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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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Number of First Marriages in China Falls Below 12 Million, a 37-year low

According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the number of first marriages in 2021 was 11.578 million, down 708,000 from the previous year. This is the first time in many years that the number of first marriages in China has fallen below 12 million, a new low since 1985.

There are many reasons contributing to the continuous decline in the number of first marriages, including the decline in the number of those of a marriageable age, the postponement of the age of a first marriage, economic pressure, and changes in the views toward marriage. In recent years, the average age of a first marriage among young people in China has been significantly postponed to 28.67 years, an increase of 3.78 years from the average age of the first marriage in 2010 (24.89 years).

An official of China’s National Health Commission said that the vast majority of the young population grow up and work in cities and towns, have more years of education, and face more competitive pressure for employment, all of which make the phenomenon of delayed marriage and childbearing very prominent.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), December 2, 2022
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202212020195.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China-built Rail Project in Indonesia Faces Criticism

The 142-km high-speed rail connecting Indonesia’s capital Jakarta with another large city Bandung, part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, has faced numerous accusations from Indonesians during the project’s closing stage.

In August of this year, KCIC, the consortium building the railway, requested the Indonesian Ministry of Transportation  to extend the concession period from 50 to 80 years. The company’s president, Dwiyana Slamet Riyadi, explained on December 8 before the Fifth Committee of the Indonesian Parliament, which is in charge of transportation and public works, that there had been a significant change in the project’s business environment.

However Lasarus, S.Sos., an Indonesian Parliament member and chair of the Committee, is skeptical about the extension of the concession rights, according to detik.com, an Indonesia news website. He pointed out that many people complained about the project, arguing that since the business environment is not good, no more public expenditures should be used on it.

The news was picked up by major media in Indonesia that day and drew widespread criticism. Muhammad Said Didu, a former senior government official, posted on his personal Twitter account that KCIC had deceived Indonesians in five aspects. China claimed that it was cheaper than Japan’s high-speed rail construction proposal, that the project was feasible, that it did not require government guarantees, that it did not tie up public coffers, and that the operating rights were extended from the 50-year requirement to 80 years. The post received thousands of retweets and likes.

According to Chinese official media, construction of the railway officially began in January 2016 and was set to be completed in the second half of 2019, with the concession running for a total of 50 years from May 2019, with a total cost of US$5.135 billion negotiated between China and Indonesia. However, Detik.com noted that the total investment for the project was later renegotiated to US$6 billion. On top of that, the Indonesian Financial Supervisory Authority (BPKP) assessed that the construction cost exceeded the budget by US$1.49 billion, while the Chinese side admitted to only US$980 million, a disagreement of up to US$500 million.

An Australian engineer told Radio Free Asia, “There is a widespread issue of underbidding in China’s construction contracts in Asian, African and Latin American countries, as well as in Australia’s iron ore projects, followed by constant requests for more money during the operations. This has often resulted in debt traps, as in the case of Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port, which has put a big financial burden on the country.”

Source: Radio Free Asia, December 12, 2022
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/fy-12122022130743.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Taiwan’s Executive Yuan to Coordinate the Four Government Branches to Ban Tiktok

A Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislator pointed out during a hearing on December 12 that, after the Ministry of Digital Affairs banned the use of Tiktok in the public sector starting from December 5, only the Executive Yuan and its subordinate ministries are actually subject to this rule, while the other four branches of Taiwanese government can still use the app. Although Tiktok has been banned from public sector computers, it is not banned on cell phones for government use.

The Executive Yuan’s spokesperson admitted that, although the scope of the ban includes cell phones for government use, banning the app alone may not be effective enough. There should be some better methods, such as some technical processing in the networks of the public sector so that civil servants do not have access to the app. The spokesperson also pointed out that if a public servant violates the regulations, there will be a corresponding punishment.

The Secretary General of the Executive Yuan, Li Meng-yen, responded that, in addition to prohibiting civil servants in the ministries under the Executive Yuan from using these platforms, they will also coordinate with the other four branches, the Legislative Yuan, the Judicial Yuan, the Examination Yuan and the Control Yuan, to establish the ban.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao (Singapore), December 12, 2022
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/china/story20221212-1342718

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Lianhe Zaobao: Polish House of Representatives Visited Taiwan

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that a cross-party Polish House of Representatives delegation visited Taiwan. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen said to the delegation that Taiwan, Poland, and Ukraine are all on the front line of an authoritarian expansion, and the people of Taiwan identify with Ukraine’s determination to defend democracy and freedom. They look forward to working with like-minded partners to assist Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.

Tsai also said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had a major impact on the global democratic order. Poland is the current rotating president of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe this year. It is also actively leading countries to sanction Russia and provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Waldemar Andzel, chairman of the Poland-Taiwan Congressional Group, said that when Taiwan faced pressure from Mainland China, Poland was very supportive of Taiwan’s position. Poland and Taiwan have the same views and have similar histories. Taiwan donated over US$11 million as Ukraine faces aggression from Russia. Andzel hoped that Taiwan-Poland’s economic cooperation can go further, and he welcomes Taiwanese manufacturers, such as semiconductor factories to set up factories in Poland. Taiwan and Poland’s cooperation in higher education is very extensive as well. Andzel also expected that, in the future, direct flights can be established between Warsaw and Taipei.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, December 6, 2022
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/china/story20221206-1340778?amp

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

U.S. Manufacturing Orders in China Declined by 40 Percent

Popular Taiwanese news site TechNews recently reported that U.S. manufacturing orders in China fell 40 percent. The Global Logistics Group expects Chinese factories to close two weeks earlier than usual for the Chinese New Year due to reduced demand. It’s a relentless collapse, with Asian container rates continuing to fall, leaving ocean carriers with record low vessel utilization and more empty sailings than ever before. Supply chain research company Project44 also stated that, since the end of the summer of 2022, the number of TEUs shipped from China to the United States has dropped significantly and the total container volume of ships dropped by 21 percent from August to November this year alone. The Global Shipping Company HLS forecast a further 2.5 percent decline in container volume in 2023 and a nearly 5 to6 percent increase in capacity, continuing to have a negative impact on freight rates in 2023. That is coupled with economic uncertainty and geopolitical concerns. International transportation supplier OL USA expressed the worry that overall business volume and order flows in Asia continue to be subdued as carriers have cancelled more vessels, with no apparent uptick heading into the Chinese New Year. U.S. logistics managers are bracing for early January delays in Chinese deliveries as container ships are dropping the number of sailings. In addition, ocean carriers are expecting delays.

Source: TechNews, December 15, 2022

美國製造訂單下降 40%，中國工廠提前兩週放春假

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources US-China Relations

Caixin: China’s Service Industry PMI Dropped along with Manufacturing PMI

Caixin just released its official Chinese PMI numbers for November. The Caixin PMI is a well-respected economic indicator monitored globally by financial institutions. Along with China’s manufacturing PMI recording at 49.4, continuing the contraction since August, China’s service industry PMI recorded at 46.7, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from October. This figure has been below the critical point for three consecutive months. It represents a new low since June. Both service production and demand contracted for the third consecutive month in November. Also, the employment index fell to the lowest level since November 2005 when this sub-item was first created. The survey shows that the government’s Zero Covid policy has restricted travel and prevented personnel from returning to work. At the same time, the decline in business demand has also actively tightened employment. Driven by the rising costs of raw materials, transportation and labor, among other items, the costs in the service industry are still increasing. Under the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations, the employment index has been at a low level for a long time. In the meantime, the National Bureau of Statistics also released its official Manufacturing PMI/ i. It was at at 48.0, and its official Service Industry PMI was at 45.1. Both Showed accelerated a contraction of production and business activities.

Sources:
(1) Caixin, December 5, 2022
https://pmi.caixin.com/2022-12-05/101974317.html
(2) Central Government Official Site, December 1, 2022
http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2022-12/01/content_5729754.htm

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China Boosts Coal Production and Sales for Electricity Generation

The northern region of China has been affected by the recent large-scale cold wave. It has thus entered the peak period of winter heating. The southern region has also increased the purchase of thermal coal due to weather that includes low temperatures, rain and snow.
Global Times reported that, according to the China Coal Industry Association, China’s coal production and its sales have both increased since November. It was reported that the Ordos municipality of Inner Mongolia has made every effort to promote the release of coal production capacity this year, with a total of 46 new coal mines entering production and an annual increase of 95.7 million tons of output. At the same time, 80 percent of the original production capacity and 100 percent of the new production capacity will be included in the agreement of guaranteed supply. As of the end of November, the utilization rate of 442 key coal mines in Inner Mongolia (autonomous region), Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces exceeded 82 percent, an increase of 0.6 percent from the end of October.
Source: Global Times, December 6, 2022                                                                                                                                                    https://tech.huanqiu.com/article/4AlwVDc1Tr4
Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Global Times Editorial: Taiwan Semiconductor Has Changed to “U.S. Semiconductor”

China’s state-run media Global Times published an editorial accusing the U.S. of breaking the international rule and forcibly taking Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) to the United States. The article also used the term “TSMC of China’s Taiwan province.” Below is an excerpt from the article:

 

“On December 6, TSMC held a ‘relocation ceremony’ for its first factory in Arizona. Washington ‘gave a measure of credit’ to this event. U.S. President Joe Biden led Commerce Secretary Raimondo to visit the new factory in Arizona. He also stated in a high-profile speech that day that what happened in Arizona is very important to the country and to the world. However, no matter how Washington plays it, this will be a landmark event [n a dark turning point in the history of the development of the global semiconductor industry].

 

“Zhang Zhongmou, the founder of TSMC, said at the ceremony that day, ‘Globalization is almost dead and free trade is almost dead.’ Although he may have meant something else, this sentence came from the founder of a highly globalized leading company. It is a meaningful and precise footnote to the event and to what U.S. President Biden said in his speech at the ceremony, ‘Guys, American manufacturing is back,’ It is a huge irony. Why does this show that the American manufacturing industry is‘back,’ Isn’t this TSMC, which has been developing well in the Taiwan Province in China?

 

“No matter how the U.S. and the Democratic Progressive Party  (a Taiwanese nationalist and centre-left political party in the Republic of China) authorities cover it up, it will not change the nature of this matter. That is, the U.S. has forcefully taken the high-quality enterprise from China’s Taiwan, which occupies an important position in the world’s core high-tech industries, to the United States. To welcome the arrival of TSMC, Washington proffered a wealth of compliments, but from the beginning to the end there was only the core of “American interests,” and there was almost no mention of whether the two sides could win-win or whether they would contribute to the global chip industry.

 

“This is also a wake-up call to the world, and we need to ring the alarm bells louder. The United States is not only doing this to TSMC. It can also use this as an example to attract manufacturing back to the United States, and continue to put pressure on chip companies in other countries that are still hesitant. For Washington, whether it is economically or politically, this is a deal that is sure to make a profit without losing money. The United States used brute force to force its way into the world originally dominated by the laws of the market, just like a bull breaking into a china shop, disrupting rules and order. If it is true, as Zhang Zhongmou said, ‘Globalization is almost dead and free trade is almost dead.’ Then the United States is the culprit according to clear evidence.”

Source: Global Times, December 8, 2022                                                                                                                                                  https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/4AnFGHFue28

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations