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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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UDN: Apple’s India Focus Enhanced Taiwanese Supply Chain

United Daily News (UDN), one of the primary Taiwanese news groups, recently reported that, Apple’s rush to “Made in India” has been fruitful, with over US$7 billion worth of iPhones assembled in India in its last fiscal year. This means tripling iPhone production in the world’s fastest growing smartphone market. Foxconn, Wistron and Pegatron played an important role. The three major Taiwanese foundries’ Indian manufacturing business grew simultaneously and became big winners. With the help from its Taiwanese partners, Apple produced about 7 percent of iPhones in India in the last fiscal year, a huge jump from the previous 1 percent. In the current fiscal year, Apple assembled more than US$7 billion in iPhones in India by the end of March, of which US$5 billion was exported, nearly four times the amount in the previous year. Apple may attempt to produce the next generation of mobile phones simultaneously in India and Mainland China, possibly in the fall of this year, which will be the first time that Apple mobile phones get assembled simultaneously in China and India. A quarter of Apple’s phones could be assembled in India by 2025, if suppliers continue to expand aggressively.

Source: UDN, April 14, 2023
https://udn.com/news/story/7240/7096899

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Information/Technology

Ukraine Listed Xiaomi as Russia’s “International Sponsor”

Well-known Chinese news site NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES) recently reported that, the Ukrainian National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption issued an announcement, adding Xiaomi to the list of so-called “war sponsors” and imposing sanctions. The “Sponsors of International War” list includes a number of foreign companies that Ukraine believes have been “funding” Russia since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Most of these companies did not withdraw from the Russian market after February 24 last year. The reason for Xiaomi’s inclusion on the list is that “the company continues to operate in Russia and maintains a leading position in the Russian smartphone market.” The announcement also cited some of Xiaomi’s efforts to increase the size of its Russian office staff. Since 2018, Xiaomi has ranked first in the sales of online stores in Russia, and has a large offline official authorized retail network throughout Russia. Based on the data for the third quarter of 2022, compared with the previous quarter, Xiaomi’s supply to Russia has increased by 39 percent. Currently, Xiaomi ranks third in the global smartphone shipment rankings, with a global market share of 12.8 percent.

Source: NetEase, April 15, 2023
https://www.163.com/dy/article/I2ATRES80512B07B.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Information/Technology

North Korea Successfully Launched Solid-fuel Ballistic Missile

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) recently reported that, according to the Korean Central News Agency, North Korea successfully test-fired a ballistic missile using solid fuel. General Secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea and Chairman of the State Council Kim Jong-un guided the test launch. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff confirmed the North Korea missile launch into the eastern waters of the Korean Peninsula that day, and the South Korean military is analyzing specific parameters such as the missile type and flight distance. This is North Korea’s first launch of a ballistic missile 17 days after it launched a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) on March 27, and it is also the ninth ballistic missile launch this year. It is worth noting that Kim Jong-un, the supreme leader of North Korea, presided over the Sixth Enlarged Meeting of the Eighth Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party of Korea on the 10th, emphasizing the necessity of expanding the “war deterrent force.” Also, according to NHK, the Japanese government issued a nationwide instantaneous warning around the same time, indicating that North Korea was suspected of launching a ballistic missile. Later, Japan’s Defense Ministry announced that a ballistic missile launched by North Korea had landed, but did not say where it landed.

Source: Sina, April 4, 2023
https://news.sina.com.cn/w/2023-04-14/doc-imyqhyiq6569030.shtml

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Chinese Scholar: Deflation is Here

According to Liu Yuhui, a Professor at the Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s economy has fallen into recession.

“In a word, the current economic situation in China is that deflation has begun, and the economy has fallen into the recession,” Liu wrote in an article published recently. The following summarizes his view on the issue of debts.

In the previous 15 months, China’s M2 has increased by more than 40 trillion. But it has not stopped the economy from sliding into deflation.

There are 1.4 billion people in China. According to the statistics of China’s central bank, 700 million people are now in debt. If children and older people are excluded, almost everyone in the country is in debt.

The total debt of the household sector accounts for as much as 137.9 percent of its disposable income, and the debt ratio of American households is about 90 percent in the same period. There is a more than 40 percentage points gap between China and the United States.

The ability of households to pay is constrained significantly. The annual interest payment accounts for nearly 15% of disposable income to cope with such debts. In the same period in the United States, this figure was 7%. From January to February 2023, the total amount of credit in China’s household sector was only 290 billion, less than 300 billion.

The high debt ratio of 137.9 percent today is much worse than the below 80 percent in 2015. This radio doubled in seven years. As a result, the ability and willingness to spend and borrow in the entire economy are rapidly collapsing.

Liu believed a breakthrough leading to China’s economic recovery in 2023 is indeed difficult.

Source: iNewsDB, April 12, 2023
https://bit.ly/3UJVnew

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

RFI Chinese: Chinese Local Officials Flock Abroad to Seek Investments

Radio France Internationale (RFI) Chinese Edition recently reported that, since December, large delegations of officials from across China have already made hundreds of visits to Asia and Europe. Local governments have been scrambling to meet growth and employment targets. According to three sources, local officials, along with their municipal and provincial supervisors and local businesses, have been traveling abroad more than ever before. The Chinese economy has paid a huge price due to China’s strict Zero Covid policy. After three years behind closed borders, officials have traveled to Hong Kong, Paris and the like within days of the restrictions being lifted. Their urgency underscores the pressure on local governments to boost growth while saddled with a cumulative US$9 trillion in debt. A video that was posted online by the government of the eastern province of Jiangsu showed a 200-member Chinese delegation even chanting slogans like “grab new orders” as they boarded a private jet bound for Europe at 1 am. Just two days after China abruptly lifted the Zero Covid restrictions, that delegation alone was said to be scheduled to hold more than 230 business meetings in Europe. Wuxi, which is close to the commercial center of Shanghai, held 85 signing ceremonies during a 7-day trip to Hong Kong, Macau and Shenzhen, with a total transaction value of RMB 156 billion yuan (around US$22.7 billion). However, many foreign investors are still complaining about the unfair playing field, intellectual property theft and unpredictable rules for overseas companies.

Source: RFI Chinese, April 7, 2023
https://bit.ly/3KFecLp

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Chinese Schools and Kindergartens Close Down as Birth Rate Drops

China’s Primary Schools Dropped by 80,000 in 10 Years. According to data recently released by China’s Ministry of Education, there were 149,100 primary schools in 2022, compared to 229,000 in 2012, a decline of 79,900 or 35 percent.

The chances of any improvement seem slim. In 2022, there were 289,200 kindergartens in China, a decrease of about 5,600 compared with the previous year.

Behind the decline in the number of kindergartens and primary schools in China is the sharp drop in the number of newborns.

According to data released by the CCP this year, there were 9.56 million newborns in China in 2022, with a birth rate of only 6.77‰ and a natural growth rate of -0.60 percent. This is the first time since 1950 that the annual birth population has fallen below 10 million. CCP data show that China had 10.62 million newborns in 2021, 12.02 million in 2020, and 14.65 million in 2019.

According to the “China Statistical Yearbook 2022,” 13 of the 31 provinces and municipalities directly under the Chinese central government had negative population growth, namely: Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, and Sichuan.

Analysts observed that China has a history of not releasing actual figures, but one can see a trend from the statistics it does release.

Source: Epoch Times, April 5, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/23/4/5/n13965673.htm

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Social Stability

People’s Daily Urgently Destroyed Papers due to Missing Xi Jinping’s Name

On the evening of March 30, officials responsible for the distribution of the Communist Party’s mouthpiece, People’s Daily, issued an urgent notice to stop delivering and destroy the newspaper immediately, according to Hong Kong-based Ming Pao. Although the notice was harshly worded, no explanation was given for the action. Screenshots of the notice were circulated on social media.

Sources familiar with the situation have pointed out that the incident was a result of the omission of the three characters of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s name in an opinion article published in the newspaper. Ming Pao reported that on March 30, page 5 of People’s Daily contained a commentary article titled “Unity and struggle is the only way for the Chinese people to create greatness in history”. In the article, Xi Jinping’s name was erroneously missed from the sixth line of the seventh paragraph before the word “comrade.” The sentence, which should have started as “the Party Central Committee with comrade Xi Jinping as the core…”, was instead misprinted as “the Party Central Committee with comrade as the core….”

According to the same source, the notice to stop delivering and destroy the newspaper was issued after an internal investigation. As the incident was made public and could cause adverse effects, it is expected that the editor and other responsible persons will be punished.

Source: Liberty Times (Taiwan), April 4, 2023
https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/4260403

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

New Births in China’s Six Largest Provinces Fell in 2022

On March 31, The Paper, a Chinese media outlet, reported that the six major economic provinces in China, namely Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan, which are also major population provinces, experienced a decrease in the number of births last year. In fact, Shandong and Henan even reported negative population growth.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported in January that there were 9.56 million new births last year, which is 1.06 million fewer than in 2021. This marks the first negative growth in 61 years.

The six large provinces saw varying degrees of decreasing birth rates, with Guangdong, the most economically developed and most populous province, experiencing the largest decrease of 131,100 births.

These six provinces collectively have a population of about 562 million, accounting for nearly 40% of China’s total population. While Guangdong and Zhejiang registered a slight positive population growth rate of only 0.04 per thousand, the remaining four provinces showed negative population growth.

Source: The Paper, March 31, 2023
https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_22527853

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources