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Geo-Strategic Trend - 161. page

Huanqiu: U.S. and Seoul Are Ready for Strike against North Korea

On December 31, 2016, as President Xi Jinping was meeting with President Obama at a nuclear security summit in Washington, DC, the China State media Huanqiu published a commentary by Lieutenant General Wang Hongguang, former Deputy Commander of the Nanjing Military Command, on the North Korean nuclear issue. 

According to Wang, the U.S., Seoul, and North Korea are implementing a "brinkmanship" policy, which has substantially increased the possibility of military confrontation. Once such a confrontation took place, it would probably not be an "accidental discharge" nor could any party control the situation.
Wang believed that the U.S. and South Korea have long been planning a military strike against North Korea and that the motivation for such a strike may now be ripe. 
Wang expressed that the military strike against North Korea would be likely to consist of four stages: first, a small scale attack on North Korea’s satellite launch site and the destruction of their nuclear technology; second, a small and medium scale attack on North Korean nuclear facilities and warehouses at the risk of nuclear contamination; third, a large scale attack on hundreds of military targets already identified, which would paralyze North Korea’s ability to initiate any of its own attacks and to fight back; fourth, a large scale attack to overthrow the North Korean regime by force. 
[Editor’s Note: Analysts noted the timing of Wang’s commentary was during Xi’s visit to the U.S. on nuclear issues.  Some also observed that the North Korean regime has been under the wing of former President Jiang Zemin’s faction. According to sources in the Chinese nuclear industry, North Korea’s nuclear scientists and technicians were trained in China, which also provided North Korea the most cutting-edge nuclear technology.] 
Sources: Huanqiu, March 31, 2016 
http://opinion.huanqiu.com/1152/2016-03/8793171.html?qq-pf-to=pcqq.c2c

Xinhua: Japan’s New Security Law Will Soon Be Implemented

Xinhua recently reported that the Japanese Cabinet decided to implement its new security law starting on March 29. The new law allows for Japan’s collective self-defense, which all generations of the Japanese government had banned since the end of the Second World War. The new law also allows the Japanese military to deploy globally for certain missions. Last year, the ruling coalition forcefully passed the new law, ignoring the Japanese people’s strong opposition. The new law is considered a major milestone which represents a significant military policy change from “peaceful self-defense” to active global participation in military activities. According to the new law, as long as the United States, as a treaty-binding ally, makes the request, Japan can legally send troops overseas to offer help to the U.S. The right of collective self-defense was widely thought to be against the Japanese Constitution, since it allows the use of military power without Japan being attacked directly. 
Source: Xinhua, March 22, 2016
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2016-03/22/c_1118404253.htm

China Times: Mainland Media Commented on New Relationship after Taiwan’s Presidential Election

The major Taiwanese newspaper China Times recently reported on a number of comments that Mainland media made after the recent election. The just completed Taiwanese presidential election put the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) back in power with control of both the Executive branch and the Congress. Mainland media suggested that, before the official interactions between the authorities on the two sides occur, the governments may, once again, need to test each other’s bottom lines. During this process, non-governmental exchanges could play an important role. There have been a lot of misunderstandings among the people on both sides of the Strait. Some Mainland media leaders expressed the belief that young people who have either study or work experiences in the Mainland typically have a better understanding of the Mainland; they should tell the truth to the Taiwanese people to prevent the expansion of their misunderstanding gap.
Source: China Times, March 22, 2016
http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20160322006318-260409

People’s Daily: Japan’s New Radar in Yonaguni Poses a Threat to China

According to a report from U.S. Defense News, Japan is expanding its network to monitor the waters around the Diaoyu Islands. On March 28, it is expected to start using a new radar station on Yonaguni island.  

Military expert Yin Zhuo, in an interview with CCTV, said that Yonaguni island would then become Japan’s intelligence center in the East China Sea. Once this batch of equipment and radar is set up on the island, it will target Taiwan and the Diaoyu Islands. It will be able to provide information to the U.S. military stationed in Okinawa and to the Japanese Self-Defense Forces. Moreover, the scope of the radar surveillance will cover China’s southeast coast of Zhejiang, Fujianand Jiangsu. It will also be able to detect our aircraft and ships going in and coming out of the first island chain. The radar can be networked with the SDF radar to guide aircraft to the Diaoyu Islands to fight in wartime. It can also provide intelligence support for the U.S. intervention on the Taiwan Strait issue. As such, it would provide some kind of threat to our country. 
Yin Zhuo said that Japan’s strengthening of its defense of the southwestern islands is an important measure taken to implement the new security and defense law, which is favorable to Japan-U.S. joint operations. Once Japan strengthens its monitoring capabilities in the southwestern islands, then when confict arises in Diaoyu islands, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces will act alone even if the U.S. military does not participate. The three-stage operation against the Diaoyu Islands is what Japan planned a long time ago. It has formed a battle plan. 
Source: People’s Daily, March 22, 2016 
http://military.people.com.cn/n1/2016/0322/c1011-28215801.html

People’s Daily: Japan Miscalculated in the East China Sea Situation

People’s Daily recently reported that Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party has been making a lot of noise about using international arbitration to call for settling the conflicts with China in the East China Sea. Last year, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also accused China of breaking its agreement with Japan on “joint development” of natural resources. The People’s Daily article countered that Japan is doing the wrong math on three fronts. The first is by supporting the Philippines, who went through international arbitration. Japan wishes to tie the East China Sea issue to the South China Sea issue. The second is the attempt to distract the Japanese voters from Japan’s failing economic policies in order to gain more seats in the July Japanese Senate election. The third is to snatch Chinese sovereignty in the East China Sea. However, in creating new trouble, Japan will not benefit from the international laws, or fool the Japanese voters, or earn a good relationship with neighbors.  
Source: People’s Daily, March 19, 2016
http://opinion.people.com.cn/n1/2016/0319/c1003-28210788.html

Tsai Ing-wen: Taiwan Expects to Sign FTA with Japan

The major Taiwanese newspaper China Times recently reported that Taiwanese President-Elect Tsai Ing-wen expressed her hope that she would be able to start a negotiation of the Taiwan-Japan Free Trade Agreement (FTA). She commented that Taiwan is determined to get this task done. Tsai made this comment when meeting with Mikio Sasaki, Council Chairman of the Interchange Association Japan (IAJ), which acts as the non-official Japanese Embassy in Taiwan. Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has long maintained a close and interactive relationship with Japan. Tsai suggested that Japan can actively participate in her “Five Major Innovation Industries Initiative,” which includes green energy, precision machinery, biotechnology, Internet of Things (IoT) and the defense industry. She also said that Japan can work jointly with Taiwan to develop the Indian and Southeast Asian markets. Mikio Sasaki expressed his agreement on strengthening the relationship between Japan and Taiwan. He thought that Taiwan and Japan are highly complementary in industrial development.
Source: China Times, March 8, 2016
http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20160308006494-260407

VOA: Survey Showed that Fewer Japanese People Feel Close to China

Voice of America published an article which stated that fewer Japanese citizens feel close to China. Japan’s Cabinet authorized the survey. In January, 3,000 people were interviewed and 60 percent of them responded. Of those, 83.2 percent felt that they did not feel close to China. The number is up by 0.1 percent from 2015. It is the highest number since the survey was first conducted. Meanwhile the number of people who feel close to China remains at 14.8 percent, the same as in 2015. The results also showed that 9.5 percent of the people feel that the relationship between China and Japan is relatively good, while 85.7 percent feel the opposite. According to the article, Japan’s Kyodo News felt that the reason that Japanese citizens’ negative feelings toward China have not improved could be related to their concerns over China’s activities in the South China Sea. In addition, it is also an indication that the efforts that Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzō Abe put forth since 2014 in his contacts with China’s President Xi Jinping have not seemed to gain recognition from his people back home.

Source: Voice of America, March 12, 2016
http://www.voachinese.com/content/japan-china-20160312/3233063.html

Xinhua: Why Does Japan Want to Keep Holding onto Large Amounts of Nuclear Materials?

Xinhua collected a series of articles questioning Japan’s nuclear ambitions. In the introductory paragraph, the article commented, “Japan is a signatory state of ‘the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.’ It claims to adhere to the ‘Three Non-Nuclear Principles.’ These are, ‘not possessing, not manufacturing, and not importing nuclear weapons.’ However, for a long time, it has stored large amounts of sensitive nuclear materials, a serious nuclear safety and nuclear proliferation risk. Right now, Japan has more than 1200 kilograms of highly enriched uranium and about 47.8 tons of separated plutonium, which is enough to produce over a thousand nuclear warheads. Experts have pointed out that Japan’s current storage of sensitive nuclear materials is far beyond what it actually needs. What on earth is Japan planning to do by holding onto so much sensitive nuclear material?” Below are the titles of the articles in the series: 

U.S. Experts Criticize Japan for Holding an Excessive Amount of Plutonium, Causing Worries about the Proliferation of Nuclear Materials
 
Chinese Foreign Ministry: Hope Japan Will resolve International Concerns about Excess Storage of Nuclear Material 
Japan Stores Large Quantities of Sensitive Nuclear Materials; it May Bring Three Risks [of nuclear safety, nuclear proliferation, and nuclear terrorism] 
What Does Japan Want to Do by Holding onto American nuclear materials? 
How long does Japan want to “Deceive (use the logic of an ostrich)” on Nuclear Issues? 
Abe Deliberately Avoids Mentioning the "Three Non-nuclear Principles," Reminding the World [of Japan’s real nuclear risk] 
Japan Never Gave up its Nuclear Ambitions, a Potential Nuclear Power outside the “Nuclear Threshold” 

Source: Xinhua, March 9, 2016 
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2016-03/09/c_128783163.htm