Skip to content

Geo-Strategic Trend - 20. page

CNA: The U.S. Became South Korea’s Largest Export Market

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that, in December 2023, South Korea’s exports to the United States exceeded its exports to China for the first time in 20 years.

Amid tensions over global economic security and technology supply chains, this is an important sign of changes in international relations. According to South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, South Korea’s December 2023 exports to the U.S. and to China were US$11.3 billion and US$10.9 billion, respectively. South Korea’s overall export volume increased at an annual rate of 5.1 percent. South Korea’s overall import value fell by 10.8 percent compared with the same period last year, and the trade surplus expanded to US$4.5 billion.

Although single-month data is not enough to prove that there has been a long-term shift in trading patterns, this change can still be taken as a reflection of the economic challenges facing China. In the meantime, the United States has been trying to win support from its allies to reduce global supply chain dependence on China and to limit Beijing’s access to advanced semiconductor technology. South Korea has forged closer ties with the United States under President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Source: CNA, January 1, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202401013004.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Xinhua: North Korea Claims South Korea Misjudged its Military Activity

Xinhua reported that Kim Yo Jong of North Korea has claimed that South Korea misjudged North Korea’s military movements. The following is a translation of the report.

According to the report from the Korean Central News Agency (North Korean media), Kim Yo Jong, Vice Chairman of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, made a statement on January 7, pointing out that South Korea has made a misjudgment and speculative assumptions about the movements of the North Korean military.

The report stated that South Korea claimed that North Korea fired shells northwest of Yonpyeong Island on the afternoon of January 6, and that the shells fell in the western sea area north of the “Northern Limit Line.” Kim Yo Jong of North Korean responded to this claim in the statement, saying that the North Korean military had in fact detonated explosives simulating the sound of coastal artillery. North Korea’s purpose was to observe South Korea’s reaction.

Kim Yo Jong said that South Korea mistook the explosive sound for artillery fire, took the sounds as provocative shelling, and falsely claimed that the impact point was in the sea buffer zone north of the “Northern Limit Line” in the western sea area.

Kim Yo Jong also warned that even if South Korea makes a small provocation, the North Korean military will immediately respond with “shelling.”

According to another report by Yonhap News Agency (South Korean media) on January 7, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff dismissed Kim Yo Jong’s remarks as just “low-level psychological warfare” denigrating the detection capabilities of the South Korean military. He stated that if North Korea provokes South Korean territory and national security, the South Korean military will respond resolutely and decisively based on the principles of “immediate, strong, and thorough countermeasures.”

There have been persistent disagreements between the two Koreas over the demarcation of the western sea area of the Korean Peninsula. South Korea has delineated a maritime boundary called the “Northern Limit Line” between the “West Sea Five Islands,” including Yonpyeong Island, and the western coast of North Korea, which North Korea does not recognize.

Source: Xinhua, January 7, 2024
http://www.news.cn/world/20240107/8c243d2644a54e719a9956b811cdcfb4/c.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

Guangming Daily: China and Latin America’s Activities in 2023

Guangming Daily, a major mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP), reviewed the development in the relationships between China and Latin American countries in 2023:

In 2023 there were many high-level exchanges between China and Latin American countries. Leaders from ten countries paid visits to China: Brazil, Honduras, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, Barbados, Suriname, Cuba, and Uruguay. President Xi Jinping met with the Presidents of Mexico and Peru in San Francisco, USA. China established diplomatic relations with Honduras, elevated bilateral relations with Venezuela to the status of “all-weather strategic partnership,” with Colombia and Nicaragua to “strategic partnerships,” and with Uruguay to “comprehensive strategic partnership.” China also deepened its cooperation with Cuba under the banner of “building a shared destiny.”

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held exchanges with Latin-American political parties. [Representatives of] many Latin-American political parties attended the high-level dialogue between the CCP and the world’s political parties in March, 2023; China and Cuba held their fifth communist theory conference in Beijing in April; and China held the third China-Latin America Poverty Reduction and Development Forum in July.

From January to October 2023, trade between China and Latin America reached 2.835 trillion yuan (US$ 390 billion), a 6 percent increase from the same period during the previous year. Chinese companies actively invested in Latin America, particularly in the fields of new energy and the digital economy. On May 11, China and Ecuador signed a free trade agreement. From May 30 to June 2, China and Peru held their fifth round of negotiations for the upgrade of the China-Peru Free Trade Agreement. On July 4, China and Honduras launched negotiations for a free trade agreement. On August 31, China signed a free trade agreement with Nicaragua, making Nicaragua China’s fifth free trade partner in the Latin American region. In addition, China initiated free trade agreement negotiations with El Salvador last year, and negotiations with Uruguay are also underway.

Honduras joined the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2023; it is the 22nd Latin American country in the BRI circle. Countries like Cuba, Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay signed specific cooperation plans with China. Latin American nations actively participated in the third BRI Cooperation Summit Forum, with the President of Chile attending the forum three times consecutively. By September 2023, China implemented over 200 infrastructure projects in Latin America, including roads, railways, light rails, schools, hospitals, sports venues, bridges, tunnels, airports, ports, and power facilities.

China and Latin American countries, all being developing nations, collaborated extensively in addressing international issues, global challenges, and promoting the reform of the global governance system. Close coordination between China and Brazil supported Argentina in joining the BRICS family (Editor’s Note: this article was written before Argentina officially announced that it would not join BRICS). Latin American countries actively supported the “Three Major Global Initiatives” (Editor’s Note: this refers to Xi Jinping’s Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative), with several countries joining the “Friends of the Global Development Initiative” group. China and Latin American countries actively consulted and reached broad consensus in addressing hot issues such as the Ukraine crisis and the Israel-Palestine conflict. China supported Brazil’s bid for the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2025, and advocated for the establishment of a “Climate Compensation Fund” for vulnerable economies in Latin America.

Source: Guangming Daily, December 26, 2023
https://news.gmw.cn/2023-12/26/content_37051988.htm

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

Xinhua Commentary: The Closer South Korea Is to NATO, The Further it is from Being Safe

Xinhua published a commentary on South Korea’s growing closer to the NATO alliance. It blamed NATO for “causing division and chaos” in the world. The follow are excerpts from the commentary:

In recent years, NATO has extended its reach into the Asia-Pacific, using tactics such as drumming up security anxiety to attract countries like South Korea and Japan, steadily increasing its power projection in the region.

Regarding the U.S.-led “shift of NATO into the Asia-Pacific,” the South Korean government appears to be compliant. NATO’s global disruptions, originating from the Cold War, are well-known. As a Cold War relic, NATO still adheres to zero-sum and confrontational thinking, constantly seeking geographical and operational expansion under U.S. leadership, repeatedly provoking martial conflicts.

Since the end of the Cold War, wherever NATO extends its influence, it causes division and chaos: bombing the Southern Alliance, launching the Afghanistan War in the name of “counterterrorism,” invading Iraq, bombing Libya, escalating the Ukraine crisis — all these have resulted in severe disasters for local populations.

As the world’s largest military organization, NATO fundamentally serves as a tool for U.S. hegemony. NATO’s aggressive expansion into the Asia-Pacific seeks to replicate its strategies of provocation and confrontation from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region, posing numerous harms without bringing any benefits. The South Korean government should recognize that continuously strengthening cooperation with NATO is akin to “inviting the wolf into the house.” NATO’s eastward expansion in the Asia-Pacific will only stir regional tensions, triggering confrontations or even a “new Cold War” or “new hot war.” This expansion goes against current trends, it reverses the course of history, and it is not in the interest of the people.

Source: Xinhua, January 3, 2024
http://www.news.cn/world/20240103/b2c6fe7f947542268f4d3d1d89a91f64/c.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

Beijing Postpones China-Japan-South Korea Summit so it can Focus on Taiwan’s Presidential Election

According to diplomatic sources cited by South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo, China has proposed postponing the upcoming China-Japan-South Korea Summit (previously scheduled for March 2024) as Beijing wants to prioritize monitoring Taiwan’s upcoming Presidential election (scheduled for January 13, 2024) and then focus on Taiwan-related issues during the following several months.

The last China-Japan-South Korea trilateral summit was held in Chengdu, China in 2019. Subsequent summits were canceled due to COVID. The three countries had planned to resume their trilateral summits in South Korea in 2023, but later decided to postpone until March 2024.

The meeting was expected to be attended by South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Chinese Premier Li Qiang.

Source: Radio Taiwan International, December 31, 2023
https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2191394

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Xi Asked Chinese Diplomats to Continue Being “Wolf Warriors”

On December 29, 2023, Xi Jinping met with the diplomats attending the 2023 Annual Conference of Foreign Envoys and delivered a speech. Xi urged Chinese diplomats to continue being “wolf warriors”. Some key points from the speech are translated below:

  • “First, remember the original mission of the communist party and be loyal to the party. Loyalty to the Party, loyalty to the country, and loyalty to the people are the glorious traditions of the diplomatic front.”
  • “Second, be a daring and courageous innovator. Actively confront challenges and come up with practical solutions.”
  • “Third, dare to struggle and be skilled in struggles, to be defenders of national interests.”

Source: China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, December 29, 2023
https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/gjldrhd_674881/202312/t20231229_11215237.shtml

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

CCP’s Tactics to Influence People in Taiwan

The director of Taiwan’s Black Bear Institute, Shen Boyang, revealed new Chinese Communist Party (CCP) tactics focused on influencing Taiwan’s elections and shaping public opinion. Shen outlined the CCP’s “raising, enticing, and attacking” strategy, part of the CCP’s united front work, where the CCP first supports individuals financially then pressures them to promote CCP-friendly narratives in Taiwan.

Starting 2014, the CCP changed its strategy to focus primarily on Taiwanese youth. The new strategy is known as “three middles and one youth” (“三中一青”): focusing on small and medium-sized enterprises, middle and low-income groups, central and southern regions, and youth. To target young people, the CCP’s online army (“the 50 cent army”) upload content to each of approximately 200 YouTube channels every day.

For example, during the COVID pandemic, the CCP created a channel to attack the policy and efforts of Chen Shih-chung, then Taiwan’s Minister of Health and Welfare. The channel had 30 million views in Taiwan. The CCP also created the supporting group accounts of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President Lai Ching-teh on Facebook. After attracting a large number of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters there, the CCP started to post messages attacking Taiwanese politicians and policies.

Shen Boyang mentioned two series on TikTok – one called “DPP Resign” and another called “The DPP’s Domestic Policies Are Incompetent”. These two series garnered a total of 52 million views in Taiwan this year. Shen warned that ifTikTok users see that 99% of the news is about one party’s problems, he might think that the party is truly incompetent [being influenced by the Chinese propaganda].

Source: Epoch Times, December 31, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/12/31/n14147377.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

RFA Report: Korean Students Studying in China Down 80% Over Six Years

A recent report by the Korean Ministry of Education reported that the number of South Korean students going to China for higher education has decreased by nearly 80 percent over the past six years.

In 2017, there was a peak of 732,400 Korean students in China. As of April 1, 2023, there were only 158,570 Korean students in China, a 6.5 percent drop from 2022 and a 78.3 percent plunge compared to 2017. Each of the past six years has seen a declining number of Korean students in China compared with the year before.

The proportion of Korean international students who study in China has also shrunk substantially. In 2017, 30.5 percent of all Korean students abroad were in China. By 2021 the figure fell to 17.2 percent, and it has remained below 20 percent since then.

Analysts cite several reasons for the sharp decline in Korean students opting for Chinese universities. China’s slowing economic growth is likely a major factor discouraging foreign students, as were China’s strict epidemic control policies of recent years. A third potential factor could be Koreans’ declining opinions of China — polls have shown that the percentage of Koreans holding negative views about China has risen in recent years, especially among young Koreans.

Source: Radio Free Asia, December 26, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/Xinwen/3-12262023110441.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend