It is an article published on the website of Dajun Center for Economic Observation and Study based in Beijing. In the article, the author lists future risks posed to China. The conclusion of the article points out, “China has three-key major risks. First, the blind spot in China’s political wisdom is expanding; second, China lacks a system to make plans to handle risks; third, China lacks the ability of flexible and dynamic management.” [1]

Like all other countries, China is also facing many risks.  It’s only that different countries face different risks on account of each of their own conditions. As a whole, the world is a place full of risks. The history of all countries tells us however many risks there are, however many opportunities there are. The key is how to foresee, understand and manage the risks. I believe, the unpredictable risks are often deeply hidden under a safe and smooth surface, thus becoming a blind spot of human wisdom in this society. Therefore, usually we have no way to detect that trap right in front of us beforehand. From this perspective, the only approach for risk prevention is to try to minimize the blind spot, and try our best to turn risk into an opportunity for the development of the society.

The only approach to manage risks is to exert one’s utmost effort to do our best today and will be able to handle what may happen tomorrow.

China’s Major Political Risks Are:

1.    The Blind Spot in Our Political Wisdom.  For this risk lies in a place where it is   beyond our political wisdom, it is the biggest as well as the most dangerous one.  That’s why I list it as the primary risk. The only way to resolve the issue of the blind spot in our political wisdom is to train us ourselves to use the diverse- parallel-logic pattern, characterized by a divergent-logic system and the closed-
circle reasoning. Its key is the programmed-logic and verification.
 
2.    The multitudes of different theories have imposed a sweeping threat to the Mao ideology.  The loss of the spiritual elements among the majority of people has brought tremendous risk to China’s political system. Such a risk is the most serious internal trauma to the Chinese political stability, for what it has brought about is the deterioration of the fundamental values in the society; as a result, people are at lost as to by what standard they should make choices.  Please note that Mao’s ideology is not only an ideology, it is also a methodology and theory of knowledge. In addition, it is spiritual; that is, it is the spiritual belief of the Chinese people; it is the spiritual destiny of the people in China.
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3.    All kinds of overseas forces infiltrate into China by setting up different types of foundations. On one hand, they sponsor their respective spokespersons to advocate their political ideologies; on the other hand, they infiltrate into all levels in the society, with a direct or an indirect impact on political decision making or planning.

4.    All antagonist forces at home and abroad launch a series of activities to separate China.

5.    Officials are generally corrupted; the people, cruelly oppressed; complaints and hatred accumulating with emotional conflicts from all over the land;

6.    The political power, turned into capitalists, and the new elite with private assets lead to the systematic problems for the Central government to tackle;

7.    The gap between the rich and the poor has widened. The differences between the different regions have also come to an extreme;

8.    Conflicts between the capitalists and the labor force;

As a matter of fact, the economic risks listed below should also be categorized as part of political risks, because the economic problems are all political problems at a fundamental level when we look at it as a domestic issue. In the eyes of the international community, foreign powers would view these problems as their opportunity to gain interests, as a result of hegemony ideology.
 

9.    Risks in financial industry;

10. Long-term risks brought about by enterprises purchased by foreign funds;

11. Spokespersons for domestic and foreign capitalists lobby and infiltrate decision-makers, influencing or misleading the decision-making;

12.    Risks in stock market;

13.    Risks in real estate market;

14.     Concerted actions of groups with common interests;
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15.  The “Taiwan Independence” force strives to make Taiwan a member of the U.N. and advocates public vote. If the Mainland government does not take a clear and firm stance, Taiwan people will likely get into an irrational state. Therefore, Chinese government must take a clear and decisive stance towards those who advocates “Taiwan Independence,” leaving them no room for negotiation, confining Taiwan people into a rational scope. At the same time, we are informing the U.S. government that any supportive act, assisting Taiwan gain independence will have a serious consequence. This is because Chinese people will duly punish those who support “Taiwan Independence” to defend our dignity. If we do not resolve the Taiwan issue well, the adversary forces in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Tibet, and Xinjiang, will all use their wild imagination to make troubles, bringing disaster to our society.

16. There is only conflict between the U.S. and China; there is no friendship to speak of between us, for the U.S. society is operated under the rules depicted by businessmen. How much gain there would be is the only criterion the U.S. society uses to make decisions. Social justice and moral values are the cards the U.S. plays only when it tries to gain profits when dealing with international issues. Therefore, the U.S. will not stay silent when China is making rapid progress, simply because it wants to maintain its position as the sole hegemony, so as to gain more profits in the international community. The weakest point of the U.S. lies in its interests. In order to achieve its goal in attaining interests, the U.S. can resort to any means. It is only a matter of by what means and to what extent the Americans would go, based on their judgment of the price they need to pay and the interests they can gain. Therefore, in terms of the relationship between the U.S. and China, if we fail to fully take advantage of its weakness and simply sacrifice the interests on our part, the Americans would go ahead and take more advantage from us.

I believe that Mao took the right approach in dealing with Sino-U.S. relationship. He said, “You hammer down a nail at my vital point (Mao is referring to Taiwan,) I strangle your weak point and never loosen my hand.” His right strategy led to the establishment of diplomatic relations between the U.S. and China, as well as Americans learning to dance the “loyalty” steps. (Translator’s note: The “loyalty dance” is a dance showing absolute loyalty to Mao.)

Today’s world is full of competitions in science and technology.  It is said: The country that has the key technology will be the superpower and gain more interests. It is an indisputable fact that no one can change it. If we are determined to change our current situation, the only path is to improve the research in science and technology, mastering more key techniques. China has taken a detour in decision-making in science and technology; as a result, we lag far behind international society. We must stay alert not to make the same mistakes again.
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The second competition is cultural. The key element of culture is the spirit of majorities. That is, only if the culture represents the desire and aspiration of the majority of people in the world, can it be competitive in the international communities. It will have the power to attract and unite more people. The failure of the U.S. is a result of its constant pursue of more interests. Democracy and freedom is only a card the U.S. plays to gain interests. China is very weak in being creative and innovative in cultural development. Inside China, our culture lacks the power to unite all Chinese citizens; outside China, our culture is not attractive enough. It is caused by the loss of spiritual elements among the majority of people and they only pursue sensational satisfaction and utilitarianism.

Therefore, China must change this status as soon as possible, striving to become a leading power and a strong nation in cultural innovation.
 

We have listed a number of risks. In actuality, China has three-key major risks. First, the blind spot in China’s political wisdom is expanding; second, China lacks a system to make plans to handle risks; third, China lacks the ability of flexible and dynamic management. The key to making efficient plans to handle risks is the high-level unison and synchronization. The only way to achieve this is holding responsible persons liable.

After the Communist Party took power, China’s history has shown us that without a system to hold officials liable for their conducts, these officials who live in an environment wherein the majority of people have lost their spiritual pursuit, will not have any sense of responsibility. For example, Chinese officials refuse to be subjected to any supervisory control; it is a manifestation of their strong tendency to shift responsibilities and unwillingness to fulfill their job responsibilities.

The reason for China’s lack of the ability of flexible and dynamic management is the blind spot in our wisdom. We fail to realize the key to management is to satisfy the aspiration and pursuit of majority of people; we fail to see that social conflicts are the inner driving force for societal development; we fail to see that the best approach to solve the conflicts is not to suppress or repress these conflicts, but to solve these problems in a democratic system, building a platform for people from all levels of society to appeal for their rights peacefully. Democracy is not only a spiritual belief. It is also the best way to govern a society.

Endnote:
[1] Prepared by Tian Zhongguo of the Dajun Center for Economic Observation and Study, Beijing, on February 18, 2008, (http://www.dajun.com.cn/minjzk.htm)