Chinascope – Page 379

China’s Security Czar: Defend National Political Security; Crack Down on Infiltration of Hostile Forces

On November 28, Guo Shengkun, who is the head of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) Political and Legal Affairs Commission (PLAC), published an article in People’s Daily. The article called for the firm defense of “national political security,” which is “the lifeline of the Party’s and the nation’s security, and an unshakable bottom line.” Guo vowed “resolutely and severely to prevent and crack down on” the infiltration of hostile forces. The PLAC is a CCP agency that oversees all legal enforcement authorities, including the police force.

In the article Guo also said that the construction of the “people’s defense line for national security” should be strengthened. The whole country and the entire population should enhance their awareness of the sense of national security and enhance the nation’s ability to prevent and defend against national security risks. He said that everyone ought to be “on high vigilance, take resolute precautions, and severely punish” the hostile forces’ infiltration and their destructive and subversive, activities to promote secession, thus “building a solid copper and iron wall for national security.” Guo also advocated for concerted efforts to advance national security work and walk the “path of national security with Chinese characteristics.”

Regarding issues causing potential social unrest, Guo demanded that the problem be prevented at an early stage and at the grassroots level. “Small matters stay in the village, big issues go no further than the township, and conflicts are not passed on to higher level authorities.”

Source: Central News Agency, November 28, 2019
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/201911280317.aspx

Briefings | | December 8, 2019 | Government/Politics

Chinese Household Debt Exceeds 60 Percent of GDP

Last week, the People’s Bank of China released data showing that, by the end of last year, China’s household debt accounted for more than 60 percent of GDP. Real estate mortgages accounted for 47 percent of household income, a year-on-year increase of 3.7 percent. Fitch Ratings estimates that the outstanding balance of credit card receivables reached 7.23 trillion yuan (US $1.03 trillion) in the first half of this year.

A Hong Kong based commentator Johnny Y.S. Lau told Radio Free Asia that, in recent years, the government has been encouraging people to invest in real estate. With the soaring housing prices, there has been an oversupply of real estate in many cities. As the US-China trade war continues to slow the economy, the property market and economy may face a crash at any time. Lau said, “In the past, 40 percent (of people’s income) was in bank savings. Now, a lot of money is invested in real estate. With the US-China trade war causing exports to stagnate, cash flow may become a problem, which makes the risk of a crash increasingly apparent. As the second and third tier cities have absorbed a large number of those in the rural populations, the housing prices have been pushed even higher. Now it depends on whether the people’s savings can keep up and on how the authorities regulate property prices.”

At the same time, China’s domestic consumption has weakened compared to previous years. In October of this year, retail sales increased by 7.2 percent year-on-year, the lowest growth in nearly 16 years. Weak consumer confidence has also led to a 10-month consecutive decline in car sales, down to a negative 4 percent growth in October.

Source: Radio Free Asia, December 5, 2019
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/gf2-12052019085502.html

Briefings | | December 8, 2019 | Economy/Resources

Deutsche Welle: The World Bank Terminated Its Controversial Loan to Xinjiang

Deutsche Welle reported that, on November 11, 2019, the World Bank decided to terminate its loan program and financial support to Xinjiang vocational schools amid questions of whether Beijing used the money to repress Uyghurs in Xinjiang.

The World Bank provided a US $50 million loan to the “Xinjiang Technical and Vocational Education and Training Project” in 2015.

In July, a World Bank employee wrote a lengthy email to an executive director on the bank’s board detailing concerns about the Xinjiang program. The employee listed numerous issues perceived as red flags and suggested that the program should be referred to an internal inspection committee for investigation to ensure that World Bank rules were being followed.

For example, according to a tender dated November 2018, Yarkand Technical School, which is managed by another school as part of the World Bank program, spent about $30,000 purchasing 30 tear gas launchers, 100 anti-riot batons, 400 sets of camouflage clothing, 100 sets of “stab-resistant clothing,” 60 pairs of “stab-resistant gloves,” 45 helmets, 12 metal detectors, 10 police batons, and barbed wire. It is not clear if this money came directly from the World Bank loan, or from other funding sources, but it points to a worrying cross-over between the camps and legitimate schools.

The employee’s concerns went unheeded.

On August 23, the U.S. Congressional Executive Commission on China issued a letter to World Bank President David Malpass expressing its concern.

On November 11, 2019, the World Bank decided to terminate the loan program. However, human rights organizations and experts were not satisfied since the World Bank didn’t release a thorough investigate result about how the money was used.

Source: Deutsche Welle, November 12, 2019
https://www.dw.com/zh/世银终止资助新疆职业学校-专家批治标不治本/a-51207170

Briefings | | December 6, 2019 | Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend Social Stability

Belgium Trade Delegation Experienced Severe Cyberattacks in Beijing

The media from Belgium reported that the Belgian Trade Delegation experienced severe cyberattacks that were as high as 135 times per hour, while visiting Beijing.

Princess Astrid, Defense Minister Didier Reynders, and Minister for Security and the Interior Pieter De Crem led the delegation to visit Beijing and Shanghai from November 17 to 22.

Accordingly to Geert Baudewijns, a Belgium network security expert who was a member of the delegation, found it to be suspicious that he saw mobile devices outside their hotel in Beijing and all of their network traffic had to go through some specific network system. He brought a few laptops to China. Using special monitoring tools, he found his laptops were hacked into fairly often. Cyberattacks against his computer were as high as 135 times every hour.

It was hard to pinpoint the attacker. From the IP address, Baudewijns felt it might be related to China’s National Security office.

Source: Epoch Times, November 23, 2019
http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/19/11/23/n11676371.htm

Briefings | | December 6, 2019 | Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

Papua New Guinea Is Mired in Chinese Debt

At the same time that Papua New Guinea (PNG) is facing record high fiscal deficits, its government’s new annual budget shows that, by 2023, it will face a 25 percent increase in its annual debt repayments to China, an amount of US$ 67 million.

The resource rich country is among the poorest ones in Oceania. In recent years, it has been caught in the midst of the US-China diplomatic wrestling. As China’s influence continues to expand, PNG has become increasingly dependent on China. The United States warned that China’s predatory economic policy is destabilizing the Indo-Pacific region. Although the PNG’s budget does not specify the total debt owed to China, Reuters reports that China is the country’s largest creditor.

According to Reuters, in Papua New Guinea’s annual budget, the amount of its debt increased by 10 percent over the previous year, reaching 42 percent of GDP and exceeding the legal cap of 35 percent. The Australian government recently announced a preferential loan of 440 million Australian dollars (US$300 million) to support the PNG’s budget and economic development.

Source: Voice of America, November 29, 2019
https://www.voachinese.com/a/Papua-New-Guinea-Faces-Cash-Crunch-As-China-Repayment-Schedule-Ramps-Up-20191129/5186205.html

Briefings | | December 5, 2019 | Geo-Strategic Trend

Chinese Economist Predicted Lower Growth. Then His Speech Was Deleted

The chief economist of China’s Essence Securities, Gao Shanwen, delivered a speech at an internal annual strategy meeting on Wednesday (November 27). Gao predicted that China’s economic slowdown will last several years and that the average annual economic growth between 2020 and 2030 will stay below five percent. Gao was even concerned about whether GDP (gross domestic product) would grow above four percent. He expressed the belief that there are two contributing factors. The first is the impact of the trade war. The second is the stagnation of China’s economic reform as featured by the phenomenon of the “advancement of the state enterprises and the retreat of the private sector.”

Gao added that the government has used strong counter-cyclical measures to prevent the economic downturn. These have barely supported the growth rate at about six percent. However, the stimulus policies are less and less effective. With a weak domestic market, the economy of 2020 doesn’t look good. Although his speech was widely circulated on the Internet, within one day, the content had been completely deleted.

Gao is a well-known economist in China, whose remarks attracted the attention of the Chinese institutional investors and the financial media. In 2016, Gao attended the Economic Situation and Entrepreneurs Forum that Chinese Premier Li Keqiang hosted. Earlier this year, Li Keqiang stated that the target for GDP growth this year was set at 6 percent to 6.5 percent.

Source: Radio Free Asia, December 4, 2019
https://www.rfa.org/cantonese/news/economy-12042019061940.html

Briefings | | December 4, 2019 | Economy/Resources

Global Times: Russia is Prepared to Help Turkey Make Its Own Fifth-Generation Fighter Jets

Global Times reported on an intention that the Director of Rostec (the Russian State Corporation for Assistance to Development, Production and Export of Advanced Technology Industrial Products, formally known as Russian Technologies) recently announced. Russia is ready to “provide technical help at any time” to Turkey to develop its own fifth-generation fighter jets. Russia obtained rich experience during its development of the Russian Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jets. Russia has been delivering its S-400 air-defense missile systems to Turkey since July, which caused a relationship crisis between Turkey and the United States. Turkey plans to deploy the S-400 systems in April, 2020. Washington has delayed its delivery of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey and threatened to cancel the F-35 contract with Turkey altogether. The United States asked Turkey to give up the use of the S-400 systems, but Turkey so far has resisted.

Source: Global Times, November 18, 2019
https://mil.huanqiu.com/article/7RHee2LIQi4

Briefings | | December 4, 2019 | Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

Global Times: Washington Cannot Cut the Ties between Hong Kong and the World

Global Times recently published a commentary as part of the wave of Chinese media attacking the new U.S. law, The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, that President Trump just signed. Global Times asserted that the U.S politicians are simply turning Hong Kong into a jump point to deter the rise of Mainland China. The commentary indicated that China has now become so powerful that Hong Kong can no longer be used as a “strategic Western chess piece.” The U.S. move may be able to create a little bit of trouble for China right now, but in doing so, it may destroy the United States’ interest in Hong Kong. The commentary described the “One Country Two Systems” arrangement as a reasonable setup that is good for both Mainland China and Hong Kong. It is a system which was working well until the U.S. came up with this new law that threatens to take away Hong Kong’s favorable trade partner status. The author claimed that Hong Kong can continue to sustain its prosperity with or without the U.S. The commentary concluded that Hong Kong’s global status was not something that the United States granted; therefore, the U.S. cannot simply cut the ties that Hong Kong has established with the world, .

Source: Global Times, November 30, 2019
https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/9CaKrnKo4lA

Briefings | | December 4, 2019 | Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations

Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”