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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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Global Times: MSCI to Remove Seven Chinese Stocks from Its Indexes

Global Times recently reported that the world’s largest stock index company MSCI announced that, after the market closes on January 5, it will remove seven Chinese companies from its indexes. Earlier, S&P Dow Jones Indexes and FTSE Russell already made similar moves. This is following U.S. President Donald Trump’s having issued an executive order to ban U.S. investment in 31 military-tied Chinese companies. The impacted stocks hold a share of 0.04 percent in the MSCI ACWI Investable Market Index and 0.28 percent in the Emerging Market Index. China says this shows the U.S. hegemony in capital markets. (Editor’s note: MSCI indexes are often used to allocate elements in major U.S. funds automatically, such as pension funds and other retirement funds).

Source: Global Times, December 17, 2020
https://finance.huanqiu.com/article/418PjinqXwF

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Kwongwah Daily: The U.S. Sponsored Mekong Dam Monitor Plan

Kwongwah, which is Malaysian-based, is the world’s oldest privately owned Chinese daily newspaper. It recently reported that the U.S. State Department sponsored the Mekong Dam Monitor Plan, which it just introduced. The Mekong River, also known as the Lancang River in China, is 4,350 kilometers in length and flows southward through Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. The Plan will use satellites to track the Chinese dam water level of the Lancang River in the upper Mekong, as well as the water levels of the dams in the downstream countries. The Plan will also collect data on surface humidity in the region and the natural water flow volume of the Mekong River. All data will be shared with the general public. Scientists working on the Plan explained that the Chinese dams are carefully designed to maximize the power generation to supply Eastern China. Monitoring data showed the design did not consider the impact on the downstream countries. That impact affects a total population of 60 million people, who depend heavily on the Mekong for fishing and agriculture. China disagreed with this assessment. Sun Yat-sen, the founder of the Republic of China, established Kwongwah Daily 110 years ago.

Source: Kwongwah Daily, December 14, 2020
https://bit.ly/3nAcdLs

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations

Scholar Estimates China’s Unemployment Is as High as Twenty Percent

The new coronavirus has devastated the economies of countries around the world, leaving a large number of people unemployed, although the Chinese government has never publicly admitted the fact that the epidemic has eliminated the jobs of many Chinese people.

In a recent interview with Tencent Finance, a well-known Chinese economist Yao Yang, head of Peking University’s National School of Development, said that the epidemic has had a profound impact on the domestic economy. In the first quarter of this year, many small and medium-sized business, especially those in the service sector, were forced to close down. It is quite difficult for these low-profit businesses to reopen and some may disappear for good.

According to data that China’s National Bureau of Statistics of China released in July, in the first half of this year, more than 5 million new jobs were created in urban regions, exceeding the annual target. As of June, the nationwide urban survey showed an unemployment rate of 5.7 percent, but Yao mentioned another set of alarming numbers in the interview.

According to Yao, at the end of June, the National School of Development of Peking University conducted an online survey of more than 6,000 people. The survey showed that the unemployment rate was as high as 15 percent, and 5 percent were semi-unemployed. Considering over 700 million people in labor force, an unemployment rate of 20 percent translates into over a hundred million people unemployed at the time. Such a large unemployed population obviously differs significantly from what the government said at the time. It said, “The overall employment situation in the country is stable.”

He Qinglian, a Chinese economist currently living in the United States, believes that Yao’s remark gives a higher number than the official figure and that he wishes to emphasize the seriousness of China’s unemployment problem. “The problem of unemployment among the rural population is more pronounced. In the urban unemployed population, the people themselves generally absorb the unemployed. For example, it has almost become a common phenomenon that many unemployed young people have become their parents’ dependents.”

China unemployment rate is only based on the urban population. Critics believe that the authorities have long concealed the scale of hidden unemployment in rural areas on the grounds that farmers “have land to grow” and are not considered unemployed. In fact, due to the very limited arable land per capita in the country, there are a great number of surplus laborers in rural areas. These highly mobile populations are usually not included in government statistics.

He Qinglian said that the size of China’s rural unemployed population has always been a mystery and that this relates to their social attributes. “In the countryside, no matter how many unemployed people there are, they have no organizational and action capabilities. Mao Zedong once sent all the young intellectuals to the countryside to relieve the pressure in the cities.”

Yao also mentioned in an online forum in June that the unemployment problem of migrant workers, who travel to cities from rural areas to look for low paying jobs, is very serious. In the second quarter, migrant workers began to travel to the cities on a large scale, but due to limited job availability in the cities, there was another wave of them returning to the countryside in May. He also mentioned the 8.7 million new college graduates this year. The government plans to add 9 million urban jobs, which can at best match the demand of college graduates, but not the demand of those who have already lost their jobs.

Source: Radio Free Asia, December 18, 2020
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/hc-12182020131524.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Wall Built along Myanmar Border to Stop People from Fleeing China

The Chinese government is building walls along the China-Myanmar border in Yunnan Province to prevent illegal border crossings. The Twitter account of the first special zone of Myanmar’s northern Shan State, where the Kokang ethnic group resides, recently posted that in order to prevent its citizens from illegally emigrating to Myanmar, the Chinese government has completed the first phase of the project which is code-named “Great Wall of the South” – a 660-kilometer-long wall of barbed wire. The second phase of the project will be completed by the end of next year. By then, more than 2,000 kilometers of the Myanmar-China border will be completely detached.

The Twitter of Myanmar’s northern Shan State also claimed that the third phase of the “Great Wall of the South” will be completed in October 2022, and high-voltage electric wiring will be installed at key smuggling passages. Video surveillance cameras and infrared alarms will be installed everywhere.

Si Ling, a scholar on China-Myanmar relations, told Radio Free Asia that the Chinese government’s construction of a high wall on the China-Myanmar border is not to prevent the influx of the coronavirus.

Si said that China’s decision to build this wall was not made overnight, but after very rigorous planning. In the past, it was easy to cross the borders between China and Vietnam and China and Myanmar. The people of the two countries would be in China today, and go to Vietnam tomorrow, and even go back and forth within the same day. The purpose of Beijing’s construction of this wall is to prevent the people from leaving China.

Source: Radio Free Asia, December 14, 2020
https://www.rfa.org/cantonese/news/wall-12142020073935.html

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

Wang Yi Said any Issues between China and the U.S. Can Be Discussed, including Taiwan

China Review News Agency published a “Quick Commentary” in which it stated that, on the 7th, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a video exchange with a delegation from the US-China Business Council’s Board of Directors. He put forth five suggestions on promoting the healthy and stable development of Sino-US relations, including opening up dialogues at all levels and strengthening communication. He expressed that any question can be raised at the negotiation table, including strategic, overall, and long-term issues. Discussions could also start on specific issues to seek breakthroughs and solutions.

He pointed out that the new US government will come to power on the 20th of next month. Therefore, this is an opportunity for China and the United States to reverse or ease the tense relations from the past three years. In addition to Wang Yi, Cui Tiankai, the Chinese Ambassador to the United States, and Fu Ying, the former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, also recently sent out messages to promote talks, calling for the promotion of Sino-US relations to be put back on track.

Wang Yi pointed out that any issue between China and the United States can be brought to the table for discussion. His attitude seemed quite proactive and open, showing that the Chinese side is confident and determined. He pointed out that any issue could be discussed, including Taiwan and that, in recent years, the Trump administration has frequently played the “Taiwan card.” As part of the U.S. policy to contain China and decouple from China, the Taiwan Strait is most likely to become a tipping point for China and the United States, and communication and control are urgently needed.

Many people expect that the new US government will not easily let go of the “Taiwan card,” but they do not rule out the gradual adjustment of policies under pressure from China. In the past, between 2005 and 2008, in the late Bush administration, China and the United States once formed a situation of joint control and containment of “Taiwan independence.” Now, China has more strength and determination to crack down on any external intervention and crack down on the separatist activities of those who favor “Taiwan independence.”

China’s side has taken the initiative to send out messages and appeals to promote talks, and it is also preparing for the opening of dialogues at all levels between China and the United States. Biden’s victory did bring a turning point for returning Sino-US relations to the right track and a resumption of dialogue between the two sides can be expected. Enhancing communication will make it possible for both sides to manage differences and to expand the convergence of interests effectively, which will be beneficial to the stability of the situation across the Taiwan Strait. [Editor’s note: This report, which was on a number of major Chinese media websites on Dec. 8, 2020, shows how confident Wang Yi is on Biden’s victory and on the Biden administration’s cooperation. This report can be no longer be found online but has been archived.

Source: http://news.stnn.cc/hk_taiwan/2020/1208/810846.shtml

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics US-China Relations

Members of House and Senate Introduced Bill to Stop Forced Organ Harvesting in China

On December 16, Senator Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas), Congressmen Chris Smith (R-New Jersey) and Tom Suozzi (D-New York) jointly introduced the Stop Forced Organ Harvesting Act which aims to prevent the Chinese Communist Party from harvesting organs from prisoners of conscience.

The Act mandates annual reporting on forced organ harvesting in foreign countries. This State Department reporting would identify foreign officials and entities responsible for forced organ harvesting. The Act sanctions foreign officials and entities that engage in or otherwise support forced organ harvesting and prohibits the export of organ transplant surgery devices to entities responsible for forced organ harvesting. It authorizes the U.S. government to deny or revoke passports for illegal organ purchasers.

In the statement Cotton, Smith and Suozzi issued, they stated that there is growing evidence that the Chinese Communist Party has and continues to harvest organs from prisoners and members of Chinese religious groups. They called organ harvesting barbaric, inhumane and egregious. The Act will put an end this gruesome human rights abuse and the members of the CCP must be held accountable for it.

Source: Voice of America, December 18, 2020
https://www.voachinese.com/a/bill-to-combat-forced-organ-harvesting-20201218/5705314.html

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

China’s Sanction of Australian Coal Backfires; Result: Electricity Shortage

China’s boycott of imported coal from Australia has affected many domestic industries. In order to save on coal consumption, places including Zhejiang and Hunan provinces have implemented restrictive measures on electricity usage.

Some netizens posted that they received messages that Yiwu city of Zhejiang province has started power rationing and blackouts. Small businesses and workshops in Yiwu have had their power cut off.

A trading company employee told Radio Free Asia that the electricity rationing measures have affected people’s lives: “Zhejiang is now rationing electricity of all enterprises and government entities. Despite the cold weather, it has been ordered to keep the heaters off until the indoor temperature is below 3 degrees Celsius. … It is probably because of Australian coal. Heaters do not consume lot of electricity, as not many Chinese people use heaters in the winter.”

Another netizen posted a message that in some cities in Zhejiang and Hunan, the traffic lights were turned off in the later part of the night.

The Hunan Provincial government recently issued a notice stating that the daily electricity consumption time slots are from 10:30 am to 12:00 pm and 16:30 pm to 20:30 pm. During these time slots, the landscape lighting in the province will be turned off and street lights will be dimmed. Communist Party and government office buildings will turn off the power on weekends. The situation may last until the 2021 Chinese New Year in February. No reason was specified for the power rationing.

Most export-oriented factories in Zhejiang province have received the “power cut and production reduction” notice. A supplier in Wenzhou city posted a notice showing that between December 15 and 31, high energy consumption enterprises are required to implement electricity rationing. During this period, the authorities will conduct 24-hour surveillance of the electricity consumption for production use. Factories that fail to follow the regulation will be forced to cut off their power and stop production for 20 days.

Australia is a major source of China’s coal imports.

Source: Radio Free Asia, December 16, 2020
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/ql2-12162020032516.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: China’s Rocket Force Increased over 35 Percent in Three Years

A report titled, “Chinese nuclear forces, 2020” was published on December 10 as a result of the research of Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project with the Federation of American Scientists, and Matt Korda, a research associate with the project. The report examines China’s nuclear arsenal, which is estimated to have surpassed France’s as the world’s third largest.

The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF), formerly the Second Artillery Corps (SAC), is China’s strategic and tactical missile force. The PLARF is a component part of the People’s Liberation Army and controls the nation’s arsenal of land-based ballistic missiles—both nuclear and conventional.

According to the December 10 report, “the number of ballistic missile brigades has increased by over 35 percent in just three years. Some of those are still under construction.  … We estimate the PLA Rocket Force currently has up to 40 brigades with ballistic or cruise missile launchers. Of those brigades, approximately half operate ballistic missile launchers with nuclear capability, a number that is likely to grow further as bases currently under construction are completed.”

The report stated that 12 of the brigades belonged to the eastern and southern command theaters, which mainly deal with Taiwan and South China Sea affairs.

The Chinese government did not publish nuclear weaponry information such as the number of warheads. The report estimated that “China has produced a stockpile of approximately 350 nuclear warheads, of which roughly 272 are for delivery by more than 240 operational land-based ballistic missiles, 48 sea-based ballistic missiles, and 20 nuclear gravity bombs assigned to bombers. The remaining 78 warheads are intended to arm additional land- and sea-based missiles that are in the process of being fielded.”

As of 2019, the U.S. had an inventory of 3,800 nuclear warheads, while early this year, Russia had 4,500.

Although China only recently has begun to reassign a formal nuclear mission to the PLA Air Force units, it is developing a bomber with a longer range and improved capabilities to replace its current H-6 bombers. “US officials have stated for several years that the new bomber, known as H-20, will have a nuclear capability. In early 2020 the US Defense Department described the H-20 as a ‘stealth’ bomber whose production will begin within 10 years.”

Although the Jin-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) are still a very noisy design, “it seems likely that China will end production after its now-completed six boats and will turn its efforts to developing the quieter third-generation (Type 096) SSBN, which is scheduled to begin construction in the early 2020s. The completion of a new construction hall at Huludao, where the PLA Navy’s submarines are built, indicates that work may soon begin on the Type 096, which is expected to be larger and heavier than the Type 094.”

Source: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, December 10, 2020
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2020.1846432

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military