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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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China’s Unannounced Cremated Remains in Q4 2022

The Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs (MOCA) has released civil affairs statistics for the fourth quarter of 2022 after a significant delay. However, unlike previous years, they did not disclose the cumulative number of “cremated remains” for the entire year of 2022. This has raised suspicions about the number of people who died from the epidemic during that period.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics had previously announced that 10.41 million people would die in 2022, based on data collected from November 2021 to October 2022. This data did not include the COVID-19 outbreak that occurred from November to December of the same year.

The Ministry of Civil Affairs has typically published civil affairs statistics every quarter, and the statistics for the fourth quarter are usually released by April of the following year at the latest. However, the statistics for the fourth quarter of 2022 were not released until June 9, and the cumulative number of “cremated remains” for 2022 was not disclosed as usual.

The ministry has not provided any explanation for the delay or the omission of the cremation data. Some independent media outlets have highlighted this unusual situation but have refrained from criticizing the authorities for potentially hiding the number of COVID-19 deaths.

According to previously released data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the number of cremated remains in the first three quarters of 2022 was 4.776 million, a 10 percent increase compared to the same period in 2021.

The cremation rate in China for 2021 was 58.8 percent, showing a 3.1 percentage point increase from 2020. However, the ministry has not announced the cremation rate for 2022, although estimations from the funeral industry suggest it could be over 60 percent.

Since the Ministry of Civil Affairs has not disclosed the number of cremated remains for the fourth quarter of 2022, it is impossible to estimate the number of deaths during that period. Therefore, the exact number of people who died from the epidemic during the outbreak remains unknown.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), June 13, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202306130381.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China’s May Total Exports Declined while Exports to Russia Increased

Well-known Chinese news site Sohu (NASDAQ: SOHU) recently reported that China’s General Administration of Customs just released import and export data for May. In U.S. dollar terms, China’s exports fell 7.5 percent year-over-year in May, turning negative again after two months. The impact of the pandemic is in the past, but the troika that promotes China’s economic development, investments, consumption and exports – have all encountered tremendous pressure this year. Also in May of this year, China’s total imports and exports reached US$501.19 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 6.2 percent. The trade surplus was US$65.81 billion, narrowing from last year’s by 16.1 percent. The fastest growing export destination for China in May was Russia, with an increase of 114.32 percent year-over-year, hitting a new record high. Exports to Africa increased by 12.94 percent, and exports to the UK increased by 3.73 percent. Other than those, exports to other major countries, regions, and economies all fell sharply in May. Exports to the United States, the European Union and ASEAN fell by 18.2 percent, 7.0 percent and 15.9 percent year-over-year respectively. The ten countries/regions/economies with the fastest year-over-year decline in cumulative exports from January to May were Taiwan, Canada, the United States, New Zealand, Italy, France, Hong Kong, Germany, the European Union, and the Netherlands. Also, China’s share of U.S. foreign trade has  declined, continuing its downward trend. China accounted for 15.4 percent of U.S. goods imports in the 12 months through April, the smallest share since October 2006.

Sources:
(1) Sohu, June 7, 2023
https://www.sohu.com/a/682988626_114984
(2) Lianhe Zaobao, June 8, 2023
https://www.kzaobao.com/cngov/2023-06/08140491.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Heads of Four Major Korean Enterprises Will Soon Visit France and Vietnam

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) recently reported that, according to Korean media, the heads of the four major Korean manufacturing enterprises will jointly visit France and Vietnam at the end of June. These major Korean business leaders including Lee Jae-yong, chairman of Samsung Electronics, Chey Tae-won, chairman of the SK Group, Chung Eui-sun, chairman of the Hyundai Motor Group, and Koo Kwang-mo, chairman of the LG Group, will attend the publicity campaign event in Paris for the 2030 Busan World Expo bid. Afterwards, the business leaders will fly to Hanoi, Vietnam to attend the Korea-Vietnam Business Forum and other activities to explore ways to strengthen bilateral economic cooperation. It is reported that Shin Dong-bin, chairman of Lotte Group, may also attend the event together with the other four leaders. At present, Vietnam has attracted investments from 142 countries and regions, among which South Korea’s total investment in Vietnam has reached US$81.3 billion, becoming Vietnam’s largest foreign investor.

Source: Sina, Jun 2, 2023
https://cj.sina.com.cn/articles/view/5182171545/134e1a99902001k8ww

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Lianhe Zaobao: UK Government Plans to Remove Surveillance Cameras Made in China

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that the British Cabinet Office will ask all government departments to remove surveillance cameras produced by Chinese companies to stop potential intelligence gathering by the Chinese government. When announcing this decision, the Cabinet Office also mentioned that a timetable will be announced for various departments to follow in order to remove surveillance cameras installed in sensitive places. The British government did not name specific Chinese companies, only saying that surveillance cameras produced by companies subject to China’s National Intelligence Law must be removed. Two people familiar with the matter said that the order is aimed at Hikvision and Dahua, two of China’s largest surveillance camera makers. Cabinet Office Minister Jeremy Quin said the new measures would protect sensitive sectors of the UK from companies that could threaten UK national security and would act as a firm deterrent against hostile acts wishing to harm the UK. He announced the measures as he proposed a series of new amendments to the government’s procurement act, including the creation of a new unit to investigate suppliers who may pose a risk to UK national security and assess whether to ban these companies from public procurement. At least a third of the police forces in England and Wales use surveillance cameras made by Hikvision. Hikvision responded by saying its products have no security issues.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, June 7, 2023
https://www.kzaobao.com/shiju/20230607/140427.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Information/Technology

Chinese Citizen Estimates 54 Million Jobless Chinese Aged 24 to 40

A Chinese article (written by an individual) estimated that there are 54 million unemployed youth (aged 24 to 40) in China. The article’s main points were:

  • From 2020 to 2023, the gaps between the number of new jobs (for graduates) and the number of graduating students were -2.49 million, -2.20 million, -4.49 million, and -5.82 million, respectively. Thus there should be a total over 15 million graduated students without jobs.
  • About 10 percent of Chinese companies were dissolved in 2022. This means roughly 10 percent of previously-employed workers became unemployed. There should be about 25 million jobless youths as a result.
  • Due to the COVID pandemic, about 14 million young migrant workers lost their jobs within cities.

People aged 24 to 40 account for about 22 percent of China’s population. Using the Chinese government’s population estimate of 1.4 billion, the 24-40 age group should have about 308 million people, resulting in an unemployment rate of 17.5 percent.

Source: Cyzone.cn website
https://m.cyzone.cn/article/728631

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources

South Korean Scholar: Chinese Foreign Ministry Official Tells South Korea “Who Is the Boss”

Liu Jinsong (刘劲松), China’s Director-General of the Department of Asian Affairs within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, visited Seoul in late May. China’s state media only reported that Liu conveyed China’s “stern” position to Korea and did not go into the details of the visit. Choo Jae-woo, a professor at Kyung Hee University in South Korea, wrote to The Korea Times that Liu enumerated “Four Not-allowed” positions to demonstrate to South Korea “who is the boss.” China’s “Four Not-Allowed” positions are:

  1. China will not cooperate with South Korea if it infringes on China’s core interests (e.g., the Taiwan issue);
  2. China will not cooperate with South Korea if it moves toward a pro-U.S. and pro-Japan foreign policy;
  3. China will not engage in high-level exchanges (e.g., Xi Jinping’s state visit to South Korea) if relations between the two countries remain tense; and
  4. South Korea will not be able to play a leading role on the North Korea issue if the situation deteriorates.

Mao Ning, China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson, responded to a question on Liu’s visit at a press conference: “Regarding the current difficulties and challenges in Sino-South Korean relations, responsibility [for the difficulties] does not lie on China’s side. In the recent dialogue, China has expressed its stern position on its core issues to the Korean side. The Korean side should understand the problems in depth and treat them carefully, walk in the same direction that China takes, and put in positive efforts to enhance Sino-South Korean relations.”

Sources:
1. Sina, May 31, 2023
https://news.sina.cn/2023-05-31/detail-imyvscth0982061.d.html?cre=tianyi&mod=wpage&loc=12&r=0&rfunc=78&tj=cxvideo_wpage&tr=214&wm=6090
2. Epoch Times, June 6, 2023
https://cn.epochtimes.com/gb/23/6/5/n14010574.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend

Guangxi Plans Investment Management Measures to Shield Government from SOE Liabilities

China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region circulated a document titled, “Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Investment Management Measures” for public review and opinion. The review period is June 5 to June 16. The proposed measures would exclude the government from taking on the liabilities of state-owned enterprises (SOE’s). This may indicate that the government no longer has the resources to cover SOE debt.

Article 15 of the measure states:

…

SOE’s and state-controlled enterprises should follow the principle of prudence in external investment and financing, strictly control the asset-liability ratio, and not take on too much debt. … When doing debt financing, they should declare that they do not carry government financing functions, that the debt raised is for corporate use, and that the local government does not assume responsibility for the debt. …

Money which is raised from the market by SOE’s and which results in debt but which lacks (needed) continuous funding or … results from decision-making errors, are the responsibility of the SOE’s to handle. Following the principle of “who raised the debt is responsible for the debt;” the government does not assume any responsibility for debt repayment.”

Source: Guangxi Government Site, June 4, 2023
http://fgw.gxzf.gov.cn/hdjl/yjzj/opinionDetail.shtml?opinionid=6116

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

Scholar Discusses Distortion of Chinese Unemployment Statistics

As China’s economy continues to decline, the unemployment rate has been steadily rising. Recently, a Chinese scholar pointed out that the official unemployment statistics are distorted, and it is estimated that around 54 million young people have become unemployed since the outbreak of the pandemic, making the employment situation increasingly severe.

Amidst the ongoing pandemic, China’s economy has faced sluggishness, leading to unemployment becoming a pressing social concern. On June 1, a researcher from the Beijing Reform and Development Research Institute, a government think tank, shed light on three primary issues with China’s current unemployment statistics.

Firstly, the scholar highlighted that China’s official employment standards are set too low. China considers individuals employed if they work for just one hour per week. Meanwhile, the International Labour Organization defines employment as working for at least 10 hours per week, and the United States and France have higher thresholds at 15 and 20 hours per week, respectively.

Secondly, the inclusion of rural household registration holders in urban unemployment statistics skews the data. Many migrant workers, facing the high cost of living, are compelled to return to their hometowns after losing their jobs in cities. This migration makes it challenging to accurately capture this group in urban unemployment surveys, resulting in distorted data.

Thirdly, China has a significant number of “flexible employees” (people who work on flexible work and hours, such as Uber driver or food delivery), totaling 200 million, which accounts for roughly 40% of the urban employed population. However, less than 20% of this group participates in social security programs, making it difficult to assess the true employment situation using indicators such as unemployment benefits and registration.

According to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security’s latest data, the number of college graduates in China is expected to reach a record high of 11.58 million in 2023.

According to the analysis presented in the aforementioned WeChat article, after three years of the pandemic, approximately 15 million vocational school and college graduates in China are unable to find jobs. Additionally, the average number of employees in A-share listed companies has decreased by 11.9% over the past three years, indicating that around 10% of employees have become unemployed. The estimated number of employed youth aged 16 to 24 is approximately 25 million. Professor Lu Feng from Peking University estimates that around 23 million migrant workers have returned to their hometowns due to unemployment during the same period. Considering that 60% of this group are young people, there would be around 14 million unemployed young migrant workers. Consequently, “since the outbreak of the pandemic, the number of unemployed young people has increased by approximately 54 million.”

The article conservatively estimates that the absolute number of unemployed youth in China has increased by around 25-30 million compared to the pre-pandemic period. This figure accounts for approximately 6.2% – 7.5% of the total labor force in this age group or 2.8% – 3.4% of the entire working-age population in China.

Source: Radio Free Asia, June 6, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/jw2-06062023132743.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources