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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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Survey: German Companies in China Face Stiff Competition, Geopolitical Risks, and Economic Headwinds

A survey by the German Chamber of Commerce Abroad found that 46% of German companies operating in China believe that their Chinese competitors will become leaders in their respective industries within the next 5 years. Some 37% of surveyed companies feel that innovativeness in the Chinese market makes doing business in China increasingly attractive, and 11% of German automotive companies in China view their Chinese competitors as already being the innovation leaders in their industry.

About 83% of German companies surveyed believe that China’s economy is declining, though 64% anticipate this downward trend being just a temporary 2-3 year slowdown. Some 42% of respondents expect positive developments in Chinese industry this year.

The investment outlook among surveyed companies was mixed – 54% think that China’s investment appeal is falling, while a similar percentage plan to increase investment in China over the next 2 years. Risks are top of mind, with about 37% of respondents reportedly taking action to mitigate geopolitical risks and some 20% taking action to mitigate risks related to China’s economy.

Source: German Chamber of Commerce in China, January 24, 2024
https://china.ahk.de/market-info/economic-data-surveys/business-confidence-survey-1

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

RFA: China Jailed More Journalists in 2023 Than Any Other Country

Radio Free Asia (RFA) recently reported on a study by The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), an international human rights organization, saying that 44 journalists were imprisoned in China in 2023, more than in any other country. Out of the 44 imprisoned Chinese journalists, 19 were of the Uyghur ethnic group. According to the CPJ report, “censorship makes the exact number of journalists jailed there notoriously difficult to determine, but Beijing’s media crackdown has widened in recent years.” When the CPJ report was released, Jimmy Lai, one of the representatives of press freedom in Hong Kong and the former founder of Apple Daily, was on trial in Hong Kong facing accusations of anti-state crimes. He had been subject to detention in prison for more than 1,140 consecutive days.

The report pointed out that the Chinese government has a tendency to charge journalists with “working against the state.” In 2023, three-fifths of new cases brought against journalists in China involved charges of espionage and incitement, separatism, or subversion of state power. This trend of bringing anti-state charges against journalists reflects the Chinese government’s attitude towards freedom of speech — it wantonly uses the party-state judicial apparatus to directly punish those who use speech in a manner that it deems unfavorable. Criminal charges are often brought on the basis of speech or reporting alone.

It is worth noting that China’s amended Counterespionage Law, which took effect on July 1, 2023, raised concern among members of the press at the time. Since Chinese law has always been vague about what constitutes threats “related to national security and interests,” it is difficult for Chinese and foreign journalists operating in China to gain clarity and feel secure in the reporting work they do.

Sources:

RFA, January 19, 2024
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/renquanfazhi/wy-01192024115907.html

CPJ, January 18, 2024

2023 prison census: Jailed journalist numbers near record high; Israel imprisonments spike

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics Social Stability

Chinese Officials Disciplined for Reading “Politically Problematic” Books

Chinese media have reported that several recently-arrested provincial and municipal officials were accused of “reading books and magazines with serious political problems.” Such offenses have been cited alongside more common corruption charges such as acceptance of bribes. The “problematic books”  in question include publications and e-books of foreign origin. Government reports about officials accused of such behavior have been published on the websites of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) and China’s National Supervisory Commission.

One example concerns former Guiyang City deputy mayor Lin Gang, who was expelled from the Communist Party and from public office for “unlawfully seeking benefits for others, illegally accepting property, and confronting the organization’s scrutiny.” He was additionally accused of “not believing in Marxism-Leninism, believing in ghosts and gods, participating in superstitious activities, and reading e-books and magazines with serious political issues for a long time.” Other officials recently accused include a former water company deputy general manager, a former deputy secretary of the Guizhou Provincial Party Committee for Political and Legal Affairs, the former deputy governor of Guizhou Province, and a recently expelled Shanxi City deputy mayor. All have faced charges of possession or reading of “politically-problematic” books or magazines originating from outside of China.

Taiwan’s Central News Agency noted that calling out officials for reading questionable publications or e-books has historically been quite rare, although there have been a few prior such cases.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), January 30, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202401300029.aspx

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

Beijing Office Vacancies Hit 13-Year High as Demand Falls in Slowing Economy

Demand for office space in Beijing has fallen a;s China’s economy weakens and companies are becoming more conservative about expansion. According to Caixin.com, the vacancy rate for Beijing office space has hit a 13-year high of 20.4%. This is the first time in recent years that the rate has topped 20%.

The shrinking technology industry in Beijing, coupled with conservative growth strategies and cost-cutting measures adopted by companies facing stiff economic headwinds, have combined to dampen office rental demand. According to the Caixin report, the high office vacancy rate in Beijing is mainly attributable to the following factors:

  • companies relocating their headquarters out of Beijing over the past year,
  • downsizing and taking less rental space, and
  • an overall lack of new demand to replace surrendered office space.

The market will likely face further challenges until broader economic growth rebounds. Not only are vacancy rates high, but rents have also fallen. Beijing’s office real estate market is highly dependent on state-owned enterprises, whose long-term tenancy have played an important role in stabilizing the local office rental market.

Source: Radio Free Asia, January 26, 2024
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/Xinwen/5-01262024134758.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China’s 2023 Crude Oil Imports from Russia Exceeded 100 Million Tons for the First Time

China imported more than 107 million tons of crude oil from Russia in 2023, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs reported by well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDQ: SINA). This represents a year-over-year increase of 24 percent in Chinese oil imports from Russia, accounting for approximately 19 percent of China’s total crude oil imports last year and marking the first time in four years that Russia was the biggest source of crude oil supplying China.

In the meantime, Saudi Arabia supplied 85.96 million tons of crude oil to China, a year-over-year decrease of 1.7 percent, ranking second among sources of oil supplying China; Iraq exported 59.26 million tons of crude to China, ranking third; Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates supplied China with 54.79 million tons and 41.82 million tons of crude oil, ranking fourth and fifth, respectively.

Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, Russia has responded to Western sanctions by increasing oil and gas exports to China, India and other Asian countries. In 2023, about 90 percent of Russia’s oil and petroleum exports went to China and India. In the past two years India, has accounted for about 40 percent of Russia’s total crude oil exports, Russia supplied almost no crude oil to India before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

According to the Sina news article, “China and Russia are continuing to deepen energy cooperation.”

Source: Sina, January 22, 2024
https://finance.sina.cn/2024-01-22/detail-inaeknmk4499156.d.html?from=wap

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Lianhe Zaobao: More German Companies Considering Withdrawal from Chinese Market

According to Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao, the latest survey by the German Chamber of Commerce in China found that the number of German companies withdrawing or considering abandoning the Chinese market has doubled in the past four years. The survey’s findings, which come as China’s economy continues to weaken, highlight the challenges facing German companies operating in China. Top concerns cited by German companies include increased competition from local Chinese companies, unfair restrictions on market access, economic headwinds, and geopolitical risks.

The survey was conducted from September 5 to October 6 of 2023, with a total of 566 member companies polled. About two percent of German companies in China said they were selling the Chinese arms of their business, and seven percent said they were considering doing so. In contrast, the same survey conducted in 2020 showed that only four percent of German companies operating in China had exited or were considering an exit from China.

According to the survey, 44 percent of responding German companies have taken specific measures to address the risks of operating in China, including establishment of alternative supply chains that are independent of China. Another 54 percent of responding companies believe that the attractiveness of investment in China is declining.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, January 25, 2024
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/finance/china/story20240125-1464321

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

RMB Takes Top Spot on Moscow Currency Exchange for 2023

According to reports from Russian media, in 2023, the trading volume of the Chinese yuan (RMB) on the Moscow Exchange exceeded that of the US dollar, accounting for 42 percent of the total foreign exchange trading volume.

The yuan’s trading volume reached 34.15 trillion rubles, three times the previous year’s volume of 10.25 trillion rubles. The trading volume of the US dollar was about 32.49 trillion rubles, constituting less than 40 percent of the exchange’s total trading volume. The trading volume of the euro was 14.6 trillion rubles, accounting for less than 18 percent and ranking third on the exchange. In 2022, the combined trading share of the US dollar and the euro on the Moscow Exchange was 87%.

Starting on December 4, 2023, the Moscow Exchange introduced three new tools for trading the Chinese yuan against the ruble, aiming to enhance the convenience of market participants in currency exchange transactions and reduce trading risks.

Source: People’s Daily, January 20, 2024
http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0120/c1002-40163076.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

People’s Daily: China’s Great Wall Motors Produces Thailand’s First Electric Vehicle

Thailand’s first locally-produced electric vehicles recently rolled off the production line at the Rayong New Energy Automotive Manufacturing Base, a factory operated by China’s Great Wall Motors.

Great Wall Motors acquired the Rayong factory in November 2020, becoming the first Chinese automotive brand to fully enter the Thai market.

The Thai government aims to increase the country’s electric vehicle output to 30% of its total automotive production by 2030. It aims to become the production hub for electric vehicles and components in the ASEAN region.

Source: People’s Daily, January 15, 2024
http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0115/c1002-40158671.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend