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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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Japanese Beauty Brand BAUM Exits China amid Broader Foreign Business Exodus

Japanese cosmetics brand BAUM, owned by Shiseido, announced its withdrawal from the Chinese market. This move is part of a broader trend of multinational companies leaving China in recent years, extending from manufacturing to the beauty industry.

BAUM’s Tmall flagship store will stop accepting new orders from July 10, and its concept store in Shanghai has already closed. Shiseido cited “strategic adjustment” as the reason for this decision.

Experts attribute this trend to various factors, including China’s “dynamic zero-COVID” policy, difficulties faced by foreign businesses, and the inability to repatriate profits easily. The recent controversy over Japan’s nuclear wastewater discharge has also led to a boycott of Japanese beauty products in China.

Despite these challenges, some Chinese officials continue to welcome foreign investment. The Vice Minister of Industry and Information Technology stated that China has lifted all restrictions on foreign investment in manufacturing.

However, critics argue that the deteriorating business environment in China is driving foreign companies to relocate to Southeast Asia, India, and even back to their home countries. This exodus includes major corporations like Samsung, Philips, Tesco, Yahoo, Canon, Lotte, and Sony.

The trend reflects broader concerns about China’s economic policies and international relations, potentially impacting its position in global supply chains and its appeal as a market for foreign businesses.

Source: Radio Free Asia, July 8, 2024
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/ql2-shiseido-baum-withdraw-china-07082024065833.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Hong Kong Strengthens “Patriotic Education” with New Initiatives and Programs

Guangming Daily reported that China’s “Patriotic Education Law” came into effect on January 1, 2024. In April, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) government established a Patriotic Education Working Group. Recently, Hong Kong has carried out a variety of patriotic education activities.

In May, the Hong Kong government announced that the “Hong Kong Museum of Coastal Defense” would be reestablished under a new name: the “Hong Kong Museum of Anti-Japanese War and Coastal Defense.” The aim of this change is “is to help visitors gain a deeper understanding of the history of the anti-Japanese War (WWII), appreciate the close ties between Hong Kong and China, and enhance visitors’ sense of national identity, belonging, and pride.”

The government pushed out new middle school curriculum guidelines on the subject of Chinese history: the “Hong Kong National Security Education Curriculum Framework.” The national security education curriculum frameworks pertains to 15 subjects. All elementary and middle schools are required to fly the national flag on every school day, on New Year’s Day, on the Hong Kong SAR Establishment Day, and on National Day. Schools are also required to hold a flag-raising ceremony once a week. Elementary and middle schools are instructed to organize national education activities on major holidays. The General Studies subject at the elementary schools is to include content on national identity and Chinese culture. Chinese history has become a compulsory subject in middle school. The high school’s Citizenship and Social Development subject is to closely align with China’s development.

The Guangming Daily reported that universities and middle and high schools in Hong Kong are actively engaging in various exchange and internship programs in mainland China “to help Hong Kong youth gain a better understanding of the motherland and enhance their sense of affinity towards the country.” The Hong Kong Joint Publishing Group, including Hong Kong Sanlian Bookstore, Hong Kong Zhonghua Book Company, and the Hong Kong Commercial Press, publishes approximately 2,000 new books in Chinese and English each year. Among these, hundreds of publications are on national education, many of which have won prestigious publishing awards both domestically and internationally. For example, they published a series of books of “How Much Do You Know About the National Flag, National Emblem, and National Anthem,” the series of “My Home in China,” and the picture book “Our Country, Our Security.”

Source: Guangming Daily, June 30, 2024
https://politics.gmw.cn/2024-06/30/content_37411267.htm

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

China Expands “Big External Propaganda” with Local International Communication Centers

Since 2023, China’s “big external propaganda” (大外宣) activities (a series of propaganda campaigns aiming to project China’s voice and image overseas) have been rapidly shifting from the purview of the central government to a responsibility of China’s local governments. As of now, China has established 23 provincial-level international communication centers, in Shenzhen, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Hebei, etc… The latest additions include the “Zhejiang International Communication Center” established on May 31 and the “Tianjin International Communication Center” established in early June this year. According to the official newspaper Tianjin Daily, the Tianjin center “will send more than ten filming teams to multiple countries and regions, using cameras and writing to showcase Tianjin’s core role in building a community with a shared future for humanity, co-constructing the ‘Belt and Road,’ and to serve the main diplomatic strategy of the country.”

An article titled “Efforts to Strengthen the Development of International Communication Capabilities and Systems” on Qiushi Journal in November 2023 pointed out that these international communication centers, “by displaying local characteristics,” has become a “new force” in China’s international communication. The ” Jiangsu International Communication Center” has set up channels in seven languages on overseas mainstream social platforms such as X Platform, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube, which are blocked in China. The director of the Hubei Communication Center stated that the Hubei center has formulated a “one place, one strategy” approach: “For example, we focus on football-related content to Brazil and Argentina and food and emotional programs to Southeast Asia and Italy.” The “South Asia and Southeast Asia Regional International Communication Center” in Yunan Province is “the only media institution in (China) targeting South Asia and Southeast Asia.” The center publishes journals in Burmese, Thai, Khmer, and Lao, maintains websites in seven languages: Burmese, Lao, Thai, Khmer, English, Vietnamese, and Chinese, and writes on social media platforms with regional languages.

A public diplomacy scholar in the UK told VOA that China’s central government-level communication institute like China Global Television Network (CGTN) now seem to increasingly focus on political news, leaving non-sensitive and non-conflictual topics to the local international communication centers, letting them focus more on culture, tourism, history, and other areas. Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told VOA that China’s provincial international communication centers are just one of many attempts in Beijing’s “big external propaganda” efforts. “If one doesn’t work, China has many other options.”

Source: VOA, June 19, 2024
https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-local-international-communication-center/7661097.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

China Expand EV Presence in Brazil

Chinese car manufacturers are increasing their presence in the Central and South American markets with electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHVs). From January to April 2024, sales of new Chinese cars reached 48,000 units, eight times the number from the same period last year. Data released by the Brazilian Electric Vehicle Association shows that in 2023, sales of electric vehicles (EVs, PHVs, and hybrid vehicles (HVs)) increased by 91 percent compared to 2022, reaching a record high of 94,000 units. The top five sellers include three Chinese companies – BYD, Chery Automobile, and Great Wall Motors. In April 2024, those three manufacturers accounted for 7 percent of new car sales in Brazil.

In March 2024, BYD announced that it would double its investment from the original plan to 5.5 billion reais in its Brazilian production base. This will be Brazil’s first pure EV factory, expected to start production as early as the end of 2024, gradually reaching full production capacity of 300,000 units per year. BYD also plans to double the number of its sales showrooms in Brazil to 200 by the end of 2024.

Source: Nikkei, May 24, 2024
https://zh.cn.nikkei.com/china/ccompany/55569-2024-05-24-05-00-57.html?start=1

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

CBN: Indonesia to Impose High Tariffs on Certain Categories of Imported Products

China Business Network (CBN) recently reported that, Indonesian Trade Minister Zulkifli Hasan said not long ago that Indonesia will impose safeguard tariffs of 100 percent to 200 percent on imported products ranging from footwear to ceramics and restart plans to protect domestic industries. This new tariff policy will take effect after the relevant regulations are finalized, and may also affect the import of clothing, textiles, and cosmetics. According to data from Statistics Indonesia, Indonesia mainly imports clothing and clothing accessories from China, Vietnam and Bangladesh. The Indonesian government said that it would first launch two protective measures for textiles and textile products, namely the safeguard import tax (BMTP) and the anti-dumping import tariff (BMAD), to protect the local industry from the surge in imported textiles.

Multiple Chinese import/export businesses commented that, if high tariffs are imposed, it will obviously slow down the trend of purchasing directly from Chinese export companies. Indonesia has recently revealed that one of the main reasons to have additional safeguard tariffs is to keep the American orders for domestic companies. Nowadays more and more Chinese companies have begun to build factories locally in Indonesia. Analysts expressed the belief that, with the global reorganization of supply chains, Chinese companies going overseas is an increasingly important trend. For Chinese entrepreneurs, on one hand, they need the courage to go out, and on the other hand, they need the necessary new knowledge and skillsets.

Source: CBN, July 1, 2024
https://m.yicai.com/news/102173785.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

UDN: Amazon E-Book Store Officially Withdraws from China

United Daily News (UDN), one of the primary Taiwanese news groups, recently reported that, Amazon China announced on its official website on June 30 that the Kindle China e-book store has ceased operations on June 30, 2023, and will stop cloud download services on June 30, 2024. After that, undownloaded e-books will not be available for download. Already downloaded e-books will remain readable on the local Kindle device. Kindle customer service will also remain only until June 30, 2024. After the news of Kindle’s complete withdrawal from the Chinese market came out, many Mainland China netizens expressed regrets on “yet another foreign investor leaves China.”

Amazon initially launched Kindle in 2007, setting off a global e-book reading craze. Kindle officially entered the Mainland Chinese market in June 2013. In 2018, the sales of Kindle Readers in China exceeded one million. Amazon announced in 2022 that its e-book business will withdraw from the Chinese Mainland market in three phases.

Source: UDN, July 1, 2024
https://money.udn.com/money/story/5603/8065269

Briefings | | |   Information/Technology US-China Relations

RFI Chinese: Germany Banned VW from Selling Gas Turbine Business to China

Radio France Internationale (RFI) Chinese Edition recently reported that, the German government banned the sale of Volkswagen’s gas turbine business to Chinese companies, citing national security concerns. The deal failed due to the German cabinet approved the ban proposed by the Economics Ministry. The reason is that the potential buyer’s parent company, China State Shipbuilding Corporation (Group), has too close ties with China’s military. Therefore, sales are not allowed under the Foreign Trade Act, which allows the government to ban sales to non-EU countries if it could endanger national security. Volkswagen’s MAN Energy Solutions said it would not seek a new buyer but would stop developing new gas turbines and limit its services to only maintenance.

According to anonymous Chinese sources, the potential buyer – CSICL (China Shipbuilding Industry Company Limited) Longjiang Guanghan Gas Turbine Co. – is part of China State Shipbuilding Corporation’s 703rd Research Institute. Both are Chinese defense suppliers. The 703rd Research Institute is also included in the U.S. list of untrustworthy entities. China wants to modernize its largest Naval fleet in the world. In the future, it could run on gas turbines instead of diesel engines.

Source: RFI Chinese, July 3, 2024
https://tinyurl.com/5ddec9zt

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Socioeconomic Factors Behind the Decline in Marriage and Divorce Rates in China

An article circulated on Internet talked about how poor economic conditions in China have caused Chinese people to “freeze” (i.e. to not to make major life-style changes or life-changing decisions).

In the first quarter of this year, the number of marriage registrations nationwide was 1.969 million pairs, a decrease of 178,000 pairs from the same period in 2023. Meanwhile, the divorce registrations also decreased from 641,000 pairs in the same period last year to 573,000 pairs, a reduction of 68,000 pairs

What has caused the decline in both marriage and divorce rates? According to the article, the reason is the decline in people’s income and assets. In China, the most crucial hurdle preceding marriage is the purchase of an apartment. Usually, the three families (the young couple and both of their parents) pool their savings together to buy the “marriage” apartment. However, nowadays, despite government policies heavily incentivizing house sales (aiming to stimulate the stagnant Chinese housing market), people are not buying houses or apartment units (being afraid that the price will fall later).

As far as divorce is concerned, the issue of how to divide assets is pertinent. Here, too the sluggish housing market is at play; couples are unable to sell their houses at high prices, meaning that dividing up the couple’s assets for a divorce is difficult.

According to the article, the root cause of the “freeze” in social activity among Chinese people is the socioeconomic impact of a sluggish Chinese economy. This pertains to employees in various sectors of the economy:

  • Government Sector Employees: Central and state agencies are carrying out uniform 5 percent reductions in staffing.
  • Private Sector Employment: The Internet, semiconductor, and advanced manufacturing industries are all under pressure. Jobs at high-tech companies, which used to be good for job-hopping, are becoming less secure. The electric vehicle industry may seem promising, but in reality many EV companies face financial trouble; fierce competition makes EV companies lose money. Chinese industrial transformation, the impact of AI, and oversupply of talent will all have long-term impacts.
  • Finance Sector: the industry is experiencing widespread salary cuts.

Source: China News, June 29, 2024
https://news.creaders.net/china/2024/06/29/2747232.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Social Stability