 1 quadrillion mark. In the first half of 2013, total savings grew 9,090 trillion (US$1,480 trillion), up 1,710 trillion (US$278 trillion) compared to 2012. Specifically, personal saving grew 4,139 trillion (US$674 trillion) and savings for the non-financial entities grew 2,320 trillion (US$378 trillion). The article disclosed that growth in government and business entities has propelled the growth in national savings; whereas personal savings, as a percentage of the national savings, has been declining over the past ten years. The article stated, “It is an indication that the public funding allocated to education and health areas are far less than desired thereby pushing the general public to find ways to come up with "preventive savings" themselves.

As to the reason for the growth in personal savings, the article pointed out that, first, people are reluctant to spend money because many still receive a low income; second, the government provides insufficient funding for the education, medical, and housing areas, which forces residents to have their own “preventive savings.”

The article called the imbalance of the saving ratio a key issue to be addressed in income distribution reform.

Source: Xinhua, July 21, 2013
http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2013-07/21/c_116622492.htm

Xinhua Commentary: Reported Housing Statistics Are Questionable

On July 19, China News Review published a report on the “2013 Development of People’s Livelihood in China.” The report claimed that close to 90 percent of Chinese families own their own housing space. The average size for housing is 100 square meters (1,076 square feet) per family or 30 square meters (323 square feet) per person. On July 20, Xinhua published a commentary calling the published results questionable and misleading because they used the average statistical method. The commentary stated that some families don’t own houses while some groups of people own multiple or even dozens of housing properties. It questioned whether the data was correct, why the housing leasing market would be so prosperous in the city, and why large numbers of families still live in “snail house” conditions. In the end, the commentary suggested that a different methodology should be applied in calculating the results so that it truly reflects reality.

Source: Xinhua July 20, 2013
http://news.xinhuanet.com/comments/2013-07/20/c_116613384.htm

Xinhua: GSK Is not Alone

On July 14, 2013, Xinhua published an article commenting on the Chinese bribery investigation into the British  pharmaceutical company, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), stating that GSK is just one of many foreign firms that have been involved in bribery in China. “In recent years, multinational companies have caused China to become one of the hardest hit in the commission of bribery.”

According to Xinhua, in December 2012, Eli Lilly settled for $30 million when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission charged it with bribing foreign government officials to expand its market in Russia, Brazil, China, and Poland. In August 2012, Pfizer paid $60 million in fines for offering bribes to government medical staff in eight countries including China. Toward the end of 2008, Siemens was fined $1.3 billion for its corrupt practices involving five Chinese government-owned hospitals. It had paid tens of millions of dollars in bribes to physicians and lab personnel, ultimately resulting in huge orders for medical equipment.

“From the 1990s to the present, well-known multinational companies, including Morgan Stanley, IBM, Lucent, Wal-Mart, Diagnostic Products Corporation, Avery Dennison, and many others have been charged with bribery in China.” 
Source: Xinhua, July 14, 2013 
http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2013-07/14/c_125005890.htm