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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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China Quietly Expands its Military Influence in Africa

On March 9, 2021, Duowei, a pro-Beijing news media based in North America, published an article stating that China has quietly been expanding its military influence in Africa.

In the past several decades, Chinese military academies represented by Shijiazhuang Army Command College, the National Defense University PLA China and Nanjing Army Command College have trained a large number of military officers for many African countries. Since the Cold War, there have been long-standing military exchanges between China and Africa, including arms trade, military personnel training and military aid.

During the Uganda-Tanzania War in 1979, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) sent military advisors to support the Tanzanian Army, which subsequently overcame the Ugandan army and took over the Ugandan capital, Kampala.

In the Second Sudanese Civil War (1983 – 2005), the National Defense University PLA China trained the North Sudanese army, while almost all the middle-level and senior generals in South Sudan were graduates of the Shijiazhuang Military Academy, including the commander-in-Chief.

The Nanjing Army Command Academy alone provided military training to 5 African presidents: former Namibian President Samuel Nujoma (1990-2005), former Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete (2005-2015), former Congolese (DRC) President Laurent Kabila (1997-2001), Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki (since 1993), and former Guinea-Bissau President Joao Bernardo Vieira (1980-1999, 2005-2009).

Among them, in 1964, Samuel Nujoma went to the Nanjing Army Command Academy for advanced studies. After returning home, he led the local people to become independent from South Africa by applying PLA tactics such as guerrilla warfare and encircling the city from the countryside.

The National Defense University PLA China, Shijiazhuang Army Command Academy, Shijiazhuang Mechanized Infantry Academy and Nanjing Army Command Academy, serve as a training base for military or government leaders across Africa.

In February 2019, the State media, Global Times, had a similar report on the PLA training of African military officers .

Sources:
1. Duowei, March 9, 2021
https://www.dwnews.com/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD/60232262
2. Global Times, February 1, 201
https://world.huanqiu.com/article/9CaKrnKhDe1

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Gallop: Americans’ Favorability towards China and Russia Reached New Low

Deutsche Welle Chinese Edition recently reported that Gallop just released the results of a poll conducted a month ago which surveyed over one thousand adult Americans. The poll covers the favorability towards 18 countries. Only 20 percent of those polled had a favorable attitude toward China. This is a 13 percent decline from just last year. In the past decades, the same poll had its highest Chinese favorability rate at 72 percent, right before the Tiananmen Square Massacre. The number suffered a quick decline after that. The Gallop poll showed that the Chinese favorability decline is across party lines, though the Republicans had a lower number. In the past six months, favorability towards Russia also declined to its new record low, at 22 percent. According to Gallop, the deepest impact was caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Iran and North Korea sit at the bottom of the results.

Source: DW Chinese, March 3, 2021
https://bit.ly/3rpLpj0

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

China to Increase Military Budget by 6.8 Percent in 2021

On March 7, at the 4th Session of the 13th National People’s Congress, Wu Qian, spokesperson for the PLA and the Armed Police Force delegation said that China’s defense expenditure would be 1,379.544 billion yuan (US$212.4 billion) in 2021, an increase of 6.8 percent over the previous year.

In explaining the reason for the steep increase in the military budget, Wu said, ”A strong country must have a strong army, and a strong army can ensure national security. National defense is as important as sunlight and air. At present, the instability and uncertainty of international security have become more prominent. The Covid-19 epidemic is raging around the world. Hegemonism, power politics, and unilateralism are on the rise from time to time. Regional conflicts and local wars exist continuously. The international security system and order are under attack. The risks and challenges in homeland security that China is facing cannot be ignored. Land border disputes have not yet been completely resolved; island territorial issues and maritime delimitation disputes still exist; the DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) authorities stubbornly adhere to the separatist stand of “Taiwan independence,” which is the biggest real threat to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. In view of the current complex situation, it can be said that the world is not peaceful, and national defense must be strong.”

Source: website of Chinese Defense Ministry, March 8, 2021
http://www.mod.gov.cn/topnews/2021-03/08/content_4880597.htm

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

Lianhe Zaobao: Hong Kong Removed from Economic Freedom Ratings Index

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that the U.S. Heritage Foundation just released its 2021 Economic Freedom Index Report. For the first time in history, Hong Kong was kicked out of the ranking system. Singapore replaced Hong Kong last year to hold the top of the world position. This year, Singapore remains at the top. Before last year, Hong Kong had been sitting at the top of the list continuously for a quarter century. However, this year, the city didn’t even make it to the list. Macau, which ranked number 35 last year, was removed from the list this year as well. The Heritage Foundation used to praise Hong Kong for its independent legal system, freedom of the press and deep financial market. However, with the Hong Kong National Security Law, Beijing’s influence on Hong Kong’s policies has vastly deepened. The Wall Street Journal, which participated in the forming of this Index, explained that Hong Kong is now essentially the same as other Mainland cities like Beijing and Shanghai due to the level of policy control Beijing has, although Hong Kong residents have more economic freedom than average Mainland citizens.

Sources:
(1) Lianhe Zaobao, March 4, 2021
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/china/story20210304-1128662

(2) Heritage Foundation Official Site
https://www.heritage.org/index/

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Following Trump’s Executive Order, FTSE Russell Removes Xiaomi and Luokung from FTSE Russell Index

On March 5, Global Index publisher FTSE Russell announced that it will remove the Chinese smartphone manufacturer Xiaomi and tech data company Luokung Technology Corporation from its global indexes. FTSE Russell stated that the decision will take effect on March 12. The decision follows the executive order that the Trump administration signed.

This is the latest development on the issue of Chinese companies that have been delisted from the US and European markets. Earlier this year, the US NASDAQ Index dropped China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom. These are China’s three largest telecommunications companies. On February 26, the New York Stock Exchange also announced the initiation of the delisting of China National Offshore Oil Co., Ltd. (CNOOC), a large Chinese state-owned enterprise, following an executive order that the Trump administration issued.

On November 12, 2020, the Trump administration issued an executive order banning the U.S. investment in Chinese companies that have a Chinese military background or that the military controls. This order went into effect on January 12 this year. Nine Chinese companies, including Xiaomi, Luokung, and Commercial Aircraft of China, have been included in the sanctions list.

Xiaomi argued that it has nothing to do with the Chinese military, and filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Treasury in the U.S. District Court in the District of Columbia. The lawsuit argues that their decision to include Xiaomi on the sanctions list was procedurally unfair and they seek to have these decisions withdrawn.

However, the public information suggests that Xiaomi does have a close relationship with the Chinese military. The founder Lei Jun himself is a PLA veteran. Lei is also an investor in the Yinhe Space Company, whose chief scientist is closely involved in military equipment and technology development.

Source: Voice of America, March 5, 2021
https://www.voachinese.com/a/ftse-russell-to-delete-luokun-tech-fromindexes-20210305/5803364.html

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Global Times: The Germans are Coming to the South China Sea Too, Why?

Global Times recently reported that multiple officials from the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense revealed that a German frigate will set off for the Indo-Pacific region in early August this year. On its way returning to Germany six months after that, the warship will take the route of the South China Sea. This will be the first time for a German warship to pass through the South China Sea since 2002. The intent of this move is to increase the influence of Germany in the Indian-Pacific region, and to demonstrate its determination to participate in the construction of the new world order. German local news media thought this showed that Germany is against China’s position on sovereignty claims in the South China Sea region. The spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs commented that all countries have their freedom of navigation under international laws. However, no one can use this as an excuse to endanger the sovereignty and security of the countries along the coast. In recent years, European countries have tended to cooperate with the United States on this front, especially for Great Britain, Germany and France. They want to obtain the “sense of existence” by doing something “tangible.”

Source: Global Times, March 4, 2021
https://world.huanqiu.com/article/42AFGOr1E3w

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

China’s Aging Population and its Fraudulent Population Data

In an interview with Voice of America, Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, author of “Worse than Japan: how China’s looming demographic crisis will doom its economic dream,” an article that the South China Morning Post published, said that China will never surpasses the U.S. and that China’s national and local entities have been overstating the population data for their own benefit.

China’s economic growth will fall behind the U.S. by 2035 because of its aging population

China censored Yi in 2016 because Yi told the New York Times when participating in the 2016 Boao Forum that China’s economy could never exceed the U.S. At that time, the statement he voiced was a big blow to China.

Yi said that population drives the economy – production, consumption and innovation. Yi predicted that because of its aging population, China’s growth will fall behind the U.S. by 2035 and will also make it impossible to surpass the U.S. as the world’s largest economy in 2028. In the 1980’s, China was going through the reform and opening up. China’s median age was 22 years old vs. 30 in the U.S. At that time, China’s economy achieved great results because it conformed to the economic law. However, China’s labor force began to decline around 2014, and the median age had surpassed the U.S. even before 2018. Currently China’s median age is 42 years old while in the U.S. it is 38 years old. If China keeps a stable birth rate of 1.2 (each woman of childbearing age has an average of 1.2 children in her lifetime), then by 2035, the median age in China will be 49 years old, while in the U.S. it will be 42. By 2050, China will reach over 56 years old, and the U.S. will be 44 years old. Between 2030 and 35, China’s population index will fall behind the U.S., which means that the economic growth will be lower than the U.S. by around 2035.

Meanwhile China’s labor force began to decrease in 2013 and 2014, while the labor force in the U.S. will not decrease until 2050. In 1991, China’s birth rate was already lower than the U.S. and in 2000 it was lower than Japan, Germany, Greece, Portugal, and Italy.

Government entities have been overstating population data

According to Yi, very few elite scholars in the U.S. conduct analyses on China’s population data and they don’t have the real data. In the more than 20 years of his research career, he found that the China’s National Family Planning Commission, the National Bureau of Statistics, the local education departments, the local household registration departments, and hospitals have been overstating the population numbers. As a result, projected economic indicators such as the future labor force, consumption power, productivity, and innovation are exaggerated, leading to the overstating of China’s future economic growth and national power.

In 2000, the census data showed that China’s birth rate was only 1.2 and there were 14.08 million births, which means that it had reached the point where China needed to boost its birth rate. However, a law and regulation director of the Family Planning Commission said that the birth rate can’t be that low, so he forged a false report. The Family Planning Commission even announced that, if China had eased up on the one child policy, its birth rate would have risen to 2.1 which would have resulted in an unlimited population expansion. The Family Planning Commission continued to report higher birth rates in 2010 and 2015 census.

In 2016, China stopped the one child policy. The Family Planning Commission projected that China would have 47 million births every year but the actual number of births was 22 million in 2015 and 12 million births in 2016. In 2017, there were discussions on whether China still needed a Family Planning Commission. In order to maintain its power, the Family Planning Commission projected that China would have 18.46 million births in 2018, but the actual births in 2018 was only 13.62 million.

Yi said that at that time, from the National Bureau of Statistics which receives data from the Family Planning Commission to the China Population Association which is managed by the Family Planning Commission, all levels of the government entities set their population numbers to meet their needs.

Even the education bureaus have inflated the student numbers because the education funds they get are jointly funded by the central and local governments based on the projected school age children. The same is for the hospitals. After 2008 when the farmers had insurance to cover child births, hospitals started to overstate the number of births to receive more funding because they knew that the National Health Commission would never be able to find out what the actual number was.

After the household registration reform took place in 2010, there were no restrictions for people to register for residential status. People started to buy or sell birth certificates. Some even have dual or even multiple household registrations. The public security bureau’s household registration data was also fraudulent because the number of household registrations was tied in with the government housing incentive and social security funding.

The National Bureau of Statistics believes that from 2000 to 2019, China had a population increase of 130 million people, while public security household registration showed an increase of 170 million. Yi estimated that, in 2018, the number of births in China was about 10 million, which would have been the beginning of a negative population growth trend. The National Bureau of Statistics, however, showed the number of births was 15.23 million, an increase of 5.3 million, and household registrations showed an increase of 9.24 million.

Source: Voice of America, March 4, 2021
https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-will-not-win-the-race-with-us-20210304/5802138.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Expert Group Issued Artificial Intelligence Report: America Not AI Ready

The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence is an independent Commission that was established on August 13, 2018, pursuant to Section 1051 of the John S. McCain National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019 (P.L. 115-232). Its purpose is “to consider the methods and means necessary to advance the development of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and associated technologies in order to address comprehensively the national security and defense needs of the United States.” It recently issued its final report after two years of study.

The bipartisan commission of 15 technologists, national security professionals, business executives, and academic leaders met recently. The letter from the chair, Eric Schmidt, the former Google CEO, “is delivering an uncomfortable message: America is not prepared to defend or compete in the AI era. This is the tough reality we must face. It is this reality that demands comprehensive, whole-of-nation action.”

“The letter highlights the threat and competition from China. “But we must win the AI competition that is intensifying strategic competition with China. China’s plans, resources, and progress should concern all Americans. It is an AI peer in many areas and an AI leader in some applications. We take seriously China’s ambition to surpass the United States as the world’s AI leader within a decade.”

The report, “presents an integrated national strategy to reorganize the government, reorient the nation, and rally our closest allies and partners to defend and compete in the coming era of AI-accelerated competition and conflict. It is a two-pronged approach. Part I ‘Defending America in the AI Era,’ outlines the stakes, explains what the United States must do to defend against the spectrum of AI-related threats, and recommends how the U.S. government can responsibly use AI technologies to protect the American people and our interests. Part II, ‘Winning the Technology Competition,’ addresses the critical elements of the AI competition and recommends actions the government must take to promote AI innovation to improve national competitiveness and protect critical U.S. advantages.”

Recommendations for defending America in the AI Era include:

Defend against emerging AI-enabled threats to America’s free and open society
Prepare for future warfare
Manage risks associated with AI-enabled and autonomous weapons
Transform national intelligence
Scale up digital talent in government
Establish justified confidence in AI systems
Present a democratic model of AI use for national security

To win the technology competition, the report suggests:

Organize a White House–led strategy for technology competition
Win the global talent competition
Accelerate AI innovation at home
Implement comprehensive intellectual property (IP) policies and regimes
Build a resilient domestic base for designing and fabricating microelectronics
Protect America’s technology advantages
Build a favorable international technology order
Win the associated technologies competitions

The report expresses a deep sense of urgency and proposed, “By 2025, the Department of Defense and the Intelligence Community must be AI-ready.”

Source: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence

2021 Final Report

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations