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China’s Reaction to Trump’s Election Win

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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Sing Tao Daily: At Least 30 Generals Involved in Rocket Force Corruption Case

China recently announced the removal of nine senior generals of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from the National People’s Congress for their involvement in the Rocket Force’s corruption case. Three Lieutenant Generals were among the indicted: former Air Force Commander Ding Laihang, and former Commanders and Commisar of the Rocket Force Li Yuchao and Zhou Yaning.

Hong Kong-based Sing Tao Daily reported that the involved people also include former Defense Minister General Li Shangfu and General Wei Fenghe, as well as over 30 generals, and many more officers at the divisional level and above.

Source: Sing Tao Daily, December 31, 2023
http://tinyurl.com/4bnss7r7

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Government/Politics

DW Chinese: China’s December Manufacturing PMI Hit Six-Month Low

Deutsche Welle Chinese Edition recently reported that, according to official data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in December was 49.0 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. China’s PMI has been declining for three consecutive months and has now hit a new six-month low. The PMI was also below the Reuter’s estimated median forecast of 49.5 percent.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics said that the decline in manufacturing PMI was affected by factors such as the low production rates of some raw materials during the off-season. Some economists expressed the belief that China must take government action to increase support for the economy, lest the trend of slow growth should continue. Analysts expect the central bank to lower interest rates and the bank reserve requirement ratio (RRR) during the coming weeks.

The data from the Bureau of Statistics also showed that, in December, the new orders sub-index of the PMI was 48.7 percent, a decrease of 0.7 percentage from the previous month. This indicates that demand in the manufacturing market has declined. The employment sub-index was 47.9 percent, a decrease of 0.2 percentage from the previous month, indicating that employment in manufacturing has declined. The Bureau’s senior statistician said that the external environment (referring to China’s relationship with other countries) is “increasingly complex, severe, and uncertain.” He added that the reduction of overseas orders and insufficient effective domestic demand are the main difficulties facing Chinese companies.

Source: DW Chinese, December 31, 2023
http://tinyurl.com/2ccpp5mr

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

CNA: The U.S. Became South Korea’s Largest Export Market

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that, in December 2023, South Korea’s exports to the United States exceeded its exports to China for the first time in 20 years.

Amid tensions over global economic security and technology supply chains, this is an important sign of changes in international relations. According to South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, South Korea’s December 2023 exports to the U.S. and to China were US$11.3 billion and US$10.9 billion, respectively. South Korea’s overall export volume increased at an annual rate of 5.1 percent. South Korea’s overall import value fell by 10.8 percent compared with the same period last year, and the trade surplus expanded to US$4.5 billion.

Although single-month data is not enough to prove that there has been a long-term shift in trading patterns, this change can still be taken as a reflection of the economic challenges facing China. In the meantime, the United States has been trying to win support from its allies to reduce global supply chain dependence on China and to limit Beijing’s access to advanced semiconductor technology. South Korea has forged closer ties with the United States under President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Source: CNA, January 1, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202401013004.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Xinhua: North Korea Claims South Korea Misjudged its Military Activity

Xinhua reported that Kim Yo Jong of North Korea has claimed that South Korea misjudged North Korea’s military movements. The following is a translation of the report.

According to the report from the Korean Central News Agency (North Korean media), Kim Yo Jong, Vice Chairman of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, made a statement on January 7, pointing out that South Korea has made a misjudgment and speculative assumptions about the movements of the North Korean military.

The report stated that South Korea claimed that North Korea fired shells northwest of Yonpyeong Island on the afternoon of January 6, and that the shells fell in the western sea area north of the “Northern Limit Line.” Kim Yo Jong of North Korean responded to this claim in the statement, saying that the North Korean military had in fact detonated explosives simulating the sound of coastal artillery. North Korea’s purpose was to observe South Korea’s reaction.

Kim Yo Jong said that South Korea mistook the explosive sound for artillery fire, took the sounds as provocative shelling, and falsely claimed that the impact point was in the sea buffer zone north of the “Northern Limit Line” in the western sea area.

Kim Yo Jong also warned that even if South Korea makes a small provocation, the North Korean military will immediately respond with “shelling.”

According to another report by Yonhap News Agency (South Korean media) on January 7, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff dismissed Kim Yo Jong’s remarks as just “low-level psychological warfare” denigrating the detection capabilities of the South Korean military. He stated that if North Korea provokes South Korean territory and national security, the South Korean military will respond resolutely and decisively based on the principles of “immediate, strong, and thorough countermeasures.”

There have been persistent disagreements between the two Koreas over the demarcation of the western sea area of the Korean Peninsula. South Korea has delineated a maritime boundary called the “Northern Limit Line” between the “West Sea Five Islands,” including Yonpyeong Island, and the western coast of North Korea, which North Korea does not recognize.

Source: Xinhua, January 7, 2024
http://www.news.cn/world/20240107/8c243d2644a54e719a9956b811cdcfb4/c.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

Xinhua: China Sanctions Five U.S. Defense Companies

The following in an official announcement from Xinhua:

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, January 7 – The spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to questions from reporters on January 7 regarding countermeasures against the United States’ sale of weapons to the Taiwan region and [U.S.] sanctions against Chinese entities. The spokesperson stated that China has decided to impose sanctions on five U.S. military-industrial enterprises.

A reporter asked: Recently, the U.S. has announced a new round of arms sales to Taiwan and imposed sanctions on Chinese companies and individuals under various pretexts. China has stated that it will take countermeasures. Could the spokesperson please say what specific measures have been taken by China?

The spokesperson said that the U.S. openly violated the One-China principle and the three Sino-U.S. joint communiqués, especially the provisions of the “August 17” communiqué, by selling weapons to the Taiwan region and implementing illegal unilateral sanctions against Chinese companies and individuals under various pretexts. This seriously damages China’s sovereignty and security interests, severely disrupts the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait, and seriously infringes on the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies and individuals. China strongly protests and firmly opposes this, and has lodged solemn representations with the U.S. side.

The spokesperson stated that in response to the severe wrongful actions of the U.S. side, in accordance with the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law of the People’s Republic of China, China has decided to impose sanctions on five U.S. military-industrial enterprises, including BAE Systems Land and Armament, Alliant Techsystems Operation, AeroVironment, ViaSat, and Data Link Solutions. The measures include freezing movable and immovable property in China, and prohibiting organizations and individuals in China from engaging in transactions, cooperation, and other activities with those companies.

“I want to emphasize that the Chinese government’s determination to defend national sovereignty, security, territorial integrity, and the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises and citizens is unwavering. We urge the U.S. side to earnestly abide by the One-China principle and the provisions of the three Sino-U.S. joint communiqués, adhere to international law and the basic norms of international relations, stop arming Taiwan, and cease illegal unilateral sanctions against China. Otherwise, [the U.S.] will inevitably face China’s resolute and powerful counterattacks,” the spokesperson said.

Source: Xinhua, January 7, 2024
https://h.xinhuaxmt.com/vh512/share/11846107

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military US-China Relations

Guangming Daily: China and Latin America’s Activities in 2023

Guangming Daily, a major mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP), reviewed the development in the relationships between China and Latin American countries in 2023:

In 2023 there were many high-level exchanges between China and Latin American countries. Leaders from ten countries paid visits to China: Brazil, Honduras, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, Barbados, Suriname, Cuba, and Uruguay. President Xi Jinping met with the Presidents of Mexico and Peru in San Francisco, USA. China established diplomatic relations with Honduras, elevated bilateral relations with Venezuela to the status of “all-weather strategic partnership,” with Colombia and Nicaragua to “strategic partnerships,” and with Uruguay to “comprehensive strategic partnership.” China also deepened its cooperation with Cuba under the banner of “building a shared destiny.”

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held exchanges with Latin-American political parties. [Representatives of] many Latin-American political parties attended the high-level dialogue between the CCP and the world’s political parties in March, 2023; China and Cuba held their fifth communist theory conference in Beijing in April; and China held the third China-Latin America Poverty Reduction and Development Forum in July.

From January to October 2023, trade between China and Latin America reached 2.835 trillion yuan (US$ 390 billion), a 6 percent increase from the same period during the previous year. Chinese companies actively invested in Latin America, particularly in the fields of new energy and the digital economy. On May 11, China and Ecuador signed a free trade agreement. From May 30 to June 2, China and Peru held their fifth round of negotiations for the upgrade of the China-Peru Free Trade Agreement. On July 4, China and Honduras launched negotiations for a free trade agreement. On August 31, China signed a free trade agreement with Nicaragua, making Nicaragua China’s fifth free trade partner in the Latin American region. In addition, China initiated free trade agreement negotiations with El Salvador last year, and negotiations with Uruguay are also underway.

Honduras joined the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2023; it is the 22nd Latin American country in the BRI circle. Countries like Cuba, Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay signed specific cooperation plans with China. Latin American nations actively participated in the third BRI Cooperation Summit Forum, with the President of Chile attending the forum three times consecutively. By September 2023, China implemented over 200 infrastructure projects in Latin America, including roads, railways, light rails, schools, hospitals, sports venues, bridges, tunnels, airports, ports, and power facilities.

China and Latin American countries, all being developing nations, collaborated extensively in addressing international issues, global challenges, and promoting the reform of the global governance system. Close coordination between China and Brazil supported Argentina in joining the BRICS family (Editor’s Note: this article was written before Argentina officially announced that it would not join BRICS). Latin American countries actively supported the “Three Major Global Initiatives” (Editor’s Note: this refers to Xi Jinping’s Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative), with several countries joining the “Friends of the Global Development Initiative” group. China and Latin American countries actively consulted and reached broad consensus in addressing hot issues such as the Ukraine crisis and the Israel-Palestine conflict. China supported Brazil’s bid for the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2025, and advocated for the establishment of a “Climate Compensation Fund” for vulnerable economies in Latin America.

Source: Guangming Daily, December 26, 2023
https://news.gmw.cn/2023-12/26/content_37051988.htm

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

Xinhua Commentary: The Closer South Korea Is to NATO, The Further it is from Being Safe

Xinhua published a commentary on South Korea’s growing closer to the NATO alliance. It blamed NATO for “causing division and chaos” in the world. The follow are excerpts from the commentary:

In recent years, NATO has extended its reach into the Asia-Pacific, using tactics such as drumming up security anxiety to attract countries like South Korea and Japan, steadily increasing its power projection in the region.

Regarding the U.S.-led “shift of NATO into the Asia-Pacific,” the South Korean government appears to be compliant. NATO’s global disruptions, originating from the Cold War, are well-known. As a Cold War relic, NATO still adheres to zero-sum and confrontational thinking, constantly seeking geographical and operational expansion under U.S. leadership, repeatedly provoking martial conflicts.

Since the end of the Cold War, wherever NATO extends its influence, it causes division and chaos: bombing the Southern Alliance, launching the Afghanistan War in the name of “counterterrorism,” invading Iraq, bombing Libya, escalating the Ukraine crisis — all these have resulted in severe disasters for local populations.

As the world’s largest military organization, NATO fundamentally serves as a tool for U.S. hegemony. NATO’s aggressive expansion into the Asia-Pacific seeks to replicate its strategies of provocation and confrontation from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region, posing numerous harms without bringing any benefits. The South Korean government should recognize that continuously strengthening cooperation with NATO is akin to “inviting the wolf into the house.” NATO’s eastward expansion in the Asia-Pacific will only stir regional tensions, triggering confrontations or even a “new Cold War” or “new hot war.” This expansion goes against current trends, it reverses the course of history, and it is not in the interest of the people.

Source: Xinhua, January 3, 2024
http://www.news.cn/world/20240103/b2c6fe7f947542268f4d3d1d89a91f64/c.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

China Faces Food Supply Risks

China is intensifying efforts to address food security concerns. Following recent discussions at the Central Economic Work Conference and the “San Nong” (agriculture, rural areas, farmers) work conference, Xi Jinping stressed that the local party and government organs share “joint responsibility for food security.”

China has officially claimed that its supply of staple foods exceeds 100 percent self-sufficiency and is “absolute secure.” However, “staple foods” typically refer to only rice and wheat. China still imports significant amounts of other essential grains including corn, sorghum, and legumes. A report from the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has warned of a potential grain gap of 130 million tons by the end of the “14th Five-Year Plan” period (2021-2025), with a cereal gap of about 25 million tons. A report from the China Macroeconomic Forum last year indicated that “more than one-third of all food [consumed in China] is now reliant on imports.” China’s food self-sufficiency rate has declined over the past 20 years, dropping from 93.6 percent in 2000 to the current rate of 65.8 percent. The rate for soybeans was 62.4 percent in 2000 and has since fallen to 16.6 percent.

China’s network of food imports is dependent on a few countries, primarily the United States. Beijing no doubt sees this as a geopolitical risk. To diversify imports, China seeks to “enhance cooperation” with over 140 countries.

China’s second strategic worry is the vulnerability of the sea-based food transportation routes on which it relies. As of 2023, the majority of food imported to China traveled through the Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca (which connects the Indian Ocean with the South China Sea). Transport through the Suez Canal is currently disrupted by Houthi military activity in the Red Sea, forcing ships bound for China to travel a much longer route circumnavigating Africa. A sea blockade at the Strait of Malacca would cause further delays or disruption to China’s food import network.

Source: Voice of America, December 26, 2023
https://www.voachinese.com/a/7412613.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics