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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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Chinese Military Expert on Protection against Nuclear Attacks

On January 30, 2019, People’s Liberation Army Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), published an interview with a military expert, Qian Qihu.

Qian Qihu was born in October 1937. He is a military engineer and a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering. He won China’s 2018 Highest Science and Technology Award. According to the article, for more than 60 years, Qian has been working on protective engineering research and personnel training. He established China’s theoretical system of modern protective engineering and solved some key technical problems, including nuclear weapons’ airborne explosions, ground-contact explosions, ground- penetrating explosions and new ground-penetrating bombs.

Qian said, “our national defense projects, especially underground protection projects, are the cornerstone of the country’s active defense strategy, the last line of defense for national security, and an important guarantee for our peaceful environment.”

Qian also said, “In the information battlefield, there have been great developments of satellite reconnaissance and surveillance technology, as well as the application of precision-guided weapons. As a result, the bunker buster missiles equipped with a smart fuze has a higher hit ratio, stronger ground-penetration ability, and more destructive power. All these pose greater challenges to the protection project. Recently, a country has tested hypersonic missiles that have a strong penetration capability. It is said that no anti-missile system can prevent it. When the anti-missile system fails to intercept it midway, the role of the ground and underground protection works stand out.”

Source: People’s Liberation Army Daily, January 30, 2019
http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2019-01/30/content_226530.htm

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

Russia Continues to Be China’s Largest Oil Supplier

Well-known Chinese news site Sina recently reported that, based on data from China’s General Administration of Customs, Russia was China’s largest oil supplier in 2018, reaching 1.49 million barrels. This represents a 19.7 percent year-over-year increase. Russia has owned the top supplier title for the past three consecutive years. Russian oil represented 15.5 percent of China’s total oil imports last year. For many years, Saudi Arabia was China’s largest oil provider. However, starting in 2015, Russia expanded its reach into the Chinese market, especially in the segment of local smaller refineries. Also, the second Russia-China oil pipeline was formally put in use in January 2018. Saudi Arabia remains as China’s second largest oil provider. China used to be one of the biggest oil buyers for the United States. However, last December, China did not import any oil from the U.S.

Source: Sina, January 25, 2019
https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/fmnews/2019-01-25/doc-ihrfqzka0877418.shtml

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Chinese Ambassador Admitted Personal Involvement in Cancelling Shen Yun Performance

Epoch Times reported that, according to a recent investigation, Lu Fan, China’s Ambassador to Spain, admitted that he pressured a Spanish theater into cancelling a performance that Shen Yun Performing Arts had booked with the theater.

“Lu admitted in a phone call, that he personally put pressure on the Royal Theater in Madrid to cancel its contract with Shen Yun Performing Arts. By using the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) control of the large Chinese market as an enticement, Lu and the theater’s director jointly planned to cancel the Shen Yun performances under the pretext of “technical difficulties.” After the case was reported, Lu and the theater continued planning on how to respond.”

Shen Yun Performing Arts is a New York-based independent performance troupe specializing in classical Chinese dance. Its many companies have tours around the world every year in as many as 130 major cities. It has, for years, been the target of the CCP, which uses Chinese embassies and consulates to try to disrupt the performances. The World Organization to Investigate the Persecution of Falun Gong (WOIPFG), a non-profit organization that investigates human-rights abuses perpetrated against Falun Gong adherents, has been following such incidents.

A WOIPFG investigator, who, posed as a high-level Chinese government official, called Lu Fan directly and got him to reveal the details of how he intervened in Spain. Lu Fan directly called the Royal Theater and requested that it cancel the Shen Yun performance that had been scheduled for January 31 to February 2 this year.

In the investigator’s phone call, Lu admitted that the theater’s general manager was initially reluctant to carry out the embassy’s request because the theater had already sold nearly 900 tickets. “I directly talked to him,” said Lu, “On this issue, you cannot think only about the economic gains, but you also need to consider the politics. You are working with China and have signed the ‘International League of Theaters of the Silk Road.’ There is a great market potential for you to collaborate with China. You should not lose the Chinese market because of (the Shen Yun performance).” China has been promoting the “International League of Theaters of the Silk Road” agreement for exchanges in the field of performing arts as part of its “One Belt and One Road” initiative.

Lu also stated in the call that he worked closely with the theater’s general manager to come up with a good reason (claiming technical difficulty and a time shortage) for cancelling the show. The theater then used that excuse to cancel the performance.

Lu also stated that, after Shen Yun reported the cancellation in a local newspaper, he worked with the theater to come up with responses. “Our initial thought was to avoid making it a hot issue. Stay with the technical reason.”

The recorded phone conversation with Lu Fan is available on the Epoch Times’ website.

Source: Epoch Times, January 28, 2019
http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/19/1/28/n11008988.htm

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

World’s Second Largest Mobile Operator Put Huawei Equipment on Hold

Well-known Chinese news site Sohu recently reported that (the British conglomerate) Vodafone, the world’s second largest mobile network operator, announced its policies on Huawei equipment. It will put all the core network deployment of Huawei equipment on hold until the western countries resolve their issue and concerns on Huawei products. However, Vodafone also explained that if a permanent ban on Huawei is put in place, the impact on the European communications industry will be quite tangible. It may cause increased costs and delays on network deployments. A Huawei’s spokesperson expressed his understanding of Vodafone’s temporary decision and his appreciation of Vodafone’s support. The two companies started their partnership in 2007. It seems Vodafone is surrendering to the pressure from the governments. Vodafone’s 2018 third quarter performance was not satisfactory.

Source: Sohu, January 27, 2019
http://www.sohu.com/a/291481814_334198?scm=1002.0.0.0

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Information/Technology

Deutsche Welle: More People in Hong Kong Intend to Immigrate Overseas

Deutsche Welle reported that the Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies conducted a survey in Hong Kong in December 2018. The survey found that about one-third of the Hong Kong residents who responded said that they plan to immigrate if they have the opportunity. The main driving factors were dissatisfaction with local political disputes, a serious social split, and local living conditions. The respondents consisted of 708 people, age 18 or above. The results showed that 34 percent of the respondents said that if they had the opportunity, they would immigrate or move to another region. The results were similar to a survey conducted in 2017 which showed 33.1 percent would immigrate. The survey also showed that the public’s attitude towards immigration has become more open and active than it was in the past. Among the citizens with immigration plans, 16.2 percent said they were “prepared,” up 2.8 percentage points from the 13.4 percent who responded to  the survey that took place in the same period in 2017. Among the overall respondents, 5.5 percent said they were “prepared,” which was higher than the 4.5 percent in 2017. According to the survey, 19 percent of the respondents with immigration intentions thought that Canada was the ideal place for immigration for Hong Kong residents, followed by Australia and Taiwan, accounting for 18 percent and 11 percent respectively. The rest of the respondents did not identify destinations for immigration.

The survey also rated Hong Kong’s suitability for living. The results showed that the average score of the respondent’s who considered Hong Kong “livable” was 62.1 out of 100, which was lower compared to 63.9 in 2017. Respondents with immigration intentions said that the main factor is that the living space outside of Hong Kong is much bigger.

Another phenomenon was that, in recent years, the intention to immigrate among young people has been on the rise. The Deutsche Welle article quoted comments the director of Hong Kong Polytechnic University research center made during the interview. He said that many of the young people who have not yet graduated from college have already hoped to save enough money as soon as possible to apply for immigration to countries such as Taiwan, the U.S. and Canada. This has much to do with the change in the political environment in recent years. After the “umbrella movement,” the political atmosphere in society has been low. Young people are very dissatisfied with the status quo of the society, but they are unable to change it. In addition, they felt that the pressure and the cost of living in Hong Kong is too high. According to the latest statistics, if a family saves all of their income, it will take 19 years to buy a home . Many of them felt that there is no hope in Hong Kong.

Source: Deutsche Welle, January 26, 2019
https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%AF%B9%E7%8E%B0%E7%8A%B6%E5%A4%B1%E6%9C%9B-%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E5%B9%B4%E8%BD%BB%E4%BA%BA%E7%A7%BB%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E5%90%91%E5%A2%9E%E5%8A%A0/a-47175586-2

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

CNA: The U.S. House Unanimously Supported Taiwan’s Return to WHO

The primary Taiwanese news agency CNA (The Central News Agency) recently reported that the U.S. House of Representatives just passed a resolution unanimously supporting Taiwan’s return to the World Health Organization (WHO). The resolution is still pending in the Senate. The resolution asked the Secretary of State to assist Taiwan to regain its observer status with the WHO. Since 2017, Taiwan has not been invited to the World Health Assembly (WHA) as an observer. The resolution required the Secretary of State to explain the reason if Taiwan is not invited. The U.S. Department of State has been sticking to the principle of supporting Taiwan’s effort to participate in international organizations. Last year when the U.S Secretary of Health and Human Services, Alex Azar, attended the WHA, he pointed out that Taiwan should not be excluded from WHO and he also expressed his disappointment.

Source: CNA, January 23, 2019
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/201901230015.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations

Chen Zhu: WRSA to Strengthen People-to-People Diplomacy

The Western Returned Scholars Association (WRSA), also known as the Overseas-educated Scholars Association of China (OSAC), is a Chinese government-affiliated entity consisting of over 40,000 Chinese scholars and researchers who have studied outside of China. The Secretariat of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCCCP) heads the WRSA and the CCCCP‘s United Front Work Department now manages it.

On the evening of January 25th, Chen Zhu, vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress and the president of WRSA, attended WRSA’s 2019 New Year’s Gala and delivered a speech.

Chen said that, in 2018, WRSA did many explorations into carrying out people-to-people diplomacy and promoting China’s opening up policy to the world. At the “Third Sino-French Cultural Forum” in Xi’an, more than 600 representatives from various circles of China and France attended and reached a consensus on the “One Belt, One Road” initiative. The 16th “21st Century China Forum” was held in Switzerland, where the Chinese and Swiss guests had in-depth exchanges about the “Innovation, Cooperation, and Community of a Shared Future for Mankind.” The first Sino-German Science and Technology Forum in Germany proactively promoted the further pragmatic cooperation between China and Germany in science and technology.

Chen added, “At present, the world is facing a change that hasn’t happened over the past 100 years. The countries around the world are increasingly interdependent and form a Community of a Shared Future for Mankind in which we all have a stake in each other’s future. In 2019, the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, WRSA will vigorously carry out brand name people-to-people diplomatic activities. They include the 4th Sino-French Cultural Forum in France; the 17th “21st Century China Forum” in the UK; the 2nd International Think Tank Forum in Beijing; and the China-US Economic and Trade Forum in Guangzhou. At the same time, we will further strengthen foreign exchanges and increase connections, communication, and cooperation with foreign embassies, consulates, NGOs, and chambers of commerce.”

In 2013, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, attended the 100th anniversary of the establishment of WRSA and required that the WRSA become the “fresh blood of people-to-people diplomacy.” Subsequently, in 2016, the General Office of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCCCP) issued the “Opinions on Strengthening the Development of the Western Returned Scholars Association (Overseas-educated Scholars Association of China,” a very first and milestone document that the CCCCP issued regarding the work of overseas students.

Source: The Paper, January 26, 2019
https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_2909426

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Chinese Economy Is Increasingly Dependent on Real Estate Market

Security Times reported that, in the first 11 months of 2018, the sales of housing reached 12.95 trillion yuan ($1.94 trillion), breaking the 10 trillion mark for the third consecutive year. In the article, it stated that, as the real estate industry has been growing, domestic economic land dependence has become more and more serious. Looking at the ratio of housing sales revenue to GDP over the years, in 2017, the ratio reached 16.16 percent. This data means that real estate generated approximately 16 yuan per 100 yuan of GDP.

In 2009, the domestic housing sales ratio and the ratio of real estate development investment to GDP, both exceeded 10 percent for the first time in history. It is known that 2009 was the first year that the 4 trillion economic stimulus plan was launched. Between 2008 and 2017, sales of housing only declined. In 2014 and in 2017 it increased by more than 433 percent compared to 2008, while total real estate investment surged to nearly 11 trillion yuan in 2017, an increase of 252 percent.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, sales of housing in the first 11 months of 2018 reached 12.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.1 percent. If we use 10 percent of the growth in housing sales for the full year of 2018 and a GDP growth rate of 6.5 percent, the ratio of housing sales to GDP would have reached a record 16.7 percent last year. Meanwhile according to the statistical data, in recent years, the ratio of state-owned land use rights as a percentage of national finance revenue, has continued to exceed 20 percent, or even 34 percent. Taking 2017 as an example, the state-owned land use rights transfer accounted for 28.97 percent of the national fiscal revenue. This data means that the government has generated 29 yuan per 100 yuan in revenue from sale of the land.

Source: Security Times, January 18, 2019
http://news.stcn.com/2019/0118/14807368.shtml

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources