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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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China Times: China Announces Suspension of Talks with U.S. on Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

Major Taiwanese newspaper China Times recently reported that Mainland China is dissatisfied with the United States’ continued arms sales to Taiwan. China just announced that it has suspended negotiations with the United States on nuclear non-proliferation and on arms control issues.

The United States and China held arms control and non-proliferation talks in Washington last year. As of last week, however, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated at a press conference that the United States “has ignored China’s firm opposition by continuing arms sales to Taiwan. This has seriously damaged China’s core interests, undermined political mutual trust between the two sides, and seriously undermined the political atmosphere for the two sides to continue arms control talks.”

The Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it pays close attention to the exchanges and dialogues between the United States and China. The Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs had no comment on the recent statement from Beijing.

Source: China Times, July 18, 2024
https://www.chinatimes.com/cn/realtimenews/20240718002264-260407?chdtv

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

UDN: China Sanctions Six US Companies and Five Executives

United Daily News (UDN), one of the primary Taiwanese news groups, recently reported that, due to dissatisfaction with the U.S. arms sales of attack drones to Taiwan in June, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs just announced it will take countermeasures against six U.S. military companies and five senior executives.

On June 18, the United States announced the sale of two attack drone models to Taiwan, including Switchblade 300 and Altius 600M-V, for a total of US$360.2 million. This is the 15th U.S. arms sale to Taiwan under President Biden. China announced that, according to China’s “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”, for six companies, including Anduril Industries, Maritime Tactical Systems, Pacific Rim Defense, AEVEX Aerospace, LKDAerospace, and Summit Technologies Inc., their movable, immovable, and other types of properties in China will be frozen.

For two top executives of AeroVironment and three senior executives of Anduril, China have frozen their movable, immovable and other types of properties in China. China also prohibited organizations and individuals in China from conducting relevant transactions, cooperation and other activities with these individuals, who will not be issued Chinese visa and are not allowed to enter China (including Hong Kong and Macau).

Source: UDN, July 12, 2024
https://udn.com/news/story/7331/8091885

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs) Gain Market Share in the Middle East

Xinhua reported that Chinese EVs are popular in Middle Eastern countries since those countries are focused on developing the green transportation.

According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China exported 1.2 million new energy vehicles in 2023, an increase of 77.6 percent from 2022. China’s new energy vehicles now account for over 60 percent of the global market. To the Middle East market, China exported 578,100 automobiles in the first ten months of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 32.61 percent; among them, over 110,000 are new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 66.44 percent.

China’s Yutong Bus provided Qatar with 1,002 electric buses for the 2022 Qatar World Cup. These were later integrated into Qatar’s public transportation system. Among the electric buses serving the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, more than half were from Chinese manufacturers such as Yutong, BYD, and King Long. In October 2022, Hongqi electric cars successfully “joined” the Dubai police force, becoming the first electric vehicles in the Dubai police fleet. The Hongqi E-HS9 has now become a favorite among local sheikhs, royal family members, and government officials.

Geely vehicles are sold in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain. BYD has entered the markets of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, and Israel, establishing a leading position for its electric vehicle brand in the Middle East. Other Chinese electric vehicle companies such as Great Wall Motors, BAIC, Changan, XPeng, and Skyworth are also expanding into the Middle East market.

In 2023, Chinese EVs accounted for about 61 percent of the EV market in Israel. This share increased to 68.31 percent in the first half of 2024. In countries such as Jordan and Egypt, sales of Chinese brand EVs are also continuously growing.

Source: Xinhua, July 18, 2024
https://app.xinhuanet.com/news/article.html?articleId=9c0096426aa5ed72eba9f6629fae2619

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Xinhua Removes Article Praising Xi Jinping as a Reformer Amid Speculation and Rumors

On 7/15, the first day of the Third Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) 20th Party Congress, Xinhua News Agency released a special feature titled “Reformer Xi Jinping.” Many media outlets highlighted this title in their coverage, noting that it was the first time the official media referred to Xi Jinping as “reformer (改革家).” The nearly 10,000-word article praises Xi’s commitment to reform, likening him to Deng Xiaoping, who is known as the chief architect of China’s reform and opening-up. It claims that Xi will “lead the entire party and nation on a new journey of further comprehensive deepening of reforms.”

However, starting on the 7/16 (the day after publication), this lengthy “Reformer” article was no longer available on the Xinhua website. Other media linking to or quoting the “Reformer” article have been changed to refer to another article instead. Meanwhile, Ta Kung Pao, a CCP-affiliated media outlet operating in Hong Kong, still has its front-page report on the “Reformer” article.

China observers pointed out that for Xinhua to publish such a lengthy feature, it must have been under the instructions of the General Office of the CCP’s Central Committee; and the designation of “reformer” was clearly meant to position Xi Jinping in a specific light. Now that the article is unavailable, it can only be said that it has been deleted. The reason for the deletion is unclear.

At the same time, there are rumors spreading online that Xi Jinping suffered a stroke during the Third Plenary Session meeting.

Sources:
1. Radio France International, July 17, 2024
https://www.rfi.fr/cn/中国/20240717-官媒捧文-改革家习近平-突下架-有评论忧三中全会出状况
2. Wenxue City, July 16, 2024
https://app.xinhuanet.com/news/article.html?articleId=d1b63946dc0ec93f9132f654cf97be27

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

Lianhe Zaobao: Germany Starts Removing Huawei and ZTE 5G Components

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that the German government has imposed a ban on Chinese telecom equipment giants on national security grounds and will remove Huawei and ZTE components from Germany’s 5G network in two phases over the next five years. The German Interior Ministry negotiated an agreement with three domestic telecom providers operating 5G networks to protect Germany’s critical infrastructure from Chinese influence. This is Berlin’s latest move to reduce economic dependence on Beijing, a dependence which some fear could leave Germany vulnerable.

The three domestic German telecom operators are Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone and Telefonica Deutschland. According to their agreement with the German government, these telecom operators will remove key components of Huawei and ZTE Technologies from the 5G core network by the end of 2026 and will replace all components of Huawei and ZTE Technologies in the 5G network access and transmission infrastructure by the end of 2029.

The German government has informed Beijing about the agreement and does not expect retaliation for the move. Other European countries including the UK, Denmark, Sweden, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania have already imposed bans on components from Huawei and ZTE. The United States began to impose restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment as early as 2019. Germany is considered to have lagged behind in implementing EU 5G network security measures.

The Chinese Embassy in Germany criticized Germany’s move on its official website, saying “the so-called cyber security risks are just an excuse.”

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, July 12, 2024
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/china/story20240712-4249314

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Information/Technology

CNA: BMW Quits Price War in China

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that China’s auto market has been in serious trouble, and German luxury car brand BMW has been actively cutting prices since last year to maintain its market share. It now seems that BMW China will withdraw from China’s price war and adopt a new strategy of “volume reduction for price protection.” This became the hottest topic on Chinese social media at one point a few days ago.

According to local media reports, BMW China has been actively cutting prices. The average discount rate on BMW sales in 2023 was 17.66 percent. BMW delivered 825,000 vehicles last year in China, an annual increase of four percent. These delivery numbers came at the cost of a sharp decline in BMW’s profits, which fell more than 30 percent year-over-year.

In the first half of this year, BMW sold 375,947 vehicles (including the Mini brand, which is owned by BMW), with sales down four percent year-over-year. Now, price cuts are hurting both profit and sales. A BMW China salesperson revealed that the prices of all models will be adjusted upwards starting from July 10, and there will be another price increase after July 15. All previous price-cut offers will be cancelled.

Another German luxury car brand, Mercedes-Benz, has also entered the price war. Mercedes sales in the first half of the year also fell by nearly six percent. Mercedes has not made any official remarks regarding its pricing strategy. Meanwhile, Porsche sales China in have been even worse. In the first half of the year, Porsche sales in China totaled only 29,551 units, a 33 percent decrease from the same period last year.

Source: CNA, July 12, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202407120327.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China’s Photovoltaic Industry Faces Extensive Oversupply

Chinese companies have dominated the world’s photovoltaic industry (i.e. solar panel production). The sector represents one of the “new three products” (new energy vehicles (i.e. electric vehicles), lithium batteries, photovoltaic products) comprising Beijing’s current industrial strategy. In 2023, China’s exports of the “new three products” totaled 1.06 trillion yuan (US$ 150 billion), surpassing the trillion-yuan mark for the first time. Within just half a year, however, the entire Chinese photovoltaic industry has fallen into a loss territory.

As of July 9, among the listed companies that have disclosed their mid-year performance forecasts, most companies in the photovoltaic industry are forecasting significant losses. Among them, seven companies – LONGi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., Ltd., TCL Zhonghuan, Aiko Solar, Shuangliang Eco-Energy, Jingyuntong, and Hongyuan New Energy – are expected to have loss exceeding 1 billion yuan each. LONGi Green Energy, the world’s largest photovoltaic company, indicates a net loss of 4.8 billion to 5.5 billion yuan. Its market value has fallen from its peak of 550 billion yuan to below 100 billion yuan.

In the past, China provided heavy national subsidies to the photovoltaic industry that had attracted many manufacturers enter this field, producing homogeneous products. By the end of 2023, China’s annual production reached 861 gigawatts, more than twice the global installation volume of 390 gigawatts. It is predicted that the capacity will increase by another five to six hundred gigawatts this year. It is estimated that China’s silicon wafer, battery, and module production capacity to be put into operation in 2024 will be sufficient to cover the global annual demand till 2032 (nine years).

Critics point out, “(China’s) support for the photovoltaic industry is a result of government policy, rather than market guidance. (The current overcapacity) was inevitable. It is a result of a planned economy that has mismatched production and market (demand).”

Source: Epoch Times, July 14, 2024
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/24/7/14/n14290396.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources Government/Politics

Japan’s 2024 Defense White Paper Reveals Significant Reduction in Number of Chinese Missiles and Aircrafts

The Japanese Ministry of Defense recently released its 2024 Defense White Paper, revealing a significant reduction in the number of intermediate-range missiles possessed by the Chinese Rocket Force. The 2024 Defense White Paper reported 212 intermediate-range missiles, down from 278 in the 2023 report. The decline since 2021 has been even greater.

In 2023, there were a total of 70 DF-21 series missiles; by 2024, only 24 DF-21A/E missiles remained, with all DF-21B/C/D series missiles, including the so-called “carrier killer” DF-21D, disappearing.

China’s DF-26 missile count has reached to 140, an increase of 30 from 2023. Additionally, the number of nuclear warheads has increased to 410, up from 350 in both 2022 and 2023.

The number of J-20 aircraft has increased from 140 in 2023 to 200 in 2024. The number of J-16 aircraft has grown from 262 in 2023 to 292 in 2024. The J-10 fighter jets remain at 588 units as 2023. The number of carrier-based J-15 aircraft remains 60, insufficient to fully equip its two aircraft carriers.

Source: Epoch Times, July 12, 2024
https://cn.epochtimes.com/gb/24/7/12/n14289761.htm

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military