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China and Venezuela Join Hands in Oil Development and Refining

The State owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has recently signed a framework agreement with Venezuela’s Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA ) to form two joint ventures, one for heavy oil development in Venezuela and the other for oil refining in China. PDVSA will hold 60% and CNPC 40 % in the development of the joint venture project in Block Junin 4 of the Orinoco belt in Venezuela, with an estimated production capacity of 20 million tons per year. The refinery in China will refine the 20 million ton of crude oil from the Block Junin 4 joint venture. CNPC will hold 60% and PDVSA 40%.

Source: Xinhua, May 13, 2008
http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-05/13/content_8162051.htm

Beijing: No Major Earthquakes Despite Jolts

Beijing Seismological Bureau said on May 12 that in the near future, Beijing will not see any destructive earthquakes. Earlier, Beijing residents felt jolted at 14:35 on May 12. The shakes lasted about one minute. Gu Yongxin, Deputy Director of Beijing Seismological Bureau, stated that it was the aftermath of the recent Sichuan earthquake.  Reports of possible earthquakes in Beijing was dismissed as rumors.

Source: Xinhua, May 12, 2008
http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-05/12/content_8153951.htm

Xinhua Commentary: Party and Government Intimately Connect with People

Amid the news of earthquake strike, General Secretary Hu Jingtao Immediately gave out order to rescue the wounded as soon as possible and Premier Wen Jiabao immediately flew to the disaster region to direct the rescue effort. Various other governmental agencies launched emergency operations to support the anti-earthquake relief effort in order to protect the lives and belonging of the people. All these are sufficient proof, claimed by this front page Xinhua commentary, that the Party and the Government are intimately connected with the hearts of the people in the disaster region. Such rapid response has demonstrated to the people the full-hearted determination toward the rescue effort and the deep-affection toward its people by the Party and the Government. This also show-cased the powerful social mobilizing ability of the socialist county, said the article.

Source: Xinhua, May 12, 2008
http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-05/12/content_8154338.htm

Media Ordered to Play Correct Propaganda Roles during Earthquake Crisis

All news and media agencies must strictly follow the Party guideline, firmly control the correct direction of public opinion, emphasize the positive propaganda, stimulate unity and stability, and provide powerful moral support for the earthquake rescue efforts. These are the propaganda directives from the Standing Politburo of Central Party Committee passing down by Li Changchun, a standing member of the Politburo, during an internal teleconference for nationwide propaganda departments. The teleconference, held earlier today, also calls for maximum effort to promote the images of the Party Central Committee and State Council for their extreme concerns and executive decisions to protect the safety of the people in the disaster-hit areas. It also emphasized the need to promote the heroic rescue efforts by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Armed Police, and Public Security Police.

Source: Xinhua, May 13, 2008
http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-05/13/content_8162344.htm

Sichuan Government Dismissed an Earthquake Warning Inquiry as Rumor

On May 9, 2008, three days before the earthquake in Sichuan Province occurred, Sichuan government in its website posted an article reporting that the Earthquake Bureau in Aba Prefecture successfully quelled an earthquake rumor. The article revealed that the bureau received a telephone inquiry asking if it is true that an earthquake was about to occur. The local government immediately identified the source of the rumor and clarified the rumor was a misunderstanding of a telephone conference about geological disasters. The article was removed after the earthquake happened but the picture was captured and circulated on the Internet.

Source: Boxun, May 12, 2008
http://peacehall.com/news/gb/china/2008/05/200805121812.shtml

China Establishes Large Commercial Aircraft Enterprise

Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China,Ltd. (CACC) announces its formal kick-off on May 11 in Shanghiai, Xinhua reports. The company is approved by the State Council and is owned by the State. The new company has an equity of 19 billion yuan (US$2.71 billion) It is responsible for the development and manufacture of large commercial aircrafts. Zhang Dejiang, deputy premier and member of politic-bureau, attended the opening ceremony.

Source: Xinhua, May 11, 2008
http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-05/11/content_8144814.htm

An Analysis Report on China’s Future Risks

It is an article published on the website of Dajun Center for Economic Observation and Study based in Beijing. In the article, the author lists future risks posed to China. The conclusion of the article points out, “China has three-key major risks. First, the blind spot in China’s political wisdom is expanding; second, China lacks a system to make plans to handle risks; third, China lacks the ability of flexible and dynamic management.” [1]

An Analysis Report on China’s Future Risks

Like all other countries, China is also facing many risks.  It’s only that different countries face different risks on account of each of their own conditions. As a whole, the world is a place full of risks. The history of all countries tells us however many risks there are, however many opportunities there are. The key is how to foresee, understand and manage the risks. I believe, the unpredictable risks are often deeply hidden under a safe and smooth surface, thus becoming a blind spot of human wisdom in this society. Therefore, usually we have no way to detect that trap right in front of us beforehand. From this perspective, the only approach for risk prevention is to try to minimize the blind spot, and try our best to turn risk into an opportunity for the development of the society.

The only approach to manage risks is to exert one’s utmost effort to do our best today and will be able to handle what may happen tomorrow.

I.  The Political Risks

China’s Major Political Risks Are:

1.    The Blind Spot in Our Political Wisdom.  For this risk lies in a place where it is   beyond our political wisdom, it is the biggest as well as the most dangerous one.  That’s why I list it as the primary risk. The only way to resolve the issue of the blind spot in our political wisdom is to train us ourselves to use the diverse- parallel-logic pattern, characterized by a divergent-logic system and the closed-
circle reasoning. Its key is the programmed-logic and verification.
 
2.    The multitudes of different theories have imposed a sweeping threat to the Mao ideology.  The loss of the spiritual elements among the majority of people has brought tremendous risk to China’s political system. Such a risk is the most serious internal trauma to the Chinese political stability, for what it has brought about is the deterioration of the fundamental values in the society; as a result, people are at lost as to by what standard they should make choices.  Please note that Mao’s ideology is not only an ideology, it is also a methodology and theory of knowledge. In addition, it is spiritual; that is, it is the spiritual belief of the Chinese people; it is the spiritual destiny of the people in China.
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3.    All kinds of overseas forces infiltrate into China by setting up different types of foundations. On one hand, they sponsor their respective spokespersons to advocate their political ideologies; on the other hand, they infiltrate into all levels in the society, with a direct or an indirect impact on political decision making or planning.

4.    All antagonist forces at home and abroad launch a series of activities to separate China.

5.    Officials are generally corrupted; the people, cruelly oppressed; complaints and hatred accumulating with emotional conflicts from all over the land;

6.    The political power, turned into capitalists, and the new elite with private assets lead to the systematic problems for the Central government to tackle;

7.    The gap between the rich and the poor has widened. The differences between the different regions have also come to an extreme;

8.    Conflicts between the capitalists and the labor force;

As a matter of fact, the economic risks listed below should also be categorized as part of political risks, because the economic problems are all political problems at a fundamental level when we look at it as a domestic issue. In the eyes of the international community, foreign powers would view these problems as their opportunity to gain interests, as a result of hegemony ideology.
 

II. The Economic Risks

9.    Risks in financial industry;

10. Long-term risks brought about by enterprises purchased by foreign funds;

11. Spokespersons for domestic and foreign capitalists lobby and infiltrate decision-makers, influencing or misleading the decision-making;

12.    Risks in stock market;

13.    Risks in real estate market;

14.     Concerted actions of groups with common interests;
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III. Risks between the Mainland and Taiwan

15.  The “Taiwan Independence” force strives to make Taiwan a member of the U.N. and advocates public vote. If the Mainland government does not take a clear and firm stance, Taiwan people will likely get into an irrational state. Therefore, Chinese government must take a clear and decisive stance towards those who advocates “Taiwan Independence,” leaving them no room for negotiation, confining Taiwan people into a rational scope. At the same time, we are informing the U.S. government that any supportive act, assisting Taiwan gain independence will have a serious consequence. This is because Chinese people will duly punish those who support “Taiwan Independence” to defend our dignity. If we do not resolve the Taiwan issue well, the adversary forces in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Tibet, and Xinjiang, will all use their wild imagination to make troubles, bringing disaster to our society.

IV. Risks Lying in the Conflict between the U.S. and China

16. There is only conflict between the U.S. and China; there is no friendship to speak of between us, for the U.S. society is operated under the rules depicted by businessmen. How much gain there would be is the only criterion the U.S. society uses to make decisions. Social justice and moral values are the cards the U.S. plays only when it tries to gain profits when dealing with international issues. Therefore, the U.S. will not stay silent when China is making rapid progress, simply because it wants to maintain its position as the sole hegemony, so as to gain more profits in the international community. The weakest point of the U.S. lies in its interests. In order to achieve its goal in attaining interests, the U.S. can resort to any means. It is only a matter of by what means and to what extent the Americans would go, based on their judgment of the price they need to pay and the interests they can gain. Therefore, in terms of the relationship between the U.S. and China, if we fail to fully take advantage of its weakness and simply sacrifice the interests on our part, the Americans would go ahead and take more advantage from us.

I believe that Mao took the right approach in dealing with Sino-U.S. relationship. He said, “You hammer down a nail at my vital point (Mao is referring to Taiwan,) I strangle your weak point and never loosen my hand.” His right strategy led to the establishment of diplomatic relations between the U.S. and China, as well as Americans learning to dance the “loyalty” steps. (Translator’s note: The “loyalty dance” is a dance showing absolute loyalty to Mao.)

V. The Risks in Science, Technology and Culture

Today’s world is full of competitions in science and technology.  It is said: The country that has the key technology will be the superpower and gain more interests. It is an indisputable fact that no one can change it. If we are determined to change our current situation, the only path is to improve the research in science and technology, mastering more key techniques. China has taken a detour in decision-making in science and technology; as a result, we lag far behind international society. We must stay alert not to make the same mistakes again.
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The second competition is cultural. The key element of culture is the spirit of majorities. That is, only if the culture represents the desire and aspiration of the majority of people in the world, can it be competitive in the international communities. It will have the power to attract and unite more people. The failure of the U.S. is a result of its constant pursue of more interests. Democracy and freedom is only a card the U.S. plays to gain interests. China is very weak in being creative and innovative in cultural development. Inside China, our culture lacks the power to unite all Chinese citizens; outside China, our culture is not attractive enough. It is caused by the loss of spiritual elements among the majority of people and they only pursue sensational satisfaction and utilitarianism.

Therefore, China must change this status as soon as possible, striving to become a leading power and a strong nation in cultural innovation.
 

The Conclusion

We have listed a number of risks. In actuality, China has three-key major risks. First, the blind spot in China’s political wisdom is expanding; second, China lacks a system to make plans to handle risks; third, China lacks the ability of flexible and dynamic management. The key to making efficient plans to handle risks is the high-level unison and synchronization. The only way to achieve this is holding responsible persons liable.

After the Communist Party took power, China’s history has shown us that without a system to hold officials liable for their conducts, these officials who live in an environment wherein the majority of people have lost their spiritual pursuit, will not have any sense of responsibility. For example, Chinese officials refuse to be subjected to any supervisory control; it is a manifestation of their strong tendency to shift responsibilities and unwillingness to fulfill their job responsibilities.

The reason for China’s lack of the ability of flexible and dynamic management is the blind spot in our wisdom. We fail to realize the key to management is to satisfy the aspiration and pursuit of majority of people; we fail to see that social conflicts are the inner driving force for societal development; we fail to see that the best approach to solve the conflicts is not to suppress or repress these conflicts, but to solve these problems in a democratic system, building a platform for people from all levels of society to appeal for their rights peacefully. Democracy is not only a spiritual belief. It is also the best way to govern a society.

Endnote:
[1] Prepared by Tian Zhongguo of the Dajun Center for Economic Observation and Study, Beijing, on February 18, 2008, (http://www.dajun.com.cn/minjzk.htm)

April CPI Up 8.5 Percent; Inflation Expectations On the Rise

National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced on May 12 that April CPI were up 8.5 percent compared with the same period last year and was a 0.2 points increase from March. Food price increase was 22.1 percent, the highest of all.  The increase came after 8.1 percent increase in April PPI, Producers’ Price Index, among which crude oil up by 37.9 percent, coal mining and washing up by 20.9 percent. Peng Zhilong, Deputy Director General of the Department of National Accounts at the NBS said the Inflation expectations are rising and would be hard to bring CPI down to the targeted 4.8 percent in the short run.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China spoke at Shanghai Lu Jia Zhui Forum on May 10 admitting “anti-inflation is the biggest concern in China’s currency policy.”

Source:
National Bureau of Statistic of China, May 12, 2008 http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjfx/jdfx/t20080512_402479287.htm
Xinhua, May 12, 2008
http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2008-05/12/content_8149854.htm
Xinhua, May 10, 2008
http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2008-05/10/content_8140766.htm