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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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Market for Falsified Chinese Birth Certificates Comes to Light

Numerous Chinese medical institutions have recently been exposed for illegally selling birth certificates, revealing their pivotal role in an underground market for baby trafficking and surrogacy. Recent arrests in Xiangyang City, Hubei Province, and reports from Nanning City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and Foshan City, Guangdong Province, highlight a widespread issue.

The birth certificate market has historical roots, enabling families to violate family planning policies (e.g. the one-child policy) or helping human traffickers to create identities for abducted children. There is an increasing trend of parents selling their biological children for profit.

Surrogacy fees range from 400,000 to 550,000 yuan (US$ 56,000 to 78,000), with an additional 10,000 yuan cost for birth certificate processing. This market involves forged documents, misrepresented information, and collaboration between medical institutions and intermediaries. In some cases, corrupt regulatory bodies are implicated as well.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 20, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202311200298.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Number of Chinese Students in U.S. Drops for Fourth Consecutive Year

According to a Caixin.com report, data shows that the number of Chinese international students studying in the United States has declined for four years in a row. In the past academic year, there were 289,000 Chinese students in the U.S., accounting for 27% of all international students in the country. This represents a small 0.2% decrease compared to the previous year.

The data comes from the Open Doors 2023 report recently published by the Institute of International Education (IIE). The report found that the total number of international students in the U.S. reached 1.05 million last year, a 12% increase compared to the year before. Currently, China remains the top source of international students in the U.S., accounting for 27% of all international students. India is next-largest source, accounting for 25% of international students. While the number of Chinese students dropped slightly year-over-year, the number of Indian students rapidly increased, growing by 35%.

The Open Doors report suggested that several factors could be contributing to the decline in Chinese students studying in the U.S., including geopolitical tensions between the two countries and the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on international student mobility over the past few years.

Source: Radio Free Asia, November 22, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/Xinwen/5-11222023124233.html

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Over 3 Million Chinese Take Civil Service Exam in Scramble to Fill Open Government Positions, Setting New Record

There were a record high number of applicants taking this year’s Chinese Civil Service Exam, known as the Guokao. Over 3 million Chinese signed up to take the test, competing for a limited number of job positions the government sector.

On average, there were over 70 candidates competing for every single available position. The most competitive position had 3,572 applicants vying for just 1 opening. Many netizens commented that civil service jobs have become the only viable route for college graduates amid China’s weak economy and grim employment outlook.

Experts say the surge in Guokao applicants is likely tied to post-pandemic economic and hiring difficulties facing China’s private sector. With restaurants forced to slash prices to retain customers and other businesses shutting down, civil service jobs are extremely appealing; they offer stable income and good benefits for life. Some have argued, however, that top talent should not join the government bureaucracy and should instead create value in the private economy.

While economic factors would seem to explain this year’s record high number of exam takers, one researcher cautioned that deeper analysis of candidates’ backgrounds is needed. The increase could also be a “lag effect” from China lifting its zero-COVID policy in 2023.

Besides the record number of Guokao applicants, another noteworthy trend was a reduction in the number of applicants to study at Chinese graduate schools. Chinese youth may now be prioritizing civil service jobs, with all their attendant benefits, over further studies in academia.

Source: Deutsche Welle, November 27, 2023
https://p.dw.com/p/4ZTPO

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China’s Pediatric Wards Overwhelmed by Surge in Childhood Respiratory Illnesses

Taiwan’s Central News Agency reported that respiratory illnesses like mycoplasma pneumonia are currently surging across China, leading to overflowing pediatric wards. Many students are taking sick leave from school. In some areas, nearly half the seats in classrooms are empty, and some schools have temporarily suspended classes entirely due to the high rate of absences.

In Jinan, one parent reported that nearly 50% of the approximately 50 students in their child’s class were out on leave. In Hangzhou, over 20 students in one 36-student elementary school class had fevers, leading to a 2-day class suspension. A Shaoxing elementary school saw over 5 students with fevers above 38 C in one class, prompting a 4-day suspension. An entire class in Taizhou also suspended for 5 days due to students taking leave.

Children are presenting with high fevers upwards of 40C (104 F). The spread of influenza, rhinovirus, Mycoplasma pneumonia, respiratory syncytial virus, adenovirus and other pathogens is hard for parents and students to prevent. Some students have returned from leave only to fall ill again with another virus.

Hospitals have been inundated with pediatric cases. Some images have surfaced on social media of children do their homework while receiving IV treatments. Meanwhile, some localities have prohibited teachers from mandating homework completion for sick students and have advised ill teachers and children not to attend school.

Experts predict that this wave of respiratory disease could continue for some time before improving in the spring when warmer weather arrives. The simultaneous circulation of multiple viruses is making it difficult to accurately forecast the end of the surge.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 28, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202311280381.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

NHK Chinese: Less Than 30 Percent of Japanese Companies Plan to Expand Operations in China

NHK Chinese recently reported on a routine survey by the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO). The survey showed that the number of Japanese companies that believe their business in China will expand in the future has further decreased, falling below 30 percent for the first time since the survey’s inception.

The JETRO annual survey is conducted on Japanese companies investing overseas. The latest result showed that only 27.7 percent of the surveyed companies plan to expand in China within the next one to two years. This figure has fallen rapidly during the past several years — two years ago, 40.9 percent of companies reported plans for expansion in China, and last year the figure was 33.4 percent.

Analysis suggests the following reasons for the decline: China’s economic outlook has become increasingly uncertain; due to the popularity of electric vehicles in China, the market share of Japanese companies that operate in the field of petroleum-fueled vehicles has shrunk.

In this survey, there were a significant increase in the number of Japanese companies that plan to grow their businesses in the Global South, including in India and Brazil. JETRO’s Chairman said that China’s macro economy has slowed down significantly, and that the Chinese market is critical for Japanese companies. Thus, Japanese companies will still need to ensure their presence in the Chinese markets even if they are not optimistic about prospects for business expansion in China.

Source: NHK Chinese, November 21, 2023
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/zh/news/k10014264701000/

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

CBN: 2022 Natural Population Growth Rate was Negative in Twenty Chinese Provinces

Recent data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics shows a decrease in the country’s birth rate and an increase in provinces experiencing negative natural population growth in 2022.

China Business Network (CBN) reported on the new data, which included statistics on the country’s birth rate, death rate and natural population growth rate in 31 provinces. China recorded 9.56 million births in 2022, a decrease of 1.06 million compared with 2021. The birth rate was 6.77 per thousand (6.77‰), a decrease of 0.75 per thousand from 2021. In 2022, the birth rate in nine provinces exceeded eight per thousand (8‰). In 20 provinces, the natural population growth rate was negative. That’s seven provinces more than in the previous year.

According to the official data, Guangdong has been the largest province in terms of births for five consecutive years. Guangdong Province had a birth population of 1.052 million in 2022, making it the only province in China that had an annual birth population exceeding 1 million in each of the years 2020, 2021, and 2022.

Meanwhile, Henan Province, which currently has the largest registered population of any province in China, had a natural growth rate of -0.08‰ last year. This was the first time since 1961 that the Henan’s natural population growth rate has been negative. Data released by the Henan Provincial Bureau of Statistics showed that the number of births in the province decreased by 60,000 compared with 2021.

China’s rate of first-child births has dropped by 51.3 percent over the past six years. In 2022, the number of first-child births in China was 4.41 million, the number of second-child births was 3.72 million, and the number of third-or-later child births was 1.43 million.

Source: CBN, November 20, 2023
https://m.yicai.com/news/101908004.html

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

RFA: China’s Use of Foreign Capital Continues to Fall

Radio Free Asia (RFA) reported that China’s Ministry of Commerce  has released data on foreign direct investment (FDI) in China. Nationwide FDI was RMB 987.01 billion for the first ten months of this year, a year-over-year decrease of 9.4 percent. The decline expanded from the 8.4 percent over the previous nine months, and was the fifth consecutive month of continuous decline.

Foreign investors are pulling more money out of China than they put in. This is happening through repatriation of profits, repayment of intra-company loans, and the sale of assets. The trend reflects that foreign businesses are disillusioned with China’s economic prospects and policy climate.

Some analysts expressed the belief that Xi Jinping’s national security policy has caused a large-scale flight of foreign capital, and that the situation will be difficult to change in the short term. With national security remaining Beijing’s top priority, the downward trend in foreign investment will likely not change any time soon, even if the Chinese government were to launches a gesture promoting foreign investment. China currently faces many economic challenges in many areas, including taxation, technological upgrades, rapid withdrawal of foreign investment, a surge in unemployment, stagnant growth, and decline in international cooperation. These are all dangerous signals regarding the Chinese economy.

China’s high-tech, medical equipment and high-end instrument industries are not doing too poorly in terms of foreign direct investment. Investment into the service industry, however, has taken a big hit, declining by 15.9 percent. The service industry is responsible for more of the country’s employment and accounts for a greater share of GDP than China’s manufacturing sector.

Just a short while ago, China announced that third-quarter foreign investment (in U.S. dollars) was negative for the first time, with a deficit of US$11.8 billion. Meanwhile, the most recent announcement by China’s Ministry of Commerce reported a positive number for foreign direct investment, denominated in RMB. Although calculation using RMB resulted in a positive number, actual U.S.-dollar-denominated foreign direct investment has been negative. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has not released FDI data measured in U.S. dollars since August this year.

Source: RFA, November 20, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/hx1-11202023101220.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Pro-CCP Crowd Attacked Anti-CCP Protesters During Xi Jinping’s Visit to San Francisco

Chinese Embassies and Consulates in the United States organized many Chinese associations and student associations to welcome Xi Jinping when he attended the APEC meeting and the Biden-Xi Summit in San Francisco from November 15 to 17. These pro-Chinese Communist Party (CCP) people outnumbered the anti-CCP protesters by several times. Over a dozen incidents were reported where pro-CCP people attacked anti-CCP protesters and injured them.

A representative of the Chinese Democratic Party, which opposes the CCP and is banned in mainland China, said that 24 of the group’s members were assaulted by individuals associated with pro-CCP overseas groups, resulting in several injuries. The China Democracy and Human Rights Alliance, as well as the Democracy Front, reported that several of their protesters were also assaulted.

Protester Jia Junwei told Voice of America that “They chased me continuously. After surrounding me with the Chinese flag, a woman in her forties or fifties knocked me down. Then, they kicked my head, and used the flagpole to attack my head. Later, I was taken to the hospital.” Hong Kong protester Zhou Qihong, 74, was assaulted twice on November 15 and 17 in different locations by pro-Communist thugs. Topjor Tsultrim, a member of the Free Tibet organization, informed Voice of America, “At least 30 Tibetan protesters were beaten by pro-CCP groups. The attack at the airport protest site on November 17 was the most intense one against the Tibetan protesters. Three young Tibetan university students were attacked by over 20 Chinese individuals with metal rods, resulting in head injuries and broken bones. Eventually, they had to be taken to the hospital. On the same day, several Tibetans were struck with flags, stabbed with iron rods, and women’s hair was pulled. One of our activists was recording everything when her phone was snatched from her and thrown into the river.”

The San Francisco police didn’t arrest any pro-CCP persons. They did arrested protester Jie Lijian, however.

Jie was released from the San Francisco County Jail without bail on November 20. He told Voice of America, “We were peacefully protesting, and people from Chinese overseas groups attacked my back and head with flagpoles and steel pipes. I began vomiting and needed to use the restroom. In the process of finding a restroom, I was isolated and arrested by the police in an alley.” Jie also said, “If I didn’t defend myself in a situation where my head was being attacked with steel pipes, I wouldn’t be here speaking with everyone. I might have been beaten to death by the other party.”

Many human rights activists believe these attacks should not be allowed to happen in the U.S. They show the CCP’s long-armed influence on U.S. soil. Chinese human rights groups and pro-democracy activists have kept tally of beatings and injuries by the pro-CCP groups; they are planning to provide evidence criminal conduct to the FBI and Congress.

Source: Voice of America, November 22, 2023
https://www.voachinese.com/a/congress-urged-to-probe-attacks-on-chinese-dissidents-in-xi-jinping-protest-20231121/7364581.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Government/Politics US-China Relations