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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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U.S. F-15 Fighters Patrolling Airspace Near Taiwan with Live Ammunition

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) recently reported, based on a Global Times social media posting, that the U.S. military stationed in Japan dispatched several F-15C fighter jets carrying live air-to-air missiles to conduct combat air patrols in the airspace near Taiwan. Mainland China announced very recently that it would allow the Chinese J-20 stealth fighters to conduct normal combat patrols in the East China Sea. That led the United States to decide to show its muscles and send a military signal to China. Taiwanese media reported that eye witnesses provided pictures showing the F-15C fighter jets of the U.S. Air Force had flown back to Kadena Air Force Base in Japan carrying AIM-120C advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles and AIM- 9 live rounds of Sidewinder missiles. An unnamed source confirmed that the F-15C fighter group, supported by two KC-135 aerial tankers, returned to the Kadena Base after a seven-hour mission. The purpose was to carry out a combat air patrol mission in the airspace near Taiwan. This was the response after six U.S. congressmen visited Taiwan on April 14th and China later announced military exercises. U.S. fighter jets carry live ammunition only when they conduct quick response alerts or actual combat missions. This recent move was rather unusual. Afterwards, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Defense responded by emphasizing that, when defending national sovereignty and security, the People’s Liberation Army has always been brave and good at “showing the sword.”

Source: Sina, April 22, 2022
https://news.sina.com.cn/c/2022-04-22/doc-imcwipii5856420.shtml#/

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations

Record Number of College Graduates: 10.76 Million in 2022, Creates Complex and Severe Problems

Well-known Chinese news site NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES) recently reported that government statistics showed that, in 2022, the number of new urban laborers in need of employment in China will reach around 16 million, a new high for recent years. Of those 10.76 million are college graduates. That is the highest number in history. On April 7, Vice Premier Hu Chunhua presided over a symposium on the employment situation. He pointed out that, at present, because of the Covid pandemic and other factors, the employment challenge is “complex and severe.” Zeng Xiangquan, director of the Employment Research Institute of Renmin University of China, found that after the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, the proportion of college graduates choosing “slow employment” increased, and more graduates took the initiative to withdraw from the labor market. Now the supply of postgraduates is increasing, but employers are facing difficulties, which will push up the current unemployment rate. 2022 could be the most stressful year ever for college graduates. Just as the number of college graduates has reached its peak, the number of traditional employment “placement services” that help on the demand side has shrunk significantly. The industries hit really hard were real estate, education and training, as well as the Internet. Large-scale layoffs occurred in many mega information technology companies. In the financial field, since 2017, strengthening government supervision has become the main focus of the financial world. While deleveraging and reducing risks, the financial industry has slowed down and the employment opportunities in the industry have also declined as a whole. Private enterprises have contributed to 80 percent of China’s job market. However, due to a number of factors such as the pandemic and a reduced demand, the number of employees,  especially from small, medium and micro enterprises, has dropped significantly. In reality, the structural contradictions are more severe than the contradiction between supply and demand. With the change in young people’s career preferences, the mismatch of “workers who can’t find work, and businesses that can’t find workers” will worsen.

Source: NetEase, April 14, 2022
https://www.163.com/dy/article/H4UCOMTM051480G7.html

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

Is DiDi a Casualty of CCP In-fighting?

Epoch Times published an analysis article to explain that the shrinkage of DiDi, once China’s largest vehicle for hire company, might be a result of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) in-fighting.

On April 16, DiDi announced its plan to hold a special shareholder meeting on May 23 to decide whether to remove the company from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Its 2021 financial report showed that, in the fourth quarter, its revenue decreased by 12.7 percent and it had a net loss equivalent to $27 million. In February’s ranking of ride-for-hire market share in China, it was not even on the list of top ten companies.

DiDi’s President is Liu Qing (柳青) who holds the real power in the company. Her father is Liu Chuanzhi (柳传志), the founder of the Lenovo Group, one of China’s largest IT companies. Liu’s family had controlled China’s ride-for-hire business in the past. When Uber was in China, it hired Liu Zhen (柳甄) as the head of its China business. After Uber lost to DiDi, Liu Zhen worked with Liu Qing to merge Uber China’s operation into DiDi. At that time, the combined company had 93 percent of the market share. The same last name of Liu Qing and Liu Zhen are not accidental. They are true cousins.

It seems that, since last year, the authorities have been tough on both DiDi and Lenovo. DiDi made its IPO on the NYSE last June and Beijing started to restrict it afterward. Three months later, on September 30, Lenovo filed an application to make an IPO on the Shanghai STAR market (science and technology innovation board), but withdrew it a week later. This year, on April 14, the China Security Regulatory Commission criticized Lenono for not reporting financial data on time and required it to rectify itself. Two days later, DiDi announced its plan to delist from the NYSE.

The article said it is possible that Xi Jinping is targeting the Liu family, which was the front-man for the bunch of high-ranking officials in other CCP factions. Liu Chuanzhi created his enterprise during Jiang Zemin’s time – Jiang was a former CCP head and had a fierce power fight against his successor Hu Jintao and also Hu’s successor Xi Jinping. Liu was the President of the Tai Mountain Club, a secrete association of top business elites including Alibaba’s Ma Yun, Baidu’s Li Yanhong, Huaiyi Brother’s Wang Zhongjun, and others. These people started their business before Xi becameing the top man and therefore, the political power behind them was not from Xi’s group.

DiDi was likely to have received support from these business tycoons and thus the top red powerhouse families behind them. Xi might consider them a threat and therefore started targeting DiDi and Lenovo, similarly as Alibaba and its Ant Group.

Source: Epoch Times, April 22, 2022
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/4/22/n13717975.htm

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

Luo Siyi: Lessons from the Ukraine War: Counting on U.S.’ ‘Kindness’ Is Pointless

Luo Siyi, a Senior Researcher at the Chongyang Financial Research Institute, Renmin University of China, published an article on Guancha.cn (the Observer) discussing the intentions of the U.S.  in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. Some excerpts from the article follow:

“For more than 20 years, the foreign military expansion of the United States has been obvious. Even so, the occurrence of the Ukraine war also represents a qualitative change in U.S. military policy. Before the Ukraine war, the United States had only taken military action against developing countries that were far weaker in military power and did not possess nuclear weapons.”

“However, the U.S. threat to bring Ukraine into NATO, triggering a war in Ukraine, shows that U.S. military policy is not limited to attacking developing countries that are far weaker than itself. Although the United States knew in advance that its eastward expansion of NATO into Ukraine would affect Russia’s most important interests (a move that clearly crossed Russia’s red line when Russia’s extremely powerful military and nuclear capabilities are on par with the United States),  it was still prepared to take the risk.”

The U.S. is combining its basic political stance (the U.S. insists that Ukraine ‘has the right’ to join NATO) along with the military facts (the U.S. provides arms to Ukraine). It clearly shows that the U.S. has deliberately provoked a confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, even though this will inevitably lead to the United States and Russia being in a direct conflict. Therefore, when assessing the Ukraine crisis, it should be noted that the U.S. escalated its military threats from targeting developing countries. Such threats are unjust but without the direct risk of triggering a world war — to targeting a powerful country like Russia, which may lead to a global military conflict.”

”The United States is fully aware that the one-China policy involves China’s most important national interests and is the foundation of U.S.-China relations. To abandon the one-China policy is to cross China’s red line, which is more dangerous than trying to incorporate Ukraine into NATO. So it is clear that the U.S. is trying to undermine the one-China policy in a provocative way, just as it deliberately decided to cross Russia’s red line on Ukraine.

“On the question of whether the U.S. provocation against China and Russia is temporary or long-term and permanent, the clear conclusion of this article is that the U.S. military escalation trend will continue.”

Source: Guancha.cn, April 22, 2022
https://www.guancha.cn/LuoSiYi/2022_04_22_636204.shtml

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations

Jin Canrong: China Should Increase its Military Spending to Two Percent of GDP

In discussing the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Jin Canrong, a professor on American issues at the School of International Relations, Renmin University of China, made a statement in an interview with the Guancha (Observer). He advised that China should quickly increase its military spending to 2 percent of GDP in preparation for a potential war with Taiwan over its independence and with the American right wing forces.

Jin said, “From a technical point of view, the Ukraine issue can indeed be seen as a rehearsal for the Taiwan Strait crisis. This is a good learning opportunity. China can learn a lot from it, such as how to fight militarily, what pressures may be encountered politically, how to resolve these pressures, and more.

“For this conflict, different parties have learned experiences from different aspects. For example, for Taiwan, I believe this is a shock to the Taiwan authorities, but judging from their current position, it seems that they have not interpreted it in the right direction. For example, they say that Taiwan’s military strength is stronger than Ukraine’s. They also keep comforting themselves that, ‘for the United States, Taiwan’s strategic value is greater than Ukraine’s.’ This perception is dangerous.

“There is still a danger that some ‘Taiwan independence proponents, along with the U.S. right wing forces, will take the initiative to provoke a Taiwan Strait crisis because they also know that, from the perspective of development, time is advantageous to the mainland. They may not want to follow the rhythm of the mainland anymore. Believing that the mainland is not ready yet, they will make trouble ahead of time. This places higher requirements on our work. We must strengthen military preparations so that we can smash their plans at any time.

“In addition, I agree with a proposal by Lao Hu (Hu Xijin, former chief editor of Global Times), who although our military expenditure has increased 7.1 percent over last year, it is still low in general. It is less than 2 percent of GDP. Considering that the danger (of war) is increasing, it is very necessary to raise our military spending to 2 percent of GDP. We cannot underestimate the risk of the “Taiwan independence” forces and the American right-wing extremists.”

Source: Guancha.cn, April 2, 2022
https://www.guancha.cn/JinCanRong/2022_04_02_632942_s.shtml

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Government/Politics

China Is Quickly Building up Its Nuclear Warheads

A Pentagon report estimated that China currently has 200 nuclear weapons and predicted that it will increase the count five-fold, to 1,000, by 2030.

Peter Pry, Executive Director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and Director of the U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum, Center for Security Policy, estimated a much higher number. In an interview with the Epoch TV, he stated that, according to the speed with which China builds new Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) and launching sites, and its speed in manufacturing uranium, China’s nuclear warheads will be around 4,000 by 2030.

Source: Epoch Times, April 20, 2022
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/4/20/n13715671.htm

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

Former China’s Central Banker: It is Possible for the RMB to Replace SWIFT

Zhou Xiaochuan, former head of China’s Central Bank, the People’s Bank, said that it is possible for the Renminbi (RMB) to replace the SWIFT system.

Zhou made such statement at Qinghua University’s 2022 Global Finance Forum on April 14. Zhou expressed that SWIFT is not a cross-border international payment system, but rather a communications organization. The RMB’s Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) is a payment, clearing, and settlement system.

Zhou stated that circumventing SWIFT is theoretically feasible. Trade is the foundation and in the worst case scenario, people can conduct trade by exchanging goods for goods (instead of using currency).

Source: Net Ease, April 17, 2022
https://www.163.com/money/article/H557RS8M002580S6.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources US-China Relations