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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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Consular Volunteer Programs: Another of the CCP’s Long-Armed Control Mechanisms

According to a report by Spain-based human rights organization Safeguard Defenders, Beijing has established a “Consular Volunteer” mechanism over the past decade. The Consular Volunteer Programs, which operate out of Chinese consulates in foreign countries, engage in information gathering, infiltration, and surveillance globally. Beijing does not notify host countries about such programs, violating the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations. The report follows Safeguard Defenders’ disclosure last year of over 100 overseas police stations established by the Chinese government in more than fifty countries.

Such “Consular Volunteer networks” have been established in several dozen Chinese overseas communities, including in the U.S., Belgium, Sweden, Italy, the U.K., Spain, Greece, Portugal, France, the Czech Republic, Ukraine, Turkey, Chile, Malaysia, Japan, the UAE, South Africa, and other countries across five continents. The report by Safeguard Defenders has released an investigative report titled “China’s Consular Volunteers.”

According to the report, the programs would recruit Chinese overseas individuals, some unpaid but provided with operational expenses directly managed by the consulate. Working as “volunteers,” these individuals are controlled by the Chinese government to engage in the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) united front work.

The CCP’s integraiton of overseas united front networks with consular services has enabled it to systematically obtain personal information, home addresses, and contact details of different targets. The gathered information may be used to systematically harm or manipulate overseas groups or use coercive means against those who have political views unaligned with Beijing.

The Safeguard Defenders report noted that the G7 group issued a joint statement after its May 2023 summit in Hiroshima, explicitly demanding that China comply with the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations. Just a few months later, China’s State Council promulgated a set of “Consular Protection and Assistance Regulations,” effective starting September 1, 2023, which encouraged Chinese overseas consulates to recruit volunteers and to recognize and reward the volunteers’ performance.

Sources:

Radio Free Asia, November 22, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/renquanfazhi/hx2-11222023091732.html

SafeguardDefenders.com, November 21, 2023
https://safeguarddefenders.com/en/blog/chinas-consular-volunteers

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

China’s Seafood Imports from Japan Dropped by More Than 99 Percent

China responded angrily when Japan discharged treated nuclear wastewater into the sea near the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, imposing a comprehensive suspension of Japanese seafood imports since August. The General Administration of Customs of China reported that the total value of seafood imported from Japan to China in October 2023 was 2.4 million yuan (US$ 339,000), a significant decrease of 99.3 percent compared to the same month last year.

The recently-released statistics did not include data regarding September imports specifically. However, subtracting the cumulative value of January to August from the cumulative value for January to September, the remaining amount (which represents September’s seafood imports) was only 60,000 yuan, a drastic year-on-year reduction of 99.98 percent. The drop for August was 67.6 percent.

China has made up for the reduced imports by using domestic products or importing from other countries instead.

Source: Kyodo News, November 19, 2023
https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2023/11/8cbede403e53-1099.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Market for Falsified Chinese Birth Certificates Comes to Light

Numerous Chinese medical institutions have recently been exposed for illegally selling birth certificates, revealing their pivotal role in an underground market for baby trafficking and surrogacy. Recent arrests in Xiangyang City, Hubei Province, and reports from Nanning City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and Foshan City, Guangdong Province, highlight a widespread issue.

The birth certificate market has historical roots, enabling families to violate family planning policies (e.g. the one-child policy) or helping human traffickers to create identities for abducted children. There is an increasing trend of parents selling their biological children for profit.

Surrogacy fees range from 400,000 to 550,000 yuan (US$ 56,000 to 78,000), with an additional 10,000 yuan cost for birth certificate processing. This market involves forged documents, misrepresented information, and collaboration between medical institutions and intermediaries. In some cases, corrupt regulatory bodies are implicated as well.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 20, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202311200298.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Number of Chinese Students in U.S. Drops for Fourth Consecutive Year

According to a Caixin.com report, data shows that the number of Chinese international students studying in the United States has declined for four years in a row. In the past academic year, there were 289,000 Chinese students in the U.S., accounting for 27% of all international students in the country. This represents a small 0.2% decrease compared to the previous year.

The data comes from the Open Doors 2023 report recently published by the Institute of International Education (IIE). The report found that the total number of international students in the U.S. reached 1.05 million last year, a 12% increase compared to the year before. Currently, China remains the top source of international students in the U.S., accounting for 27% of all international students. India is next-largest source, accounting for 25% of international students. While the number of Chinese students dropped slightly year-over-year, the number of Indian students rapidly increased, growing by 35%.

The Open Doors report suggested that several factors could be contributing to the decline in Chinese students studying in the U.S., including geopolitical tensions between the two countries and the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on international student mobility over the past few years.

Source: Radio Free Asia, November 22, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/Xinwen/5-11222023124233.html

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Over 3 Million Chinese Take Civil Service Exam in Scramble to Fill Open Government Positions, Setting New Record

There were a record high number of applicants taking this year’s Chinese Civil Service Exam, known as the Guokao. Over 3 million Chinese signed up to take the test, competing for a limited number of job positions the government sector.

On average, there were over 70 candidates competing for every single available position. The most competitive position had 3,572 applicants vying for just 1 opening. Many netizens commented that civil service jobs have become the only viable route for college graduates amid China’s weak economy and grim employment outlook.

Experts say the surge in Guokao applicants is likely tied to post-pandemic economic and hiring difficulties facing China’s private sector. With restaurants forced to slash prices to retain customers and other businesses shutting down, civil service jobs are extremely appealing; they offer stable income and good benefits for life. Some have argued, however, that top talent should not join the government bureaucracy and should instead create value in the private economy.

While economic factors would seem to explain this year’s record high number of exam takers, one researcher cautioned that deeper analysis of candidates’ backgrounds is needed. The increase could also be a “lag effect” from China lifting its zero-COVID policy in 2023.

Besides the record number of Guokao applicants, another noteworthy trend was a reduction in the number of applicants to study at Chinese graduate schools. Chinese youth may now be prioritizing civil service jobs, with all their attendant benefits, over further studies in academia.

Source: Deutsche Welle, November 27, 2023
https://p.dw.com/p/4ZTPO

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China’s Pediatric Wards Overwhelmed by Surge in Childhood Respiratory Illnesses

Taiwan’s Central News Agency reported that respiratory illnesses like mycoplasma pneumonia are currently surging across China, leading to overflowing pediatric wards. Many students are taking sick leave from school. In some areas, nearly half the seats in classrooms are empty, and some schools have temporarily suspended classes entirely due to the high rate of absences.

In Jinan, one parent reported that nearly 50% of the approximately 50 students in their child’s class were out on leave. In Hangzhou, over 20 students in one 36-student elementary school class had fevers, leading to a 2-day class suspension. A Shaoxing elementary school saw over 5 students with fevers above 38 C in one class, prompting a 4-day suspension. An entire class in Taizhou also suspended for 5 days due to students taking leave.

Children are presenting with high fevers upwards of 40C (104 F). The spread of influenza, rhinovirus, Mycoplasma pneumonia, respiratory syncytial virus, adenovirus and other pathogens is hard for parents and students to prevent. Some students have returned from leave only to fall ill again with another virus.

Hospitals have been inundated with pediatric cases. Some images have surfaced on social media of children do their homework while receiving IV treatments. Meanwhile, some localities have prohibited teachers from mandating homework completion for sick students and have advised ill teachers and children not to attend school.

Experts predict that this wave of respiratory disease could continue for some time before improving in the spring when warmer weather arrives. The simultaneous circulation of multiple viruses is making it difficult to accurately forecast the end of the surge.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 28, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202311280381.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

NHK Chinese: Less Than 30 Percent of Japanese Companies Plan to Expand Operations in China

NHK Chinese recently reported on a routine survey by the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO). The survey showed that the number of Japanese companies that believe their business in China will expand in the future has further decreased, falling below 30 percent for the first time since the survey’s inception.

The JETRO annual survey is conducted on Japanese companies investing overseas. The latest result showed that only 27.7 percent of the surveyed companies plan to expand in China within the next one to two years. This figure has fallen rapidly during the past several years — two years ago, 40.9 percent of companies reported plans for expansion in China, and last year the figure was 33.4 percent.

Analysis suggests the following reasons for the decline: China’s economic outlook has become increasingly uncertain; due to the popularity of electric vehicles in China, the market share of Japanese companies that operate in the field of petroleum-fueled vehicles has shrunk.

In this survey, there were a significant increase in the number of Japanese companies that plan to grow their businesses in the Global South, including in India and Brazil. JETRO’s Chairman said that China’s macro economy has slowed down significantly, and that the Chinese market is critical for Japanese companies. Thus, Japanese companies will still need to ensure their presence in the Chinese markets even if they are not optimistic about prospects for business expansion in China.

Source: NHK Chinese, November 21, 2023
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/zh/news/k10014264701000/

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

CBN: 2022 Natural Population Growth Rate was Negative in Twenty Chinese Provinces

Recent data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics shows a decrease in the country’s birth rate and an increase in provinces experiencing negative natural population growth in 2022.

China Business Network (CBN) reported on the new data, which included statistics on the country’s birth rate, death rate and natural population growth rate in 31 provinces. China recorded 9.56 million births in 2022, a decrease of 1.06 million compared with 2021. The birth rate was 6.77 per thousand (6.77‰), a decrease of 0.75 per thousand from 2021. In 2022, the birth rate in nine provinces exceeded eight per thousand (8‰). In 20 provinces, the natural population growth rate was negative. That’s seven provinces more than in the previous year.

According to the official data, Guangdong has been the largest province in terms of births for five consecutive years. Guangdong Province had a birth population of 1.052 million in 2022, making it the only province in China that had an annual birth population exceeding 1 million in each of the years 2020, 2021, and 2022.

Meanwhile, Henan Province, which currently has the largest registered population of any province in China, had a natural growth rate of -0.08‰ last year. This was the first time since 1961 that the Henan’s natural population growth rate has been negative. Data released by the Henan Provincial Bureau of Statistics showed that the number of births in the province decreased by 60,000 compared with 2021.

China’s rate of first-child births has dropped by 51.3 percent over the past six years. In 2022, the number of first-child births in China was 4.41 million, the number of second-child births was 3.72 million, and the number of third-or-later child births was 1.43 million.

Source: CBN, November 20, 2023
https://m.yicai.com/news/101908004.html

Briefings | | |   Social Stability