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China’s Reaction to Trump’s Election Win

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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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A Local Government Urged its Employees to Buy Homes, Help Prop Up Struggling Housing Market

The government of Chikan District in Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province, China, issued a letter on February 19th urging government employees and state-owned enterprises to buy homes in order to boost the struggling local real estate market. The initiative comes as China’s housing market slump continues and governments at all levels have introduced policies to try to stabilize the property sector.

The letter was sent out by the Chikan District 2024 Lunar New Year Activities Preparatory Committee Command Office. It refers to the current sluggish state of China’s real estate market and says that the Chikan District government has been working on multiple fronts to revitalize the sector, including entering negotiations with real estate firms to offer benefits and discounted “one-price special offer housing” to residents.

The stated goal of the letter was to encourage civil servants and state employees to “take the lead in consumption” and “be the role model” in home-buying so as to revive the real estate industry and restore market confidence. From February 21 to 23, the district will hold a real estate and home decoration exhibition focused on providing preferential housing to potential home buyers, offering deep discounts and concessionary policies.

The letter urges all government organs, enterprises, and institutions to fully mobilize their staff to seize this “favorable opportunity” and proactively purchase housing according to their needs. It also asks them to promote Chikan District to their friends and relatives and encourage them to live in and buy homes in Chikan, sharing in the district’s economic development.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), February 20, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202402200334.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China’s MSS Calls for Heightened Cybersecurity to Combat Foreign “Cyber Spies”

Chinese officials are pushing a society-wide “anti-espionage” campaign targeting the cyber sector. China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) says that cyberspace has become an “important battleground” for foreign spy agencies conducting espionage against China, worsening the country’s cybersecurity.

A recent MSS article titled “How Do ‘Cyber Spies’ Take Advantage of the Situation?” says foreign “cyber spies” targeting Chinese organizations and enterprises have been able to exploit security oversights, workplace negligence, and employees’ “pursuit of convenience.” By various means, they attack information systems to establish hidden data channels and steal sensitive data, jeopardizing China’s data and network security.

The article cites several cases. One involves a military-civilian enterprise whose outdated, vulnerable software systems were hacked by “cyber spies.” They allegedly stole important production, business, and customer data, threatening military tech development and security.

The article also says that foreign “cyber spies” heavily target Chinese “software supply chain” companies via phishing and network scanning. In particular, they steal secrets by attacking system administrators who are authorized to manage networks.

The article concludes by stressing the importance of preventative measures to promote counterintelligence security. It urges key Chinese units to strengthen their daily security management of technology per preventative counterespionage requirements and standards. The goal is to bolster prevention measures for key department networks, facilities, and information systems.

Source: Radio Free Asia, February 16, 2024
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/Xinwen/1-02162024104133.html

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

CCP Expands Military Recruitment, Especially in Rural Areas

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is expanding its military recruitment, particularly in rural areas.

Recently-leaked CCP recruitment documents state that the CCP’s recruiting focus should be on college students, while also recruiting widely in the countryside, “leaving no dead zones” (no unrecruited rural areas). For those Chinese citizens who leave their city of residence to travel for work or school, it is mandatory that they register with the military regarding their travel plans. Expert observers believe this expanded recruitment activity is preparation for large-scale war.

The CCP is focused on recruiting college graduates, who are suitable for adaptation to modern information warfare. Rural recruits are also targeted to provide a large pool of soldiers whose casualties may have less immediate economic and political impact. There are reports that the CCP has been recruiting discharged soldiers back into service only 5 years after they leave the military, as well as relaxing requirements to allow military service by people with criminal records.

New military recruitment regulations enacted in May 2022 have enabled this expansion. The new regulations include allowing retired soldiers to re-enlist, as well as directives to recruit students with high-tech skills. The CCP has completed a nationwide military service registration covering the country’s entire population, signaling preparation for war.

According to expert Yuan Hongbing, a Chinese legal expert living in exile in Australia, the CCP under Xi Jinping is waiting to see what will happen in the 2024 US presidential election. The CCP believes that, regardless of who wins, the result will divide America for years, creating a window of opportunity for the CCP to attack Taiwan. Yuan says China’s war preparations are likely focused on seizing this window of time in 2025-2027. Expanded recruitment from rural areas in particular will provide “cannon fodder” for large-scale combat operations against Taiwan planned for this period.

Source: Epoch Times, February 12, 2024
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/24/2/12/n14179638.htm

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

Two Chinese Fishermen Drown in Taiwanese Waters, Beijing and Taiwan Respond

There have been many instances of mainland-Chinese fishermen entering Taiwanese waters using “three-no” vessels (i.e. boats without a name, without a vessel certificate, and without a registered port). On February 14, a “three-no” vessel went fishing in Taiwanese waters near Beiding Island, Kinmen (Taiwan). As the Taiwanese coast guard approached the boat, the Chinese boat capsized while attempting to flee. Two of the four Chinese nationals died by drowning, and the other two were arrested by Taiwanese authorities.

On February 17th, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office issued a press release stating that there was no such thing as “prohibited or restricted waters” in the strait between Kinmen and Xiamen (mainland). On February 18, Zhu Fenglian, a spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office, alleged that the Taiwanese coast guard had “violently driven away” the mainland-Chinese fishing boats, resulting in the deaths of the two fishermen. “It was a callous act and caused strong indignation among people from all walks of life in mainland China, seriously harming the feelings of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and seriously damaging cross-strait relations. The Taiwan Affairs Office firmly supports the decision of the mainland China’s maritime police department on conducting routine law enforcement patrols, to maintain the normal order of the relevant waters and ensure the safety of mainland fishermen’s lives and property.” (Editor’s notes: Beijing’s patrol boats are much larger than Taiwan’s. China has been using large maritime patrol boats to intimidate smaller Philippine patrol vessels in the ongoing Spratly Islands dispute in the South China Sea).

On February 18, Taiwan’s United Daily News reported on a press release by Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council responding to the comments from Beijing. According to the article, the press release stated that “the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not affiliated with each other. According to the regulations of Taiwan’s Cross-Strait Act, mainland vessels are not allowed to enter restricted or prohibited waters of Taiwan without permission. Our competent authority will continue to enforce the law by expelling or detaining trespassing vessels to safeguard the rights and interests of fishermen. This has been the case in the past, is the case now, and will continue to be the case in the future.”

Sources:
1. People’s Daily, February 18, 2024
http://tw.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0218/c14657-40178728.html
2. United Daily News (Taiwan), February 18, 2024
https://money.udn.com/money/story/5603/7775972

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

Video Clip Containing Pro-Democracy Innuendo Spread Widely in China on Lunar New Year

China has produced many TV dramas about the the Chinese Civil War (1946-1949), when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) defeated the Nationalist Party (Kuomintang) and took control of mainland China.

During the 2024 Chinese New Year, people spread a video clip of the TV drama Bright Sword, where a CCP military commander motivates his soldiers to fight in the civil war. In the video the commander says, “People are struggling to survive, and inflation is rampant. Shouldn’t we overthrow such a dictatorial, corrupt, and dark government? Brothers, now is the time to decide the future of a nation. Every Chinese with a conscience should make his choice. I, Zhao Gang, make this choice: to demand democracy, demand freedom, overthrow the dictatorial regime, topple the fascist dictatorship, and establish a new China where the people are in charge.”

The clip is now spreading because what was said in the video can be interpreted as referring to the current leadership of China by the CCP.

Source: X Platform, February 10, 2024

Briefings | | |   @CS Social Stability

Hong Kong Crowd Wards Off Arrest of Street Musician Playing Anti-CCP Protest Song

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has broken its promise regarding the principle of “One Country Two Systems,” putting Hong Kong under tighter and tighter control. The people of Hong Kong, however, have not surrendered to political pressure from the CCP.

Earlier this month a youtube video was published showing a street musician playing the English version of the anti-CCP protest song “Glory to Hong Kong” (愿荣光归香港) with his guitar and amplifier.

Several police officers surrounded the young man and yelled at him to stop playing. As the officers began to manhandle the musician, bystanders that had gathered began to shout out in the man’s defense, and one officer is seen looking around nervously. The police eventually backed off as a substantial crowd had gathered and many people were shouting that the man had not committed any crime. The man resumed playing, this time singing the Chinese version of the song, and many people joined in chorus as the officers stood by and watched. At the end of the video, the man is seen leaving with his belongings as the police continue to stand by.

The song “Glory to Hong Kong” became well known during the 2019-2020 protests in Hong Kong. It has been called “the anthem of Hong Kong’s anti-CCP protests.”

Sources:

YouTube, February 6, 2024

“Glory to Hong Kong,” WIkipedia, retrieved February 20, 2024
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glory_to_Hong_Kong

Briefings | | |   @CS Social Stability

UDN: North Korea’s Kim Yo-Jong Unofficially Wants to Invite Japanese Prime Minister to Visit

United Daily News (UDN), one of the primary Taiwanese news groups, reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s sister Kim Yo-jong recently made an unusual comment, saying that North Korea is open to improving relations with Japan. She hinted that North Korea may invite the Japanese leader to visit Pyongyang in the future. The remarks came in response to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida saying not long ago that there has been a strong need to change the current relationship between the two countries.

North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency reported that Kim Yo Jong said that, as long as Japan abandons its bad habit of criticizing North Korea’s exercise of legitimate defense rights and stops talking about the “already resolved” issue of Japanese abductions by North Korea, the two countries can work together. However, Kim Yo Jong emphasized that this was just her personal opinion (rather than an statement from the North Korean government).

In January, Kim Jong-un sent a rare telegram to Kishida expressing condolences after the Noto earthquake in Japan. Analysts say it may be that North Korea is signaling desire for improved relations with Japan.

The Japanese government has been analyzing the content of Kim Yo Jong’s statements and has declined to comment for the time being.

The senior official for North Korea affairs at the U.S. State Department said that the U.S. supports all diplomacy and dialogue between Japan and North Korea. An official from South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that communications between Japan and North Korea should be conducive to denuclearization of North Korea as well as to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.

Source: UDN, February 17, 2024
https://udn.com/news/story/6809/7774277

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Sohu: U.S. Wafer Fab Construction Near Slowest in the World

Well-known Chinese news site Sohu (NASDAQ: SOHU) recently reported on a study done by Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service Think Tank regarding the speeds at which various countries have been able to complete construction of silicon wafer fabs (integrated circuit fabrication facilities). Sohu reported that the construction speed of wafer fabs in the United States is among the slowest in the world, and that Mainland China is quickly catching up in speed to the U.S. Below are some key points from the article:

Since the 1890s, a total of 635 new wafer fabs have been built around the world, with an average construction time of 682 days. The fastest construction time for wafer fabs is in Japan, which takes an average of 584 days to construct its factories , followed by South Korea at 620 days, Taiwan at 654 days, Europe and the Middle East at 690 days, and Mainland China at 701 days. In the United States, it takes up to 736 days, which is only slightly faster than the 781 days in Southeast Asia.

In 1990s and 2000s, wafer fabs construction in the United States took an average of only 675 days. By the 2010s, the fab construction speed had slowed to 918 days. Meanwhile, Mainland China and Taiwan shortened their fab construction times to 675 and 642 days, respectively. Entering the 2020s, the construction of wafer fabs in the United States is even more difficult and often cannot be completed on schedule. For example, TSMC’s Fab #21 in Arizona has been postponed for another year; Intel’s factory in Ohio has been postponed from 2025 to the end of 2026; and Samsung’s factory in Texas has been postponed to 2025.

The biggest factor leading to slowdown of fab construction in the United States is the various complicated laws and regulations, which may seem to be of benefit to the public, but which seriously hinder the development of semiconductors.

Source: Sohu, February 17, 2024
https://www.sohu.com/a/758247853_163726

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Information/Technology