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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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Chinese Ship Repeatedly Rams Philippine Ship at Sabina Shoal, Third Such Clash in Two Weeks

There has been another collision between a Chinese ship and a Philippine vessel at the disputed Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea, the third such collision in less than two weeks. Drone footage released by the Philippine government showed multiple Chinese Coast Guard ships surrounding a Philippine Coast Guard ship, with one of the Chinese vessels repeatedly ramming the Philippine vessel.

Initially, the China Coast Guard charged that, on August 31, Philippine Coast Guard ship 9701 (called the Magbanua) had “illegally remained” at Sabina Shoal, dropped anchor, and continued to maneuver provocatively within the lagoon. The coast guard further alleged that the Philippine vessel had intentionally collided with a Chinese Coast Guard ship in an “unprofessional and dangerous manner,” placing full responsibility for the collision on the Philippines.

The Philippine Coast Guard, in a video press conference held on the same day, released drone footage of the collision. The footage showed that China had deployed multiple government and militia vessels to surround the Philippine Magbanua, that Chinese Coast Guard ship 5205 had rammed into the left side of the Philippine ship, and that the Chinese vessel then made several turns to further ram the Philippine ship, causing damage to Magbanua. The Philippine ship ended up with multiple holes in its side. No injuries were reported by the Philippines.

The Philippines reported that the Magbanua had been stationed so as to to prevent China from taking over the Sabina Shoal. The Philippine government expressed that it would not withdraw the boat.

This marks at least the third collision incident between China and the Philippines at Sabina Shoal in less than two weeks. When asked if the Philippine Navy would seek assistance from other countries, the Philippine National Maritime Committee stated that the Philippine Coast Guard would manage the issue and that the Philippine Navy would not be involved.

Course: Radio France International, August 31, 2024
https://www.rfi.fr/cn/中国/20240831-中菲船舰南海2周3次碰撞-菲律宾-不因中方-霸凌-撤离

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Chinese State Media Says Sullivan More Humble During Recent Trip to Beijing

A video published by the account Yuyuantantian (玉渊谭天) analyzed U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s meeting with Wang Yi in Beijing in late August. It claimed that Sullivan “lowered his position” comparing to his past behavior when dealing with China. This media account is owned by China’s state media China Media Group.

The video took the footage of Sullivan during his meeting and made two points: First, Sullivan asked Wang Yi to speak before him. Second, when it was Sullivan’s turn to speak, he repeated what Wang just stated and thus the video called him the “repetition machine.”

Source: CCTV, August 29, 2024
https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=14919843106935979314

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Former Aide to New York Governor Accused of Acting as Chinese Agent

Linda Sun, who served as a staff member for former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and also as the former Deputy Chief of Staff for current Governor Kathy Hochul, has been accused of acting as an agent for China and the Chinese Communist Party. The prosecutor handling the case stated that, starting in 2016, Linda Sun took actions at the request of Chinese consulate officials to limit contact between Taiwanese government officials and the New York Governor’s office. Linda Sun and her husband Chris Hu received substantial financial rewards for their work on behalf of China, including multi-million-dollar deals for Hu’s business activities in China, travel benefits, promotion of a family friend’s business, and the securing of employment for Sun’s cousin in China. The indictment states that the couple “laundered millions of dollars for foreign entities and used the illicit funds to purchase luxury cars and multi-million-dollar properties in New York.”

In January 2019, Linda Sun wrote to a Chinese official expressing how much she valued her relationship with the Chinese consulate, noting that during her time working for Governor Cuomo she had done a great deal to foster the relationship between the state’s government and the consulate. She also mentioned that she had successfully blocked all contact between the New York state government and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office, rejecting all requests from that office.

Linda Sun’s assistance to Beijing included her arranging for Governor Cuomo to attend a “SelectUSA” reception in Washington, D.C., hosted by the Chinese Embassy, rather than an event hosted by Taiwan around June 21, 2016. She also prevented the Governor from meeting with then Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen during her visit to New York in July 2019. Sun joined local Chinese “community leaders” in Manhattan to oppose Tsai’s visit.

After the case against Sun was made public, New York Governor Hochul requested that the State Department expel the Chinese Consul General in New York, Huang Ping. Huang has since left the New York mission, though the U.S. State Department announced that Huang’s departure was not due to an expulsion but rather due to Huang’s reaching the end of a regular rotation term as consul general.

Sources:
1. VOA, September 4, 2024
https://www.voachinese.com/a/former-new-york-governor-aide-linda-sun-prevented-cuomo-from-meeting-tsai-ing-wen-20240903/7770612.html
2. Politico, September 4, 2024
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/04/hochul-chinese-consul-general-00177319

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations

RFI Chinese: 76.6 Percent of Taiwanese Oppose Reunification

Radio France Internationale (RFI) Chinese Edition recently reported that the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation’s latest poll results showed that more than 70 percent of Taiwanese people surveyed oppose cross-strait reunification with Mainland China. Around 67 percent of the respondents opposed the idea of a “cross-strait community with a shared future (relationship established by blood)”, and 76.5 percent opposed China’s proposed “unification of the motherland.” Compared with the same survey six years ago, the opponents of these two options increased by 4.9 percent and 12.5 percent, respectively. The Foundation expressed that Taiwanese people’s feelings towards China are currently in an “extremely cold” state.

The foundation’s chairman said that “the vast majority of Taiwanese people are extremely disgusted with the Chinese Communist Party. This phenomenon crosses the boundaries of political parties, generations, genders, education backgrounds, provincial ethnic groups, social classes and geographical regions.”

Chosun Ilbo reported that a 1996 survey showed that 44.8 percent of Taiwan residents supported cross-strait reunification at the time.

Many analysts believe that, given such negative sentiment among Taiwanese people, China will increase military pressure across the Taiwan Strait in order to maintain its influence over Taiwan. Meanwhile Taiwan will likely avoid provoking China in the short term.

It is reported that President Lai Ching Te will visit Central and South America in early September but has canceled his original plan to visit the United States during that trip.

Source: RFI Chinese, August 28, 2024
https://tinyurl.com/5j9fbvky

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

CNA: China’s August PMI Shows Decline for Fourth Consecutive Month

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics has announced August manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) figures. The PMI came in at 49.1 percent, down 0.3 percentage points from July. This marks the fourth consecutive month that China’s PMI has been below the 50-percent line. CNA commented that operating pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises has increased.

The PMI’s production sub-index and new order sub-index came in at 49.8 percent and 48.9 percent, respectively, down 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from July. This indicates that both manufacturer production and market demand have slowed. The PMI of large enterprises remained in the expansion range, at 50.4 percent, a slight decrease of 0.1 percent from July. The PMI sub-indices for small-sized and medium-sized enterprises, on the other hand, were 48.7 percent and 46.4 percent, respectively, down 0.7 and 0.3 percentage points from July. This indicates that small and medium-sized enterprises have been under heavier pressure. In addition, the PMI’s price sub-index continued to fall due to insufficient demand as well as price fluctuations of bulk commodities like crude oil. With a weak housing market and sluggish household consumption, manufacturing has certainly been negatively impacted.

Source: CNA, August 31, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202408310064.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Lianhe Zaobao: “Substitute” Goods Become Trend in China

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that exact, off-brand replicas of some of the world’s most famous fashion items are popping up in the wardrobes of Chinese consumers. The copycat goods range from clones of Lululemon yoga pants to Hermès handbags. They do not bear the branding of the products that they imitate and are much cheaper.

Manufacturers claim these “substitute products” are not “counterfeit” because their quality is comparable to that of the world’s top brands. For example, a herringbone coat from clothing manufacturer Chicjoc claims to use fabrics from the exact same sources as luxury brands Prada and Bottega Veneta, and their leather bags are said to be made of the very same materials as LVMH and Fendi.

As China’s economy slows, consumers continue to look for more cost-effective products and sales of such domestic “substitutes” have soared. According to Lianhe Zaobao, Chinese consumers are embracing a new era of consumption where luxury goods, which traditionally have symbolized social status, are no longer the only acceptable product. Consumers now “tend to shop rationally,” thus promoting the popularity of such “substitute” goods.

Jessica, a 45-year-old programmer at a financial institution, spent RMB 3,700 yuan (around US$522) on WeChat to buy a Hermès-like wallet that would sell for thousands of dollars if its likeness were purchased from a genuine Hermès counter. She said that the leather of the bag was soft and the stitching was exquisite. It “exceeded her expectation in every aspect” and she said she plans to buy more such products.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, August 31, 2024
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/china/story20240831-4585205

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Chinese Tech Giants Intensify Lobbying Efforts in Europe: Huawei and TikTok’s Growing Influence

According to LobbyControl, a non-government organization that monitors lobbying in Germany and other parts of Europe, China’s Huawei spends €3 million annually on lobbying in Brussels and has 12 full-time lobbyists in the EU. Their focus has been on gaining access to 5G network construction, especially in Germany. Huawei has also implemented “youth sponsorship and scholarship” programs to improve its image.

TikTok spends €1.25 million on lobbying in Brussels, employing five full-time lobbyists. In Germany, they spend about €200,000 and have three full-time representatives. TikTok has invested heavily in advertising and sponsorships to enhance its reputation.

Both companies are members of various professional associations in the EU and Germany, aiming to expand their influence. Relationships with think tanks and friendship associations also play crucial roles in their lobbying efforts.

LobbyControl concludes that Chinese tech companies are intensifying their lobbying efforts in the EU, creating complex networks that sometimes lack transparency. While not as aggressive as American tech companies, Chinese firms are becoming increasingly active and influential. They receive support from official institutions within China as well as from German industry.

The report predicts that more Chinese tech companies will enter the European market in the coming years, potentially leading to large-scale lobbying activities if EU policies conflict with their interests. LobbyControl pledges to monitor these developments and push for increased transparency and anti-corruption measures.

Source: Deutsche Welle, August 20, 2024
https://p.dw.com/p/4jgTv

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

German Investment in China Surges Despite Government Warnings

German direct investment in China has seen a significant uptick in 2023, defying the German government’s calls for economic diversification and reduced dependence on China. According to data from the German central bank, German direct investment in China reached €7.3 billion in the first half of 2023 alone, already surpassing the €6.5 billion recorded for the entire year of 2022.

This trend stands in stark contrast to the German government’s new China strategy which, due to geopolitical concerns, advocates for reduced reliance on the Asian economic powerhouse. German media analysis reveals a complex picture of motivations for and consequences following this investment surge.

Major German companies, particularly automakers like Volkswagen, appear to be disregarding government warnings about geopolitical risks. Many are adopting an “in China, for China” strategy, focusing on localizing production and supply chains to serve the Chinese market directly.
Interestingly, the bulk of these investments stem from profits earned within China, with relatively little new capital flowing from Germany. This suggests a self-reinforcing cycle of investments and returns within the Chinese market.

Some experts have expressed concern that German businesses may have not fully internalized the lessons of the Ukraine war and Germany’s previous overdependence on Russia. They warn of potential risks should China-Taiwan tensions escalate, risks which could have devastating consequences for companies heavily invested in China.

In explaining their increased investment, German firms cite China’s importance as a growth market. They argue that investing in China doesn’t necessarily mean abandoning operations in Germany. Critics contend that this strategy might ultimately benefit job creation in China more than in Germany. Domestic factors in Germany, such as high taxes, bureaucratic hurdles, and a growing shortage of skilled workers, are also pushing companies to look eastward for investment opportunities.

Source Radio France International, August 20, 2024
https://rfi.my/AtDa

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend