Geo-Strategic Trend - 58. page

Global Times recently reported that India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry said India and the European Union will resume free trade agreement negotiations, which have been stalled for nine years. The first round of negotiations between the two sides is scheduled to start in New Delhi on June 27. For India, this will be one of its most important free trade agreements as the EU is its second largest trading partner after the United States. Between 2021 and 2022, India’s merchandise trade with the EU reached a record high of US$116.36 billion, up 43.5 percent year-over-year. India’s exports to the EU are expected to grow 57 percent to US$65 billion in Fiscal Year 2021-2022. India is currently the EU’s tenth largest trading partner. Before Brexit, an EU study showed that a free trade deal with India would bring benefits worth US$10 billion. Negotiations on a free trade agreement between India and the EU began in 2007, but they were shelved in 2013 due to differences over issues like tariffs on cars and wine. In April this year, the European Commission President Von der Leyen Von der Leyen visited India, and Indian President Narendra Modi also visited Europe in May. The two leaders settled on the roadmap for the negotiation.

Source: Global Times, June 18, 2022
https://world.huanqiu.com/article/48TbaJjAZtw

On June 10, Russia and China announced the official opening of the Heilongjiang River Bridge, the first transnational highway bridge between the two countries. While confronting the West over the invasion of Ukraine, Russia is turning to Asia for support.

The bridge, more than one kilometer long, connects Blagoveshchensk, the capital of Russia’s far eastern Amur region, with the city of Heihe in northern China’s Heilongjiang province. Although it was started in 2016 and completed in 2019, the opening ceremony was delayed due to the COVID-19 outbreak.

According to official figures, the bridge, which cost 19 billion rubles (about US$328 million), is a two-lane road. According to Chinese media, the bridge is currently limited to cargo traffic only.

Source: Central News Agency, June 10, 2022
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202206100334.aspx

United Daily News (UDN), one of the primary Taiwanese news groups, recently reported that Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese publicly stated that the Australian government will review its 99-year lease of the Port of Darwin to Chinese companies. According to information on Albanese’s personal website, as early as 2018 when he was Labor Party’s infrastructure spokesman, he had already publicly opposed allowing the Chinese-owned Landbridge Group Australia to obtain the 99-year lease of the Port of Darwin. Subsequently, Albanese has repeatedly objected, saying that the Port of Darwin should not fall into the hands of any foreign enterprises.

Albanese said he had promised before the May election that when Labor came to power, he would push for a review of Landbridge’s lease. Albanese said Labor had backed the then Scott Morrison administration in the past when it was the opposition party to push for legislation so the federal government could block agreements between local governments and foreign entities. The Port of Darwin is the northernmost deep-water port in Australia and the closest to Asia. It is considered to be an important strategic stronghold for Australia. The Landbridge Group’s lease of the Port continues to be the focus of Australia’s national security controversy. However, in March this year, the Australian government announced that it would spend A$1.5 billion (about US$1.1 billion) to build a new port facility in Darwin. The New Port Plan is based on national security considerations, so that the Australian and US troops can avoid using the Darwin port facilities that Chinese companies operate.

Source: UDN, June 8, 2022
https://udn.com/news/story/6809/6374152?from=udn-catebreaknews_ch2

On June 8 in Cambodia, a ceremony marked the start of the new China-funded construction at Ream Naval Base. The senior Cambodian military and defense officials as well as China’s ambassador to Cambodia attended the ceremony.

According to Gen. Chau Phirun, director-general of the Cambodian Defense Ministry’s material and technical-services department, over the next two years, Chinese firms and technical experts from China’s military will build or renovate a number of structures including a maintenance workshop, a slipway and dry dock for repairing vessels, a warehouse, two new piers, and electrical, water and sewage infrastructures,

Cambodian Defense Minister Gen. Tea Banh said in a speech that the funding for the upgrades will be  from a Chinese grant. He denied that the Chinese forces will use the facility as a naval base.

The Wall Street Journal revealed in 2019 that Beijing had signed a clandestine agreement allowing its armed forces to have exclusive use of a part of Ream Naval Base, which is located on Cambodia’s southern coast facing the Gulf of Thailand.

China is helping Cambodia expand and upgrade Ream naval base in the Southeast Asian country, heightening concerns U.S. officials have expressed for years that Beijing plans to establish a naval outpost there. Experts say Chinese forces would be able to use the Cambodian facility to further assert Beijing’s expansive territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea.

China’s ambassador to Cambodia, Wang Wentian, said at the ceremony, “The Chinese military shall, as always and within its means, provide assistance to the Cambodian military.” Anyone who claims that China is using the facility to expand its influence is “using the yardsticks of knaves to judge a gentleman’s intentions.”

Sources:
1. WSJ, June 8, 2022.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-to-upgrade-ream-naval-base-in-cambodia-fueling-u-s-concerns-11654674382

2. Epoch times, June9, 2022.                                                                                                                                         https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/6/8/n13755167.htm

On May 30, 2022, a forum was sponsored by the Chongyang Institute of Financial Studies at Renmin University in China. Chen Wenling, Chief Economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE), a Chinese government think tank, gave a talk, according to the China based website guancha.cn.

Chen said, “China should be prepared for the U.S. strategic containment and suppression of China, and make sure that the supply chains are under control.  . . .  We need to sort out the advantages that will sufficiently scare our opponents and cause them irreversible losses and pressures. As a countermeasure, we need to stall and slow as much as possible our opponents’ moves to cut off the supply chain, the chain of scientific and technological cooperation, and the chain of innovation.”

“If the U.S. and the West impose destructive sanctions on China as they did on Russia, we must take back Taiwan. In terms of carrying out industrial chain and supply chain restructuring, we must get hold of TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) and other companies that originally belonged to China. They are accelerating the transfer to the United States to establish six plants over there. We absolutely cannot let their goal of transfer be achieved.” TSMC is the world’s leading semiconductor manufacturing and design company. It is the world’s most valuable semiconductor company, the world’s largest dedicated independent semiconductor foundry, and one of Taiwan’s largest companies.

“We need to support Russia openly, reasonably and by every possible means. For example, the recent Sino-Russian joint air exercises and so on. We can do more in trade, so that China and Russia can dovetail the ‘Belt & Road’ with the Eurasian Economic Union proposed by Putin to form a strategic depth in China, a Silk Road economic belt, and an energy security belt as a major security barrier.”

“It is necessary to step up cooperation with Europe. Europe is deeply affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the euro will be hit hard economically in the future. In addition, Europe will see a food crisis, an energy crisis and a refugee crisis. In the time of crisis in Europe, China can offer a helping hand and increase cooperation between China and Europe, so that the two plates of Asia and Europe can return to their historical status as political and economic centers.”

Source: Guancha.cn, June 6, 2022
https://www.guancha.cn/chenwenling/2022_06_06_643134_s.shtml

Global Times recently reported that, according to the latest statistics from India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the United States has surpassed China to become India’s largest trading partner in the 2021-22 fiscal year.The bilateral trade volume reached US$119.42 billion. In the previous fiscal year, India’s exports to the U.S. increased to about $76.11 billion from about $51.62 billion  while imports rose to about $43.31 billion from about $29 billion. The Vice-Chairman of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations said India is becoming a trusted global trading partner. Global companies are reducing their single dependence on China and settling in India to diversify their businesses. India has joined the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, a move that will further strengthen economic ties between the two countries. Indian media reported that the U.S. is one of the few countries with whom India has a trade surplus of $32.8 billion in the 2021-22 fiscal year. In the meantime, the trade volume between India and China is also rising steadily. There is no “decoupling of trade with China” as previously hyped by the Indian media. India still has a large trade deficit with China, which is much higher than it was in the previous three years. India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry said that India’s imports from China are showing a declining trend.

Source: Global Times, May 30, 2022
https://world.huanqiu.com/article/48DLLzsUgba

Primary Malaysian Chinese language newspaper Oriental Daily recently reported that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plans to attend the NATO summit scheduled for late June in Spain. This move will make him the first Japanese leader to attend this Western alliance meeting. Whether Kishida will actually attend the June 29-30 meeting in Madrid depends on the domestic political situation. The timing may conflict with the political campaign season for the July 10 Senate election. Kishida’s participation in the NATO summit is expected to strengthen the coordination with the United States and European countries to deal with Russia’s war in Ukraine and possible emergencies in the Taiwan Strait. Kishida plans to travel to Spain on June 26 after attending the three-day G7 summit in Germany. Australia, New Zealand and South Korea were also invited to the NATO summit as Asia-Pacific partners. The involvement of Japan and other non-NATO countries will send a strong message of solidarity to the international community in the Ukraine crisis. However, some Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers believe that Kishida, who already has a relatively high approval rating, should concentrate on campaigning before the Senate election.

Source: Oriental Daily, June 4, 2022
https://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php/news/international/2022/06/04/490801

Nikkei Chinese Edition recently reported that the Nihon Keizai Shimbun and TV Tokyo conducted a joint public opinion survey from May 27 to 29. According to the survey, the approval rating for Fumio Kishida’s cabinet has reached 66 percent, the highest since taking office in October 2021. The result of the last survey in April was 64 percent. The disapproval rating for the cabinet was 23 percent. Regarding the summit between Fumio Kishida and U.S. President Joe Biden, 61 percent gave it a favorable rating. Regarding the Kishida government’s response to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, 69 percent gave their approval. Some analysts expressed the belief that Japan’s Covid situation is gradually easing. Improved diplomatic and security measures have resulted in a higher approval rating. Regarding the policies that the voters want the government to prioritize, the number one was “recovering the economy” (40 percent). In terms of reasons for disapproval, ranked at the top were “the Liberal Democratic Party centered cabinet” and “lack of leadership” (both were at 35 percent).

Source: Nikkei Chinese, May 30, 2022
https://cn.nikkei.com/politicsaeconomy/politicsasociety/48706-2022-05-30-09-39-02.html