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China’s “Panda Diplomacy”

The Epoch Times reported that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been using giant pandas for its diplomacy agenda. As Sino-U.S. relations have soured, China plans to take back three pandas on loan to the U.S. National Zoo at Washington, DC. by end of this year. If the Atlanta Zoo cannot renew its panda contract with Beijing by next year, then the U.S. will have no panda for the first time in 50 years.

The CCP started its “Panda Diplomacy” with the West in 1972 when it gifted two giant pandas to the U.S. following Nixon’s visit to China.

Scholar Kathleen Buckingham published a research paper in 2013 outlining three phases of the CCP’s “Panda Diplomacy.”

  • The first phase, during Mao Zedong’s era, involved gifting giant pandas purely for political purposes.
  • In the second phase, under Deng Xiaoping, panda diplomacy aligned with economic reforms, with China adopting a capitalistic model to generate revenue by leasing the pandas.
  • In The third phase, starting in 2008, the leasing model has leaned towards countries with free trade agreements and technology transfer agreements with the CCP. For instance, Australia, France, and Canada have received pandas after agreeing to sell nuclear technology and uranium to China. Scotland received a pair of pandas in 2011 as part of an agreement to share offshore drilling technology and supply salmon to China. In 2013, the Netherlands received pandas as they agreed to provide advanced medical services.

To attract attention and as a means of leverage, the CCP now requires foreign heads of state to personally request pandas before deciding whether to lease them.

The CCP has also been recalling pandas as a punitive tool. In 2010, two days after Beijing warned President Obama not to meet the Dalai Lama, China called back the first batch of panda cubs born in the Atlanta Zoo and the Washington National Zoo. Amid the tensions over the U.S.-China trade war in 2019, Beijing retrieved pandas “Bai Yun” and her cub and “Little Gift” from the San Diego Zoo. This year, due to the Netherlands’ adherence to U.S. restrictions on the sale of advanced semiconductor processing equipment to China, Beijing recalled the three-year-old panda “Fan Xing” from a Dutch zoo.

Source: Epoch Times, October 10, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/10/10/n14091930.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations

China Uses Israel-Hamas War in Anti-US Propaganda

China’s state newspaper Global Times has used the war in Middle East to criticize the United States.

One editorial states, “It should be noted that the Palestinian-Israeli issue is a complex collection of problems, and that the interference of external forces is one of the main reasons for the delay in resolving the issue and even for the intensification of hatred. The United States-led Western countries have long been ‘pulling the strings’ on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, and it is obvious that the United States has been behind a number of wars in the Middle East throughout history. After the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the decisions of the United States and other Western countries to hastily take sides has not helped to solve the problem; rather, it is likely to add fuel to the fire.”

Another editorial argued, “It must be said that the prolonged marginalization of the Palestinian issue by the United States and the West is cruel. It is even more hypocritical for the elites of the United States and the West to ignore the actual humanitarian catastrophe [in Palestine] and to discuss the abstract concept of human rights. We have noticed that many in the US and the West have publicly expressed opinions, trying to create pressure to ‘choose sides’, keeping track of those countries that ‘have not condemned Hamas.’ In a phone call with the Saudi foreign minister, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken even unapologetically ‘instructed’ the Saudis to ‘unequivocally condemn’ the attack. Truth be told, Washington is in no position to educate anyone on this issue.”

Source: Global Times, October 8, 2023
https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/4ErWijmRxmd
Global Times, October 9, 2023
https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/4EsMjhCtt0J

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Lianhe Zaobao: U.S. Companies Pessimistic About Business Prospects in China

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that, according to a survey of its member companies by the U.S.-China Business Council, rising bilateral tensions are affecting every aspect of U.S. companies’ operations in China. This includes hurt sales, lower profits, and canceled or delayed investments.

In this latest annual survey, the proportion of companies expressing pessimism about the prospects of their business in China over the next five years rose to 28 percent from 21 percent last year, setting a new record high. The share of companies with an optimistic outlook dropped to a record low of 49 percent. More than one-third of the companies surveyed said they had reduced or suspended investment plans in China during the past year, also a record high and well above the 22 percent in last year’s survey. This means the businesses’ commercial presence in China will likely see further decline.

These businesses’ decisions are driven by the increased costs and uncertainty of doing business in China, as well as by increased restrictions on selling products into the Chinese market. Particularly unsettling for U.S. companies are China’s far-reaching rules on data handling, personal information, and cybersecurity. Some 97 percent of the companies surveyed expressed concern over these issues.

The U.S.-China Business Council said that most of the companies involved in the survey are large U.S. multinationals that have been operating in China for decades.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, September 27, 2023
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/china/story20230927-1437188

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Miles Yu: Xi Jinping Misjudges U.S. Politics in Making Abstract Demands of Biden

In July’s episode of the “China Insider” podcast hosted by Miles Yu, who served as principal China policy and planning adviser under former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Yu talked about how Xi Jinping misjudged U.S.-China relations this year. According to Yu, Xi’s main concern has not been specific U.S. policies but rather how U.S. political ideology might influence the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) regime. Xi wished to secure a series of commitments from U.S. leadership, but what Xi asked for was not easy for the U.S. to carry out concretely. Thus Xi’s perceived stumbling blocks in U.S.-China relations have not been addressed.

In a March 2023 phone call, Biden agreed to several abstract requests made by Xi, including commitments regarding U.S. geopolitical influence over China and Taiwan. Biden’s administration has not followed up with concrete actions, however. Yu points out that Xi operates within communist China’s authoritarian and dictatorial model, so he has been unable to understand why his demands are unrealistic from the perspective of the U.S. model of government.

Yu said that Xi made several strong demands of Biden during their phone call in March.

  • First, Xi hoped that the U.S. government would clearly state that it does not seek “regime change” in China. Biden thought for a moment and gave a commitment on that.
  • Second, Xi demanded that the Biden government assure China that it won’t organize “anti-China alliances.” Biden thought about this request and said that the U.S. has a strong alliance system worldwide, but there is no alliance system specifically targeting a particular country. So Biden agreed to this request by Xi.
  • Third, Xi Jinping asked Biden to promise not to support Taiwan independence. Biden agreed.

Following the phone call, Xi believed that he had secured some fundamental ideological commitments from the U.S. government. The Biden administration, on the other hand, felt that Xi’s demands were abstract and unrealistic (hard or impossible to implement) — this is why Biden was willing to agree to them.

After the phone call, the U.S. government didn’t take any concrete measures based on Xi’s demands — they couldn’t be implemented. China has been complaining that President Biden has not kept his promises and hasn’t taken concrete actions. Under pressure from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the Biden administration sent cabinet-level members to China to visit, hoping to implement some measures from the March phone call. However, these officials (including Antony Blinken, Janet Yellen, and John Kerry) focused on specific, practical matters and did not address the larger strategic issues that were irking Xi. Indeed, in Yu’s assessment, Xi and the CCP have a misguided understanding about how the U.S. political system works — despite a series of cabinet-level visits to China, Xi’s demands couldn’t be addressed.

Source: Hudson Institute Website, July 28, 2023
https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/zhongguoneimu

Briefings | | |   @CS US-China Relations

RFI: U.S. Companies’ Confidence in the Chinese Market Declines to Record Low

Optimism among U.S. companies operating in China has hit a “record low” according to a Radio France Internationale (RFI) Chinese Edition report on a survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Shanghai. More and more companies are seeking to withdraw investment from China even as the Chinese government is taking measures to boost the country’s sluggish economy.

The AmCham report stated that, after years of pandemic disruption and restrictions, 2023 was supposed to be a year of rebound in investor confidence and optimism. However, the Chamber’s 2023 survey of U.S. companies in China found that such a rebound has not materialized and business confidence has continued to deteriorate.

In addition to poor economic conditions, tensions between Beijing and Washington have also put heavy pressure on U.S. companies operating in China. The report indicated that respondents’ optimism about the next five years is the lowest on record: only 52 percent of companies, a decrease of three percentage points from the previous year, expressed optimism about their prospects for that time period. When asked about the top three challenges they face, 60 percent of the 325 surveyed companies mentioned that US-China relations were a significant challenge, and 60 percent of respondents mentioned economic slowdown as one of the top three headwinds. Around 40 percent of companies are planning to move or have already moved capital out of China, an increase of six percentage points over last year. Southeast Asia is the most popular alternative destination to which U.S. companies are moving their production and capital.

Source: RFI Chinese, September 19, 2023
https://tinyurl.com/2kkyuh26

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources US-China Relations

Apple’s iPhone15 Pre-Sale in China Was Much More Successful Than Huawei

Well-known Chinese news site NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES) recently reported that, within ten minutes of going on sale, Apple’s Chinese official website crashed and remained unavailable for six to seven minutes. And in the official Tmall Apple flagship store, the first batch of iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max were sold out within one minute. According to the online sales manager in charge of the Tmall site, in half an hour, they restocked nine times and are still restocking. For now, iPhone 15 Pro Max is selling the fastest, and iPhone 15 Pro sales are also very high.

According to the iPhone reservation data released by the JD.com platform, the number of reservations for the iPhone 15 Pro model exceeds 1.13 million; the number of reservations for the iPhone 15 Pro Max, which has higher specifications and a higher price, is even greater, with more than 1.43 million reservations. Judging from this reference data, the iPhone 15 Pro models are already far ahead, unmatched by any other manufacturer, not even the breakthrough Huawei Mate 60 series made recently. Huawei recently announced a new Mate model that utilized 7-nm technology which was considered an answer to the U.S. blockage. However, Apple’s latest iPhone employs 3-nm cutting-edge technology which is far ahead and attracted much more enthusiasm in China.

Sources:
(1) NetEase, September 16, 2023
https://www.163.com/dy/article/IEPM2QJ80526D8LR.html
(2) Economy Daily (Taiwan), September 17, 2023
https://money.udn.com/money/story/5603/7444856

Briefings | | |   Information/Technology US-China Relations

UDN: U.S. Discovered Lithium Deposit in Nevada – May Be the World’s Largest

United Daily News (UDN), one of the primary Taiwanese news groups, recently reported that, according to new research published in the journal Science Advances, scientists estimate that the lithium deposit located in the McDermitt Crater on the border of Oregon and Nevada contains 20 to 40 million tons of lithium. If the estimate is correct, the lithium reserves here will be greater than those in Bolivia’s salt flats, which contain about 23 million tons. Lithium is crucial for producing the batteries needed for electric cars and other green technologies, and the U.S. may have found the world’s largest lithium deposit. This estimate could change global lithium dynamics in terms of price, supply security and geopolitics. Some of the world’s richest lithium deposits are found in salt marshes. But McDermitt Crater’s lithium is locked in clay, and this clay mineral is easier to separate. As demand for lithium batteries grows exponentially nowadays, experts warn the world could face a lithium shortage by the end of the century. While global lithium supplies are likely to remain adequate in the next couple of years, regional supply imbalances are inevitable.

Source: UDN, September 11, 2023
https://udn.com/news/story/6813/7431205

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources US-China Relations

PLA Officer Advocates Preemptive Strikes Against U.S. in Event of War

Li Li (李莉), a prominent military commentator and esteemed professor at China’s National Defense University, recently made a bold assertion during a televised discussion. In contemplating the prospect of armed conflict, Li recommended that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) consider a proactive “preemptive” approach, targeting U.S. military installations in Japan as a primary strategic objective.

Li’s perspective can be summarized as follows: “In the event of war, our foremost imperative is to preemptively neutralize U.S. military bases situated in Japan.” In her discourse, Li used the term “American imperialism” to refer to the United States and emphasized that “we will not hesitate like Russia did”. She firmly asserted that “only decisive and swift counteraction can guarantee our nation’s survival and sustained progress. We shall not delay in neutralizing U.S. ‘black’ aircraft carriers and ‘black’ bombers. We shall seize the earliest opportunity to take actions and leave the enemy no chance to breathe.”

Source: Aboluo, September 8, 2023
https://www.aboluowang.com/2023/0908/1951318.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Defense/Military US-China Relations