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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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Impoverished Beijing Graduate Starves to Death in Xi’an, Highlighting Social Inequality and Job Struggles in China

A widely circulated article on Chinese social media disclosed the story of a woman born in a poor, rural area, who graduated from a prestigious university in Beijing. She was not able to find a job, however, and she repeatedly took the public sector tests in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and achieved the highest possible score several times. Nevertheless, she was not hired due to lacking social connections. She eventually went to Xi’an City, Shaanxi Province, to seek employment. She rented an apartment but, due to a lack of money, she starved to death at the age of 33. Her body was discovered approximately 20 days after her death.

Source: Epoch Times, August 18, 2024
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/24/8/18/n14313413.htm

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Chinese Coast Guard Attacks Philippine Supply Ship in South China Sea Amid Rising Tensions

The Philippine government stated on August 25 that a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries ship was rammed and hit with a water-cannon by a Chinese coast guard vessel earlier that day while delivering food, fuel, and medical supplies to Filipino fishermen at Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea. While the Philippine supply ship sailed from Half Moon Shoal to Sabina Shoal, the Chinese vessels’ “dangerous maneuvers” caused the Philippine ship’s engine to fail, forcing it to abandon the supply mission.

In response, Gan Yu, a spokesperson for the China Coast Guard, issued a statement claiming that a Philippine vessel “illegally entered the waters near China’s Xianbin Reef in the Nansha Islands without permission from the Chinese government, and that the China Coast Guard took control measures according to the law.” The statement accused the Philippine vessel of “ignoring China’s stern warnings” and “deliberately colliding with the Chinese coast guard ship in an unprofessional and dangerous manner.” It stated that “responsibility [for the incident] lies entirely on the Philippine side.”

In April of this year, the Philippine Coast Guard accused Chinese vessels of dumping crushed coral on Sabina Shoal, a possible attempt at land reclamation. Since then, the Philippine Coast Guard has stationed one of its largest patrol ships at the shoal to monitor the area.

There have been several intense and dangerous confrontations between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea in August, including a confrontation between vessels near the Second Thomas Shoal; two Chinese military aircraft firing flares at a Philippine Air Force patrol plane over Scarborough Shoal on August 8, and a second occurrence of Chinese aircraft firing flares at a Philippine plane over the Subi Reef on August 22.

Source: VOA, August 25, 2024
https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-philippines-clash-in-south-china-sea-despite-efforts-to-rebuild-trust-20240825/7756250.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Public Questions China’s New Housing Pension System, Suspects Disguised Property Tax Program

China’s Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Dong Jianguo, stated at a press conference on August 23 that the government is studying the establishment of a system for building inspections, housing pensions, and housing insurance. Currently, 22 cities, including Shanghai, are conducting trials. He stated that, when purchasing a property, homeowners will have already set up a personal account for payment into a public “residential special maintenance fund.” The focus of the trial is for the government to establish such a fund.

Netizens have widely discussed this “Housing Pension System” topic, speculating that the system could be a disguised form of property tax. The official “Construction Magazine” WeChat account of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development published an editorial on August 26 stating that Vice Minister Dong’s original statement regarding the new pilot program mentioned that “the focus of the trial is for the government to establish a public account,” and that this public account does not require contributions from the public.

Mainland Chinese netizens are not convinced, however. Some have questioned why there is a rush to raise additional funds as there is already a “residential special maintenance fund” in place.

Source: Epoch Times, August 24, 2024
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/24/8/26/n14317935.htm

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

Chinese Restaurant Industry Faces Crisis: From “Golden Era” to Struggle for Survival

The Chinese restaurant industry is facing significant challenges. For example, Taiwanese dumpling chain restaurant Din Tai Fung will close 14 branches across several cities in China by October 31st. This decision has sparked widespread concern about the industry’s struggles since the pandemic.

China’s restaurant sector is experiencing a collective downturn, despite that fact that COVID-19 restrictions have now been lifted in China. In the first half of 2024, over a million Chinese restaurants closed, nearly doubling the figure seen in 2022. Many business owners have lost their investments and have been forced to exit the market.

Even large restaurant chains are struggling. Nayuki expects losses of 420-490 million yuan (US$59 – 69 million), Haidilao projects losses of at least 260 million yuan (US$36 million), and Luckin Coffee’s profits have dropped by 50% compared to last year.

The industry faces rising costs for taxes, social security, and wages, while prices and profits are declining. Most large restaurant companies are experiencing profit declines, with Xiabu Xiabu seeing the most significant drop – a 133-fold increase in net loss.

Luckin Coffee, despite opening thousands of new stores and increasing revenue by 38%, saw its net profit fall by 50%, illustrating the phenomenon of “increasing revenue but not increasing profit.”

As price wars continue, the Chinese restaurant industry has entered a low-profit era. The once “golden” market is no longer, and experts predict that the situation may become even more challenging in the future.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), August 26, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202408260296.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

RFI Chinese: PwC Expects Six-Month Business Ban from Chinese Authorities

Radio France Internationale (RFI) Chinese Edition recently reported that PwC China told clients it that expects Chinese authorities to impose a six-month business ban starting as early as September. This will be part of punitive measures imposed on PwC following a PwC audit of collapsed Chinese real estate developer Evergrande. China’s securities regulator said in March that Evergrande had reported an inflated revenue of nearly US$80 billion in Mainland China in the two years prior to defaulting on its debt in 2021. The regulators charged that PwC China’s audit of Evergrande’s accounting records had been improper.

PwC’s business ban and a potential hefty fine are probably the toughest action ever taken by Chinese regulators against a Big Four accounting firm. The Chinese government has stepped up scrutiny of the role of auditors in financial scandals, this time in the crisis-ridden real estate sector, which once contributed about a quarter of China’s GDP. PwC China was China’s highest-revenue accounting firm in 2022, with revenue reaching 7.9 billion yuan (around US$1.11 billion). PwC China’s rival Deloitte China was given a US$31 million fine last year for “serious audit deficiencies” related to Deloitte’s audit of China Huarong Asset Management. As part of the penalty imposed by Beijing, Deloitte China suspended operations for three months last year.

Many of PwC’s publicly listed Chinese clients have been banned for three years from cooperating with audit firms sanctioned by the authorities. This year, PwC China lost at least two-thirds of its accounting revenue from its Chinese-listed clients. That being said, Chinese-listed companies and state-owned enterprise clients account for only a minority of PwC China’s revenue; PwC is actively reassuring its largest internationally-listed clients, including internet giants Alibaba and Tencent, that it can complete their 2024 audits work.

Source: RFI Chinese, August 22, 2024
https://tinyurl.com/zdtten7b

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics US-China Relations

RFA: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges Adjust Information Disclosure Mechanism

Radio Free Asia (RFA) recently reported that the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have adjusted their information disclosure mechanisms, ceasing publication of daily net trading volume data and other data starting from August 19. This has cut off information on the flow of foreign funds into China’s A-shares market through the Hong Kong markets. Thus, it is now impossible to calculate the flow of foreign capital in and out of Mainland China.

Under the new reporting mechanism, the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges will not let investors know the net buying and selling data of the overall northbound (direction of mainland) funds or the flows for the top ten active stocks on a given day. The Hong Kong Stock Connect program has been adjusted accordingly.

The RFA quoted a scholar saying that data on foreign investment in China are critical long-term indicators that play an important role in observing the Chinese economy. The Chinese government understands that making the data regarding the country’s stock market more opaque will only lead to faster withdrawal of foreign capital from China, yet it has still taken this step, showing that there must not be much foreign investment left in the Chinese stock market. It seems that China is preparing measures to prevent the further withdrawal of foreign capital. This is just like how China stopped disclosing unemployment data when the unemployment rate was rising sharply.

The new disclosure mechanism makes it easier for the government to fabricate market data in accordance with its political and economic needs, influencing retail investors who do not have a full picture of the market.

Source: RFA, August 19, 2024
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/ec-stockmarket-foreigncapitalwithdraws-08192024053127.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

CNA: TSMC Breaks Ground on German Factory

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that Taiwan’s TSMC recently held a groundbreaking ceremony in Germany to commence construction of its first ever wafer fab on the European continent. German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz attended the ceremony and delivered a speech. EU Executive Committee Chairman Ursula von der Leyen also attended, saying that the development represented a true win-win situation.

Earlier, the EU approved Germany’s subsidy plan for TSMC’s factory construction. Last year, TSMC announced that it would set up a joint venture with Bosch, Infineon and NXP in Dresden, Germany to jointly invest in the European Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (ESMC), with a total investment of approximately 10 billion euros. Scholz said semiconductors were key to Germany’s industrial survival and climate goals, and stressed the importance of increasing production in Germany to make Europe less dependent on other regions in global supply chains.

Germany provided a five-billion-euro subsidy plan to TSMC’s wafer fab joint venture. This is the largest amount of state subsidy currently granted under the European Chips Act, and it is also Germany’s first subsidy program. TSMC funded 70 percent of the ESMC private investment. Nearly 2,000 ESMC employees will be recruited locally.

In order to assist factory construction, hundreds of TSMC engineers will be dispatched to Dresden in the next three to five years. TSMC has launched talent training projects with universities and local governments in Germany. German students will be invited to Taiwan for training at universities and TSMC training facilities.

Source: CNA, August 20, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202408200361.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Information/Technology

The Impact of China’s Consumption Tax Reform

According to a Decision reached during the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, China will “move the collection stage of the country’s consumption tax to later stages,” and will also “gradually  allocate revenue from consumption tax to local governments.” Chinese media outlet The Paper reported that this decision to “delay the collection stage of the consumption tax” is meant to shift the tax source and collection point from the place of production to the place of consumption, meaning that a great part of tax revenue will be collected in the jurisdiction of the end consumer.

This policy change will have two main impacts. First, the base price for the consumption tax will increase from the factory price to the wholesale or retail price, which means that the Chinese government will collect more revenue from consumption tax. Second, the tax source will shift from the place of production to the place of consumption, resulting in a decrease in tax revenue for major production provinces (e.g. Shanghai, Guizhou, Yunnan, Hubei, Hunan) and an increase in tax revenue for provinces with large populations and large amounts of consumption (e.g. Guangdong, Shandong, Henan, Zhejiang, Sichuan).

“Allocating to local governments” means that the central government of China will no longer be the sole beneficiary of such consumption taxes; consumption tax revenue will now be shared with local governments. The northeastern, central, and western regions of China are likely to receive greater consumption tax than the eastern regions.

Sources:
1. The Paper, July 19, 2024
https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_28110425
2. Radio Free Asia, July 22, 2024
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/lu-china-third-plenum-tax-policy-07222024155434.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics